Update: Storms Possibly Stronger In Vermont Than First Thought

The now-iconic photo of the tornado
that hit Middlebury, Vermont in
March, 2021.  Today, we have a
similar weather pattern to that day.
That means there is a very, very
low but not zero chance of another
brief twister this afternoon. 

 Figured I'd offer a couple quick early afternoon updates since this is one of those days that has some pretty fast-changing weather here in the Green Mountain State.  

Temperatures late this morning over-performed a bit, which I kind of expected. These higher temperatures and glimpses of sunshine we've seen have added a bit of extra instability to the air. 

Readings in some areas, especially the Champlain Valley, have snuck up into the 70s Burlington rocketed from 69 degrees at 11 a.m. to 75 at noon. Definitely warmer than original forecast. It probably won't get much warmer than that today as rain encroaches. 

Showers were increasing in New York State and some were on the verge of growing into thunderstorms as of 12:30 p.m. These showers and storms were also creeping closer, with some on the New York side of the Champlain Valley. 

I mentioned in my post this morning that severe storms were not a threat.

Now, myself, and forecasters aren't so sure. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded us to a marginal risk of severe storms today. That's the lowest on a five-level scale of risk. It means there could be isolated instances of a severe storm or two around Vermont over the next several hours.

Remarkably, we also have a very low, but not zero chance of a brief spin-up tornado today. There's a very, very strong chance Vermont won't see a twister today, but today's weather pattern does remind me of  that day on March 26, 2021 when a tornado damaged a couple houses in Middlebury. That one was our earliest in the season tornado on record. 

Also this morning, heavier, steadier waves of rain worked northward through New Hampshire much of this morning. Between those occasionally  heavy downpours and warm, rather humid weather for this time of year rapidly melting White Mountain snow, flash flood warnings were put into place across most of northern New Hampshire. 

Here in Vermont, the Williams River near Rockingham went into minor flood state. It looks like it might be a relatively short-fused flood warning, as the Williams River is forecast to go back down below flood stage by late today. 

I wouldn't be surprised if a couple other rivers in Vermont get close to flood stage later today. We might also see a localized flash flood or two, since some of the storms now appear as if they'll be a little  stronger than first though. 

The winds we had this morning are starting to diminish a bit, but will remain gusty through the day. At a couple times this morning about 1,000 homes and businesses were without power this morning in Vermont. 

So far the only official damage report in Vermont from the National Weather Service is the big tree that I told you about that fell onto my perennial beds last night. Lucky me!