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| The National Weather Service's first crack at predicting snow and sleet accumulation from the upcoming storm This depicts six to nine inches. But be ready for possible sharp revisions either way on these totals. |
The National Weather Service office in South Burlington (and Albany for our southernmost two counties) has issued a winter storm watch for all of Vermont. It'll start Saturday night and last through Sunday evening.
Though precipitation for most of us might end up lasting at least into early Monday morning.
As an aside, Burlington is now pretty much in a lock for having a snowier winter month than normal, which has become a rarity.
If Burlington gets 1.3 inches of snow or sleet with this one, which will happen, February's snowfall there will be above average.
The trend overnight with our upcoming storm has not been our friend, as - so far at least - most of us should see a fair amount of sleet with this. Southern Vermont in particular will need to watch out for freezing rain as well.
On to the particulars, as updated this morning.
TODAY/SATURDAY
The cold winds will continue today, but at least there's nothing to worry about on the roads, other than patches of lingering ice from yesterday. The blustery gusts should start to taper off as we go through the afternoon.
Most of Saturday looks dry, too, as clouds increase. Dry air feeding in from Arctic high pressure to the north should keep light snow at bay until mid to late afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Steady light snow should spread across the state overnight. It will remain snow all night and into Sunday morning. We'll get a few inches out of this.
SUNDAY
Here's where the trouble really starts.
As we mentioned in yesterday's post, one main storm will travel from the Ohio Valley then into northwestern New York. Another will try to form along the coast.
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| A preliminary look at possible ice accumulations with the upcoming storm. Keep a sharp eye on southern Vermont for revisions. If expected ice accumulation goes above 0.30 inches or snow, you begin to have some definite trouble with fallen tree branches and power lines. |
However, it's looking like the eventual storm in New York will be the dominate one longer, which would allow warm air to come in aloft, for our mixed precipitation.
This is the scenario we had on Thursday, except this one is more intense. And there's the potential for more warm air aloft for a longer period than we had on Thursday.
Unless the forecast shifts, this almost guarantees a shift to a snow/sleet mixture, then all sleet during the day Sunday.
The mix should start in the morning in southwest Vermont and spread through the rest of the state by afternoon.
Worse, the warm air aloft in southern Vermont will be thicker and a little closer to the ground. In the north, what will start as rain in the toasty air high above will hit the cold air, freeze on the way down and hit us as annoying ice pellets.
As horrible as sleet is, at least it bounces off things and doesn't do a great job of sticking to trees and power lines, so you don't run into broken tree branches and power lines.
The risk in southern Vermont is the rain for a time won't freeze on the way down and only turn to ice once it lands on your road, driveway, trees and power lines. So far, the amount of freezing rain in the forecast doesn't sound like enough to cause a lot of tree or power line damage.
But if things shift a little more and the freezing rain ends up lasting longer than expected, all bets are off, so we'll need to watch this.
Eventually, Sunday evening or night, the cold air should start crashing back in at all levels of the atmosphere, changing it all back to snow for awhile. Then it tapers off Monday.
Right now, the National Weather Service has all of Vermont seeing a solid (maybe too solid!) six to nine inches of snow and sleet out of this.
CAVEATS AND WHAT TO DO
The above is what the National Weather Service and other meteorologist envision how this storm will play out. Given how complex and marginal the temperatures will be in different layers of the atmosphere, this is a tough forecast.
It has a lot of bust potential, as we still could see more mix than expected, or maybe even less mix and more snow. Forecasters were making revisions right up through almost the entire storm Thursday, and I expect nothing different on Sunday.
Bottom line: Get your supplies if you need them today and or tomorrow morning or early afternoon. Stay put at home Sunday.
We know the weather is going to be ugly on Sunday. We're just not 100 percent sure on what brand of ugly.
Southern Vermont in particular has to stay on its toes as if they get more freezing rain than expected, power outages come into play. A still-unlikely but not impossible worst case scenario for southern Vermont is a lot of freezing rain with widespread tree damage and long lasting power outages.
As I noted yesterday, this is a wide ranging storm that will cause huge problems. Most places east of the Mississippi River are going to have some trouble with this, be it floods, ice, snow, severe weather, tornadoes, high winds or intense cold.
BEYOND SUNDAY
Don't anticipate any kind of early spring here in Vermont. It'll be quite windy and cold Monday with flurries, with snow showers piling up a few more inches of fluff in the Green Mountains.
Another nor'easter looks likely on Thursday. The early read on this one is it will either pass a wee bit too far south of Vermont for us to get much, or perhaps throw a few inches of snow at southern Vermont.
But we've seen a trend this month of later forecasts drawing storms further north than earlier anticipated. If that happens with Thursday's storm - and it might - we might be looking at yet another winter storm.
Whether or not that happens, I'm seeing no signs of any kind of real thaw at least until the opening days of March.
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