Spring Severe Storm/Tornado Season Just Gives Vermont Some Rain, Maybe A Rumble, And A Bad Mud Season

This patch of woods near my St. Albans, Vermont house
is actually nice to wander through but not now. I'd probably
sink in mud to my knees as Vermont is experiencing a mud
season much worse than average.

UPDATE 3:30 p.m. 

Some of the showers and storms in Vermont could be just a little more rambunctious this evening than earlier forecasts suggested.

Some clearing developed this afternoon in northern New York and parts of Vermont. 

The expected strong to severe thunderstorms developing in Pennsylvania and southwestern New York might hold together a little better than previous thought. That's because of the added instability the sun's heat added to the atmosphere.

That means there could be isolated instances of severe wind gusts with storms, probably in areas limited to southwestern Vermont and eastern New York.

By the time the bulk of that weather gets near Vermont the sun will have set. That means the air will be stabilizing, lowering the chances of anything interesting in eastern Vermont. Also, relatively cold air is hanging tough this afternoon east of the Green Mountains, and that cold air would tend to squelch storms.

I'll emphasize that if there are strong wind gusts with any storms west of the Green Mountains, it won't be widespread.  Brief heavy downpours could also occur this evening here and there. There could also be a few decent lightning bolts this evening west of the Greens.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

A few tornadoes and areas of flash flooding hit parts of the South again yesterday, part of the normal spring ritual of severe weather gaining power the more we march into spring.  

Another, bigger round of severe storms is expected Monday through Wednesday from Texas to Georgia.

Up here in Vermont we usually, blessedly miss out on the effects of these dangerous storms. More often than not, the parent storm causing the scary weather in the Midwest and South is weakening by the time it gets here. 

We end up with just blah weather most of the time with these systems.

There's exceptions, of course. The storm that caused the record breaking, super outbreak of tornadoes on April 26-27, 2011 unleashed a highly damaging flood and some severe storms in central and northern Vermont, for instance. 

This time, we're going with the usual pattern of not having anything too consequential in Vermont.  We'll still feel some of these storms effects, though. 

Today, the chances of severe weather are pretty far north and east, especially for this time of year. An area centered on eastern Pennsylvania, western New Jersey and southwestern New York is under the gun for severe storms and possible a couple of tornadoes.

This continues a trend of an increasing frequency of severe weather in the Northeast.  The good news for us up here in Vermont is none of today's expected supercells in and around Pennsylvania are expected to reach us.

We can expect some springlike showers, though.  A warm front was whipping northward through Vermont early this morning, throwing some showers and a few brief embedded downpours our way. The early morning raw feel to the air will disappear with this first round of showers, too 

The rest of the day will have more of a late April feel, instead of mid-March.  Most of us will warm nicely into the 50s and the air will have almost a humid feel to it. 

Showers will be few and far between through most of the day, so it will actually be kind of nice.  The remains of those severe thunderstorms down in Pennsylvania and New York will make it into Vermont this evening with some more scattered downpours and maybe a rumble or two of thunder. 

Sunday will be a bit unsettled as well, with clouds and some lighter showers around.

All this warm weather coming at once, plus the rain, is creating a mud season even more horrendous than usual in Vermont this year.  Cold spells in January allowed frost to penetrate into the ground more deeply than in most recent years.

The top layers of that frost in the ground has melted, but the melting hasn't extended all the way through the frost layer yet. So the water is trapped in the upper layers of soil, turning back roads into impassable mud mires.

This would have been easier had we experienced the usual nightly freezes this time of year. But in many parts of Vermont, it's been at or above freezing since Monday afternoon.  If you live on a Vermont dirt road, I'm sorry. For everyone else, keep your travel to paved roads for now. 

The next severe weather outbreak early next week will send another dying storm our way, which means some wet snow and rain for the second half of the upcoming week. At this point, it once again appears to be no blockbuster for us.