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| Saturday's storm was over this morning in St. Albans, Vermont, leaving behind blue skies and snow laden trees to keep things blindingly bright. |
But just like weather forecasts, the devil is in the details with any post-storm analysis.
Initial forecasts several days before the storm hit called for a blockbuster. Up to 20 inches of snow could have fallen, and winds could have been enough to produce a blizzard.
As we got closer and closer to Saturday, it became more apparent that this storm wouldn't be historic. Just a pain in the butt. The storm proved less ferocious as it moved through.
Still, forecasts 12 hours ahead of the storm were fairly close to reality. Most places reported 5 to 10 inches of snow, which in general was about one to three inches shy of predicted amounts. The immediate shore of Lake Champlain and in parts of southern Vermont, had lower amounts. That was generally in line with forecasts prior to the storm.
The snow came to an earlier end than I expected in western Vermont, away from the mountains. The storm center itself started getting its act together later than expected. The problem was the storm riding up the coast was expected to merge with a disturbance coming in from the west.
This "phasing," as its called between the two systems, would have energized and strengthened the storm faster. But the phasing came later than forecast. The storm only began to crank up as it began its departure toward Canada.
By the time the storm crossed the International Border, it finally got fierce. About 113,000 people were without power in Nova Scotia last night. Wind gusted to 69 mph in Halifax.
The result was that winds overnight were not as strong as feared, and temperatures didn't get quite as low as forecast. There weren't as many power outages as many feared which is a good thing.
Interestingly, power outages at mid morning today, with the sun out, have reached a peak, with about 800 outages, mostly in Lamoille and Franklin counties. Parts of those areas kept snowing overnight, and the sun is now causing snow laden branches to pop upward as the snow melts off them in the sun.
There was areas of blowing snow and bad roads overnight, but it wasn't at all blizzardy in most places.
Except maybe the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains. Those areas were expected to keep the snow going all night and that's exactly what happened. The main forcing to produce snow in Vermont was gone by evening.
But wet northwest winds were forced to rise up the slopes of the Greens. Rising air means snow, and there you go.
As expected, snow kept cranking all night along the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains. Early reports of snow totals in this zone include just under two feet at Jay Peak, 17 inches in Eden and 13.5 inches at Walden.
The only major remaining danger from the departed storm is the composition of the snowpack now in the higher elevations. There is some risk of avalanches in steep back-country havens like Smuggler's Notch and the High Peaks of the Adirondacks today.
The bottom line is, March is a month that seems to bring epic snowstorms to Vermont. Not this time. I'll have a post later today on some of those past epic snowstorms.
Moving forward, we can plan on a break from any big storms for a few days.
Today will have a mix of sun and clouds, and it will stay cold, with highs in the 20s, with some low 30s in the banana belt towns.
Thawing will set in tomorrow, then it will be partly interrupted by a cold front Monday night. We'll see some rain showers changing to snow showers overnight, but accumulations of both rain and snow will be light.
The last half of the week will be on the warm side, with some 50s still likely Thursday. A lot of the snow we received Saturday will disappear quickly over the next week.
The next chance of a decent size storm is next Friday night or Saturday. At this point, that one looks like it will be mostly rain, and not a blockbuster storm. More of a mid-sized thing.
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