 |
| Latest snow and sleet forecast map issued Saturday morning shows little change. Most snow probably northwest. A little less accumulation along western slopes of Green Mountain where strong downslope winds could limit the intensity of the snow or sleet. |
The forecast for a thump of snow, then a lot of mixed precipitation, then a little more snow has in general not changed since last night. However, forecasters are getting more and more concerned about wind.
In addition to the existing winter storm warning, a high wind warning is in effect for Rutland County Sunday.
Further north a wind advisory is in effect for the western slopes of the Green Mountains pretty much all the way to the Canadian border. Strong winds are also looking like they will be a factor at the tail end of the storm later Sunday night and Monday.
As we usually do, let's get into the daily details. Bear with me, there's a lot to get into with this one,
TODAY: As expected, it's starting off cold, with lows in the single numbers with a few below zero readings. It won't get much warmer as skies gradually cloud over. You'll see on weather radar this afternoon what looks like widespread snow moving in. But the Arctic air over us is dry, so most of that will evaporate before hitting the ground.
We shouldn't really see anything more than a few snowflakes until after dark.
TONIGHT: We'll mostly just see light to moderate snow overnight, the kind we're used to, and don't consider a big deal. Sure, the roads will get slippery, but it won't be anything that unusual. The main show is on Sunday.
 |
| Freezing rain forecast map issued Saturday morning by the National Weather Service. Far southern Vermont could have some real ice trouble, especially as winds get stronger Sunday night. |
Then, gradually through the morning and very early afternoon far north, the snow will mix with and change to mostly sleet. The sleet will spread south to north across the state.
Wind Worries
The storm's orientation now appears poised to cause one of those damaging downslope wind events along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. I still don't think this will be as bad as the twin wind storms of January 2024, but this will be bad enough.
Rutland County will probably, arguably see the worst effects of this storm as a snow to sleet and freezing rain scenario in Rutland County should combine with gusts to or even over 50 or 60 mph during the day. It looks like there, the potentially damaging gusts might not be limited to the immediate western slopes like in Mendon or Shrewsbury.
The damaging gusts could extend into more populated areas like Rutland City and Town, and even as far west as Castleton, Poultney, West Rutland and Wells.
If enough freezing rain mixes in, it will be all the worse because the wind will be hitting trees and power lines burdened with some ice. Even if everything stays sleet and ice doesn't cling to trees, the winds will be strong enough to knock some of them down, or at least remove some branches.
Further north, a wind advisory is up, as noted along the rest of the Green Mountain western slopes. Places like Ripton, Bristol, Huntington, Underhill, Cambridge, eastern Enosburg, Bakersfield and Richford could see wind gusts to 55 mph. Locally higher in some of the most wind prone areas.
The one saving grace is precipitation - whatever it may be - will be somewhat lighter in areas with the strongest winds. The downslope winds tend to locally discourage heavy snow or sleet or rain or whatever.
 |
| Forecast wind gust map for Sunday. Orange stripe along western Green Mountain slopes indicate gusts at or over 50 mph. This map doesn't include expected strong wind later Sunday night and Monday. |
Also, places well away from the western slopes, like most of eastern Vermont and the Champlain Valley mostly along and west of Route 7 shouldn't have all that much wind during the day Sunday. It could gust to 25 to 30 mph there, annoying when you're being hit in the face by sleet, but not terribly dangerous.
Mixed Precipitation
There's still disagreement among meteorologists as to exactly when the changeover will happen, how far north the worst of the sleet and freezing rain gets, and what proportion of this storm will be snow, and which proportion will be sleet.
I think everyone should expect at least some sleet, but expect surprises. Some places will get less snow and more sleet than currently in the forecast, and in some places it might be the opposite. The further south you go, though, the more mixed precipitation you'll get.
A wild card is freezing rain. While it looks like the majority of this mess will be sleet, freezing rain should mix in, especially the further south you go. Freezing rain is much worse, because it will cling to trees and weigh them down. That has implications for Sunday night and Monday. More on that in a bit.
Unless the forecast changes a lot, I think northern Vermont will see very little if any freezing rain. It'll be a sleet thing up there.
The further south you go, the more freezing rain you encounter. I am especially worried about a few areas in far southern Vermont, where a quarter inch or more of ice could accumulate on everything. Once you go above a quarter inch of ice, you start losing tree branches and power lines.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
As what by then will be a twin storm system - one a little to our north, the other strengthening along the New England Coast, colder air will sweep in Sunday evening in all levels of the atmosphere over Vermont.
That'll change everything back to snow. There could be a really heavy burst of snow for a little while in the evening north. Then it should start to taper off overnight, first in southern Vermont valleys and gradually working its way so that by Monday morning, it will be mostly the mountains still getting snow.
Strong west to northwest winds will develop. A high wind watch is up for far southern Vermont Sunday night through Monday evening for possible gusts as strong as 60 mph.
If there's ice on the trees from Sunday's freezing rain down there, that's a recipe for more power outages.
Elsewhere in Vermont, expect wind gusts of 40 mph later Sunday night and Monday. The eastern slopes of the Green Mountains could see 50 mph gusts. We might need a wind advisory for later Sunday night and Monday.
The strong winds will blow around the fluffier snow that falls atop the likely icy crusty Sunday night. Travel will be no picnic on Monday, either, especially as temperatures will stay quite low.
BOTTOM LINE/WHAT TO DO
Forecasters in general are still calling for a pretty substantial total accumulation of six to nine inches of snow and sleet for most of us. Sleet is heavy, so if you get a lot of it, just be forewarned that cleanup won't be a breeze.
Because of the extra snow at the tail end of the storm the northern and central Green Mountains could do very well with this storm, despite a layer of sleet that might be in there. I would not at all be surprised if some northern Vermont ski areas end up with well over a foot of new snow by Monday night.
Also, if for some reason the sleet doesn't make it all the way to the Canadian border, some far northern Vermont towns could see over a foot of snow. All depends on the sleet.
Stay off the roads Sunday. Especially if you're in the high wind warning and advisory areas, where debris on the roads or falling branches would add to the danger. Charge your devices and get your LED candles out if you're in the high wind/freezing rain zones. You might well lose power on Sunday, and it could take awhile to get the electric back. Especially with strong winds continuing Monday.
Pro tip: If you are not going to move your car until at least Monday, let the early snow pile up on it. Then any freezing rain will fall atop the snow, making it easier to clean off the car. If the windshields are covered with snow, the freezing rain won't cling directly to the windows, so you won't have to break your arms chopping and scraping the ice.
Expect a rough commute Monday morning for much of Vermont, too. It's hard to scrape all that ice off the roads, especially as temperatures will be low enough for salt to become ineffective. Snow will continue in some areas Monday morning, too, especially in the central and northern Green Mountains.
Blowing snow will be an issue.
Despite getting into the second half of February, winter looks like it will hang tough for quite awhile yet. It'll be very cold the first half of the week, with highs in the teens, low near zero. The cold will relax somewhat by the end of the week though.
It still look like a new nor'easter will go to far to our south and east to bother us next Thursday, but that's not a unanimous opinion among the computer models. We'll still need to keep an eye on it just in case.
No comments:
Post a Comment