March Was World's 10th Consecutive Record Hot Month

I'm sounding a bit like a broken record here, but for the 10th month in a row, I'm telling you the world just had a new record for warmest March,  at least since they started keeping track of such things.   

Another very red global climate map, another
record warm month in March, 2024 for Planet Earth. 

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information said this March was just a hair above the previous record set in 2016. This was the 48th consecutive March that was warmer than the long term average. 

The data sets for NCEI goes back 175 years, so we know it's was the hottest March since at least 1850.  But climate scientists believe the last time the world was this warm was about 125,000 years ago. 

Before my time, that's for sure. 

NCEI says there's a 55 percent chance this year will outdo 2023 and become the world's hottest year on record. There's a 99 percent chance it'll be among the top five warmest.

The reason NCEI gives this year about a 50-50 chance of being hottest despite the first three months breaking records by pretty big margins is El Nino.

Or rather the demise of it. El Nino is rapidly falling apart, to be replaced by La Nina.  

La Nina on balance cools the Earth slightly. That means subsequent months this year might not break new record for hottest ever. Because of climate change, though, months going forward will be among the hottest on record, no matter what happens with La Nina.

With El Nino rapidly fading, you can see cracks in the 10-month long stretch of global record warmth.  Oceans were the warmest on record in March, but land areas were just fourth warmest. But combine oceans and land, you still get a record warm March on Earth. 

As in the previous ten months, very warm conditions relative to average covered huge areas of the globe. These include almost all of Africa, Europe and South American, along with eastern North America, eastern Asia and eastern Australia.

You'd be hard-pressed to find anyplace that was cooler than average in March.  Cool areas relative to average were pretty much limited to  parts of Antarctica, which is interesting, western Australia and a little patch of the North Atlantic just south of Iceland.

That cool patch off of Iceland is not a good sign. This "cold blob" has been often re-appearing in this region for the better part of a decade now. 

There are conflicting theories on this. Some of it could be cold fresh water melting off of Greenland in ever-greater quantities.  Cold, salty water is dense, so it sinks, and warmer water goes over the top of it. But cold fresh water doesn't sink like salty water does, so that could be part of the issue.

However, the cold blob is often there in the winter, when there is virtually no melting from Greenland. 

Increased winds in the region might also encourage the cold blob. However, scientists say those higher regional winds are also a sign of climate change. 

As usual, other climate monitoring organizations agreed closely with NCEI. 

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service last Tuesday released their assessment, also with the news that March globally was the warmest on record. 

The Washington Post's account of Tuesday's Copernicus report has a Vermont connection worth noting. The hotter air, the fact that the Atlantic Ocean has heated up so much, has implications for us in the coming months, even if upcoming months turn out to be not quite the hottest ever.

Says WaPO:

"'It should be eye-catching - we are going toward uncharted territory,' said Gillian Gilford, the lead of the Vermont Climate Assessment and a professor at the University of Vermont who reviewed the report. 'It's rather unusual we see such an increased temperature over months and seasons.'

She added that the warmer waters of the Atlantic in particular can lead to larger storms and a more intense hurricane season. It's could also lead, she said, to more storms dumping more water in places like Vermont, in the northeastern United States, which saw intense flooding last summer."

Warmer ocean water adds additional moisture to the atmosphere, which can blow inland and crate serious floods. 

To calm fears, I must say the hot Atlantic is no guarantee Vermont will see additional big floods this spring and summer. Specific weather patterns would need to draw that super saturated air our way. 

We don't know what will happen this summer. For all we know, we in Vermont could have a dry summer if persistent winds come from the dry west or north.  It seems like the wet times are often wetter and the dry times are drier than they used to be. 

The point being with our ever hotter world, expect more surprises and more weather extremes.  Even if a particular month is not the warmest on record for planet Earth. This will go on for the rest of your lives and beyond.