Signs Beginning To Point To Possibly Snowier Vermont February Regime

The next round of snow, which could begin as rain later
this afternoon, will focus on the north and mountains
again. A number of places north of Route 2 will
see three to six inches of new snow. Areas
near Burlington should get less than that, and 
far southern Vermont will probably miss out.
This forecast has a high bust potential due to
questions about temperatures when things hit.

As we've previously reported, snowfall has been lacking in Vermont, except for in some areas in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Signs point toward a snowier February regime in the Green Mountain State, but there's no guarantee and plenty of questions. 

We do know that the weather pattern has become stormier, and chances are it will stay that way for awhile.

  As I noted Sunday, a  new weather pattern that puts Vermont in a battleground between springlike warmth from the South and Arctic air from the north will probably steer storms toward us.

On top of this, long range forecast guidance has trended colder here in northern New England. If that pattern holds - and I admit that's a pretty big if - storms would pass near Vermont or just to our south. 

That would provide us plenty of snow or worse, mixed precipitation this month. More on that in a bit. 

Our first installment of snow came through overnight, with our expected one to three inches of rather fluffy snow. I had an even two inches here in St. Albans, Vermont.

TODAY/TOMORROW

The next little installment of precipitation isn't going to be so easy.  We have a break in the snow today, and most of us will have that mini-thaw that we've been expecting. Most of us will see highs well into the 30s to near 40. .

That complicates your trip home from work this evening. A cold front will be coming in with its own band of precipitation.  In warmer valleys, it'll start off as a cold rain, then gradually mix with and  change to snow. 

In northwestern Vermont and along the Canadian border, and in many higher elevations, it might be all snow, or at worst start off as a mix of rain and snow. Even though this is happening today, I'm still seeing a lot of questions as to how much rain vs. how much snow, and when the changeover to snow might happen.  

It's going to be marginal between rain and snow in many places, even in the north, late this afternoon and perhaps early this evening. It's a tricky forecast. If rain dominates longer, we obviously won't see as much snow. If the snow wins out more than expected, we could see a little more.

If things work out and time themselves poorly, this will be a mess for those driving home late this afternoon. That slushy, wet snow tends to be particularly slick. I've also noticed many people behind the wheel think slush is just glorified water and you can speed right through. That leads to crashes and slide offs. More joy on the highway. 

The snow this evening will tend to be wet and heavy, which is a departure from the kind of snow we've seen all winter.  Later on, the snow will turn fluffier. 

Overall, accumulations look to be about 2.5 to 6 inches north of Route 2 in Vermont (though less than that near Burlington, where one or two inches looks more likely). A winter weather advisory is in effect for the Vermont and New York counties adjacent to the Canadian border, with the Champlain Valley excluded from that 

It looks like far southern Vermont will get nothing, or just a dusting out of this one, since most of the good moisture - be it rain or snow - will slide by to the north of those areas. . 

The snow will have ended by Tuesday morning, but there probably will be some lingering headaches on the highways for your blissful morning commute. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Wednesday should be dry and cold as our temperature roller coaster continues on unabated. 

The next storm comes along Thursday. It looks like we're going to continue the trend of getting mixed precipitation into the forecast.

It's not a blockbuster, but chances are it will be messy.    Computer models are not agreeing well on this storm at all, so we're going to have to wait for updates to get any smidge of certainty. 

It could end up being a snow to mix to rain scenario if the storm goes to our northwest and another storm doesn't form along the coast. Or the storm could come closer to us, or something real could get going in eastern New England.  That would keep is in a mix of snow and maybe freezing rain, too.

Either way, it looks ugly. But who knows? The storm might surprise us with a third option we're not aware of yet.  Watch this space. 

LATER THIS MONTH

Something else seems likely to come along around Sunday. Forecasts now are leaning toward snow, but there's still a lot of question marks about that, too.  Beyond that, early indications are the weather pattern will stay busy for us through midmonth at least. 

I have seen a pattern in many recent years in which winter snowfall in Vermont is back loaded - meaning the bulk of it has been coming in February, March and April.  It's not every year, and I don't know why it's happening, but it seems to be a bit of a trend. 

Last year, a little more than half the season's snow total came in February, March and April. True, the total of 60.8 inches was below normal, but you get the idea.

Anything could happen of course. But it'll be a long wait before winter storms are no longer a concern in Vermont.  Give it until later in April, at least