Closely Watched Hurricane Forecaster Predicts A Doozy Of A Season

Colorado State University researchers say the upcoming
hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean will
be especially busy this year. 

 The first widely watched forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season was released Thursday, and predicting a wild season. 

With big caveats, of course. 

Every year about this time researchers at Colorado State University, a well-regarded hurricane and tropical weather forecast center give us their initial take on what the upcoming hurricane season will be like.

They're takeaway: The fine folks at the National Hurricane Center had better be on their toes this summer and autumn.

The Colorado State University hurricane geeks tell us they expect 23 named storms (tropical storms or hurricanes); 11 full blown hurricanes and five major hurricanes, which are defined as storms with wind speeds of at least 111 mph.

An average Atlantic hurricane season would bring us 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three of which would be major. 

In other words, Colorado State expects a blockbuster season. 

"'This is the highest April forecast that we have put out,' Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State meteorologist and Atlantic hurricane forecast, said in a video news briefing," reported NBC News. 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June 1 through November 30, though you can occasionally get tropical storms before or after those dates. The season usually peaks in late August and September. 

We have two main reasons why forecasters are worried about the upcoming hurricane season.

One of them is Atlantic Ocean water temperatures. Hurricanes thrive on warm ocean water. The hotter the better. 

Ocean water in most of the Atlantic, including in areas where tropical storms and hurricanes tend to develop are at record highs. Ocean water heats up through the spring summer and sometimes into early autumn. Right now, water temperatures in the hurricane development zone are already where they should be in June. 

If the water keeps warming up at this pace, that will be jet fuel for hurricanes. 

Another worry is the expected transition from El Nino to La Nina.  El Nino is a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of South American. We've been in an El Nino for many months now, which has worked in conjunction with climate change to create extreme warmth around the world.

El Nino tends to cause high winds aloft over the Atlantic Ocean, which rips apart wannabe hurricanes before they can really rev up. 

El Nino is fading in favor of La Nina. That will probably cool the world ever so slightly, though climate change will keep the record heat waves and big storms going pretty consistently. 

La Nina also weakens those strong upper level winds over the tropical Atlantic, which gives wannabe hurricanes a nurturing atmosphere to grow and become powerful. 

What matters most, of course, is where a hurricane ends up going.  A super strong Category 5 storm that goes harmlessly out to sea and dies in the cold waters of the North Atlantic isn't really that big a deal.

That same Category 5 taking a path that smashes it into a populated coastline is another thing altogether. 

Colorado State does give a greater chance than usual of a major hurricane hitting somewhere along the United States coast.  They give a 62 percent chance of a hurricane packing winds of at least 111 mph somewhere between Brownsville, Texas and Eastport, Maine. Usually, they give about a 47 percent chance of this happening in any given year. 

Hurricane forecasts this far in advance are of course iffy.  Other factors can erupt that would disrupt a busy season. However, Colorado State researchers say their confidence in this early prediction is higher than it usually is when they take a first stab at hurricane forecasts in April every year. 

The researchers know the chances of the forecast being off are still fairly high. But they release the predictions in April to satisfy public curiosity and to raise awareness of the dangers posed by hurricanes. 

It serves as a reminder to those living in hurricane prone areas to spend time now seeing if their insurance is adequate, whether they have gear to protect property in a hurricane, and have an escape plan or a hunkering down plan in advance.