The Beginning Of The End Of A Vermont Winter

A crocus emerges from the snow last spring in
St. Albans, Vermont.  Believe it or not, the
harshest part of winter is about to end, but
that doesn't mean we'll escape the occasional
frigid day or snowstorm. 

A Don't let the headline on this post completely fool you. 

We still have a pretty good amount of winter left to go here in Vermont. It's only late February, after all.

Recent winters have been springlike, so when spring really got here in those years, it almost felt anticlimactic. 

This year, we're certainly having a  much  more "traditional" winter this go around.  So for now, we have to harken back to the way seasons used to work before climate change. Many of us have an old fashioned, traditional case of spring fever. 

Right on cue, we are now at what I would consider the beginning of the end of winter. 

It's been pretty hard core in recent weeks up until now. If no more snow falls in Burlington this month, the 31.8 inches of snow the city has gotten this month will make this the sixth snowiest February on record.  The month is also running four degrees or so colder than normal.

(That's the new, warmer normal of course. Had we been having this same exact month back in the 1970s, it would be pretty close to what was then normal).

Even so this is the time of year when we see the harshness of winter begin to break, just a little. You'll see that this coming week with that anticipated thaw. 

Temperature forecasts have actually trended a little warmer for the upcoming week. In lower elevations, you'll probably see noticeably less snow on the ground that you do today.  Most of that will be because the warmth is settling the snow. But some of it will melt. Especially since bits of light rain could fall Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons in most valleys. 

It all means most of us - except those in higher elevations - have probably see the deepest snow of the winter already.  

The snow won't come close to entirely disappearing, of course. There will still be plenty left by the end of the week. Especially since some additional snow is possible toward Thursday night and Friday when it's expected to start turning colder again. 

A little additional snow is expected up in the mountains off and on all week, so they might end up with a slight net gain in snow cover. That takes us to the next month. 

MARCH

You can obviously see extreme winter conditions in March that are just as bad as the worst that even January can bring.  It's been as cold as 24 below in Burlington in March. Seven of Burlington's top 20 biggest snowstorms have hit in March. 

But in general, even if it's cold - like this March seems like it wants to shape up to be - you see signs the grip of winter is beginning to weaken. 

While we hope to see some thawing in March, we often
also see some big snowy setbacks. Pictured here is the
Pi Day Blizzard in St. Albans, Vermont, March 14, 2017

The sun angle in March  is much higher than it was in December.  So even on blue sky days that are well below freezing, the strength of the afternoon sun melts the south and west sides of snowbanks a little. 

The trunks of trees collect the sun's warmth, and you see the snow melting away from those tree trunks a bit. You start to see rings of bare ground around those trees. 

If light snow falls during the day, chances are the roads won't be as tricky as they would have been earlier in the winter. The sun's heat making its way through the clouds might warm up the pavement a bit, making things less treacherous.

Lake Champlain

Our big Lake Champlain has come closer to freezing over this year than it has since 2019, which is the last time it completely froze. 

There is some open water left on the lake, and the upcoming week's warm spell could remove some of the thin ice on the broad lake.

Lake Champlain could still freeze over completely, but the chances of that happening this year are beginning to diminish. 

It's the sun angle again.  Even it it's cold, the sun can heat up surface of any darker open water, melting the ice next to it a little.  

Still, if we have some calm, subzero nights in early March - which has happened in many years - Lake Champlain could still completely freeze over.  In 2019, the lake froze over briefly on March 8 because the little bit of open water on March 7 that year froze over as temperatures bottomed out to around 0 on the morning of March 8. 

Snow

I mentioned the likely slow melt of the snow in March, but we almost always have snowy setbacks to the slow melt down of our winter snow cover.  

The warming spring air can actually, ironically make snowfall heavier, which is probably part of the reason why so many of those greatest snow have happened in March. 

Large storm systems depend on a contrast of warm, humid air to the south and cold air to the north. 

Once we get into March, the air feeding into storms from the south is warmer and more humid than it would have been in midwinter. Since that warmer, wetter air can hold more moisture, precipitation can be heavier in a March storm than one back in January. 

If that added moisture rides up into the cold air to the north - and if Vermont is in that cold air - we can really get dumped on.  As recently as 2017 the famous Pi-Day blizzard deposited nearly three feet of snow in northern Vermont. 

Since it is warmer in March, as we go through the month, some of the snowstorms will feature wetter, heavier snow, since the temperatures are more likely be near near 32 degrees in a March storm. 

Also, if you're sick of snow, March snow tends to start melting almost immediately after the storm ends. That's especially true as we get deeper into the month. 

The approach of spring comes with a lot of false starts, as we in Vermont know well.  But the trend line is our friend if you're getting tired of winter. 

The normal high temperature today is 33 degree, at least as measured in Burlington. By March 1, it's 36. Exactly a month from now, on March 22, the normal high is up to 43 degrees.

We're at the point now where people who love winter still have plenty of time to enjoy. Those who are less enthusiastic can now start to seek out signs of the end of all these frigid temperatures and huge snowbanks. 

Before you know it, happy yellow daffodils will be dancing in the warm breezes of a Vermont spring.