Wet Spring Weather Continues Off And On Today Through Next Week

 Those April showers are turning out to be persistent this year. 

Time to declare the first daffodil of the season this
morning in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens as
warm, showery weather is forcing spring 
buds and plants along very nicely. 

 The first round moved through Wednesday.  I didn't  notice any thunderstorms in Vermont, but oddly, a strong looking thunderstorm  - it almost looked like a supercell at one point - moved across much of Quebec north of Ottawa and Montreal. 

The next band of rain was moving into southwestern Vermont as of 8 a.m. and will move northeastward across the entire state this morning and afternoon.

It's a warm front, part of that big storm that caused all those severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and the widespread, nasty flooding along the Gulf Coast yesterday. 

We're not in for  anything like that here in Vermont, but as this storm continues, we'll need to watch for gusty winds, maybe some minor flooding and non-severe thunderstorms over the next couple of days. 

The rain today won't be super heavy, amounting to a tenth to a quarter inch.  Rivers have been running kind of high with the snow melt over the past couple of days. Continued melting from the mountains and this rain will make the rivers rise a little more, but we won't have to worry about any flooding today. 

The highest temperatures today will come late in the day after most of the rain passes by. We'll be in the storm's warm sector.  Highs could sneak into the low 60s in some of the warmer western valleys, and well into the 50s elsewhere

By the end of the day, you'll notice an increase in humidity. Not summer, style, but we'll feel the warm dampness.  The organic smells of spring - mud, emerging plants and such - will fill the air. Sounds bad, but it really is a nice seasonal aroma. Try to catch a whiff if you live near forests and wildlife.

TONIGHT

In short, unsettled and warm.  The parent storm is strong, so that will stir a quite a bit of wind as the system draws warm, wet air in from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. 

Wind gusts could reach 40 mph in many areas, maybe a little more in favored spots. Winds will be howling several thousand feet overhead. There's questions over how much of that, if any will be able to mix down to ground level. 

National Weather Service radar from Wednesday 
evening shows well-behaved showers in Vermont, 
but a rogue, strong thunderstorm popped up
north of Montreal, demonstrating the 
fickleness of April. 

If it's able to, a few strong gusts might develop, especially along the western and northern slopes of the Green Mountains. This would create isolated power issues, but nothing widespread as in last week's wind and snowstorm. 

And boy, it's going to be waaayyy too warm for snow tonight. Temperatures will hold in the 50s for most of us overnight There's even a bit of a chance that warmer spots in the Champlain Valley could stay near 60 degrees. That would make overnight lows typical for mid to late June if that happens. 

Showers will be around, some very briefly moderate to heavy.  Again, not enough for a flood, but enough to keep rivers high for Friday.

FRIDAY

I have a few wild cards for Friday.  There are some signs that rainfall in southern Vermont could be a little more than originally forecast. That could set the stage for a bit more minor flooding in central and southern Vermont.   

Again, nothing catastrophic, but worth watching because of how low lying roads and such could flood. Current forecasts have the Otter Creek at Center Rutland just nicking minor flood stage or at least coming very close. 

Further north, the Mad River could also come close to minor flood stage. In any event, all rivers in Vermont will be running quite high and swiftly Friday into Saturday. 

The next question is thunderstorms. We know as the storm's cold front comes in during the day it will trigger a band of shower and possible thunderstorms. Rain could come down pretty hard, but briefly.

April showers bring.... April rainbows. Sky over 
St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday evening after
a showery day. 

However, if there's some clearing ahead of the cold front, that'll destabilize the air and work with the humidity that will be around.  Were that to happen, we'd see locally torrential downpours and a flash flood threat in a few spots 

The threat is marginal, and definitely not widespread. We're absolutely not talking another July '23 catastrophe here. But there could be a spot or two with road washouts, basement flooding, standing water. We'll keep an eye on it. 

Otherwise, all this warm and wet air will really keep the march of spring advancing quickly today and tomorrow. 

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

Saturday looks colder and showery, with highs only in the 45-52 range. Not terrible for this time of year, but definitely cooler. The rain Saturday won't be enough to trigger any new flooding but will keep rivers running high and fast.

So far, all this rain doesn't have an immediate threat of causing flooding on Lake Champlain. Flood stage there is 100 feet.  This morning, it was right around 97 feet.  It'll go up this weekend, but I doubt we'll get to minor flood stage on the lake. 

Sunday looks drier and a little warmer. A little storm looks like it might scoot by Sunday night with a little more rain, mostly in southern Vermont. 

After a couple days of drier weather, another storm looks to hit next Wednesday and Thursday. It's way too soon to tell you how much rain that would bring us.