Don't Be Fooled By Mild Morning: Wild Vermont Winter Storm On Our Doorstep

 "Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning."

Forecast snow amounts would be fairly impressive for
a storm in midwinter. But this is April, which will
make this one of the largest April snowstorms on record.

Most of you aren't sailors but I bet a lot of early risers noticed the red skies at sunrise today. That old adage is true, we're still in for quite a storm. 

It's mild out there this morning, especially in the Champlain Valleys. That might lull you into the sense that maybe we're just in for typical April showers.  

Actually, things might start out that way.  Light showers will move in during the later morning and afternoon. 

 As temperatures start to drop this afternoon, it'll quickly go over to snow and sleet way up high, and that will snow level will drop lower in elevations this evening. 

That light precipitation will be the least of our problems, though, starting this evening.

Before we get into the details some of the bigger notes with this system

1. Disruptions

This storm is going to be disruptive to say the least, especially overnight and into Thursday. Power outages, blocked roads, treacherous, snow covered roads, and near blizzard conditions in the high elevations are all in play.

2. Highly Variable

Different Vermonters will experience vastly different storm conditions depending on where they live. 

In the warmest valleys, like the Champlain, it'll be a wet snow and not all that much, compared to other sections of the state.  It'll probably be three to eight inches of wet snow there.  During daylight hours Thursday, a little rain might even mix back in. 

Higher up and away from the lake, much of the snow will be somewhat less wet and heavy, but there will be a LOT more of it.  Most - but not all - areas above elevations of, say 800 feet will see somewhere between eight and 15 inches of snow. Eastern slopes of the Greens will easily top a foot of new snow, maybe 18 inches.

Some places will see a lot of wind, others not so much. More on that next: 

3. High Wind Dangers 

High winds will mark the first phase of the storm in at least parts of Vermont. That might just be the factor that causes the most power outages. Winds this evening and the first half of tonight will scream out of the east, especially in the western slopes. 

Gusts could easily reach 70 mph in a few wind-prone spots in Rutland County, and 65 mph in favored spots all the way north to near Cambridge and possibly even further north along the western slopes.

The heavy snow will add to the power outages later. But since the snow might not be as wet and heavy as first thought, cross your fingers and hope the snow doesn't cause too many additional power problems. 

4.  Historic Storm?

For Vermont and New England, this storm at least arguably ranks up there with some of the biggest April storms of the past few decades, ranking up there with 1975, 1982 and 2007.  More on that further down in the post 

First we'll get into what to expect.  

TODAY

As always, there will be changes to the forecast as what actually ends up happening since this is such a wild storm. 

Things will slowly deteriorate today. What started as a pretty nice morning all things considered will go downhill into an increasingly gusty and eventually wet day. Precipitation won't come down all that hard. You'll see temperatures falling this afternoon as winds get stronger.

By late afternoon, it will probably be pretty blustery

EARLY TONIGHT

The first half of the night will be the strong wind phase. That's when the western slopes in particular will get their biggest blasts of wind.  Power outages will ramp up between 6 p.m. and midnight as the wind howls.   

Gray, threatening skies above a budding lilac bush
in St. Albans, Vermont this morning portend a
pretty remarkable late season snowstorm coming. 

Rutland County, and perhaps parts of Bennington County look like ground zero for the worst winds. I'm not sure on this, but the Rutland County winds might extend far enough west to affect populated Rutland Town and City. Charge your devices today in that area, folks!

Western slopes along the entire rest of the Green Mountains will also see some strong, potentially damaging gusts. Away from the mountains, you still could well see gusts in the 40 to 50 mph in many areas.

It will be snowing, raining and sleeting during the high winds, but the heaviest stuff will probably come a bit later. Although the eastern slopes of the Greens should start snowing pretty heavily during the evening.

LATER TONIGHT

As the nor'easter really takes over later on, it will throw a slug of very wet, unstable air our way. That translates into heavy snow.  There probably will be some sleet mixed in early on until the nor'easter blasts away a thin layer of warm air aloft that would cause the mixed precipitation.

Winds will continue pretty strong and gusty from the east.  The wind being forced up and over the eastern slopes of the Greens ensures very heavy snow fall there. West of the Greens, the downslope winds - still quite strong but not quite as bad as earlier in the night - will help limit snowfall rates.

The strong dynamics of this storm might cause a few instances of thundersnow overnight. In many area above 1,000 feet, it'll get cold enough for at least awhile to make the snow a little more powdery.  The strong winds, heavy snow and blowing snow will create zero visibility and near blizzard conditions on some roads.

The Champlain Valley will and other low elevations will have a somewhat wetter snow. Combined with gusty winds, that's a recipe for a few more power outages

THURSDAY

The morning will be a mess, probably, with continues snow, blowing snow and bad roads. The back roads could have trouble with fallen branches and trees blocking the way. 

Expect a nasty morning commute, especially away from the Champlain Valley. I imagine we'll see a lot of school cancelations and delays, too.

As the day goes on, it'll warm up a bit. It's April, and the high angle spring sun will do its work, despite the pocket of very cold air aloft created by this nor'easter. 

Warmer valleys will probably mix with rain, but the snow will keep piling up at elevations above 1,000 feet. During the afternoon, it might not snow quite as hard as it did early in the day, but it will keep snowing for sure. 

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY

The storm will only gradually crawl east and slowly weaken. Rain and snow showers will continue in the valleys, but slowly become lighter and more scattered with time. Higher elevations will keep piling it up, albeit more slowly. The best accumulations will be along the western slopes and summits of the central and northern Green Mountains.  

SNOW TOTALS

Champlain Valley, low elevations of western Vermont, lower Connecticut Valley: 3-8 inches, locally more in the far northern Champlain Valley

Towns at or above 1,000 feet: 8 to 18 inches, depending on elevation

Eastern slopes, southern, central Green Mountains: 10-20 inches, locally higher.

Green Mountain summits: 1.5 to 2.5 feet, isolated amounts possibly a little higher.

Given this, expect surprises either with lower or higher totals in some spots.

STORM COMPARISONS

This storm is also bringing very heavy snow to the Adirondacks, and much of New Hampshire and Maine. Those areas can expect up to two feet of snow with strong winds, and the inevitable power outages. 

Heavy snow from the parent low is also falling in Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Coastal New England can expect strong winds, coastal flooding and battering storm waves. Flood watches and warnings extend from Ohio and West Virginia to western New York and New Jersey.

This storm brings to mind three epic April nor'easters that are somewhat comparable:

1975

A storm system similar to this one caused heavy snow from Chicago to New England. Like the current system the parent storm went into the Great Lakes, causing heavy snow in Chicago and other areas around there on April 2-4

That parent storm spun up a powerful nor'easter which pretty much stalled near New England. That's the scenario we have with the current storm. 

The 1975 storm dumped 30 inches of snow on Peru, Vermont and 24.4 inches on Enosburg Falls.

This storm during the Disco Era was colder and stalled for a longer period of time than this one will. In Burlington, measurable snow fell daily from April 3 to 8. Except for a couple hours on April 6 when it was 33 degrees, the temperature stayed continuously below freezing from later on April 3 until April 10. Seasonably warm spring weather didn't return until April 15.

This time, we'll be back to our regularly scheduled springtime weather on Sunday, or Monday at the very latest. 

1982

This was a remarkably cold nor'easter on April 6-7, 1982 that sent record breaking heavy snow right down to the coast, which is very rare in April. Up to 10 inches fell in New York City and a couple feet hit parts of New England. 

Southern Vermont also received up to two feet of snow.  The storm missed northern sections of the state. However, across almost all of Vermont, temperatures fell into the single numbers. Afternoon "high" temperatures were only in the upper teens to low 20s.

2007

The nor'easter of April 15, 2007 was generally warmer than the current one, but even windier than this one is expected to be. Downslope winds of up to 72 mph swept into Rutland, causing widespread damage to trees, power lines, roofs, awnings and other structures. 

Elsewhere in the Northeast, the storm causes serious flooding on parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The flooding was even worse in parts of New Hampshire and Maine. Some flooding hit Vermont, but it wasn't as bad as the high water further east.