A Welcome Break From U.S. Tornado Risks Before We Gird For Peak Season

This is definitely NOT a tornado, but this storm over
Lake Champlain sort of resembles one, and a tornado
did touch down in Benson, Vermont that day. The
nation is taking a few day break from tornadoes
but they should return within  week. Vermont
hasn't had one yet this year
and definitely won't any time soon. 

 Storm systems in the middle of the nation this week have spun off scores of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, as is typical of April.  

Typical, but still dangerous and destructive. 

It was a relatively busy week for tornadoes, with at least 38 reported so far this week. This number could well increase as National Weather Service meteorologists inspect storm damage to determine whether a tornado or straight line winds were responsible. 

Starting today, we probably have a few days off from tornadoes in the U.S.

A weird quirk in this year's tornado stats so far is as of mid-April Ohio has had the most tornadoes of any state, with 35.  That doesn't include any that might have touched down in Ohio Wednesday.

The first part of the tornado season is usually focused on the South. Places like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Tennessee usually have the most tornadoes through mid-April. Florida has had the second most so far with 34, and Illinois, also somewhat oddly north for early tornadoes has had 30 of them. 

Tornadoes struck Wisconsin, Michigan and New York during February, which is extremely odd for such northern states so early in the season 

Even in the most extreme tornado years, like tragic 2011, there are breaks of a few days in which there are no tornadoes during the peak season for these storms, which usually encompasses April, May and much of June. 

We're about to head into one of those periods, so people in places like Illinois and Ohio can relax. For a little while.

A wide dip in the jet stream centered in southeastern Canada for the next few days will create a flow of air from the northwest from the Plains to the East Coast. 

 This wide area is the zone in which tornadoes often form in the spring. But those northwest winds are dry, and block moisture from invading from the Gulf of Mexico. 

Warm, muggy air is a key ingredient for tornadoes. Without that, you have a hard time seeing a spinup.

So far, I'd rate this young tornado season relatively busy, but we're certainly not at a record pace. As of this morning, there had been 327 reported tornadoes, maybe a bit fewer than average, but definitely not at a record slow pace. 

Both in 2023 and the year before, there had been about 550 tornadoes in the U.S.  But in 2020, there had only been 254 twisters by April 17, according to data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.  

The problem is the biggest number of tornadoes, and the deadliest ones more often than not hit in late April and May.  This break it tornadoes will be short-lived, as those breaks often are in April. 

 By next Thursday,  the dip in the jet stream over southeastern Canada will have pushed a little more to the east. That will increase the potential for south winds over the Plains and Midwest. That wind will bring back warmth and humidity. 

Once that steamy air starts to interact with any storm systems coming in from the west, the threat of tornadoes will blossom again. Computer models hint at some sort of storm forming in or near the central Plains by the end of next week. The tornadoes will be back.