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| Snowfall amounts tonight and tomorrow are still expected to be modest, partly because of mixed precipitation and partly because the best moisture and heaviest precipitation will be in southern Quebec. Still, east facing Green Mountain slopes can still expect two to five inches of new snow. |
This will still promises to be a variety pack, with snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, wind and fluctuations temperatures.
Those temperatures varied widely across Vermont today, with low teens up on the Canadian border to low 30s down by Bennington. The incoming storm will shift those temperatures northward, hence the mixed bag expected.
If you're a snow lover, you're wishing the track of the storm would be about 100 miles south of where it will go, which is across extreme southern Quebec as it stands now.
Up there, some places are getting a foot of snow. If the storm was 100 miles further south, it would be much of Vermont in the heavy snow zone.
UPDATES
The overall premise of what we're going to get with this storm hasn't changed too much, but of course, there are always revisions that come in during the day
Here are some of the updates:
The winter weather advisory in Vermont has been expanded to cover the entire state except northern Vermont west of the Green Mountains. Most places under the advisory can expect two to four inches of snow, but results will vary. More on that in a bit.
A wind advisory is up for the western slopes of the Green Mountains from just after midnight through late morning. Downslope winds could gust to over 55 mph in these areas, probably causing a few scattered problems with fallen trees and power lines.
This will by no means be nearly as bad or as widespread as the big, destructive downslope twin wind storms of January, 2024. But still, if you're on the western slopes, you might want to charge your devices and get your LED candles out, just in case.
It'll get windy pretty much everywhere else in Vermont overnight as well, so before and around dawn, expect to hear the roar of the wind through the trees and things rattling around outside.
Those strong south to southeast winds will really enhance the precipitation along the east slopes and summits of the Green Mountains.
AMOUNTS
A secondary storm will develop near Long Island and head toward Maine while the northern storm is heading into Quebec.
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| Clouds just starting to increase from the southwest as Vermont's next winter storm approaches from the southwest just before sunset Wednesday, |
That puts Vermont in a relatively dry zone between the very heavy snow up in Quebec and another, lesser patch of heavier precipitation expected in southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine.
Still, the strong south to southeast winds should favor the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, where I'd expect a solid two to five inches out of this before things start mixing with ice and schmutz and stuff.
Places west of the Green Mountains in southwestern Vermont, and in most of the Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom in the shadow of the White Mountains might only see a dusting to two inches by morning
Still, between the snow, the wind, the sleet and the freezing rain, driving to work tomorrow morning might turn out to be a challenge just about everywhere in the state.
TIMING
The snow should come in a little before midnight and peak between midnight and dawn. During that time, the mix with sleet and freezing rain should work northeastward across Vermont in the pre-dawn hours, mostly.
The Northeast Kingdom might not see any mix until after dawn, and then very little, but that depends on how much warm air flows north.
By mid to late morning, and through the afternoon, any leftover precipitation, be it wet snow, sleet or just plain rain, should be showery and spotty and light. Most valleys should see a brief afternoon thaw, but we won't lose much of our snow cover.
Everybody except extreme southwest Vermont should stay below 40 degrees and the thaw will only last a few hours It'll get colder and windier again Thursday night, and we'll be back to the depths of winter Friday.
THE NEXT STORM
Unfortunately, the next, bigger storm scheduled for the weekend is trending warmer, too.
A lead piece of the storm should have snow breaking out here Saturday afternoon as temperature climb to only near 20. But the main storm as of late this afternoon is slated to cross central Vermont Sunday.
That would invite mixed precipitation northward after a heavy burst of snow. If the trend keeps the storm heading more and more north, the more and more mixed precipitation we get. If the trend reverses and the storm heads a little more south, then most of us just get a bunch of snow.
From what I can tell as of this evening the trend is not our friend. Each model run, in general, inches the weekend storm further and further north. Time will tell.
ELSEWHERE
The tail end of this storm has prompted a severe storm and tornado outbreak in parts of Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi today and this evening. A strong tornado can't be ruled out, and a few tornado warnings have already been issued.
It's not just Vermont getting winter weather from this storm, either. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories created by our storm extend from Nebraska to Maine.
Around six inches of snow was expected around Chicago with this thing. Ice storm warnings for up to a third of an inch of damaging ice were up in parts of Ohio and West Virginia. Northern Maine was in for eight to 12 inches of snow.
Quebec is still girding for their biggest snowstorm of the winter. Ottawa is expecting 11 to 16 inches of new snow with snowfall rates early Thursday at two inches per hours.
All of this does not include the third, bigger storms that's expected to cause dangerous, varied weather from California to southeastern Canada over the next few days. Everything from floods, mudslides, tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, snow, ice, cgi
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