Two Memphis City Councilors, And A Scary Number Of Other People Say Storm Dropped "Man-Made" Snow

The black stuff left on snow then
trying to melt it with a lighter is
just partly combusted material from the
lighter, not some nefarious plot
in the snow. Despite this fact, 
conspiracy theorists falsely
insist there is something "wrong"
with innocent snow and sleet. 

We've just gotten two big snow and ice storms in the southern United States in a little over a week. 

Which you'd think is bad enough. 

Now we have a bunch of people coming out of the woodwork, including two Memphis City Councilors, telling us all that snow and sleet and ice was fake. Man made for some damn reason none of these nutcases are clear about. 

Our city councilors from Memphis are Pearl Walker and Yolanda Cooper Sutton who took to social media to explain to us the storms weren't meteorology. They were apparently.... oh, who knows what.  

 As memphisflyer.com tells us :

"Cooper Sutton posted a video showing who she says is her husband attempting to melt a chunk of ice with a light. 'It's not melting  (it stinks) the you set fire to it OMG, Jesus Christ what is happening!!!"

The video is a slo-mo showing flame licking snow blue no water drips. Cooper Sutton says "This is not melting" she said. "What is falling from the sky hitting the ground?"

Her colleague on the City Council, Walker, responded to Cooper Sutton's post with the words "Man Made"

OK, I'll take off their tin hats and put on my Captain Obvious hat and explain it.. 

I wasn't there for their little science experiment, but I imagine the smell came from the butane lighter they were using.   There's not much water in a handful of snow, so not much water would drip from it. What little was there probably soaked into the tiny air spaces within the piece of snow. There's a lot of air in there, even if it's hard packed snow.  

Anyway, our friendly Memphis councilors got blow back immediately. 

A local activist named Hunter Demster decided to wade into the social media thread with this reasonable comment: "(Disheartening) to see several sitting Memphis City Council members literally pushing conspiracy theories about 'man made' sow," Demster wrote on Facebook. "Sigh......We are screwed as a species."

That just encouraged more people to double down on the conspiracy, and other to deride it. 

Cooper-Sutton later told WREG she meant her social media statements as light-hearted posts shared with family and friends. She went on to say how much she's done for the community and that she was getting death threats for questioning whether the snow was fake.

I'm sure Cooper-Sutton does a lot for Memphis, and anyone who sends out death threats to someone just because they have a very odd false, unscientific is way over the top. Don't do that! Death threats over this are much dumber than thinking the snow was manmade. 

Still, I have a lot of questions for our esteemed city council members.

If that was a manufactured material that resembles snow, who made it? And how did they make so much? Why? If somebody is sending a message by making that stuff, what is the message? Are there any whistleblowers who could help? Documents? Any other kind of proof? If this stuff didn't melt when you brought it in, why is it slowly melting outdoors when the temperature rises above freezing?  

Many people around Memphis said the stuff that fell on the city in late January  felt different to the touch than in most past winter storms. These many people are right. When Memphis does get winter storms, more often than not it's either the powdery snow that blows around, or wet, heavy cement. 

This stuff felt like small, heavy granules. Because they were. Almost everything that came out of the sky during that storm over Memphis was sleet. 

It wasn't just our city councilors. A now-apparently deleted post on the social media site Threads asked "So what chemicals are in that white stuff on the ground that's called SNOW? I have never seen ice or snow that doesn't break or melt in my life. Now if I'm asking a crazy question just let me know."

Well, I wouldn't call the question crazy, but again, it's not chemicals, either. Where this person was probably got a little snow a lot of sleet and a little freezing rain to turn the mess into something I'd call snowcrete.  

Concrete consists of gravel aggregate and a cement-like water slurry that binds it all together. In the case f that big storm, a bunch of sleet became the aggregate and the freezing rain the cement slurry to form the "snowcrete," 

In other words, millions of people experienced was just a big, strange, oddly widespread mixed precipitation storm 

There's also a TON of videos on line of people, like the Memphis City Councilors, putting the flame of a lighter to the snow. It leaves a black mark every time. That wasn't caused by a weird plastic substance in the snow, which the tin hat crowd would have you believe.   It was soot from incomplete combustion of the butane in the lighter. 

This is just little ole me telling the world to relax, there's no conspiracy to create storms of plastic pellets or chemicals to terrorize the public. The only terror was the amount of sleet and freezing rain, composed purely of frozen or freezing water that came out of the sky. Like it does in every winter storm. 

There are so many conspiracy nuts out there, that my little voice won't make a dent in all this. But I have to try anyway.  

Let's Have A Little Sympathy For People Struggling In Winter Storm Zone. It Really Was That Bad. Here's Why

In this image from Live Storms Media, the ice on the ground
was so thick and stubborn that a man resorted to using
a circular saw to cut and pry the ice from his driveway, 
The ice within the storm, and the long deep freeze
after it, has made cleanup for the storm especially
difficult and tedious in many places in the
Midwest and eastern United States. 

I'm seeing on social media a lot of snickering about people in the South, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States not being able to handle the aftermath of the big winter storm last weekend. 

I'm also seeing a lot of frustration among people who live in cities hit by the storm because ice isn't cleared from streets and sidewalks. There's still huge snow mounds, and pathways in business districts are just excruciatingly narrow divots between piles of snow and ice.

The frustration is more than understandable. Who wants to deal with all that ice and snow and difficulty in getting around day after day? It can be downright dangerous. 

Much of the ire is directed at city officials. And in some cases, some town and city DPWs really dropped the ball with this storm. 

But overall, a couple aspects of this storm made the whole thing a long-lasting nightmare for millions of people who are not in Vermont or other parts of northern New England. 

Sure, up to 20 inches of snow fell on Vermont last Sunday and Monday. But this stuff was as light as feathers. We were able to clear all this stuff off our driveways and sidewalks without a problem. The snow was so filled with air that it settled a lot, Burlington, Vermont had 15.6 inches of snow in the storm. By Friday, the snow depth on the ground was down to eight inches.

Us northerns were smug about our snow clearing abilities, not understanding the difference between the fluff in Vermont and the cement-like crust of ice further south. 

In a broad zone from northern Texas and in Oklahoma all the way to the Mid-Atlantic States, the storm started as snow. Then a ton of sleet and freezing rain on top of it. 

Ever try to shovel three or four inches of sleet? You'd better be a bodybuilder if you try. Then throw in some freezing rain. The layers of snow and sleet get frozen into a solid, glacial mass that's almost impossible to hack away. 

The ice is so thick and stubborn in some places that a man in Lexington, Kentucky was seen using a circular saw in an attempt to cut and pry the ice from his driveway. 

South of the Great Lakes, northern New York and northern New England, snow and ice usually start to melt almost right after a winter storm ends. At least that's been the case in recent decades, as climate change has made extended periods of frigid weather increasingly rare,

But not impossible. The cold air has hung on relentlessly since that storm. A reinforcing shot of frigid air arrived yesterday, and will plunge temperatures to record lows in the Southeast tonight. 

Mississippi highways were still sheets of ice, with hundreds of stuck tractor trailers and other vehicles just sitting there. Cars were still sliding down hilly streets in Richmond, Virginia five days after the storm ended. 

In Washington DC, people are expected, under city ordinance, to clear the driveway in front of their homes within eight hours of daylight after a storm ends. Commercial properties face a $150 fine for not clear the walks and homeowners get $25 fines.

However, because the ice is so thick in DC, and it's been so cold, the city has temporarily suspended that rule. You still need to clear a path on the sidewalk, but if there's some snow and ice left that people can't hack away, the fines have been suspended for now. 

The temperature in Washington DC fell below freezing on January 23 and has been that way since. Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing in DC at least through next Saturday, except for a couple brief excursion into the mid 30s Tuesday and Friday. This in a city where the normal high temperature this time of year is 44 degrees. 

Also, snow that has a lot of sleet in it, like what's in Washington DC has now, doesn't melt nearly as fast as just powdery snow. 

New York City residents are grumbling about the snow, too, even though the Big Apple got very little sleet. The headline in The Gothamist Saturday was "New Yorkers begin to lose hope as freeze sets in and snow turns gray."

Garbage bags are beginning to pile up atop the snowbanks because the sanitation department has been more focused on snow removal than garbage. At least for the moment. The problem in New York is the same as elsewhere: There's been no thaw to remove the snow and no above freezing temperatures are in the forecast.  

It won't get above freezing in New York until at least next Saturday, and probably beyond that. 

As we head into February, millions of people will remain locked up in the ice and snow for many more days. A thaw will hit eventually, but it seems like forever before we'll see it. 

The winter of '26 is tough in so many respects. And that includes the weather.  

Huge U.S. Winter Storm Has Begun, And Will Worsen. Here In Vermont, Cold, With Maybe Foot Of Snow

All that pink on the National Weather Service web page
is winer storm warnings. It's one of the largest winter
storm warning areas I've ever seen. The purple in
parts of the south is ice storm warnings. 

The big national. winter storm is now underway, and it will continue to worsen as we go through tonight, tomorrow and Sunday. 

In some places, the storm could be the worst in years, or even decades.

First, we'll take a look at a stormy nation, and down below, you'll see our Vermont-specific update. 

DEVELOPING STORM

As of Friday afternoon, precipitation was blossoming over New Mexico and Texas and it was starting to head north and east. 

The mid-afternoon precipitation was mostly rain in Texas, but that was about to change. Subfreezing air had reached the border between Oklahoma and Texas north of Dallas. It was already in the teens in the Texas Panhandle. 

Sleet and freezing rain had already begun in areas around Lubbock, Texas.

As the precipitation keeps moving north and east and expanding, the cold air is pushing into this growing mass of rain. The die is cast. The massive winters storm has begun. It will continue to harass millions upon millions of Americans between now and Monday. 

Grocery store shelves are now empty or close to it from Texas to New England, as people heed warnings to stock up ahead of the storm. Fox Weather posted on X views of an Oxford, Mississippi grocery store that practically had nothing left. 

Don't expect to travel anywhere this weekend. As of 3;45 p.m. eastern time, more than 2,415 flights in the United States had been cancelled, and that number was rising rapidly, according to FlightAware.  Nearly 1,450 Sunday flights had already been canceled by this afternoon. 

ICE STORM

The scariest part or this storm is the freezing rain. There's vast amounts of it in the forecast and this icy precipitation will freeze an enormous area.

As of Friday afternoon, ice storm warnings covered parts  of eastern Texas; northern and central Louisiana; roughly the northwestern half of Mississippi; southwest and eastern Tennessee; northeastern Georgia, the western half of South Carolina and western and southern North Carolina. 

Most of these areas can expect at least a half inch of ice accumulation. A half inch is where trees, branches and power lines really start to break. Many places under the ice storm warning can expect three quarters of an inch or more. 

The ice storm warning in parts of South Carolina is the first one they've had in two decades. 

As meteorologist Matthew Cappucci noted on X, meteorologists are already calling for up to 1.25 inches of ice accumulation in northwest Mississippi, which is an incredibly rare forecast. He said tree damage would be equivalent to Category 1 or 2 strength hurricane.

Besides the power outages, many roads will be blocked by both fallen trees and ice. 

The power outages are going to be stupendous. All those people in heatless homes for days in subfreezing temperatures worry me.  Especially people who might need emergency medical help.

Areas north of the ice storm warnings are not off the hook. A wide band north of the ice storm warnings will have a horrible mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Forecasts for mixed precipitation have been trending north, especially along the East Coast.  

Sleet could mix in as far north as New York City. Even with the sleet, the New York metro area could see 12 to 18 inches of snow. 

The Washington Post put together this snow
accumulation map. Click on the image to make
it bigger and easier to see. 

Further north, along a broad path rom Oklahoma to New England, it'll entirely snow or almost al snow, with accumulations in many spots closing in on a foot. In some places more than that.  

It's indisputably horrifically frigid in the Upper Midwest with widespread temperatures in the 20s below. But that's not historically cold. Record lows are generally not being set in that region.

However, the storm will yank that cold air southward behind it, so record lows are expected in the southern Plains and perhaps some of the Gulf Coast States toward Monday and Tuesday. 

For instance, as the Washington Post tells us the forecast low in Dallas Monday is 7, and the record low that day is 12 above. Tulsa, Oklahoma is expecting a low of 6 below, which would obliterate the previous record low of 7 above in 1963

Brownsville, on the southern tip of Texas could get to 31 degree Monday, which would edge out the previous record low of 32 degrees.

As always, Donald Trump added his "wisdom" to this winter event. He posted this on social media: "Record Cold Wave expected to hit 40 States. Rarely seen anything like it before. Could the Environmental Insurrectionists please explain - WHATEVER HAPPENED TO GLOBAL WARMING???"

I'm not sure how many people familiar with climate science are "insurrectionists" but the explanation for this huge storm is called "winter."

Happens every year. Despite climate change, winter still happens, and you can still get extreme weather. Things like this just doesn't happen as often as it used to. That's partly why everybody is freaked out. 

There's record warmth currently in Greenland, Indonesia, northeast Africa and Madagascar. I guess we'll ignore those places. Moving on....

VERMONT EFFECTS

There's' some shifts in Vermont forecast since this morning, which I'm by no means surprised by.  

First of all, the main cold front introducing the Arctic air was just passing through Vermont as of late this afternoon.   It was getting gradually, noticeably colder this afternoon. This is not a well-defined cold front at all. The slide toward below zero weather is now accelerating as darkness falls.   

Wind chills were already in the single numbers and teens below zero as of 5 p.m. 

The National Weather Service's first crack at 
prediction snow amounts Sunday and Monday. 
This could change, but for now they have near
5 inch close to the Canadian border and a foot
near the Massachusetts border. 

We haven't had much in the way of snow squalls yet today, which is a slight surprise. It's still possible we might have a few heavier snow showers here and there this evening. 

It won't be widespread, but keep an eye out for any surprises on the drive home this evening. 

The extreme cold warning is still in effect overnight and the first half of Saturday. 

We're still looking at lows in the upper single numbers to mid teens below zero by Saturday morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph, so those wind chills will be brutal.

Lighter winds arrive during the day tomorrow. But with highs near 0, it won't exactly feel balmy.

The Storm

The big change this afternoon is that the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for all of Vermont roughly south of Route 2. Meteorologists are pretty certain those areas will see a pretty good dump of snow from Sunday afternoon into Monday. For now, the National Weather Service is going with 9 to 16 inches of snow in the warning area.

Northern Vermont is still just under a winter storm watch because it's still a little unclear how much deep moisture will make it to the Canadian border. And if does get there, how long will it last. 

Usually, a winter storm warning is issued if they're expecting six inches or more of snow. A winter weather advisory goes out if it's going to be a little less than that. I'm sure one or the other will be in effect in northern Vermont by tomorrow.

Early guesses call for five or six inches of snow from this in far northern Vermont.

I will note that the National Weather Service forecast is a little conservative compared to some other forecasts I've seen.  Some New England meteorologists are advertising 8 to 12 inches in northern Vermont and 10 to 18 inches south. 

Everybody should note that the snowfall predictions will be adjust up or down here and there between now and Sunday. 

It's looking like the snow will start during the afternoon Sunday and reach its peak overnight Sunday into early Monday morning.  It'll continue probably through at least a good part of Monday. But it should e a pretty light snow by Monday afternoon. 

It's still looking like an oddly cold storm, so it will be more challenging to dress for it if you need to be out in it, or shoveling. If you have to drive through it, pack extra warm clothing, blankets and snacks, since it's going to be so cold.

It also will stay cold all of next week. And probably beyond. It's still super unclear if this storm will be a one-off for us or if something else will come along. The next nor'easter in the pipeline is next Friday, but it looks like it will pass by way too far offshore to give us anything interesting in the Green Mountain State.  

 

Saturday Morning Vermont Update: Pretty Much Anything Might Fall From The Sky Tonight

National Weather Service map of expected snow totals.
This includes tonight snow, and lingering snow
Sunday through Monday. Click on the map to
make it bigger and easier to see. Also, 
it's a difficult forecast so don't be 
surprised if it turns out to be a little off. 

Our messy storm is on our doorstep, due tonight in Vermont and surrounding areas. 

And we still don't have a great idea of what will fall from the sky and any particular time during the storm. . But the experts are trying their best to tell you who gets snow, who gets ice, who gets rain.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter. 

Pretty much the entire state of Vermont, and surrounding states, and southern Quebec will get a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain.  The question who gets the most snow, the most ice, the most rain? 

I'll have some sadly vague answers in a bit.

First of all, how about that wind yesterday? The Champlain Valley and northern New York really got blasted, especially in the afternoon and evening. Power outages in Vermont peaked at around 2,800 homes and businesses last night. 

In northwestern New York, winds gusted to as high as 65 mph in Malone. Here in Vermont, peak gusts included  60 mph in Jay. 57 mph in Alburgh, 53 mph on Route 2 at the Sandbar in Milton and 51 mph in Burlington. 

In contrast, it's almost a dead calm out there this morning in anticipation of our storm.

THE STORM.

Meteorologists like to look at the thermal profile of the atmosphere in this type of weather situation. That means they look at what they think the temperature will be in every layer of the atmosphere. 

In this case, I would understand if those meteorologists just threw up their hands and said, "I dunno!"

But they're professionals, so they're giving it a shot. 

National Weather Service forecast of expected ice
accumulation from tonight's storm. Most of the freezing
rain will be in the mountains central and south.

A high pressure system that will be off to our north and east will try to feed cold air into northern New England as the double-barreled storm comes at us from the southwest.  We're also looking at that new storm developing along the New England coast. How fast and strongly develops will also help determine whether the cold air wins out, or the warm air takes over. 

The dense, cooler air trying to come in from the northeast will tend to hug the ground. Warm air will glide up over that chilly air.  

Where the cold air is the atmosphere and how thick layers of warm air will be overhead will determine which kind of stuff falls from the sky. That's our thermal profile. 

The bottom line is different types of schmutz will fall from the sky at different times. All we can do is try to predict what the predominate precipitation type will be.

Early guesses are this will be mostly snow toward northeastern Vermont. You'll see more sleet as you head south and east across the state. 

Here's another complication. As falling snow enters the warm layer in the atmosphere, it melts into raindrops. If the cold layer is thin, that rain stays unfrozen until it hits the ground, and turns to ice. That's freezing rain. 

If the cold layer near the ground is thicker, the raindrops freeze on the way down. They become little ice balls - sleet. 

As the National Weather Service describes it, some higher elevations might see some freezing rain, as the rain won't have time to turn to ice on the way down. The best chance of freezing rain with this storm looks like it'll be in the southern Green Mountains of Vermont and southern Adirondacks of New York. 

A winter weather advisory is in effect in those two areas because of that freeing rain risk.  I don't think the freezing rain will be enough to bring down much in the way of trees and power lines. It will be mostly a dangerous road type of situation. 

This mess should start around 6 to 8 p.m. this evening in southern Vermont and 8 to 10 p.m. central and north.  At least it's hitting at night on a weekend, so the effects on travel aren't so bad. 

The best guess on snow amounts by tomorrow are two to five inches of snow in the Northeast Kingdom, one to three inches central Vermont and the Champlain Valley and less than an inch south. This will be a heavy, wet snow, especially since many areas will have some sleet, freezing rain and rain mixed in with it. 

Expect surprises, with some areas getting more or less snow or ice than predicted. This is an easy forecast to screw up.

During the day on Sunday, more snow showers will continue, mostly north and northeast. For awhile Sunday, some of the valleys could see raindrops mixed in as cooler air will take its time coming in. 

Another one to four inches of snow looks like it fall Sunday and Sunday night in most of the north. They would be somewhat more than that in the northern Green Mountains. And there would probably be a little less than that in southern Vermont and in the central and southern Champlain Valley. 

The Adirondacks in New York and the White Mountains in New Hampshire looks like they will get some additional snow Sunday night as well. 

The forecast for the upcoming week is starting to look more complicated than earlier thought, too. But I'll get into that in a later post.   

Tuesday Vermont Evening Update: 1-4 Inches New Snow Due, Ice In Far South

A short period of sunny weather today got me outside
to clean the two inches of snow we got yesterday from
my St. Albans, Vermont driveway. Looks like I'll
have another two or three inches to clear tomorrow. 

I figure we can use a Tuesday evening update on our little storm coming through overnight, since it is year another bout with winter weather. 

We're still on tonight for another burst of snow in northern and central Vermont tonight, with a messy mix in the far south overnight.    

The forecasts haven't changed much since this morning, so here's an overview 

The initial storm is coming at us from the southern Great Lakes, and is bringing a batch of warm air with it, mostly high up in the atmosphere, but not so much down where we live.   

The warm air aloft is coming at us from the south and west. So the Adirondacks and southern Vermont will see the most schmutz tonight. 

The balmy air up high still looks like it will get cut off at the pass as another storm forms off the coast of Maine. The original storm will fade away. 

Since the original storm from the Great Lakes will be fading, it'll lose its ability to transport that warm air deeper into Vermont.  The new storm will try to shove a little cold air at all levels of the atmosphere into North Country later tonight.   

The wind won't be that strong, so it'll be a slow process. But eventually, even far southern Vermont will turn to snow late tonight, at least as it looks now. 

We could see a little mix as far north as the zone between Route 4 and Route 2. But the further north you go, the lower the chance of ice and the greater the chance this will be all snow. 

Accumulations will run from 1 to 4 inches. Definitely not storm of the century. The lower amounts will be in the far south, where they'll have all that ice and sleet. Northern mountains could get the four inches. Most of us are in for two or three inches of new snow.

This won't be as light and fluffy as the stuff we got yesterday and last night. You'll need a little more muscle to clean it up than you did this morning. The good news is it won't be wet cement, either. 

Snow or a mix should start between 8 and 10 p.m. this evening. Maybe a bit earlier than that in far southwest Vermont, and a little later up in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Although the snow will be tapering off by the time tomorrow morning's commute comes around, the roads might still be kind of annoying. I noticed that people slid off Interstate 89 coming into Burlington this morning, despite the light amounts of snow we got, and the fact the road surface wasn't that bad.

So prepare for more of the same tomorrow. 

The light snow will keep dwindling during Wednesday morning, maybe mixing with a little drizzle or freezing drizzle.

I won't really get really far into what's coming this weekend in this evening's post. But the first round of precipitation looks to be rain on Friday. I still  have a lot of questions as to what will happen with a second storm Saturday and Sunday, so stay tuned for updates 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Update: Rather Dramatic Storm Overnight, Early Thursday. Snow, Ice, Rain, Wind, Thunder

Skies darkening over St. Albans, Vermont late this
afternoon as we brace for a relatively short but
dramatic storm of snow, ice, wind, rain and probably
thunder. Things get better tomorrow late morning. 

The tornado warnings are popping like crazy in the Midwest and South as our anticipated big twister outbreak gets underway, followed by the epic, record flood event in parts of the nation's middle that we talked about this morning. 

Unfortunately, I think it's going to be a deadly and destructive few days, so our hearts go out to the many people who are going to be victims of this. 

I don't have much more to say about that right now as the those huge storms develop, so I'll focus this evening on our own little drama setting up in Vermont. 

It won't necessarily be deadly or super damaging, but it will be noticeable. 

VERMONT TONIGHT

In short, expect a relatively short lived, but rather dramatic storm in Vermont tonight and early Thursday. 

I hope you weren't planning on getting much sleep in the early morning hours between midnight and dawn. 

An impressive meteorological moment is setting the stage for a burst of snow, then a period of perhaps heavy sleet to rattle against your windows, then freezing rain in the eastern half of Vermont and finally rain. Some of that rain would come in the form of downpours that would roar on your roof.

In northwestern Vermont, high winds will howl with gusts in some areas pushing or exceeding 50 mph.

The pièce de rèsistance could well be loud thunder we might hear during all this weather chaos.  If it does thunder - and there's a decent chance of it - those rumbles and peals would be louder than you'd expect in a normal storm. 

The temperature inversion that will help create the sleet and freezing rain would  also deflect noise from thunder back down to the ground, onto us. 

The snow should arrive this evening, but quickly go over to a mix.  The atmosphere a few thousand feet overhead should warm remarkably quickly, gaining about 25 degrees - from subfreezing levels to well above freezing - with six or so hours. 

That'll drive the quick changeover from snow to ice. Especially since down here near the ground, things won't be able to warm quite as fast.

We're also starting from a somewhat colder temperature than what we thought earlier, so almost everybody gets a quick slug of snow. 

That will be followed by a period of sleet, which will also come down hard at times. Then, in western Vermont, we'll see a quick switch to freezing rain then rain. 

Over on the eastern half of the state, the freezing rain should hang on longer  Forecasters have actually increased the areas expecting near a quarter inch of ice. That's because the freezing rain will come down pretty torrentially at times, allowing for a quick accumulation. 

A few places might accumulate enough ice to create some power outages, but it won't be widespread. Northwest Vermont can expect a few outages as well, because of the strong winds overnight, and not so much the ice. 

There's plenty of lightning upstream with this system in Michigan, which is why the thinking is we'll have some thunderstorms, too. 

Like I said, this should be a quick hitter, so we're basically done with it by mid morning, maybe a bit later in the Northeast Kingdom.

Since the bulk of this mess is going by so fast, it won't have time to put down a tremendous amount of precipitation. Which means there's no flooding threat. 

THURSDAY

On paper, the storm shouldn't be over in the morning. You might expect a round of more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as a cold front approaches. But the air aloft will be too dry to really support that kind of thing, and there won't be enough instability to create the updrafts you need to produce storms. 

So we might end up with a few scattered showers, but not much else in the mild air that will engulf us tomorrow.  After a chilly Wednesday and our wintry, stormy night, it's back to spring tomorrow.  It'll get into the upper 50s to mid 60s. 

Winds will pick up again in the afternoon, this time from the west. Northwest Vermont, and some of the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts to 50 mph again for a few hours. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Friday is still looking nice enough, with highs in the , but the weekend still looks wet.  Most of us will just see rain Saturday and Sunday, but a few places in the mountains and Northeast Kingdom might see a little mixed precipitation.  

Early Afternoon Sunday Vermont Storm Update: Ice Working North, But Slowly. Impressively Snowy NW Vermont

Snow was piling up fast this morning around my
house in St Albans, Vermont, and the snowbanks
along the driveway were growing fast, too.

 Boy, the snow seemed pretty relentless here in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.  I haven't even gotten as much snow as a few places I've seen so far.  

But the 7.2 inches we've had through noon is pretty impressive, considering we have quite a bit of storm left to go before it's over.  

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has picked up eight inches of new snow through 11 a.m. Williston reported 8.5 inches. Morrisville clocked in with nine inches. 

The sleet and freezing rain has been working north in Vermont as expected, but not quite as aggressively as I thought it  might.

Sleet had made it to between White River Junction and St. Johnsbury in eastern Vermont and in spotty fashion mixed with snow as far north as Addison County by late morning. 

 I think northern Vermont, especially along and east of the Green Mountains will still get some sleet, but it won't last too long up there, maybe two to four hours?  Sleet will probably be very brief if it happens at all in the Champlain Valley north of Burlington. 

As of 12:45 p.m. the snow in St. Albans looked like it was starting to have a wetter consistency, hinting at warm air aloft that could give us a period of sleet this afternoon. 

I'm still worried about the amount of freezing rain that might fall in southern Vermont.  Latest maps depict quite a few areas in northern Bennington County and parts of Rutland, Windsor and Windham county seeing a quarter inch of ice.

Small areas of northern Bennington County could see a half inch of ice, which would really start to bring down branches and power lines if that comes true. 

There was a bit of a lull in the precipitation on radar as of shortly passed noon.  Mixed precipitation in southern Vermont was mostly just falling lightly at that point. Snow was only lightly falling in central and northeast Vermont, too. 

It looks like the northwest tip of Vermont might miss out on that lull, so that' where I'm guessing some of the more impressive snow totals will show up. 

The lighter precipitation has allowed the downslope winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountain to strengthen. There was only a small smattering of power outages in southwest Vermont along the western slopes, so things haven't gotten too out of control just yet. 

Winds at the Vermont State Airport, a little southeast of Rutland City have been gusting to 43 mph for the past couple of hours. Bennington has gusted to 46 mph, and the compressional warming caused by those downslope winds brought Bennington's temperature up to 35 degrees as of noon.

Almost everyone else in Vermont is still in the 20s. 

Winds along the western slopes will still probably get a little stronger yet this afternoon. 

The push of colder air at all levels of the atmosphere will start to push into northwest Vermont late this afternoon and then quickly cross the state early this evening. That would shut off the sleet and freezing rain everywhere and turn things back to snow. 

I still think we might have a pretty impressive burst of heavy evening snow as this comes in.  Winds will increase everywhere, so the blowing and drifting will get atrocious. 

I don't recommend going out driving today, and especially not this evening, as some spots will have close to zero visibility in near blizzard conditions due to heavy snow and blowing snow. 

I'll have a more comprehensive update for Vermont late this afternoon or very early this evening. 

Sunday Morning Vermont Storm Update: The Worst Is Just Beginning To Hit; Still Questions About How Much Ice

This morning's snow prediction update shows a storm total
that has been increased to around a foot in far 
northern Vermont, where less sleet is anticipated.
Totals decreased in southern Vermont where more
sleet and freezing rain has been added to the forecast 

Yep, our storm is definitely here.

Overnight, we had the calm phase of the storm, in which snow fell steadily across most of Vermont, but not at a super heavy rate. There wasn't much wind, and the snow is nice and fluffy. 

Another pleasant little Vermont snowfall.

But that's about over now.

The wild phase of our storm is just about to begin, and, as we've been advertising, it will be quite a ride. 

We've also kept saying that there will be revisions to the forecast right up through the storm, as the degree of mixing with sleet and freezing rain is hard to predict. Which, among other things, makes expected accumulations hard to anticipate. 

Plus, we are waiting to see how strong and how widespread the winds are going to be.

Overall, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says that anticipated precipitation amounts have gone up a little.  The anticipated warmth aloft that will create that sleet and freezing rain is also just the slightest hint cooler than previous predictions

That doesn't change overall forecasts for the storm all that much, but it does make anticipating what will happen harder.

THIS MORNING

The initial band of steady, light snow was lifting into southern Quebec as of 7 a.m. today.  There was a narrow gap south of that in which the snow had become very light and scattered.

Forecasts for the amount of ice accumulation from
freezing rain in southern Vermont continue to 
increase ominously. Red areas could easily'
see some tree and power line damage from this.

Already, as of 6 a.m. there have been reports of 5.5 inches of snow around Burlington and up in Calais Washington County. 

The main body of heavy precipitation with this storm had moved into southern Vermont by 7 a.m. and was steadily making progress northward. 

It was still coming down as snow almost everywhere. Except around Bennington, where snow flipped to freezing rain at around 6 a.m.   This initial thump of snow will come down at a rate of one to two inches per hour, which is very heavy. 

Road conditions that were not great early this morning will become much worse as a result, as it's hard to keep up with that intense of a snowfall. 

For many of us, this initial thump will comprise a pretty big share of our total snowfall with this.

THE MIX

The following is just the best guess on how the mix and/or changeover to sleet and freezing rain will play out in Vermont today. 

I guarantee it won't go exactly like this - it's just too hard to predict. But at least it gives you a rough idea of how it will unfold. 

Sleet should start mixing in across southern Vermont by mid morning and it will move north to near the Canadian border. The sleet was already on Vermont's doorstep just before dawn. Albany, New York reported heavy sleet falling as of 6 a.m. 

Snowing hard along Route 7 in Ferrisburgh, Vermont
in this traffic cam grab a 7:45 a.m.

Yuck. 

It's looking like the period of sleet and maybe some freezing rain will not last terribly long this afternoon in far northern Vermont, so that could boost snow totals up there. The area of Vermont likely to get the least amount of sleet is up in the northwest corner. 

I noticed the forecast for St.. Albans has gone from an eight inch snow and sleet accumulation in yesterday's forecast to 13 inches with this morning's prediction 

Again, take it with a grain of salt. Or sleet in this case.  This is a pull  your hair out forecast. We won't know the extent of the mix, really until after it's done and over. 

The main area that should have several hours of ice is probably along and south of Route 2.  Closer to Route 2, chances are it will be mostly sleet, with very little freezing rain. 

In far southern Vermont, a long period of mixed precipitation should dramatically cut total snowfall with this storm to between four and eight inches. Sleet is bad, but at least it doesn't stick to trees and power lines all that well. Freezing rain, however, does.

So I worry about how much freezing rain will accumulate in some areas along and south of Route 4.   

That the snow changed directly to freezing rain and not sleet in Bennington early today makes me nervous. Does that mean more freezing rain and less sleet that expected could hit southern Vermont? It could, which would definitely worsen the ice damage and the power outages. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington had the same thought. They increased the amount of expected ice accumulation over southern Vermont, with some areas getting more than a third of an inch. 

That weight of that ice, combined with the expected strong winds later, would keep those outages going all day and through tonight as tree branches, whole trees and wires snap under all that ice.  Something to watch.  . 

TODAY'S WIND

We're still looking at strong downslope winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains today. 

The first stirrings of the wind were evident just before dawn in places like Bennington and Rutland, where winds were gusting to 25 mph or so at dawn.

Those winds should ramp up along the western slopes through the day. The high wind warning continues in Rutland County for expected gusts to at least 60 mph. The wind advisory in eastern Addison and Chittenden counties has been upgraded to a high wind warning, as 60 mph gusts are now expected all the way  up through places like Ripton, Huntington, Underhill and Cambridge. 

Isolated 70 mph gusts aren't out of the question. 

Away from the western slopes, winds might be gusty at times, but not particularly dangerous. 

Even though the downslope winds will make the precipitation fall more lightly than elsewhere, those winds, combined with the snow and a little ice, will be more than capable of causing power outages. 

DRAMATIC EVENING

Late this afternoon and early this evening,  things will take a dramatic turn as the storm gets to our east, flushing out all the warm air aloft.  We should get a pretty big burst of snow nearly statewide, with snowfall rates of an inch an hour again for a time.  

However, it looks like a switch to sleet and/or 
freezing rain had already occurred along Route
9 in Woodford in far southern Vermont. 

The snow should get a little lighter and more showery later at night, especially in the valleys. But because the storm is so strong, the winds - this time from the west and northwest should really start to crank up. 

Overnight and well into Monday, we should have frequent gusts to 40 mph across most areas of the state.

Areas along the eastern slopes of the Greens, and in a wider area of southern Vermont, could see gusts to 60 mph.  

All that wind will exacerbate any power outages, especially where ice covers trees in southern Vermont. 

It will be powdery snow tonight, so the strong winds will blow it around horrifically. Not only will the road surfaces be in rough shape, you won't be able to see where you are going with all that snow blowing around.

Wind chills will fall to below zero by late tonight. If you get stuck out there in your car, you'd better have a lot of warm blankets. It'll be nasty.  

MONDAY

On Monday, little snow will fall in the valleys, but snow showers will continue to pile up minor additional accumulations in the mountains. 

But the strong winds will continue, as will the blowing snow and the bitter cold. Highs will only make it into the teens, and wind chills will stay below zero. The blowing snow will set back the efforts to clear the roads. Also, it will interfere with crews trying to restore electricity to anyone that doesn't have it. 

BOTTOM LINE

I'm still saying stay home today, it's not worth getting out there on the roads. If you get up early this morning in far northern Vermont, you'll see that it's barely snowing. That will lead to a false sense of security, because the snow will really crank by mid-morning.

As I mentioned, the wild card is the sleet and freezing rain and the questions of how far north it gets and how long it lasts. 

Best guess is by the time we're done Monday morning, six to 12 inches of snow and maybe some sleet will have accumulated north of Route 2.  There might be some locally higher amounts. 

Central Vermont gets 5 to 10 inches of snow and sleet, again, with a few pockets of higher totals. Southern Vermont will probably end up with a crusty mess of four to eight inches of snow, sleet and ice.

Charge your devices this morning and get your LED candles out, especially in southern Vermont as we do face at least scattered power outages. 

Like I said the other day, this will easily be the worst winter storm this season.  But we've had worse.

I'll have updates as warranted all day, 

Saturday Evening Vermont Winter Storm: Forecasts Worsens; More Wind, Some Areas Worrying Amounts Of Ice

Predictions for ice accumulation from freezing rain
in southern Vermont has increased since this 
morning. Those red zones are most prone to power
outages and tree damage.

 The forecast trends for our big storm tomorrow in Vermont have trended toward more impacts and trouble  than earlier predictions.   

Power outages look like they'll probably be more widespread than first thought, due updated forecasts that predict both more wind and in some areas more ice than previously thought. 

Bitter cold temperatures along with the wind Sunday night and Monday will make things more dangerous. For people who lose their electricity, and especially for those trying to restore it, and the crews trying to clean up the roads. 

Obviously not everyone is going to lose power, but some of us will.  I'd get your LED candles out, and charge your devices by early tomorrow morning. 

This is going to be a bad storm that you'll want to take seriously. 

So, let's break down what we - and, more precisely, the National Weather Service think will happen in the course of this storm. 

TONIGHT

Light snow was moving in right on schedule late this afternoon as darkness gathers in Vermont. For most of the night, it won't snow super hard, but enough to coat the roads and such. Wind won't be much of a factor, but it will continue to increase toward dawn. 

SUNDAY

Let's face it. This will be the ultimate stormy day in Vermont.  Stay home. 

We'll start the day with heavy snow statewide, though it will start mixing with sleet and freezing rain pretty early in the day across far southern Vermont. For most of us, we will have gone over to mostly sleet by late morning, and continue in that vein until early evening, when we switch back to snow.

It's going to be wild in many areas during the day.  They're continuing the high wind warning for Sunday in Rutland County where east to southeast winds will gust to 60 mph.   

Though strong, possibly damaging winds are forecast
along the western slopes of the Green Mountains 
Sunday, the entire region will have strong gusts
Monday, possibly exacerbating power outages
that will start on Sunday.

Further north, gusts should reach 55 mph in a lot of spots along the western slopes of the Greens from Addison County pretty much all the way to the Canadian border. 

All along the western slopes, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of isolated gusts to 70 mph. Away from the western slopes, winds in some spots could gust to 30 to 40 mph.  Very miserable if you're outside in that getting pelted by sleet. 

In terms of mixed precipitation, it's still looking like northern Vermont will have mostly sleet during the day. 

There might be some freezing rain mixed in. But at this point it looks like not much. We'll have to watch this, though. It's always possible that the freezing rain could work its way further north. 

The downslope winds might cut down on the amount of precipitation somewhat along the immediate western slopes, but it will still be nasty, no doubt about that. 

I've gotten much more worried about Vermont's four southernmost counties. Forecasts for the amount of ice accumulating from freezing rain have gone up. If you get above a quarter inch, you start to lose tree branches and possibly power lines.

Most previous forecasts indicates only a few isolate areas would get as much as a quarter inch of ice.

Now, some areas are now expected to get at least a third of an inch of ice. Not everywhere in southern Vermont, but some towns will get really iced up.  I've seen a few ominous forecasts that indicate up to a half inch of ice from freezing rain down in that section of the state. That would really cause a mess with damaged trees and power lines. 

Especially considering what's going to hit us Sunday night and Monday. 

SUNDAY NIGHT

The still intensifying double-barreled storm will begin to move to our east Sunday evening. That will open the doors for a flood of colder air coming in. And a ton of wind. 

Mixed precipitation should quickly change to snow Sunday evening. It might come down pretty hard in spots during the evening before getting lighter and more showery later. 

The main story, though will be the strong winds and falling temperatures. A high wind watch is in effect Sunday night through Monday along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains and in all of Bennington and Windham counties due to expected gusts of up to 60 mph.

Those not under the high wind watch will probably end up with a wind advisory for gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range starting Sunday night. 

All that wind is enough to cause new power outages.

Southern Vermont could be in real trouble. The freezing rain during the day will come with east winds, which will focus the weight of the ice on trees on their eastern sides.

The strong winds Sunday night and Monday will come from the west. With the eastern side of the trees weighted down by ice, it will be that much easier for trees to topple over.

New power outages, blowing snow and wind chills that will become dangerous overnight Sunday into Monday will make for trying times across Vermont. 

I can't imagine the trip to work will be fun Monday morning. Those of you in remote areas might not be able to get out anyway, due to fallen trees, wires and snow drifts. 

Overall, we're still expecting six to 10 inches of snow and sleet, with more than that in the northern mountains.  

We still have some question marks. Those of you north of Route 2 could get even deeper accumulations if we get less sleet than anticipated. There's still a lot of spread in expected snowfall amounts. For instances, about eight inches of snow and sleet are expected in Burlington and St. Albans. 

But there's a 10 percent chance those cities would end up with 14 to 18 inches of snow and sleet, and a 10 percent chance they'll get as little as four or five inches. 

Southern Vermont could get even more ice than I outlined, which would add to the trouble down there .

Bottom line:

We will have some surprises Sunday, maybe with forecast misses on the amount of snow, ice or wind, but we do know it will be a nasty day.  Sunday will be the best day of the winter to just hunker down at home.

If we get a lot of power outages you'll need to check on elderly or vulnerable neighbors who could run into real trouble real fast if their houses get cold from lack of electricity. 

The one good bit of news is it appears that this giant storm will end, for now, our seemingly endless parade of storms. 

After a cold first half of the week, it looks like late week and next weekend might not be exactly warm, but certainly more tolerable. 

Saturday Morning Vermont Storm Update: High Winds To Worsen Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain

Latest snow and sleet forecast map issued Saturday 
morning shows little change. Most snow probably
northwest. A little less accumulation along
western slopes of Green Mountain where strong
downslope winds could limit the intensity
of the snow or sleet.

 We're still bracing for quite a Vermont storm on Sunday, and to an extent Monday. 

The forecast for a thump of snow, then a lot of mixed precipitation, then a little more snow has in general not changed since last night.  However, forecasters are getting more and more concerned about wind. 

In addition to the existing winter storm warning, a high wind warning is in effect for Rutland County Sunday.  

Further north a wind advisory is in effect for the western slopes of the Green Mountains pretty much all the way to the Canadian border.  Strong winds are also looking like they will be a factor at the tail end of the storm later Sunday night and Monday. 

As we usually do, let's get into the daily details. Bear with me, there's a lot to get into with this one,

TODAY: As expected, it's starting off cold, with lows in the single numbers with a few below zero readings. It won't get much warmer as skies gradually cloud over.  You'll see on weather radar this afternoon what looks like widespread snow moving in. But the Arctic air over us is dry, so most of that will evaporate before hitting the ground. 

We shouldn't really see anything more than a few snowflakes until after dark. 

TONIGHT: We'll mostly just see light to moderate snow overnight, the kind we're used to, and don't consider a big deal.  Sure, the roads will get slippery, but it won't be anything that unusual. The main show is on Sunday. 

Freezing rain forecast map issued Saturday 
morning by the National Weather Service.
Far southern Vermont could have some
real ice trouble, especially as winds
get stronger Sunday night. 

SUNDAY: A rough winter day for sure, with some places more rough than others. Everybody except perhaps extreme southwest Vermont will start the day with snow falling at a pretty good clip. 

Then, gradually through the morning and very early afternoon far north, the snow will mix with and change to mostly sleet. The sleet will spread south to north across the state.

Wind Worries

The storm's orientation now appears poised to cause one of those damaging downslope wind events along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  I still don't think this will be as bad as the twin wind storms of January 2024, but this will be bad enough. 

Rutland County will probably, arguably see the worst effects of this storm as a snow to sleet and freezing rain scenario in Rutland County should combine with gusts to or even over 50 or 60 mph during the day. It looks like there, the potentially damaging gusts might not be limited to the immediate western slopes like in Mendon or Shrewsbury. 

The damaging gusts could extend into more populated areas like Rutland City and Town, and even as far west as Castleton, Poultney, West Rutland and Wells. 

If enough freezing rain mixes in, it will be all the worse because the wind will be hitting trees and power lines burdened with some ice. Even if everything stays sleet and ice doesn't cling to trees, the winds will be strong enough to knock some of them down, or at least remove some branches.

Further north, a wind advisory is up, as noted along the rest of the Green Mountain western slopes. Places like Ripton, Bristol, Huntington, Underhill, Cambridge, eastern Enosburg, Bakersfield  and Richford could see wind gusts to 55 mph.  Locally higher in some of the most wind prone areas. 

The one saving grace is precipitation - whatever it may be - will be somewhat lighter in areas with the strongest winds. The downslope winds tend to locally discourage heavy snow or sleet or rain or whatever. 

Forecast wind gust map for Sunday. Orange stripe
along western Green Mountain slopes indicate gusts
at or over 50 mph. This map doesn't include expected
strong wind later Sunday night and Monday. 

Also, places well away from the western slopes, like most of eastern Vermont and the Champlain Valley mostly along and west of Route 7 shouldn't have all that much wind during the day Sunday. It could gust to 25 to 30 mph there, annoying when you're being hit in the face by sleet, but not terribly dangerous.

Mixed Precipitation

There's still disagreement among meteorologists as to exactly when the changeover will happen, how far north the worst of the sleet and freezing rain gets, and what proportion of this storm will be snow, and which proportion will be sleet. 

I think everyone should expect at least some sleet, but expect surprises. Some places will get less snow and more sleet than currently in the forecast, and in some places it might be the opposite. The further south you go, though, the more mixed precipitation you'll get.

A wild card is freezing rain. While it looks like the majority of this mess will be sleet, freezing rain should mix in, especially the further south you go.  Freezing rain is much worse, because it will cling to trees and weigh them down.  That has implications for Sunday night and Monday. More on that in a bit.

Unless the forecast changes a lot, I think northern Vermont will see very little if any freezing rain. It'll be a sleet thing up there. 

The further south you go, the more freezing rain you encounter. I am especially worried about a few areas in far southern Vermont, where a quarter inch or more of ice could accumulate on everything. Once you go above a quarter inch of ice, you start losing tree branches and power lines. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

As what by then will be a twin storm system - one a little to our north, the other strengthening along the New England Coast, colder air will sweep in Sunday evening in all levels of the atmosphere over Vermont. 

That'll change everything back to snow. There could be a really heavy burst of snow for a little while in the evening north. Then it should start to taper off overnight, first in southern Vermont valleys and gradually working its way so that by Monday morning, it will be mostly the mountains still getting snow. 

Strong west to northwest winds will develop.  A high wind watch is up for far southern Vermont Sunday night through Monday evening for possible gusts as strong as 60 mph. 

If there's ice on the trees from Sunday's freezing rain down there, that's a recipe for more power outages. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, expect wind gusts of 40 mph later Sunday night and Monday. The eastern slopes of the Green Mountains could see 50 mph gusts. We might need a wind advisory for later Sunday night and Monday. 

The strong winds will blow around the fluffier snow that falls atop the likely icy crusty Sunday night. Travel will be no picnic on Monday, either, especially as temperatures will stay quite low. 

BOTTOM LINE/WHAT TO DO

Forecasters in general are still calling for a pretty substantial total accumulation of six to nine inches of snow and sleet for most of us.  Sleet is heavy, so if you get a lot of it, just be forewarned that cleanup won't be a breeze. 

Because of the extra snow at the tail end of the storm the northern and central Green Mountains could do very well with this storm, despite a layer of sleet that might be in there. I would not at all be surprised if some northern Vermont ski areas end up with well over a foot of new snow by Monday night. 

Also, if for some reason the sleet doesn't make it all the way to the Canadian border, some far northern Vermont towns could see over a foot of snow.  All depends on the sleet.

Stay off the roads Sunday.  Especially if you're in the high wind warning and advisory areas, where debris on the roads or falling branches would add to the danger. Charge your devices and get your LED candles out if you're in the high wind/freezing rain zones. You might well lose power on Sunday, and it could take awhile to get the electric back. Especially with strong winds continuing Monday. 

Pro tip: If you are not going to move your car until at least Monday, let the early snow pile up on it.  Then any freezing rain will fall atop the snow, making it easier to clean off the car. If the windshields are covered with snow, the freezing rain won't cling directly to the windows, so you won't have to break your arms chopping and scraping the ice. 

Expect a rough commute Monday morning for much of Vermont, too. It's hard to scrape all that ice off the roads, especially as temperatures will be low enough for salt to become ineffective. Snow will continue in some areas Monday morning, too, especially in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Blowing snow will be an issue. 

Despite getting into the second half of February, winter looks like it will hang tough for quite awhile yet. It'll be very cold the first half of the week, with highs in the teens, low near zero. The cold will relax somewhat by the end of the week though. 

It still look like a new nor'easter will go to far to our south and east to bother us next Thursday, but that's not a unanimous opinion among the computer models. We'll still need to keep an eye on it just in case.   

Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Forecast Keeps Getting Uglier

Snow and sleet forecast accumulation map from the 
National Weather Service in South Burlington, updated
late Friday afternoon. Still a low-confidence forecast,
as there's still lots of questions about to what 
extent sleet and freezing rain will enter the picture. 

 As of late Friday afternoon, the trend toward more and more sleet and freezing rain with our upcoming Vermont storm continues. 

We still get a decent thump of snow, but you're also going to be dealing with potentially a thick layer of sleet, and possibly harder freezing rain ice with this ugly system.

The predicted overall chain of events hasn't changed much since this morning, except for the fact that even more sleet and freezing rain is win the cards than predictions indicated this morning. At least in the opinion of many, but not all local meteorologists. 

As we've been saying all along, the worst of the ice should hit southern Vermont, but all of us should get at least some sleet. Unfortunately, most of the heaviest precipitation rates will coincide with the time that sleet and freezing rain are likeliest. 

To nobody's surprise, the winter storm watch we had this morning has been upgraded to a winter storm warning statewide. A watch means conditions are favorable for a storm, a warning means it's happening now or inevitable.

We're still in the inevitable category because there's no really dangerous weather coming in until Saturday night, really.  The warning goes from Saturday evening until early Monday morning, so this is no quick hitter like the last few storms have been.  

This will be the worst winter storm Vermont has seen this year.  It might not be the worst winter storm we've ever seen, but it's one to take seriously. 

Still a lot of questions as to how much freezing rain
will enter the picture with Sunday's storm. 

Aside from the snow, the ice, the terrible roads, the heavy stuff well to clean up, power outages are starting to become more likely. 

Let's break down the chain of events

TONIGHT:

Partly cloud and cold. Lows will be within a few degrees either side of zero. Other than needing to dress for the conditions, there's really no weather or travel concerns today.  

SATURDAY

It's your day to stock up on supplies if you need to. If there's any morning sun, it will fade behind increasing, darkening clouds through the days. Light snow will begin to spread southwest to northeast across the state in the late afternoon. It'll stay cold, with  highs staying near 20. Snow might not reach the Northeast Kingdom until well after dark. 

SATURDAY NIGHT

Snow will continue. Lightly at first, but picking up steam as we approach dawn.   It'll still be too cold for any sleet, except maybe late at night in far southwest Vermont. Most of us should have a decent two to four inches of new snow by the time dawn breaks Sunday.

SUNDAY

Here's where things get more dangerous, and more complicated. And thus, harder to forecast. What I'll outline is what the National Weather Service thinks will happen as of Friday night.  But it could change. If it does change, I think the trend might continue away from snow and more toward sleet and freezing rain. 

If our scenario plays out as planned, it'll be snowing pretty hard Sunday morning. But things will starting mixing with and changing to sleet and, eventually freezing rain in many spots starting in the late morning. 

If there's more freezing rain than expected with the
upcoming storm, tree damage and power outages
could come into play. We're unsure of this so far.

The snow will start out light and fluffy early, but become wetter and heavier as the morning goes on. 

Not because it'll be all that warm down here on the ground. But because the snow will start to partly melt as it falls through a warm layer high above

This has implications for power outages. The wetter snow will start to sag and weigh down some trees. It won't be enough to cause the power lines to break, but it'll help set the stage for problems later.

The sleet will add to the weight, but at least some of it tends to bounce off and not stick to things.

 But now, it looks like some freezing rain could make it all the way to the Canadian border. The mix or sleet or freezing rain could last six to eight hours, if the National Weather Service is correct. 

That said, opinions as of Friday evening among local meteorologists are pretty divided. The National Weather Service has sleet and possible freezing rain all the way to the Canadian border by perhaps noon. Other meteorologists question whether the changeover will happen that fast, or last particularly long, or even if there will be much sleet at all in far northern Vermont.  

I don't know which is right, and no meteorologist in their right mind has a lot of confidence in the forecast right now.

But I do know that you should plan on not driving anywhere on Sunday, and  plan on perhaps anything frozen or freezing coming from the sky, be it snow, sleet or freezing rain. A complete changeover to plain rain is not in the cards, except just maybe in extreme southern Vermont, like in Bennington or Brattleboro.

Even there, if it goes to plain rain - a big if - that won't last long. It's definitely going to be a snow and ice event for us. 

If there's a fair amount of freezing rain anywhere, that will add to the weight of the snow on trees and power lines. Then, the wind will pick up Sunday evening and overnight, and that's where we'll see the risk of some power outages.

This won't be anything remotely like the Great Ice Storm of 1998, but we do face the risk of scattered power outages.  The biggest risk of a fairly thick layer of ice from freezing rain with this storm is in southern Vermont. 

SUNDAY NIGHT

The mix goes over to snow, and tends to become lighter in most places. Northern Vermont is most likely to continue to see some snow accumulations overnight. It'll get windy, with gusts to over 35 mph in many spots. 

MONDAY:

The snow showers will continue in the mountains. Up there, a few to several inches of snow will fall.  In the valleys, there will be little accumulation. But it will be a miserable day, with cold winds continuing to gust past 35 mph in many areas. Temperatures will stay in the teens, and wind chills will e below zero.  Blowing snow will add to the Arctic wasteland feel to the day.

BOTTOM LINE

The National Weather Service is still expecting total accumulations of snow and sleet to be in the six to nine inch range statewide. There's still a big bust potential. If the warm air aloft really wins out, there would be less, maybe three to eight inches, with a lot of ice, which would suck.

If the warm air aloft turns wimpy, we could see more than a foot in parts of northern Vermont and easily six to 10 inches south before.

I'll post another update Saturday morning, as I'm sure we'll have further updates and forecast refinements. 

Weekend Storm Trending Icier In Vermont; Sunday To Be Miserable

The National Weather Service's first crack at predicting
snow and sleet accumulation from the upcoming storm
This depicts six to nine inches. But be ready for
possible sharp revisions either way on these totals.

 I'm not the least bit surprised by this overnight development:

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington (and Albany for our southernmost two counties) has issued a winter storm watch for all of Vermont. It'll start Saturday night and last through Sunday evening. 

Though precipitation for most of us might end up lasting at least into early Monday morning. 

As an aside, Burlington is now pretty much in a lock for having a snowier winter month than normal, which has become a rarity.

 If Burlington gets 1.3 inches of snow or sleet with this one, which will happen, February's snowfall there will be above average. 

The trend  overnight with our upcoming storm has not been our friend, as - so far at least - most of us should see a fair amount of sleet with this. Southern Vermont in particular will need to watch out for freezing rain as well. 

On to the particulars, as updated this morning.

TODAY/SATURDAY

The cold winds will continue today, but at least there's nothing to worry about on the roads, other than patches of lingering ice from yesterday. The blustery gusts should start to taper off as we go through the afternoon.

Most of Saturday looks dry, too, as clouds increase. Dry air feeding in from Arctic high pressure to the north should keep light snow at bay until mid to late afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Steady light snow should spread across the state overnight. It will remain snow all night and into Sunday morning. We'll get a few inches out of this. 

SUNDAY

Here's where the trouble really starts. 

As we mentioned in yesterday's post, one main storm will travel from the Ohio Valley then into northwestern New York. Another will try to form along the coast. 

A preliminary look at possible ice accumulations with
the upcoming storm. Keep a sharp eye on southern
Vermont for revisions. If expected ice accumulation
goes above 0.30 inches or snow, you begin to have
 some definite trouble with fallen tree branches
and power lines. 

However, it's looking like the eventual storm in New York will be the dominate one longer, which would allow warm air to come in aloft, for our mixed precipitation.

This is the scenario we had on Thursday, except this one is more intense. And there's the potential for more warm air aloft for a longer period than we had on Thursday. 

Unless the forecast shifts, this almost guarantees a shift to a snow/sleet mixture, then all sleet during the day Sunday. 

The mix should start in the morning in southwest Vermont and spread through the rest of the state by afternoon. 

Worse, the warm air aloft in southern Vermont will be thicker and a little closer to the ground. In the north, what will start as rain in the toasty air high above will hit the cold air, freeze on the way down and hit us as annoying ice pellets.

As horrible as sleet is, at least it bounces off things and doesn't do a great job of sticking to trees and power lines, so you don't run into broken tree branches and power lines. 

The risk in southern Vermont is the rain for a time won't freeze on the way down and only turn to ice once it lands on your road, driveway, trees and power lines.  So far, the amount of freezing rain in the forecast doesn't sound like enough to cause a lot of tree or power line damage.

But if things shift a little more and the freezing rain ends up lasting longer than expected, all bets are off, so we'll need to watch this. 

Eventually, Sunday evening or night, the cold air should start crashing back in at all levels of the atmosphere, changing it all back to snow for awhile. Then it tapers off Monday.

Right now, the National Weather Service has all of Vermont seeing a solid (maybe too solid!) six to nine inches of snow and sleet out of this. 

CAVEATS AND WHAT TO DO

The above is what the National Weather Service and other meteorologist envision how this storm will play out.  Given how complex and marginal the temperatures will be in different layers of the atmosphere, this is a tough forecast.

It has a lot of bust potential, as we still could see more mix than expected, or maybe even less mix and more snow.  Forecasters were making revisions right up through almost the entire storm Thursday, and I expect nothing different on Sunday. 

Bottom line: Get your supplies if you need them today and or tomorrow morning or early afternoon. Stay put at home Sunday. 

We know the weather is going to be ugly on Sunday. We're just not 100 percent sure on what brand of ugly. 

Southern Vermont in particular has to stay on its toes as if they get more freezing rain than expected, power outages come into play.  A still-unlikely but not impossible worst case scenario for southern Vermont is a lot of freezing rain with widespread   tree damage and long lasting power outages. 

As I noted yesterday, this is a wide ranging storm that will cause huge problems. Most places east of the Mississippi River are going to have some trouble with this, be it floods, ice, snow, severe weather, tornadoes, high winds or intense cold. 

BEYOND SUNDAY

Don't anticipate any kind of early spring here in Vermont.  It'll be quite windy and cold Monday with flurries, with snow showers piling up a few more inches of fluff in the Green Mountains. 

Another nor'easter looks likely on Thursday. The early read on this one is it will either pass a wee bit too far south of Vermont for us to get much, or perhaps throw a few inches of snow at southern Vermont.

But we've seen a trend this month of later forecasts drawing storms further north than earlier anticipated. If that happens with Thursday's storm - and it might - we might be looking at yet another winter storm. 

Whether or not that happens, I'm seeing no signs of any kind of real thaw at least until the opening days of March.