The big tornado outbreak in the Plains this past weekend is over, but it was such an impressively large outbreak - and in some respects a strange one - that it needs one more look-see.
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| Red and orange shaded areas of this map are where meteorologists ahead of time said tornadoes were most likely this past Saturday. Red dots are where tornadoes actually touched down Other dots are damaging wind and and hail reports. |
The weekend death toll of 5 is undoubtedly tragic, but is incredibly low considering how powerful may of the tornadoes are and how many of them hit populated areas.
It was a testament to the great warning system we have for such storms in the United States. In this case, that system worked quite well, despite the number of strong to intense tornadoes associated with this outbreak.
According to ustornadoes.com, about 4 percent of all tornadoes are EF3, with winds of 136 to 165 mph. Only 1 percent of tornadoes are EF4. Those have winds of 166 to 200 mph.
A tiny number 0.1 percent of all tornados are the ultimate monster EF5s, with scouring winds of more than 200 mph.
No fewer than eight tornadoes in the outbreak were EF3s. One was an EF4, where it trashed a huge Dollar Tree distribution center and tossed cars and trucks into the air along Interstate 35, killing one person.
It was the first time in about 13 months that an EF4 was reported in the United States, the third longest period of time since 1871 between such violent twisters.
This tornado count might go up as the storm damage is assessed.
As of this morning, there were 173 tornado reports from Friday and Saturday. As is the usual case, only a small percentage were EF3s, but this is an impressive outbreak.
WARNINGS WORK
After many tornado outbreaks, I hear witnesses say "there was no warning," or "it came out of nowhere" despite the fact there were warnings. Those warnings didn't get through for whatever reason. Disaster experts are alway trying to figure out the best way to convey warnings so people actually receive them, and act on them.
Whatever everybody did over the weekend worked.
"I definitely think the systems out here did a great job of plenty of forewarning. The sirens went off multiple times before the tornadoes touched ground. Our news station did a great job of covering where the weather was and where the weather was going. Our phone alert systems were all going off," Bryanna Kneeland told Fox Weather, describing her experiences in hard-hit Elkhorn, Nebraska.
It sounds like emergency managers considered the time of day in deciding how to take action, too.
Kneeland went on: "....it hit around 3:45 in the afternoon when people would normally be coming home from work and children would normally be coming home from school. And the schools were all in lockdown. They did not let the students leave the building. A lot of workplaces were in lockdown. They would not let people leave."
It's much safer to be in a substantial building than in cars, trucks or buses on the streets during a tornado, so these lockdowns were smart.
Kneeland was at work and her employer ordered her to stay put during the tornado emergency. Her husband was at home and their house was destroyed in the tornado. But he had received the warnings and was in the basement when the tornado hit. He was unharmed.
Elkhorn residents had 34 minutes warning that the tornado was headed their way, which is a fantastic lead time for tornado weather.
The National Weather Service also put a bug in the ears of Oklahoma residents six days before the outbreak that tornadoes were likely. That got people in the right frame of mind to think about what they would do if they received a tornado warning. This long range forecast probably inspired people to have a plan.
Forecasts in the day or two before the tornadoes began were super accurate. The tornadoes hit almost exclusively where meteorologists had said they would occur in the two or three days leading up to the tornadoes.
Tornado deaths are more common at night, when people are not paying as much attention to warnings and you can't readily see twisters coming. Four of the five tornado deaths were in Oklahoma, where the strongest tornadoes hit after dark.
This, by the way, isn't climate change at work. There have always been tornado outbreaks like this. Climate change has tended to encourage tornadoes to form further east in the United States than they use to.
However, this outbreak focused mostly on the "traditional" tornado alley in the southern and central Plains.
Tornado watches were up late this afternoon in the same parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas that dealt with the destructive storms Friday and Saturday. A few more tornadoes could strike Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow.
The overall weather pattern for the next few days is favorable for these severe storms over the next several days. It is, after all, the peak of tornado season.
As awful as last weekend was, we could have more deaths and more destruction in the coming weeks.
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