Strong, Gusty Winds, Showers, Thunderstorms, Warmth To Keep Vermont Interesting Today

Strong winds overnight toppled a large tree onto my
largest perennial garden, creating a big mess. I just
finished cleaning up tree damage from last week's
snowstorm. Not my month for trees. Strong,
gusty winds should continue at least though this morning. 

 Frankly, kind of a tricky forecast for today as computer weather models are struggling a bit with what's going on today. 

But at least we can give you the broad brush and know that will be generally right. 

It will be kind of a hang on to your hat, your umbrella might not work well kind of day as gusty winds will keep things stirred up through much of the day. We also have showers and possible thunderstorms coming in with their own round of potential downpours and wind gusts. 

WIND ADVISORY

The question is, how blustery will it get? And will it be enough to cause a few power issues. 

A wind advisory is up until 2 p.m. today in northern Vermont from the east slopes of the Green Mountains to Lake Champlain.  The wind advisory is also hoisted along the west slopes of the Greens in Addison and Rutland counties. 

Winds in this zone could gust to 55 mph, mostly this morning. Elsewhere in Vermont, gusts are forecast to be in the 35-45 mph range.

We already had some big winds at times overnight between the showers. I got up this morning to find a large tree had toppled onto my largest perennial garden, which sucks, of course. Looks like I can rescue most it not all of the garden.  But the big tree fell on and crushed a  cedar tree that I really wanted. I lost another cedar tree and a cherry tree in the snowstorm earlier this month.

I guess it's not my month for trees. At least the trees haven't been falling on the house and cars, knock on wood. 

Here's the tricky part, going forward. How much more wind are we going to see?

 The computer models thought we'd be mostly rain-free this morning. A lack of precipitation allows the atmosphere to mix more efficiently. That mixing can grab high speed air from several thousand feet up and bring some of it to the surface in the form of fitful gusts going to 55 mph.

However, as of 6:30 p.m.,  a big patch of rain was working its way northward through Vermont, which would at least temporarily calm the winds. 

After that goes by, we have a better chance of seeing a few hours of strong winds. Nothing insane, but enough to take down a smattering of trees, branches and a couple power lines. The winds will tend to diminish, but not entirely go away this afternoon. 

SHOWERS/STORMS

If you went outdoors early this morning you noticed how warm and almost humid feeling it felt. 

With some breaks of sun developing later on, we could get enough instability for thunderstorms this afternoon.

We know an approaching cold front will at least produce showers for pretty much everyone.  The question is whether we get thunderstorms and how strong they might be.

I doubt really strongly we'll see anything severe. But we could get some gusty winds and some brief torrential downpours out of the strongest ones, if we get enough of that instability in the air we talked about. 

If that happens, we could see some isolated instances of flash flooding. Nothing widespread, but a driveway or an edge of a dirt road could wash out.

Overall, it looks like we won't see enough rain to cause any real flooding on the bigger rivers and creeks in Vermont. Some of them might get bankful, or even go into very minor flood stage if we get extra rain. Don't worry about your entire town going under water again, though. It ain't happening.

Showers will continue tomorrow, but they will be lighter. It will be colder, too, so if you're above about 1,500 to 2,000 feet in elevation, you might see a little snow.

Looking ahead, things continue to look unsettled with frequent chances of showers. Monday and Tuesday look driest at this point.