Another Vermont Break: Severe Storms, Flooding Mostly Didn't Materialize. So, What's Next?N

Stormy, volatile looks skies over St. Albans, Vermont
last evening, but severe weather and flash flooding
mostly did not materialize in the Green Mountain
State on Sunday, despite forecasts to the contrary

Yesterday, we went through our second threat of severe, damaging weather in Vermont within three days, and once again, we largely escaped trouble.  

Maybe I feel a little like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, but not really. First of all, we should be grateful there wasn't much in the way of damaging storms or high water. Secondly, weather almost always surprises, despite our nation's supposed meteorological prowess. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

 I also think National Weather Service forecasting has deteriorated a little thanks to Trump's DOGE cuts to this critically important agency, but I'm still waiting on the studies that prove it. This is not a criticism of the meteorologists working at the NWS. It's a criticism of the government that's running it. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

There were a couple trouble spots last night. The National Weather Service had to issue a flash flood warning for the Green Mountains roughly between Rutland and White River Junction. Numerous small roads off of Route 4 near Killington became impassable overnight due to washouts and flooding. Up to four inches of rain was reported in the area. 

A flood advisory was still in effect early this morning over in northern New Hampshire. 

The rain was substantial in northern Vermont, but definitely less than feared. I don't have much in the way of reports yet, but I'm sure forecasts of over an inch of rain near the Canadian border came true. At least in a few spots. But the localized three inch totals probably didn't happen

There were no severe thunderstorms Sunday in Vermont that I'm aware of. I think the skies were too cluttered with clouds and showers during the morning and afternoon to produce the storms. Temperatures across much of central and northern Vermont held in the low to mid 70s under the clouds, not the 80s that had been predicted.

That meant less energy and less instability for severe storms. Almost all the severe weather stayed clustered in the Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the Mid-Atlantic states. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Now that our Sunday storm is done, we can look forward to some decent weather for the next couple of days before the next system arrives later in the week.

We'll go with partly sunny skies after clouds clear out this morning.  Broader valleys will be sunniest this afternoon as a few instability clouds litter the blue skies over the Green Mountains. Highs will be i the 70s. Tomorrow will pretty much be a carbon copy to today. 

We'll start getting back into the clouds and shower risks on Wednesday, but the day won't be a washout. Highs will reach the 70s to around 80.

Thursday looks like an interesting day from a meteorological perspective, but - fingers crossed - I suspect Vermont might dodge more bullets. No promises yet, but so far, it looks OK. 

A pretty strong storm  for this time of  year- one that you usually see in the winter, not summer - should originate around Colorado or Wyoming tomorrow. It will race east to a spot somewhere near Minnesota or Wisconsin on Wednesday. Then it will continue blasting generally eastward, arriving in southeastern Ontario or southern Quebec Thursday. 

The storm seems almost guaranteed to bring a nasty swath of severe thunderstorms and maybe tornadoes in the Midwest Wednesday and Mid-Atlantic States Thursday. 

On this path, Vermont would be in the sweet spot. We'd be close enough to the storm center so that the severe storms wouldn't get quite this far north. The heaviest rain would fall in Quebec. And besides, whether you're in Quebec or Vermont, the storm will blast through so quickly that we wouldn't get enough rain to create much flooding. 

I do give a caveat, as there is a risk some severe storms could sneak into Vermont, especially the south, but so far, so good. 

The storm will probably give us a decent dousing of rain. And since it will be an unusually strong storm, gusty non-thunderstorm winds might bring down a few isolated trees, branches or power lines. 

This is all early guesses. I'll have more when we get closer to the event. 

We're falling into a cool, unsettled weather pattern that will probably last until near the end of the month. Such a pattern features somewhat below normal temperatures most days. It also features frequent chances of showers, but overall rainfall after Thursday shouldn't really be all that heavy. 

Meteorological Spring Began Saturday. Doesn't Feel Like It Now, But...

If NOAA's seasonal forecast is right, chance lean
toward a generally warm spring here in Vermont 

We did the February weather summary in Saturday's post, and now we can also take a look at Vermont's meteorological winter, and what spring might look like. 

Meteorological winter runs from December 1 through February 28- except of course in Leap Years, when it's February 29.

Meteorological spring goes from March 1 through May 31.  The seasons are divided this way mostly just to make it easier for climatologists to compare seasons. 

While each winter month in Vermont was wildly different from each other - for instance, January was super dry and December and February were a little on the wet side - the winter of 2024-25 worked out to be right around average, as measure in Burlington, anyway.

The average temperature for the three months was 23.8, which is just 0.2 degrees cooler than the average of the years 1990-2020.  

As I always do, I'll note that the 1990-2020 average is warmer than the 20th century average, because climate change had notably taken over by then.  Had the winter of 2024-25 actually then place in the mid-20th century, it would have been considered a warmer than average winter. 

Also at Burlington, precipitation from December 1, 2024 through February 28, 2025 amounted to 6.31 inches. That's a mere 0.09 inches below average - essentially normal.

The winter outlook for our region, released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last October 17 indicated chances skewed slightly toward a warm winter in Vermont, and there were equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. So they were pretty close. 

For what it's worth, the spring outlook has been released. Predictions lean toward a warm spring across the South and up the eastern seaboard, including here in Vermont. If this forecast works out the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies would have a cool spring. 

For us here in Vermont, NOAA has equal chances of it being wet or dry, with maybe a slight lean toward being on the wetter side. 

Hurricane Milton Departed Florida Early This Morning, Leaving An Incredible Mess Behind

The fury and intense rains of Hurricane Milton in
Tampa, Florida last night. Photo by Julio Cortez AP

To nobody's surprise, much of Florida is trashed this morning, raked by powerful Hurricane Milton which crossed the state west to east overnight. 

The hurricane made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, a barrier island just off the coast of South Sarasota, at around 8:30 p.m. Wednesday with top winds of 120 mph.  

It exited into the Atlantic Ocean near Cape Canaveral with top winds of around 85 mph shortly before 5 a.m. today. 

It was simultaneously horrifying and fascinating to watch events unfold in Florida as Hurricane Milton approached the state, moved ashore, then through the peninsula. 

We're only just beginning to understand the extent of damage, and we don't have a reliable death toll yet, but we do know Hurricane Milton proved fatal to some people. 

At least 3 million homes were without power this morning in Florida.

There's a lot going on and a lot of updates. I'll get to some of them in this morning's post and will do more posts today as warranted .

TAMPA/ST. PETE

There was good news and bad news as the events unfolded, and sometimes good news turned into bad news. 

A few hours before landfall, it appeared Hurricane Milton might hit near Tampa Bay, which would have caused a worst case scenario storm surge in the bay, which is surrounded by intense urban development. 

Shortly before landfall, Milton made a leftward jog, so it made landfall perhaps 25 miles south of Tampa, preventing much of a storm surge in the bay.   

However, that put Tampa and St. Petersburg in the most intense northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton, which gave them a ferocious windstorm and an even more intense wall of rainfall. They never got a break from the eye of the storm, either, because that passed to the south of the two cities. 

Tampa had close to a foot of rain with Milton. St. Petersburg reported a whopping 18.54 inches.  At 9 p.m., St. Petersburg reported winds of 49 mph gusting to 91 mph with 5.09 inches of rain in just the previous hour. 

Video from downtown Tampa showed absolutely zero visibility it was raining so hard. By my estimation, visibility would be better in the most intense Vermont blizzard you can imagine than it was in Tampa, because it was raining so hard. 

As you can guess, flooding is incredibly serious in and near Tampa and St. Petersburg, despite the lack of a major storm surge. 

The roof of Tropicana Field in Tampa blew off. The stadium
had been being used as a staging area for National 
Guard troops and electrical repair crews. 

There heavy rain crossed the entire state to the Atlantic Coast, where Vero Beach reported 9.1 inches of rain. 

.In downtown St. Petersburg, a large crane from a construction site fell onto a building housing the Tampa Bay Times newspaper.

Max Chesnes, a reporter at the paper, posted on X:

"A crane is blocking the road and several stories up, smoke billows out of the building from it appears the crane fell. Smell of gas in the air and you can hear alarms."

The roof of Tropicana Field which normally houses the Tampa Bay Rays blew off.  The structure was meant to be a shelter and staging area for National Guard troops and electrical workers who are in the area to help and to start restoring power. Nobody was seriously hurt, but I'm unsure what they're going to do now with these workers. 

SARASOTA AND ELSEWHERE

In Sarasota, winds gusted to 102 mph. The wind was strongest in the second half of the storm, after the eye had passed. Windows were smashed out of high rises by the wind in downtown Sarasota and Bradenton, so there has to be incredible water damage inside those buildings from all the wind driven rain that came in. 

Near where Hurricane Milton made landfall and points south, there was some pretty horrible storm surges. That was something that forecasters had expected, but it's terrible nonetheless. 

As of early this morning, I don't have a lot of information on storm surge damage. That was going to be assessed as daylight arrived, so detailed reports weren't in yet as of 7:30 a.m today. 

We do know that in Sarasota, right after the calm eye passed, winds picked up to those near 100 mph gusts and a storm surge immediately shoved into the city, including at least parts of downtown. NBC News reported a ten foot storm surge around Sarasota. 

Wind and water have since calmed down almost completely in Sarasota, but the county government is continuing to tell people to shelter in place, as it's still to dangerous to go out with all the debris and lingering flooding. 

Rescue crews were just beginning to head out to likely devastated barrier islands and low lying area of Bradenton, Sarasota, Venice, Punta Gorda, Fort Myers and other communities likely slammed by storm surges. 

 Another odd thing about Hurricane Milton was the intense tornado outbreak during the day Wednesday as the storm's outer rain bands moved through.  There were no fewer than 136 tornado warnings issued in Florida Wednesday. So far at least 45 tornadoes have been confirmed. 

Some of the them were strong, Midwestern-style twisters that caused a lot of damage and reportedly caused some deaths in a neighborhood near Fort Pierce.

As noted, assessments of how bad things got were only just beginning this morning. I'm hoping as we learn more details it turns out to be not as bad as feared. Fingers crossed.  

Weekend Tornado Outbreak Was Much Bigger Than Usual; Death Toll Fortunately Was Not

The big tornado outbreak in the Plains this past weekend is over, but it was such an impressively  large outbreak - and in some respects a strange one - that it needs one more look-see.   

Red and orange shaded areas of this map are where
meteorologists ahead of time said tornadoes were
most likely this past Saturday. Red dots are where
tornadoes actually touched down Other dots are
damaging wind and and hail reports. 

The weekend death toll of 5 is undoubtedly tragic, but is incredibly low considering how powerful may of the tornadoes are and how many of them hit populated areas. 

It was a testament to the great warning system we have for such storms in the United States. In this case, that system worked quite well, despite the number of strong to intense tornadoes associated with this outbreak. 

According to ustornadoes.com, about 4  percent of all tornadoes are EF3, with winds of 136 to 165 mph.  Only 1 percent of tornadoes are EF4. Those have winds of 166 to 200 mph.

  A tiny number 0.1 percent of all tornados are the ultimate monster EF5s, with scouring winds of more than 200 mph. 

No fewer than eight tornadoes in the outbreak were EF3s. One was an EF4, where it trashed a huge Dollar Tree distribution center and tossed cars and trucks into the air along Interstate 35, killing one person.

 It was the first time in about 13 months that an EF4 was reported in the United States, the third longest period of time since 1871 between such violent twisters. 

This tornado count might go up as the storm damage is assessed. 

As of this morning, there were 173 tornado reports from Friday and Saturday. As is the usual case, only a small percentage were EF3s, but this is an impressive outbreak. 

WARNINGS WORK

After many tornado outbreaks, I hear witnesses say "there was no warning," or "it came out of nowhere" despite the fact there were warnings.  Those warnings didn't get through for whatever reason. Disaster experts are alway trying to figure out the best way to convey warnings so people actually receive them, and act on them.

Whatever everybody did over the weekend worked.

"I definitely think the systems out here did a great job of plenty of forewarning. The sirens went off multiple times before the tornadoes touched ground. Our news station did a great job of covering where the weather was and where the weather was going. Our phone alert systems were all going off," Bryanna Kneeland told Fox Weather, describing her experiences in hard-hit Elkhorn, Nebraska.  

It sounds like emergency managers considered the time of day in deciding how to take action, too.  

Kneeland went on: "....it hit around 3:45 in the afternoon when people would normally be coming home from work and children would normally be coming home from school. And the schools were all in lockdown. They did not let the students leave the building. A lot of workplaces were in lockdown. They would not let people leave."

It's much safer to be in a substantial building than in cars, trucks or buses on the streets during a tornado, so these lockdowns were smart. 

Kneeland was at work and her employer ordered her to stay put during the tornado emergency. Her husband was at home and their house was destroyed in the tornado. But he had received the warnings and was in the basement when the tornado hit. He was unharmed. 

 Elkhorn residents had 34 minutes warning that the tornado was headed their way, which is a fantastic lead time for tornado weather. 

The National Weather Service also put a bug in the ears of Oklahoma residents six days before the outbreak that tornadoes were likely. That got people in the right frame of mind to think about what they would do if they received a tornado warning. This long range forecast probably inspired people to have a plan. 

Forecasts in the day or two before the tornadoes began were super accurate. The tornadoes hit almost exclusively where meteorologists had said they would occur in the two or three days leading up to the tornadoes. 

Tornado deaths are more common at night, when people are not paying as much attention to warnings and you can't readily see twisters coming.  Four of the five tornado deaths were in Oklahoma, where the strongest tornadoes hit after dark. 

This, by the way, isn't climate change at work.  There have always been tornado outbreaks like this.  Climate change has tended to encourage tornadoes to form further east in the United States than they use to.

However, this outbreak focused mostly on the "traditional" tornado alley in the southern and central Plains. 

IT'S NOT OVER

Tornado watches were up late this afternoon in the same parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas that dealt with the destructive storms Friday and Saturday. A few more tornadoes could strike Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow.

The overall weather pattern for the next few days is favorable for these severe storms over the next several days. It is, after all, the peak of tornado season. 

As awful as last weekend was, we could have more deaths and more destruction in the  coming weeks.

 

Sunday's Vermont Post-Mortem: Overall Forecast Was Accurate. But A Bit Of An Over-Performer

Snowfall forecast issued Saturday afternoon, more than
eight hours before the snowstorm began. 

I know all eyes are on the very nasty storm due here in Vermont tonight, but I also like to assess how outfits like the National Weather Service did in forecasting the last storm. 

As we drew closer and closer to the storm, the predicted snowfall totals kept rising as well. 

By the time we got to the night before the storm, it looks like forecasters had a great handle on where the most snow would fall. The only inaccuracy worth noting is that some areas got more snow than forecast.

The first map on this page is what the National Weather Service was forecasting on the afternoon of January 6. This is a good eight hours or more before the storm arrived.

As you can see, the southeastern half of Vermont was due for the most snow, while the far north would get the least. Also note the narrow zone of lighter expected snowfall going along extreme western Vermont near the border with New York. 

Actual snowfall on Sunday. It over-performed in 
several parts of Vermont, especially in 
and near Orange County in eastern Vermont. 

The second map on this page shows what actually happened with the storm.  

The biggest surprise was the heavier than expected snow in northeastern Vermont. 

Instead of the Northeast Kingdom missing out on the snow, the area of lighter snow ended up getting displaced eastward into northern New Hampshire. 

Orange County, Vermont, south of St. Johnsbury, was the unexpected winner with this storm. 

The forecast or that area called for six, seven or eight inches of snow, generally speaking. Instead, most of that county got over a foot. There was a report of 22 inches from Groton.  

The forecasted zone of lighter snow in far western Vermont materialized. But even so, northwestern Vermont got a little more snow than forecast. 

Bottom line, the storm was more or less an over-performer.  I'd give forecast accuracy a grade of B.

That's actually very good, as Vermont snowstorms are notoriously hard to forecast. Usually, even the best meteorologists don't usually do as well as they did with Sunday's storm. 

Vermont Storm Assessment And Forecast: It Was Well Predicted. Coming UP: Lots Of Cold, Not Much Storminess

This is the forecast of snowfall of the storm we just had,
issued less than 24 hours before it started. The southeastern
third of Vermont was expected to get roughly four inches of snow
with much less in western Vermont.....

The snow and schmutz we had last night and early this morning is over, leaving behind a low overcast, fog, and drizzle. 

The snow and sleet on the ground is slowly melting. But enough snow fell in eastern Vermont to guarantee a white Thanksgiving. 

Who knows whether there will be a white Christmas, but at least one holiday is snowy for some of us. 

The forecast location of the heaviest snow was spot on. The heaviest snow was expected along and east of the Green Mountains from Route 2 south. That's exactly what happened. 

Total snowfall, though, was a little more than forecast. The zone of heaviest snow was expected to bring three to five inches. However, several places received six inches, or at least close to it. I saw quite a few reports of more than five inches.

A map of actual snowfall from this storm from the 
National Weather Service office in South Burlington.
The location of the heaviest snow was spot on, but 
the amount of snow was a little heavier than forecast.

The snow winners seem to be 6.3 inches in Maidstone, up in the Northeast Kingdom and 6.0 in Ascutney, in southeastern Vermont. 

It really does look like the summits in the Green Mountains have established a snow cover for the winter. Before the storm, the top of Mount Mansfield had three inches on the ground.

 Several inches of additional snow covered the mountain in this storm. The weather is expected to stay fairly cold for the next week or two, so get used to snow covered mountains. Yay!

Going forward, there's not much exciting weather to talk about. Thanksgiving Day will probably be the warmest of the next week and a half at least. But it won't be that warm, as highs will probably only make it to the low 40s at best. 

Small disturbances from the northwest will keep us in a regime of continued colder than normal weather with minor episodes of snow showers. Winter is here. For now,.

For those who are not quite ready for winter, there's hints of warmer weather starting around the second week of December. However, these long range forecasts are notoriously iffy, so don't count on it! 

A Wintry Period In Vermont, But Is A Warmer Reprieve In The Works?

Workers in snowy Taylor Park in St. Albans Thursday
install Christmas lights near a still oddly green 
maple tree. About an inch of snow fell there Thursday.

We survived the first wintry day in Vermont Thursday (I'm not really counting the light snow on November 1) so is this it? Is winter here to stay?  

Indications are, maybe not. We might see a warm reprieve mid month. More on that in a minute. 

The forecasts ahead of the wintry precipitation Thursday ended up being quite accurate. Most places got about an inch of snow, or just a wee bit more than that. This was close to the forecasts of about an inch.

There was a weird localized area of about two inches in and around Burlington, Colchester, Winooski and Essex The official total at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington was 2.0 inches.  I'm not sure why. Those areas aren't usually the snow winners in any storm. 

Video scenes of the snow around St. Albans are at the bottom of this post. 

Temperatures actually stayed fairly mild overnight, as there was no real push of cold air behind the weakening storm that brought Thursday's snow. For most of us, temperatures stayed steady or actually went up a little last evening and overnight. 

Snow that didn't melt during the damp, overcast weather Thursday did so in many valleys last night. The snow cover was pretty, but short lived. 

We're not done with the cold weather, though. Another cold front is coming through later today, and that will keep us on the chilly side for a few days. Today will actually be kind of mild ahead of the front, with highs well into the 40s - about normal for this time of year.

After that, it gets pretty chilly again for a few days. Nothing wildly cold for this time of year, but you'll probably want your winter jackets. Highs Saturday through Monday will be in the 30s, with lows in the 20s. We could see some teens in the colder spots. 

Very little precipitation is in the cards for us over the next few days. There might be a few scattered showers with today's cold front, flurries in spots overnight, that's about it. The next shot of any light precipitation is Tuesday.   

But yeah, not exactly late season gardening weather, huh?  

Forecasts for six to ten days out from now indicate
most of the United States, including us here in
Vermont, are in for a switch to warmer weather. 

But there's hope for those of you (like me!) who haven't gotten their fall outdoor chores done yet. We have increasing signs of a pattern change for mid-month, probably starting later in the upcoming week.

Actually, almost the whole nation looks like it will be quite warm, with the heat centered in the Plains and western Great Lakes. They'll probably see some more record highs out that way in a little over a week or so.

Between climate change and El Nino, it seems hard to have any sustained cold anywhere lately. 

Long range forecasts are iffy but meteorologists seem pretty confident that we in Vermont will share in at least some relatively mild air mid-month.  I'm not yet sure how warm it will get, but it will certainly be toastier than this weekend will be. 

The first week of our potential warmer spell looks mostly dry, too, so you can get out there and get some last minute stuff done. 

Video: Scenes of snow around my house, Jackson the Weather Dog takes careful measurements and readings of the snow, and workers install Christmas lights in St. Albans Taylor Park amid the snow and near a still oddly green maple tree.

To view, click on this link, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Almost All The Reports Are In: Astonishing 40+ Inches Parts Of Southern Vermont

Jackson the Weather Dog, seen between the truck and
the tall snow bank, inspects my snow shoveling 
work after a foot of wet, heavy snow in St. Albans
Vermont over the past two days.

 The snow totals from our departing storm have me absolutely gobsmacked, especially concerning the reports from high elevations along and near the Route 9 corridor between Bennington and Brattleboro.

The Vermont winner in the snow sweepstakes appears to be Readsboro, with a total accumulation of 42.1 inches. A meteorologists who took the Readsboro measurement also says there is now 55 inches of snow on the ground, with the help from previous storms.  

Said meteorologist is a well-known snow lover, so he must be happy. 

Other reports from far southern Vermont are 41.6 inches a little west of West Brattleboro and 41 inches in Landgrove.

While totals weren't that ridiculous in central and northern Vermont, the storm way, way over-performed.  Many places reported more than a foot. Some around two feet. 

Some of the top accumulations in central and north include 31.3 inches in Ludlow, 27 inches in Weston, 26 inches in Danby Four Corners, 25.5 inches in Greensboro, and 24 inches in Warren.

Here at my hacienda in St. Albans, I received 12.2 inches of snow. 

I'm awaiting word for what was the official snow total at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. Total snowfall for Tuesday is listed as missing, which is odd.  They had 4.2 inches of snow today.  I messaged them late this afternoon and am awaiting word back. 

Snow depths are now pretty healthy around Vermont. There's 17 inches of snow on the ground here in St. Albans. Greensboro has 35 inches as of this morning.  Pomfret had 43 inches. 

Clearing skies this evening created this pretty winter
scene in St. Albans, Vermont 

This snowstorm also added a lot of water to the snowpack. Some examples:  Melt down the snow and you get 2.17 inches of "rain" in Underhill, 2.48 inches in Manchester and 2.09 inches in Williston. 

Unfortunately, more than 18,000 homes and businesses were still without power in Vermont as of late this afternoon. Most of them were in southern Vermont, as you might imagine with feet of heavy, wet snow. 

WHAT'S NEXT

Much mellower weather is in store for the next several days, but it won't be precipitation-free.

Snow showers continued today along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, adding to the deep snow somewhat. Those will dwindle tonight. 

It was interesting seeing from my perch in St. Albans. All afternoon, I could see clear skies to my west over New York State. Overhead it was cloudy, but with no precipitation. But you could see snow falling near the mountains a little to my east.

In many warmer valleys, especially in western Vermont, temperatures got into the upper 30s, so we started the inevitable melting process with all this snow.

That will continue, but maybe in fits and starts. 

Tonight is a classic recipe for chilly temperatures. There's lots of fresh snow the ground and skies will clear. Winds should slacken off. Most of us should get into the teens. I wouldn't be surprised to see single number above zero in a few spots that get clear and winds go calm. That's actually not so unusual for mid-March. But it's still cold. 

 Some wet snow showers will be around tomorrow afternoon, but they won't amount to much, especially in the valleys, where temperatures will once again be above freezing

That expected storm Friday into Saturday is still forecast to be mostly rain. That, and more above freezing temperatures, should melt a little more snow. But this won't be enough to cause any real flooding. 

Sunday still looks cold with more snow showers, but possibly terrific sugaring weather is forecast for the first half of next week, with highs in the low 40s and lows in the 20s.

Final Weekend Storm Report: It Wasn't As Rough A Storm As I Expected

Saturday's storm was over this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont, leaving behind blue skies and snow laden
trees to keep things blindingly bright. 

My assessment of yesterday's winter storm in Vermont is it wasn't as bad as forecast.

But just like weather forecasts, the devil is in the details with any post-storm analysis. 

 Initial forecasts several days before the storm hit called for a blockbuster.  Up to 20 inches of snow could have fallen, and winds could have been enough to produce a blizzard.

As we got closer and closer to Saturday, it became more apparent that this storm wouldn't be historic. Just a pain in the butt. The storm proved less ferocious as it moved through.

Still, forecasts 12 hours ahead of the storm were fairly close to reality.   Most places reported 5 to 10 inches of snow, which in general was about one to three inches shy of predicted amounts. The immediate shore of Lake Champlain and in parts of southern Vermont, had lower amounts.  That was generally in line with forecasts prior to the storm.

The snow came to an earlier end than I expected in western Vermont, away from the mountains.  The storm center itself started getting its act together later than expected. The problem was the storm riding up the coast was expected to merge with a disturbance coming in from the west. 

This "phasing," as its called between the two systems, would have energized and strengthened the storm faster. But the phasing came later than forecast. The storm only began to crank up as it began its departure toward Canada. 

By the time the storm crossed the International Border, it finally got fierce. About 113,000 people were without power in Nova Scotia last night. Wind gusted to 69 mph in Halifax. 

The result was that winds overnight were not as strong as feared, and temperatures didn't get quite as low as forecast.  There weren't as many power outages as many feared which is a good thing.

Interestingly, power outages at mid morning today, with the sun out, have reached a peak, with about 800 outages, mostly in Lamoille and Franklin counties. Parts of those areas kept snowing overnight, and the sun is now causing snow laden branches to pop upward as the snow melts off them in the sun. 

There was areas of blowing snow and bad roads overnight, but it wasn't at all blizzardy in most places.

Except maybe the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains.  Those areas were expected to keep the snow going all night and that's exactly what happened.  The main forcing to produce snow in Vermont was gone by evening.

But wet northwest winds were forced to rise up the slopes of the Greens. Rising air means snow, and there you go. 

As expected, snow kept cranking all night along the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains. Early reports of snow totals in this zone include just under two feet at Jay Peak, 17 inches in Eden and 13.5 inches at Walden.

  The only major remaining danger from the departed storm is the composition of the snowpack now in the higher elevations. There is some risk of avalanches in steep back-country havens like Smuggler's Notch and the High Peaks of the Adirondacks today. 

The bottom line is, March is a month that seems to bring epic snowstorms to Vermont. Not this time. I'll have a post later today on some of those past epic snowstorms. 

Moving forward, we can plan on a break from any big storms for a few days. 

Today will have a mix of sun and clouds, and it will stay cold, with highs in the 20s, with some low 30s in the banana belt towns.

Thawing will set in tomorrow, then it will be partly interrupted by a cold front Monday night. We'll see some rain showers changing to snow showers overnight, but accumulations of both rain and snow will be light. 

The last half of the week will be on the warm side, with some 50s still likely Thursday. A lot of the snow we received Saturday will disappear quickly over the next week. 

The next chance of a decent size storm is next Friday night or Saturday.  At this point, that one looks like it will be mostly rain, and not a blockbuster storm. More of a mid-sized thing.

Final Vermont Storm Wrapup. Plus A Gorgeous, Powdery Saturday Leads To A Frigid Night

Map of snow totals from our recently departed snowstorm
closely match forecast maps ahead of the storm, so
kudos to the National Weather Service in South
Burlington. Click on the map to make it bigger
and easier to see.

 The final list is in for snow totals across Vermont, and that list confirms that across the northern three quarters of Vermont or so, amounts are tightly clustered between 11 and 17 inches.

That's unusual, because the path of a storm and its wind field, usually leads to highly variable amounts of snow in most Vermont winter storms.  

This time, the storm itself was weak, so it didn't have much of a wind field to add snow to locations where the wind was climbing the sides of the mountain, or "shadow" areas where wind is forced to roar downhill on the other side of the mountains. 

During this week's storm, a very rich supply of wet air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean was forced to rise over a wall of cold air.  Rising air does enhance precipitation. The wall of cold air was mostly above mountain top level, so there was nothing to make strange snowfall booms and busts. Everybody got in on the action. 

Jackson the Weather Dog could barely peek over the 
heaps of snow left behind by this week's big snowstorm in 
St. Albans, Vermont, Jackson measured a final
snow total of 15.7 inches here in St. Albans. 

It was interesting that the two towns that had the greatest total, 18 inches were Warren, a perennial winner in the winter snow derbies, and Charlotte, a Champlain Valley town that usually misses out on the big storms. 

Unfortunately, far southern Vermont had a much shallower layer of cold air, so they got a bunch of freezing rain an sleet out of this, and not much snow. 

If you look at the map of snowfall totals in this storm, it really closely matches the forecast maps the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued ahead of the storm. Kudos to them!  

I have to say, wasn't today a beauty in Vermont?!?! That clean, deep fresh snow for most of us, those brilliant blue skies, that chilly bite to the air. I'm certifiably crazy and hand shovel my very long driveway.  

Today was so nice that I pretty much took pleasure in the chore, even though my nearly 60 year old body is now tired and a little sore. Worth it though!  I hope you had a nice powder day. 

True, far southern Vermont didn't have snow, but the ice glistening on the trees like crystal sculptures had to be amazing. Today will easily be the nicest day of the winter in Vermont. 

As I've been advertising, clear, calm nights with deep, fresh snow lead to frigid nights. As soon as the sun sets this evening, the temperatures will crash. We'll all be in the single numbers to teens below zero overnight. 

Deep snow and a late afternoon sun played with shadows
and colors in the deep snow in St. Albans, Vermont today

Thankfully, the core of the coldest air will be moving east of us late tonight, so I'm thinking only parts of the Northeast Kingdom will make it into the 20s below.

One other weather hazard to deal with:  In the Champlain Valley and the Islands, south winds will pick up, so we'll have problems with blowing and drifting snow.   That'll be a problem especially around open farmlands and on the islands, where wind will propel snow off of large frozen expanses ofLake Champlain. 

Expect problems with visibility and deep drifts on roads in these areas Sunday afternoon and night.  

Vermont Windstorm Wasn't So Bad: Slightly Weaker Winds Make Huge Difference

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington
put out this map of peak wind gusts from Monday. (Click
on the image to make it bigger and easier to see). Slightly
lighter gusts than predicted in some areas prevented
any big power outages or serious tree damage.

 Frankly, Monday's wind storm in Vermont wasn't as bad as I'd expected.

That's a good thing, of course. However, ahead of Monday's weather system,  I was still being a little overblown, so to speak, on anticipating how strong the winds would get.  Let's just say the Christmas decorations outdoors are still intact.  

Overall, top wind speeds ended up being around  5 to 10 mph less than many forecasts I saw.  That's not a big departure from what was predicted, but it made all the difference. 

I've noticed living in Vermont all these years that generally speaking, you really start to see some power outages and tree damage when wind gusts reach 50 mph or more.  Forecasts had called for gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range, so you'd expect a little trouble.  

Peak wind gusts ended up being mostly in 35 to 45 mph range on Monday, with a few isolated places getting stronger winds than that.  Those winds led to a few scattered, brief outages, but really no biggie.

A couple things happened to minimize the wind, I think.  An inversion, which is a narrow band of air slightly above the surface in which temperatures rose with height, acted as a block or lid. This lid helped prevent high speed winds at elevations of around 5,000  feet from mixing down to the surface.

Out ahead of the storm's strong cold front, rain was light, but a bit more widespread than at least I anticipated. That light rain helped reinforce that inversion.

There was also the risk that convective showers along the cold front, when it came through, would grab some of that high speed wind several thousand feet above us and bring it to the surface.

Those cold front showers did exactly that, and it was pretty gusty when the front came through. But those showers didn't really grab as much wind from aloft as they could have.

Winds continued to gust over 30 mph overnight in many areas, as expected, so it's still pretty blustery out there. The gusts will slowly diminish during the day today.

There's not too much weather excitement in our immediate future. Winter will throw another handful of snowflakes at us tomorrow.  Don't expect more than an inch of accumulation.  Another breezy, warm storm is in the forecast for Friday. It'll probably be somewhat similar to the one we had yesterday.

Generally speaking, long range forecasts call for generally warmer than average temperatures through at least December 20.  There could well be some snowy and/or cold days thrown into the mix during that period, but odds are it will be on the warm side for this time of year.

So far, it seems to be a gentle start to the winter.

 

Climate Assessment For Vermont: Less Snow, More Floods

A climate assessment for the Green Mountain State
shows us more big changes are coming to Vermont
in the coming decades. 

 Vermont is hotter, wetter and has more variable weather than a century ago, thanks to climate change, according to a new climate assessment from the University of Vermont.

The findings are not surprising (at least to me) and match climate data from other sources, but the assessment does serve as a great blueprint on how we will need to navigate further effects from climate change. 

Ski areas will need to adapt to shorter snow seasons. More intense storms means we'll have to continue fortifying ourselves for more intense floods.

Agriculture will also have to deal with that increased risk of excessive rain, with wild jolts into drought occasionally to make things even more complicated. Forests and wildlife will change. 

The report was produced by the University of Vermont's Gund Institute for Environment and released earlier this month.  The whole report is a follow-up to a similar 2014 Gund Institute study. As Seven Days reports, that 2014 assessment was the first in the United States to examine climate change at a state level.  

Two of the key takeaways from the report are that winters are warming faster than the other seasons and snow season is growing shorter. Also, precipitation events are getting heavier, leaving Vermont more prone to flooding. 

Those floods sweep crud, nutrients and silt into rivers, ponds and lakes, which wrecks water quality and increases the chances of algae blooms, some of which can be dangerous and poisonous.

The report tells us that Vermont's average annual temperature has increased by almost 2 degrees since 1900.  Winter temperatures are up 2.5 times faster than the overall annual temperatures over the past 60 years.  The number of very cold nights has decreased by over seven days in the same time period.

Vermont, as we know, is really forested. It will probably remain that way, but your grandchildren will probably see a very different forest when they're old than you do now.  The familiar sugar maples, balsam fir, yellow birch and black oak will be less prevalent than they are now by 2100. In their stead will be more northern red oak, shagbark hickory and black cherry. 

It will be a gradual process, as the older species slowly die out and young new species take over. 

It's also possible climate change will make iconic Vermont species like the common loon and hermit thrush disappear from the state in the coming decades, according to the report.

One finding that stuck out for me is this, from the report's executive summary. Average annual precipitation is up 21 percent since 1900 in general, but is becoming more variable. BUT, as the executive summary states: 

"Vermont is also becoming wetter......However, Vermont still experiences prolonged droughts because of shifts in the water cycle, and different regions of Vermont can experience different climate impacts."

There was a classic example of this during the past summer. Southern Vermont was sopping wet, and experienced damaging floods. At the same time, far northern Vermont was gripped by drought.

 An interesting note in the climate report is something I've brought up previously. The effects of climate change in Vermont will be big and noticeable and impactful, but perhaps not as dire as in other parts of the nation, or the world. 

Will that mean Vermont will become a haven of sorts from climate change?

As Seven Days reports, the latest Vermont climate assessment doesn't see any evidence yet that people are flocking to the Green Mountain State to avoid the worst of climate change.  Honestly, things have not gotten that dire yet for most Americans. 

The pandemic has been a cautionary tale, however, as people stampeded into Vermont from cities as the crisis took hold, hoping to avoid the crowds and contagion of cities. For better or worse, I guess.  

I've lived in Vermont all of my life (so far!). I've always been attuned to what nature is doing out there in any given moment.  I can tell you things are much different from when I was a kid.  I won't list them all, but I've noticed winters are far more variable, summers are hotter, spring is earlier and most autumns are later than they used to be.

As the latest Vermont climate assessment shows, we can expect perhaps even bigger changes in the coming decades as the world continues to warm.