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| Predictions for ice accumulation from freezing rain in southern Vermont has increased since this morning. Those red zones are most prone to power outages and tree damage. |
Power outages look like they'll probably be more widespread than first thought, due updated forecasts that predict both more wind and in some areas more ice than previously thought.
Bitter cold temperatures along with the wind Sunday night and Monday will make things more dangerous. For people who lose their electricity, and especially for those trying to restore it, and the crews trying to clean up the roads.
Obviously not everyone is going to lose power, but some of us will. I'd get your LED candles out, and charge your devices by early tomorrow morning.
This is going to be a bad storm that you'll want to take seriously.
So, let's break down what we - and, more precisely, the National Weather Service think will happen in the course of this storm.
TONIGHT
Light snow was moving in right on schedule late this afternoon as darkness gathers in Vermont. For most of the night, it won't snow super hard, but enough to coat the roads and such. Wind won't be much of a factor, but it will continue to increase toward dawn.
SUNDAY
Let's face it. This will be the ultimate stormy day in Vermont. Stay home.
We'll start the day with heavy snow statewide, though it will start mixing with sleet and freezing rain pretty early in the day across far southern Vermont. For most of us, we will have gone over to mostly sleet by late morning, and continue in that vein until early evening, when we switch back to snow.
It's going to be wild in many areas during the day. They're continuing the high wind warning for Sunday in Rutland County where east to southeast winds will gust to 60 mph.
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| Though strong, possibly damaging winds are forecast along the western slopes of the Green Mountains Sunday, the entire region will have strong gusts Monday, possibly exacerbating power outages that will start on Sunday. |
Further north, gusts should reach 55 mph in a lot of spots along the western slopes of the Greens from Addison County pretty much all the way to the Canadian border.
All along the western slopes, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of isolated gusts to 70 mph. Away from the western slopes, winds in some spots could gust to 30 to 40 mph. Very miserable if you're outside in that getting pelted by sleet.
In terms of mixed precipitation, it's still looking like northern Vermont will have mostly sleet during the day.
There might be some freezing rain mixed in. But at this point it looks like not much. We'll have to watch this, though. It's always possible that the freezing rain could work its way further north.
The downslope winds might cut down on the amount of precipitation somewhat along the immediate western slopes, but it will still be nasty, no doubt about that.
I've gotten much more worried about Vermont's four southernmost counties. Forecasts for the amount of ice accumulating from freezing rain have gone up. If you get above a quarter inch, you start to lose tree branches and possibly power lines.
Most previous forecasts indicates only a few isolate areas would get as much as a quarter inch of ice.
Now, some areas are now expected to get at least a third of an inch of ice. Not everywhere in southern Vermont, but some towns will get really iced up. I've seen a few ominous forecasts that indicate up to a half inch of ice from freezing rain down in that section of the state. That would really cause a mess with damaged trees and power lines.
Especially considering what's going to hit us Sunday night and Monday.
SUNDAY NIGHT
The still intensifying double-barreled storm will begin to move to our east Sunday evening. That will open the doors for a flood of colder air coming in. And a ton of wind.
Mixed precipitation should quickly change to snow Sunday evening. It might come down pretty hard in spots during the evening before getting lighter and more showery later.
The main story, though will be the strong winds and falling temperatures. A high wind watch is in effect Sunday night through Monday along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains and in all of Bennington and Windham counties due to expected gusts of up to 60 mph.
Those not under the high wind watch will probably end up with a wind advisory for gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range starting Sunday night.
All that wind is enough to cause new power outages.
Southern Vermont could be in real trouble. The freezing rain during the day will come with east winds, which will focus the weight of the ice on trees on their eastern sides.
The strong winds Sunday night and Monday will come from the west. With the eastern side of the trees weighted down by ice, it will be that much easier for trees to topple over.
New power outages, blowing snow and wind chills that will become dangerous overnight Sunday into Monday will make for trying times across Vermont.
I can't imagine the trip to work will be fun Monday morning. Those of you in remote areas might not be able to get out anyway, due to fallen trees, wires and snow drifts.
Overall, we're still expecting six to 10 inches of snow and sleet, with more than that in the northern mountains.
We still have some question marks. Those of you north of Route 2 could get even deeper accumulations if we get less sleet than anticipated. There's still a lot of spread in expected snowfall amounts. For instances, about eight inches of snow and sleet are expected in Burlington and St. Albans.
But there's a 10 percent chance those cities would end up with 14 to 18 inches of snow and sleet, and a 10 percent chance they'll get as little as four or five inches.
Southern Vermont could get even more ice than I outlined, which would add to the trouble down there .
Bottom line:
We will have some surprises Sunday, maybe with forecast misses on the amount of snow, ice or wind, but we do know it will be a nasty day. Sunday will be the best day of the winter to just hunker down at home.
If we get a lot of power outages you'll need to check on elderly or vulnerable neighbors who could run into real trouble real fast if their houses get cold from lack of electricity.
The one good bit of news is it appears that this giant storm will end, for now, our seemingly endless parade of storms.
After a cold first half of the week, it looks like late week and next weekend might not be exactly warm, but certainly more tolerable.
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