Tuesday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Watches Upgraded To Warnings; Quite A Storm Due

 It was hard to believe today that Vermont is anticipating a pretty intense winter storm. 

The National Weather Service Tuesday afternoon
snow map. Expected snow totals have been boosted
again but only by a little bit. Still looks like
many mid and high elevation towns could close
in on a foot of snow. 

Temperatures today were mild - in the 50s. Sunshine didn't fade behind clouds until mid afternoon south, late afternoon or early evening north. All in all a lovely April day. 

Tomorrow and Thursday, not so much. Friday and Saturday don't look great, either.

So here's a quick update for this evening. As you'll see, this storm is keeping meterologists really, really busy.  Here's what's changed since this morning:

1. Winter Storm Watch Now A Warning

To nobody's surprise, the winter storm watch, which means snowfall was possible, is upgraded to a winter storm warning, which means it's inevitable. This is a long lasting warning. It starts late morning tomorrow and goes to about dawn Friday. 

The heaviest snow, rain and schmutz looks like it will come down from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. The warning covers pretty much all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley and western Rutland County.

Total accumulation will range widely in the winter storm warning area - somewhere between seven and 20 inches, with the highest amounts in the upper elevations. 

There are signs a fair amount of sleet could mix in with the snow in many locations. That will have to be watched, as the sleet could cut down on snow accumulations a bit. The heaviest precipitation will come overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, and to a bit of lesser extent Thursday afternoon and night. 

The Champlain Valley and the western half of Rutland County are under a somewhat lower grade winter weather advisory.  Like the warning, it's in effect from 11 a.m. tomorrow to 6 a.m. Friday. However, during daylight hours, slightly above freezing temperatures could cause a mix with rain and some melting. Total accumulations look to be three to nine inches based on elevation.

2. Strong Winds 

High wind warnings and wind advisories are up for much of Vermont. Luckily, most of the strongest winds will come before the heaviest snow. Still, those winds will help contribute to power outages and tree damage.

A high wind warning is in effect for Rutland County and for eastern Addison and Chittenden counties from 10 a.m. Wednesday to 10 a.m Thursday. Winds should crank in these areas at 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph.  

This happy but unsuspecting crocus blossomed today
in St. Albans, Vermont. This blossom is soon to be
battered or smushed by gusty winds and heavy
wet snow as that big storm approaches the state.

I wouldn't be surprised if local gusts go above 65 mph.  Rutland County looks like the target for the strongest, most destructive winds. 

A wind advisory has been hoisted for most of the rest of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley. Winds in this area will gust to at least 50 mph. The Champlain Valley will be pretty blustery, too, but maybe just slightly less so than the rest of the state. 

3. Forecast Changes and Highlights

In general, forecast snow amounts have been increased some since this morning, despite the risk of sleet mixing in. I have a feeling a fair number of towns, especially above a 1,000 foot elevation, will see at least a foot of snow. This storm could really clobber high elevations along and just east of the Green Mountain crest in the southern half of Vermont.

Summits all the way north to Jay Peak could see more than two feet of snow by Saturday.

Snow in lower valleys like near Lake Champlain will be a little more challenging to measure. True, three to nine inches in the forecast, but there might never actually be that much on the ground. For instance, a town might get four inches of snow Wednesday night, then it will melt some during the day Thursday, then three inches of additional snow would fall Thursday night. 

That would be a storm total of seven inches, but the snow might never get that deep, due to daytime melting. 

Power outages are still a big risk. We'll see a first wave Wednesday afternoon and especially night with the strong winds. Then the heavy snow will add more late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

Things gradually improve - but the operative word is gradual - Friday and Saturday. I hope I'm not jinxing things, but the forecast still calls for partly to mostly clear skies Monday during the eclipse.  I still feel like something will go wrong and give us a solid overcast. That's because Vermont weather often disappoints at the most critical times.

We'll see if I'm just a glass half empty type of SOB.