Forecasters Back Off SLIGHTLY From Torrid Vermont Upcoming Week Forecast, But It Will Still Be Hot

Early Sunday afternoon satellite pic shows Vermont
in the middle of a big cloudy patch that will
keep the rest of today cloudy and damp. But
looks at those clear skies to the northwest\
in Ontario and central Quebec. That's our
weather tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Just landed after my return trip from Minnesota, so you saw no morning post today. So I'll try a very late, afternoon attempt. 

As expected, a few scattered strong to severe storms erupted in Vermont yesterday. The worst of them seem to cross central Vermont in a west to east band very roughly about  20 or 30 miles north of Route 4. 

I'm kinda sure there was some tree damage across the middle of Vermont, but the only report of damage I see so far is the several trees fell along Route 73 between Whiting and Sudbury. 

As you'd expect, rainfall was super variable with the scattering of storms yesterday. Many places, as expected got somewhere in the neighborhood of a half inch of rain.

 But there were those torrential downpours, as you'd expect. The biggest totals I saw were  near the Canadian border: 1.85 inches in Montgomery Center, 1.58 inches at Derby Line and 1.54 inches 

Meanwhile, a few towns got seriously cheated. West Windsor reported just 0.05 inches of rain. 

During this morning and early afternoon, a final band of rain was working north to south across Vermont, As you can tell, it's pretty cool today under the clouds and showers and north winds, with most places holding in the 60s as of early afternoon. 

Except for nights and very early mornings at the beginning of the week, this will be last cool weather you'll see for awhile. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Judging from the satellite photos, we won't get much clearing today. Maybe some places will get some sun in the evening. Since it's cool this afternoon, we're set up for a comfortable night.  Lows Monday morning will be in the 40s, with some low 50s in banana belt towns in the Champlain Valley. 

Monday: A beauty. Sunshine, low humidity and highs in the 70s to around 80.

Tuesday: Another nice one. Warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Maybe a couple upper 80s in the warmest valleys. The humidity will stay low.

Wednesday: Here's where trouble starts. Humidity levels will creep up. Forecasters have backed off on the idea of three or four consecutive days near 90 degrees in the warmer valleys. Instead, we'll probably wait for a couple of days for a shot at 90. 

A weather disturbance that was expected to be a nothing burger a few days ago will now have a little oomph when it arrives here. Nothing dramatic, just some showers and maybe some embedded thunder. Highs should still make it into the 80s as it turns noticeably more humid.

Thursday/Friday: These will be the hot days, at least if the forecast holds. It is subject to change. As it is, we might seem some showers and storms both days as highs potentially reach a humid 90 degrees.

Next Weekend.  Frankly, not sure yet. Depends upon whether some cold fronts arrive to rescue us from the humidity or not. Cold fronts would also mean a potential shower risk. But don't make plans based on the weather for next weekend. We really have almost no idea what will happen then

Last Of Vermont Drought That Began Last August Ends. But Could It Quickly Return?

For the first time since the August 21, 2025. U.S. 
Drought Monitor, there is no drought in 
Vermont as of this week. The yellow area
depicts "abnormally dry," which is sort of
on the cusp of drought. The drought
could return as relatively dry weather
is in the forecast after it rains Sunday. 

 For the first time since the middle of last August, there is no drought in Vermont. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor in their report issued Thursday. downgraded drought in southeast Vermont to an area labeled "abnormally dry." That means conditions are still on the cusp of a drought, but it's still not quite there. 

It looks like the soaking rain we had on May 14-15 made a difference and moistened things up a bit. That left Vermont with no areas of drought in the state since the August 21, 2025 edition of the U.S. Drought Monitor was released. 

The question is whether the drought will come back. After this weekend, what appears to be a fairly long, relatively dry spell will arrive. Depending  upon how long mostly dry weather lasts, at least parts of Vermont could end up in drought trouble again. 

Sure, it's going to rain this weekend, and the most rain will fall in southeast Vermont, where it's most needed. 

But the expected rainfall isn't a tremendous amount. 

Total rainfall late tonight through Monday looks like it might range between a quarter inch north and  three quarters of an inch far south. Central Vermont would get a third to a half inch of the forecast holds.

SPECIFIC FORECAST

I'll get into the specifics of this weekend, and the outlook into next week further explains why drought might come back.

Today

High overcast has spread across all of Vermont's skies.  It'll remain that way all day, but tend to thicken up later in the day. Weak sunshine getting through in the north should allow temperatures to reach 70 degrees or so. Temperatures should hold in the 60s south.

Sunday

NOAA's 8 to 14 day outlook has our area on the dry
side at least through June 5

The day will begin with light rain falling roughly south and west of Interstate 89. The light rain will spread into the Northeast Kingdom by at least noon. 

Since the rain will be steadier and somewhat heavier south, and the clouds will be thicker there, many areas of southern Vermont could stay in the 40s pretty much all day. That's ridiculously cold for this time of year, but there you go.

In the north, since rain will be lighter, and in some areas won't start until later in the morning, highs should only get into the low 50s, which is still damn chilly for this time of year.

 Even worse, breezes will make it feel colder. Those breezes will probably be especially gusty along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

If you had warm weather outdoor plans for Sunday, you are s*it out of luck. I guess we have to pay for the 90 degree weather we had earlier this week. No good weather goes unpunished.

Memorial Day

Well, it can't get worse than Sunday, so there's that. We will actually see a fair amount of improvement, especially as we get later into the afternoon. It looks like some showers will come through in the morning, but they'll tend to taper off in the afternoon to allow some afternoon sunshine, fingers crossed.

If the sunshine develops, highs should get into the low 70s. If it stays cloudy, we'll settle for 60s. Again, that's a LOT better than Sunday's misery.

NEXT WEEK

A brief warm up, then a cooling trend starting Wednesday and continuing at least into next weekend. 

A steep dip in the jet stream will develop just to our east, and a pool of cold air might settle overhead by next weekend, Though a forecast that far out is iffy, so you can still take it with a big grain of salt. 

If the forecasts do pan out at least sort of correctly, Tuesday will bring us nice highs in the low 80s.  Then it cools into the still very pleasant  70s Wednesday, near 70 Thursday, in the 60s Friday and even cooler than that next weekend. In fact, some models make us quite cold, so we'll see how that works out.

This type of weather pattern features a chance of showers, and we'll have that chance daily starting Wednesday and going into the weekend. But these should be very light scattered showers. And they're more likely to hit northern Vermont and not so much in the south. 

Also, I know long range patterns are shaky, but NOAA has the dry weather in all of New England lasting well into the first week of June. Even longer range forecasts into the middle of June do moisten us up a little to near normal precipitation.  

Brief Vermont Sunday Evening Update: Drizzle To Become Patchy Freezing Drizzle As Tonight's Temperatures Drop

The slush I photographed outside my house late this 
afternoon will be slippery ice by the time I get up
in the morning. Bits of freezing drizzle overnight
won't help, either. 

That slush in northern Vermont is going to freeze soon, while those areas, and some other parts of the state face the prospect of freezing drizzle tonight. 

Most of the snow fell in far northern Vermont, as we alluded to this morning.  It turned out to be much less widespread than predicted. Almost everybody south of Route 2 had less than an inch. 

The highest accumulations we saw were also less than the highest accumulations we thought we'd see. Those higher amounts include 5.5 inches in West Burke; 5.4 inches in Maidstone and 4.5 inches in North Hyde Park.

The rest of the day turned into the very definition of miserably dreary. The far southwest corner of Vermont did break out into slightly warmer air, as Bennington made it to 48 degrees. The rest of us endured low clouds, fog, drizzle and a cold light rain.

That's about to get worse, As of late this afternoon, temperatures in northern and central Vermont will slowly sinking, and the moisture in the air was not going away. 

That sets us up for freezing drizzle tonight. It will be more widespread than the patches of it we had Friday night. 

A special weather statement from the National Weather Service tells us patchy freezing drizzle will continue off and on all night and into tomorrow morning. And, all that slush and water is going to freeze up overnight, too. The freezing drizzle itself will only create a thin scrim of ice, but that's enough to slow you down on the way to work tomorrow.

There were already a number of traffic accidents earlier today as a bit of snow, then freezing drizzle then drizzle that didn't quite melt the ice kept things hectic for Vermont State Police. 

By afternoon, the character of the day will change as the atmosphere starts getting windier and more unstable. That will send some snow showers flying through the air here and there, but it won't about to much.

Quick Saturday Vermont Evening Update: More Snow Still Coming, Won't Disappear Fast

Yet another National Weather Service snow forecast map,
this one for tomorrow Click on the image to make it
bigger and easier to see. 

The sun finally started to shine and more between the clouds this afternoon as those clouds slowly thinned.  

Some of the snow across the north was melting, but not all of it. And we still have more coming tomorrow. More on that in a sec. 

You can see this time of year how snow helps refrigerate the air.  

Where snow covered the ground in the north, mid-afternoon temperatures were mostly in the mid-30s. In southern Vermont, where this is no snow, it was in the low and mid 40s.

With more snow coming nearly statewide, and a generally chilly weather pattern, perhaps until April Fool's Day, I guess we have to say winter is back for now. 

That chilly air over the next 10 days will be made slightly colder than it otherwise would be if the ground was free of snow,   

It's an example of how cold weather patterns this type of year sometimes reinforce themselves.

STORM UPDATE

Now that I've thoroughly depressed you, let's talk about tomorrow's snow. So far, not much has changed with the forecast. The bulk of the snow should come through between a little before dawn to early afternoon. 

Within that time frame, we could have a thump of fairly heavy snow for two or three hours.  That'll be enough to make the roads icy and snow covered again, The worst driving condition will be through the morning and maybe into the early afternoon. This will be another wet snow, but in northern Vermont it maybe not quite as cement-like as Friday's. We'll see about that. 

Total accumulations look like they'll be 2 inches or so in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. But once again, those two places are the wild cards that are most likely to get much more, or much less snow than forecast. 

Places with an elevation of 1,000 feet or more can expect three or four inches, maybe a little more in some spots. At this point, the Northeast Kingdom is in the running for a little more, maybe six inches of snow or so.

The northern Green Mountains should get the most, with maybe seven or eight inches of snow. 

One little twist in the forecast is when the snow tapers off in the afternoon, it could mix with drizzle or freezing drizzle in many spots. The freezing drizzle would obviously keep things on the icy side. And places with just plain drizzle tomorrow could end up with it freezing at night. 

We'll be in the midst of the snow will I post about it tomorrow morning. I'll have updates of course, and also, what to expect for the rest of the week. 'Spoiler: Not really springlike! 

Kind Of A Stormy Vermont Sunday, New Wet Weekend Record Set. Then: More Rain, Cool, Then More Heat?

Dark green and yellow areas of this map are under
some risk of severe storms today, with yellow areas
at a slightly higher chance of severe weather. 

As of 7 a.m, this morning, it has officially rained today at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont.  

Not much rain, but enough to make this the 31st consecutive weekend with precipitation. That's a new record for consecutive wet and/or snowy weekends.

The bit of rain Burlington had early this morning is not the end of it.  More showers and storms are due today. In fact, there's still a chance of a severe thunderstorm or two today, primarily in southern Vermont. 

It's kind of a messy weather system with a sharp end to it. 

Usually, if you want severe storms, sunshine during the heat of the day helps destabilize the atmosphere, providing more lift for the strong updrafts that produce torrential downpours and strong thunderstorm wind gusts.

It'll be pretty cloudy today, so that ingredient is missing. However, the incoming cold front is more like one you'd see in the autumn than one in mid-summer. 

This autumnal style means there's a sharp temperature gradient involved. You usually don't see that in July. Winds aloft will be strong for this time of year.  South winds ahead of the cold front will collide with incoming north winds behind today's cold front. 

All that should fire up some pretty decent storms, or at least some downpours. Plus, there is some sun in southern Vermont, which will help prime the atmosphere, too. 

Scattered showers will continue this morning, then it appears a main band of showers and storms should enter northwestern Vermont around noon, give or take. 

The band of showers and storms should head northwest to southeast across Vermont during the early to mid afternoon, strengthening as it goes. 

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, we could have isolated instances of strong winds along and south of Route 2, and slightly more cases of potentially damaging winds along and south of Route 4.  The rest of central and southern New England is in that same boat.

Most places will be fine. But a few of us Vermonters will be dealing with toppled trees and power lines. Almost all the trouble should be near or south of Rutland and White River Junction.

Much like on Tuesday, there's an extremely low but not zero chance of a brief, weak spin up tornado in southern Vermont and the rest of central New England.  That's not a big concern, since the chances are so low. But I'm throwing it out there to show that this cold front does mean business.

I also suppose a couple of the most intense and long lasting downpours could create a local issue with flash flooding in one or two spots today in Vermont. But if that happens, it will be really isolated, relatively minor and definitely not a statewide problem. 

Generally speaking Vermont should get a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain out of this with isolated higher amounts. 

COLD THEN HOT

As mentioned, this is an unusual cold front for July. It's more like something that would come through in September. (One of the reasons some storms might be so strong is because this front is out of season. An autumn cold front would not be interacting with such humid air from the south to boost the instability).

Anyway, by late afternoon, northern and probably central Vermont will be in the clear, with sunshine breaking out. There might be an isolated sprinkle left over, but nothing to worry about. Cool north winds will might make you want to grab a sweater if you're doing an evening outdoor barbecue or something like that. 

Monday will be a typical September day with sun and clouds alternating and afternoon highs just making it into the mid 60s and low 70s. Monday night temperatures will drop into the 40s with some low 50s in warmer valleys. This won't anything close to record cold, but still, we're not used to it.

But summer is not over,  that's for sure. 

As I described Friday, the "heat dome" which controls big summer heat waves in the United States, is migrating a little more toward the central U.S. But we're still prone to squirts of hot weather coming in from the west. It now looks like we'll have a sharp boost of heat and humidity late week. 

Wednesday should get into the 80s but the humidity will be reasonable. On Thursday, we have another possible shot at 90 degree temperatures, with oppressive humidity 

Another cold front should arrive by Friday, but that one will be a typically weak, July style version, so it will stay quite warm even after the front goes by.  The changing weather pattern looks like it will still favor additional mostly weak cold fronts in late July and early August.

That means we'll continue with mostly warm summer weather, but on most days the really intense heat would stay to out south and west, with just an occasional oppressive or broiling day thrown in.  

Brief Vermont Saturday Evening Storm Update: Chances Increase Of Wild Early Morning Storms

From weather.us this is just one of many possible ways
weather radar will look like in Vermont at 3 a.m. Monday.
Some forecasts have ferocious storms coming through
Vermont early Sunday while others depict nothing
too serious. We won't know which it is until storms
are right on our doorstep.

 Still no guarantees as of early this evening of what kind of storminess Vermont and surrounding areas will see in the hours before dawn Sunday.  

But chances appear to have increased that some loud - and maybe dangerous - storms might come through. Especially in the northern half of the state.

If all this happens, the likeliest time for this to hit is between 2 and 7 a.m. Sunday. 

Hopefully this will turn out to be a somewhat decaying batch of storms, and we either just get some rain, or maybe some loud storms and downpours but nothing worse than lost sleep. 

But this type of situation can be volatile.  A complex of storms riding along the northern edge of a heat wave in the early morning hours has the potential to produce some violent storms.  

That sort of thing happened along the northern edge of a record-breaking heat wave in July, 1995 when a violent derecho crossed out of Canada, through the Adirondacks into southern Vermont and other parts of eastern New York and New England,  

We really won't know until whether we'll have damaging thunderstorms until they are on our doorstep around or just after midnight. Indications early this evening are leaning a little more toward the idea of strong post-midnight Vermont storms.

Thankfully, some - but not all -  of those early indications hint that maybe the storms might be weakening some on approach to Vermont. Again, not guaranteed, but something to watch. 

Some forecast models depict some pretty ferocious thunderstorms coming through in the wee hours. Other models really show nothing special overnight and into Sunday morning. Take your pick I guess. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has ticked up the threat level from marginal (storm level risk one out of five to slight (threat level two out of five) in the northwestern two thirds of Vermont. 

This type of weather situation is probably the most difficult for meteorologists to accurately forecast, even just a few hours ahead of the event. 

If there are any bad storms the biggest problem would be destructive straight line winds. Large hail could also come down with a couple of these. 

Again, there's no guarantee we'll have severe storms, but just in case, secure loose outdoor objects this evening or bring them indoors.  If you're camping out in the woods or know somebody who is, let them know to have a way to get warnings so they can scoot to a sturdy shelter. Falling trees while camping is no joke. Four campers died in the Adirondacks in the July, 1995 derecho.

I'd have a weather radio or some sort of phone in your bedroom overnight to warn you if a particularly intense thunderstorm is headed your way. You'll want to know because if it's a worst case scenario, you'd want to get into the basement or interior room away from windows.

The absolute worst case scenario would be like July, 1995 with a few towns gusting to  70 to 90 mph. That's highly unlikely early Sunday, but there's a non-zero chance of it. Better safe than sorry! 

 After that, of course the heat arrives, A heat advisory is up for most of Vermont for heat indexes of up to 102 degrees on Monday and Tuesday. The Champlain Valley is under a more dire and for Vermont rare extreme heat warning is in effect Monday and Tuesday for a heat index of around 105 degrees.  

I'll have more on this tomorrow after we get through the potential storms later tonight.

Vermont Snow Over-Performed Today. So Did The Evening Return To Spring

A wintry spring scene today in St. Albans, Vermont. 

 I was on to something Saturday evening and I should have stuck with it even more.

I said in an afternoon post that sometimes, the weather situation we were finding ourselves in could surprise with the extent of the snow we could face today.  

Sure enough, the snow in northern Vermont today was more widespread and briefly heavier than many had forecasted. 

It snowed for more than three hours here at my roughly 675 foot elevation here in St. Albans, Vermont. It occasionally snowed hard, accumulating to a total of 0.3 inches and at least temporarily smushing down my daffodils. 

All the flowers recovered when the snow quickly melted by mid-afternoon and the sun made an early evening appearance. 

Snowflakes made their way as far south as Burlington. Web cams in mid and high elevations of Vermont showed heavy snow with perhaps a good two or three inches of snow. It looked like some of the heavier snow bands produced rates of an inch per hours, which is pretty good. 

Looks like the Sunday snow killed this patch of 
daffodils in St. Albans, Vermont, but when the 
snow melted and the sun came out late in the day
these flowers recovered very nicely.

By late afternoon and early evening today, the contrast in weather across Vermont and eastern New York is stunning. 

As of 5 p.m. it was still snowing and raining with temperatures in the 30s in most of northern east of the Green Mountains and north of Route 2. 

In Highgate, one of the first weather stations to see the late date clearing, the temperature went from a chilly 38 degrees at noon to a reasonable 52 degrees at 5 p.m. 

Usually, the high temperatures for the day is in the late afternoon, but at least in western Vermont out highs will come just before sunset. I wouldn't be surprised if the northwests tip of the state reaches 60 degrees.

Sunday's snow was by no means the biggest snow on record for so late in the season. Not even close.  

The most memorable in recent memory was on April 27-28, 2010, when more  when 10 to 20 inches of wet snow hit many areas north of Route 2.  Spring leaf out was much more advanced that year than it is this year.

So leafed out trees collapsed under the weight of the heavy snow, causing widespread power outages and tree damage. Glad we didn't have to put up with that today!

Historically, huge snowstorms have occurred much later than today's trifling snow. On May 20, 1892, high elevations of south central Vermont had up to 30 inches of snow with nearly a foot in the valleys. 

As we said in previous forecast, as of this evening, the snow is ending and we're back to our regularly scheduled spring. 

Will It Snow In Vermont Today? For Many It Will Be Close

Soggy daffodils this morning in St. Albans, Vermont.
I wonder if a few snowflakes will land on them today.

 As expected, it's damp and drizzly and chilly and showery out there this Sunday morning in Vermont. 

Yesterday's cold front has passed through. It gave all of Vermont a soaking rain Saturday. Which was actually a good thing, since rainfall has been spotty this month. Some places were doing OK, others were a little on the dry side. Saturday's rain evened things up a little. 

As of around 7 a.m., a cold upper level low looks like it was centered roughly over far northwest Vermont. 

Moisture and rain was curling around the north side of this low, moving eastward across southern Quebec and then southward across northern New York. At higher elevations, some of that was snow.  Even low elevations were close to snow. 

At 7 a.m. Montreal, Quebec reported moderate intensity rain with a temperature of 36 degrees.  At higher elevations, precipitation hadn't quite started in Saranac Lake, New York, yet, but it was only 34 degrees there. 

As of 7:30 a.m, traffic cameras on high elevation roads, like Route 17 in Buels Gore and Route 242 in Westfield, were showing light rain, not snow. 

TODAY'S RAIN/SNOW

Clouds from the storm that is causing rain and snow
in Vermont today cover New England. Those
clear skies you see in far western New York
and adjacent Ontario could reach western
sections of Vermont toward sunset. 

As the upper low continues to trudge east today, that southward moving precipitation that was over New York will cross Vermont. For the most part, valleys will just see cold rain showers. With the onset of precipitation, temperatures will fall slightly, so you'll see more snow at mid and high elevations. 

With the upper low overhead, high elevations will chill further during this morning and early afternoon, so that's when the snow in some areas should start. 

If you're in Vermont and at an elevation of 1,000 feet or more, I'm guessing you'll see at least a few wet snowflakes today. The Green Mountain summits still look like they're in for one to as much as four inches of new snow. 

Lower elevations are iffy. It's so late in the season for snow, so it's hard to come by.

Plus, this is hitting during the day, not at night. Despite the thick clouds, very strong late April sunshine can still send some meager heat through the clouds, keeping temperatures just high enough to avoid snow in the valleys.

Still, if a patch of heavy precipitation passes over a particular spot, it might be enough to briefly drag snowflakes down to the ground, even in the northern Champlain Valley. 

Overall, the atmosphere over Vermont is just a smidge warmer than the forecasts I saw later Saturday. That could limit the extent of any snow today, which I'm sure most of you won't mind. 

There's also going to be quite a gradient in precipitation amounts to day in Vermont. Far southern Vermont should see only a few hundredths of an inch. By the time you get to Route 2, it'll be roughly quarter inch. Up by the Canadian border towns like Highgate, Montgomery, Newport and Island Pons will see a half inch or so of rain (or if you're high up, melted snow).

If you're driving through the mountains today, I don't think the roads will get too bad. Pavement temperatures are warm, and that weak heat from the sun should keep pavement wet, not white. 

ABRUPT SPRING RETURN

Late this afternoon, a sharp line of clearing - and warmer air - will start to work eastward from northern New York. This clearing should reach western Vermont toward sunset or maybe even a little before.

This should belatedly bring temperatures west of the Green Mountains upward from the low 40s in the early afternoon to low and mid 50s toward sunset. 

The clearing will probably  hit eastern Vermont too late to have much of an effect on temperatures. But at least in parts of Vermont, the sunset should be interesting with bright sun blasting in from the western horizon with dark clouds to the east. 

With the balmier air moving in, it won't get all that cold tonight. Monday is still looking like it will turn into a full force return to spring.  Under strong April sun, high temperatures should easily get into the 60s most places.

SEVERE WEATHER?

The heat should continue to build Tuesday as highs get well into the 70s.  A few banana belt towns could touch 80 degrees.

We're still watching what will be a big outbreak of severe storm and tornadoes Monday in the Midwest.

The slowly dying remnants of that severe storm blast will come at us Tuesday night.  There's still a chance a few storms could be strong when they reach Vermont later Tuesday.  The chances of that were low, with the best chance in northwest parts of the state. 

Still, it's the first time this season that we even have to question the risk of severe storms.  Another sign that summer is fast approaching, despite today's Sunday chill.

We'll keep an eye on all that for updates. 

Sunday Vermont Icy Storm Update: A Slow Shift To Thawing Today, But.........

Green Mountain Power shared this photo of icy trees
in Hubbardton, Vermont yesterday. The ice grew
thicker in many areas overnight with more freezing rain
and power outages are widespread in central Vermont

 Our area of freezing rain moved northward through Vermont overnight and this morning as expected, increasing power outages, making more trees sag and in some cases break, and just making things  miserable. 

Meanwhile, this storm is also causing other types of very dangerous, and very weird weather elsewhere in the nation. We also have a brand new storm to talk about for later in this week.

 I'll have more on that interesting stuff later this morning in a separate post. (I don't want to make this one too long and muddled).  

Busy, busy times in the weather department!

THIS MORNING

As expected, the ice out there this morning is pretty patchy.  As of dawn, we were starting a slow climb to above freezing temperatures, and some of us were there already. 

Places like Burlington and Rutland and Springfield were barely above freezing as of 7 a.m. But surely, within just miles of those weather stations, the rain was still freezing in sub-32 degree temperatures. 

If it's above freezing at your house when you read this, you're probably safe from more icing. But some unlucky places especially from the Green Mountains east could endure more freezing rain through the morning and possibly into the afternoon.

Also, as expected, power outages increased dramatically in the wee hours of the morning and continuing after dawn. As of 8:15 a.m. the trend line in power outages was still up, with more than 10,000 Vermont homes and businesses without power.  

Almost all the outages so far have been very roughly within 25 miles either side of Route 4 all the way fro Fair Haven to White River Junction. That makes sense, as this general area was expected to see the thickest ice accumulation. 

Scattered outages might well spread north east of the Green Mountains as rain continues to freeze to the trees and wires all the way to the Canadian border. I don't expect the outages to be super widespread as you head way north, as the ice accumulation won't get into the danger zone in most places. Just a few.

In the immediate Champlain Valley, the ice from overnight is pretty much over.  I noticed a thin glaze of ice on the trees here at my house in St. Albans, Vermont. But as of  7:30 a.m. the temperature here was at 34 degrees, so we're getting no more ice accumulation.  Melting snow was once again sliding off the roof.

Good riddance to the 5.9 inches of snow we received yesterday, frankly.    

REST OF TODAY

Traffic camera image from Route 100 in Ludlow shows
icy trees along the highway this morning. 

As we go along, the rain will tend to get more showery and scattered, but of course it still won't be a nice day. Lingering freezing rain will be very patchy. 

You'll be driving down a wet road with no noticeable ice on the trees, and suddenly, less than a mile down the road, the pavement is icy and the roadside trees are sagging under the weight of that ice.

Ice storm and winter storm warnings were in effect for most of Vermont early this morning. You'll probably see the National Weather Service in South Burlington remove these alerts piecemeal through the day as the ice danger slowly diminishes. 

High temperatures today will actually come tonight.  Readings will crawl upward through the 30s this afternoon, reaching the low 40s in the Champlain Valley and warmer western valleys by dark.

Temperatures will continue to slowly climb overnight tonight.

MONDAY

We're still looking at a big but brief surge of very mild air on Monday. Highs will reach well into the 50s with many of us getting pretty decently into the 60s.

The wintry, snowy, ice scenes of today in central and northern Vermont will quickly revert back to our early spring muddy, bare ground.

Continued showers, along with the rapidly melting snow and ice, should get the rivers and streams across Vermont rushing again.  I can certainly see how this could cause some minor flooding, but all indications are we will thankfully escape anything serious. 

At least some of our "usual suspect" Vermont rivers look like they'll reach flood stage on Monday. Current forecasts have the Mad River at Moretown cresting at half a foot above minor flood stage on Monday. The Otter Creek at Center Rutland should be getting pretty close to minor flood stage late Monday or early Tuesday. 

It also looks like the Winooski River at Essex Junction will be very close to minor flood stage by Tuesday.  

So be aware the next couple of days. Some roads right near Vermont's rivers might be closed or at least covered in water.   But we certainly don't have to worry about yet another big flood disaster in Vermont with this storm. We've had enough, thank you.  

A cold front will be approaching Monday afternoon, and there might well be some heavy showers along it, and perhaps a thunderstorm, too. 

AFTER MONDAY

Monday night, it's back to winter as the cold front will bring us back down into the 20s by first thing Tuesday morning.  There might be some icy patches on the roads Tuesday morning from the freeze. But at least the precipitation will be gone. 

It'll only get into the 30s Tuesday afternoon, so pretty chilly for this time of year. Wednesday will be a little warmer, in anticipation of a storm toward Wednesday night and Thursday that might have some similarities to the one we're having now. 

The big difference will be that if there is any snow or ice, it won't be nearly as much as we had this weekend.  That new storm will probably also give us another very brief warmup and a decent shot of additional rain. 

We'll have more details on that when we get closer to the event.  

 

Saturday Evening Vermont Winter Storm: Forecasts Worsens; More Wind, Some Areas Worrying Amounts Of Ice

Predictions for ice accumulation from freezing rain
in southern Vermont has increased since this 
morning. Those red zones are most prone to power
outages and tree damage.

 The forecast trends for our big storm tomorrow in Vermont have trended toward more impacts and trouble  than earlier predictions.   

Power outages look like they'll probably be more widespread than first thought, due updated forecasts that predict both more wind and in some areas more ice than previously thought. 

Bitter cold temperatures along with the wind Sunday night and Monday will make things more dangerous. For people who lose their electricity, and especially for those trying to restore it, and the crews trying to clean up the roads. 

Obviously not everyone is going to lose power, but some of us will.  I'd get your LED candles out, and charge your devices by early tomorrow morning. 

This is going to be a bad storm that you'll want to take seriously. 

So, let's break down what we - and, more precisely, the National Weather Service think will happen in the course of this storm. 

TONIGHT

Light snow was moving in right on schedule late this afternoon as darkness gathers in Vermont. For most of the night, it won't snow super hard, but enough to coat the roads and such. Wind won't be much of a factor, but it will continue to increase toward dawn. 

SUNDAY

Let's face it. This will be the ultimate stormy day in Vermont.  Stay home. 

We'll start the day with heavy snow statewide, though it will start mixing with sleet and freezing rain pretty early in the day across far southern Vermont. For most of us, we will have gone over to mostly sleet by late morning, and continue in that vein until early evening, when we switch back to snow.

It's going to be wild in many areas during the day.  They're continuing the high wind warning for Sunday in Rutland County where east to southeast winds will gust to 60 mph.   

Though strong, possibly damaging winds are forecast
along the western slopes of the Green Mountains 
Sunday, the entire region will have strong gusts
Monday, possibly exacerbating power outages
that will start on Sunday.

Further north, gusts should reach 55 mph in a lot of spots along the western slopes of the Greens from Addison County pretty much all the way to the Canadian border. 

All along the western slopes, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of isolated gusts to 70 mph. Away from the western slopes, winds in some spots could gust to 30 to 40 mph.  Very miserable if you're outside in that getting pelted by sleet. 

In terms of mixed precipitation, it's still looking like northern Vermont will have mostly sleet during the day. 

There might be some freezing rain mixed in. But at this point it looks like not much. We'll have to watch this, though. It's always possible that the freezing rain could work its way further north. 

The downslope winds might cut down on the amount of precipitation somewhat along the immediate western slopes, but it will still be nasty, no doubt about that. 

I've gotten much more worried about Vermont's four southernmost counties. Forecasts for the amount of ice accumulating from freezing rain have gone up. If you get above a quarter inch, you start to lose tree branches and possibly power lines.

Most previous forecasts indicates only a few isolate areas would get as much as a quarter inch of ice.

Now, some areas are now expected to get at least a third of an inch of ice. Not everywhere in southern Vermont, but some towns will get really iced up.  I've seen a few ominous forecasts that indicate up to a half inch of ice from freezing rain down in that section of the state. That would really cause a mess with damaged trees and power lines. 

Especially considering what's going to hit us Sunday night and Monday. 

SUNDAY NIGHT

The still intensifying double-barreled storm will begin to move to our east Sunday evening. That will open the doors for a flood of colder air coming in. And a ton of wind. 

Mixed precipitation should quickly change to snow Sunday evening. It might come down pretty hard in spots during the evening before getting lighter and more showery later. 

The main story, though will be the strong winds and falling temperatures. A high wind watch is in effect Sunday night through Monday along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains and in all of Bennington and Windham counties due to expected gusts of up to 60 mph.

Those not under the high wind watch will probably end up with a wind advisory for gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range starting Sunday night. 

All that wind is enough to cause new power outages.

Southern Vermont could be in real trouble. The freezing rain during the day will come with east winds, which will focus the weight of the ice on trees on their eastern sides.

The strong winds Sunday night and Monday will come from the west. With the eastern side of the trees weighted down by ice, it will be that much easier for trees to topple over.

New power outages, blowing snow and wind chills that will become dangerous overnight Sunday into Monday will make for trying times across Vermont. 

I can't imagine the trip to work will be fun Monday morning. Those of you in remote areas might not be able to get out anyway, due to fallen trees, wires and snow drifts. 

Overall, we're still expecting six to 10 inches of snow and sleet, with more than that in the northern mountains.  

We still have some question marks. Those of you north of Route 2 could get even deeper accumulations if we get less sleet than anticipated. There's still a lot of spread in expected snowfall amounts. For instances, about eight inches of snow and sleet are expected in Burlington and St. Albans. 

But there's a 10 percent chance those cities would end up with 14 to 18 inches of snow and sleet, and a 10 percent chance they'll get as little as four or five inches. 

Southern Vermont could get even more ice than I outlined, which would add to the trouble down there .

Bottom line:

We will have some surprises Sunday, maybe with forecast misses on the amount of snow, ice or wind, but we do know it will be a nasty day.  Sunday will be the best day of the winter to just hunker down at home.

If we get a lot of power outages you'll need to check on elderly or vulnerable neighbors who could run into real trouble real fast if their houses get cold from lack of electricity. 

The one good bit of news is it appears that this giant storm will end, for now, our seemingly endless parade of storms. 

After a cold first half of the week, it looks like late week and next weekend might not be exactly warm, but certainly more tolerable. 

Saturday Morning Vermont Storm Update: High Winds To Worsen Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain

Latest snow and sleet forecast map issued Saturday 
morning shows little change. Most snow probably
northwest. A little less accumulation along
western slopes of Green Mountain where strong
downslope winds could limit the intensity
of the snow or sleet.

 We're still bracing for quite a Vermont storm on Sunday, and to an extent Monday. 

The forecast for a thump of snow, then a lot of mixed precipitation, then a little more snow has in general not changed since last night.  However, forecasters are getting more and more concerned about wind. 

In addition to the existing winter storm warning, a high wind warning is in effect for Rutland County Sunday.  

Further north a wind advisory is in effect for the western slopes of the Green Mountains pretty much all the way to the Canadian border.  Strong winds are also looking like they will be a factor at the tail end of the storm later Sunday night and Monday. 

As we usually do, let's get into the daily details. Bear with me, there's a lot to get into with this one,

TODAY: As expected, it's starting off cold, with lows in the single numbers with a few below zero readings. It won't get much warmer as skies gradually cloud over.  You'll see on weather radar this afternoon what looks like widespread snow moving in. But the Arctic air over us is dry, so most of that will evaporate before hitting the ground. 

We shouldn't really see anything more than a few snowflakes until after dark. 

TONIGHT: We'll mostly just see light to moderate snow overnight, the kind we're used to, and don't consider a big deal.  Sure, the roads will get slippery, but it won't be anything that unusual. The main show is on Sunday. 

Freezing rain forecast map issued Saturday 
morning by the National Weather Service.
Far southern Vermont could have some
real ice trouble, especially as winds
get stronger Sunday night. 

SUNDAY: A rough winter day for sure, with some places more rough than others. Everybody except perhaps extreme southwest Vermont will start the day with snow falling at a pretty good clip. 

Then, gradually through the morning and very early afternoon far north, the snow will mix with and change to mostly sleet. The sleet will spread south to north across the state.

Wind Worries

The storm's orientation now appears poised to cause one of those damaging downslope wind events along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  I still don't think this will be as bad as the twin wind storms of January 2024, but this will be bad enough. 

Rutland County will probably, arguably see the worst effects of this storm as a snow to sleet and freezing rain scenario in Rutland County should combine with gusts to or even over 50 or 60 mph during the day. It looks like there, the potentially damaging gusts might not be limited to the immediate western slopes like in Mendon or Shrewsbury. 

The damaging gusts could extend into more populated areas like Rutland City and Town, and even as far west as Castleton, Poultney, West Rutland and Wells. 

If enough freezing rain mixes in, it will be all the worse because the wind will be hitting trees and power lines burdened with some ice. Even if everything stays sleet and ice doesn't cling to trees, the winds will be strong enough to knock some of them down, or at least remove some branches.

Further north, a wind advisory is up, as noted along the rest of the Green Mountain western slopes. Places like Ripton, Bristol, Huntington, Underhill, Cambridge, eastern Enosburg, Bakersfield  and Richford could see wind gusts to 55 mph.  Locally higher in some of the most wind prone areas. 

The one saving grace is precipitation - whatever it may be - will be somewhat lighter in areas with the strongest winds. The downslope winds tend to locally discourage heavy snow or sleet or rain or whatever. 

Forecast wind gust map for Sunday. Orange stripe
along western Green Mountain slopes indicate gusts
at or over 50 mph. This map doesn't include expected
strong wind later Sunday night and Monday. 

Also, places well away from the western slopes, like most of eastern Vermont and the Champlain Valley mostly along and west of Route 7 shouldn't have all that much wind during the day Sunday. It could gust to 25 to 30 mph there, annoying when you're being hit in the face by sleet, but not terribly dangerous.

Mixed Precipitation

There's still disagreement among meteorologists as to exactly when the changeover will happen, how far north the worst of the sleet and freezing rain gets, and what proportion of this storm will be snow, and which proportion will be sleet. 

I think everyone should expect at least some sleet, but expect surprises. Some places will get less snow and more sleet than currently in the forecast, and in some places it might be the opposite. The further south you go, though, the more mixed precipitation you'll get.

A wild card is freezing rain. While it looks like the majority of this mess will be sleet, freezing rain should mix in, especially the further south you go.  Freezing rain is much worse, because it will cling to trees and weigh them down.  That has implications for Sunday night and Monday. More on that in a bit.

Unless the forecast changes a lot, I think northern Vermont will see very little if any freezing rain. It'll be a sleet thing up there. 

The further south you go, the more freezing rain you encounter. I am especially worried about a few areas in far southern Vermont, where a quarter inch or more of ice could accumulate on everything. Once you go above a quarter inch of ice, you start losing tree branches and power lines. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

As what by then will be a twin storm system - one a little to our north, the other strengthening along the New England Coast, colder air will sweep in Sunday evening in all levels of the atmosphere over Vermont. 

That'll change everything back to snow. There could be a really heavy burst of snow for a little while in the evening north. Then it should start to taper off overnight, first in southern Vermont valleys and gradually working its way so that by Monday morning, it will be mostly the mountains still getting snow. 

Strong west to northwest winds will develop.  A high wind watch is up for far southern Vermont Sunday night through Monday evening for possible gusts as strong as 60 mph. 

If there's ice on the trees from Sunday's freezing rain down there, that's a recipe for more power outages. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, expect wind gusts of 40 mph later Sunday night and Monday. The eastern slopes of the Green Mountains could see 50 mph gusts. We might need a wind advisory for later Sunday night and Monday. 

The strong winds will blow around the fluffier snow that falls atop the likely icy crusty Sunday night. Travel will be no picnic on Monday, either, especially as temperatures will stay quite low. 

BOTTOM LINE/WHAT TO DO

Forecasters in general are still calling for a pretty substantial total accumulation of six to nine inches of snow and sleet for most of us.  Sleet is heavy, so if you get a lot of it, just be forewarned that cleanup won't be a breeze. 

Because of the extra snow at the tail end of the storm the northern and central Green Mountains could do very well with this storm, despite a layer of sleet that might be in there. I would not at all be surprised if some northern Vermont ski areas end up with well over a foot of new snow by Monday night. 

Also, if for some reason the sleet doesn't make it all the way to the Canadian border, some far northern Vermont towns could see over a foot of snow.  All depends on the sleet.

Stay off the roads Sunday.  Especially if you're in the high wind warning and advisory areas, where debris on the roads or falling branches would add to the danger. Charge your devices and get your LED candles out if you're in the high wind/freezing rain zones. You might well lose power on Sunday, and it could take awhile to get the electric back. Especially with strong winds continuing Monday. 

Pro tip: If you are not going to move your car until at least Monday, let the early snow pile up on it.  Then any freezing rain will fall atop the snow, making it easier to clean off the car. If the windshields are covered with snow, the freezing rain won't cling directly to the windows, so you won't have to break your arms chopping and scraping the ice. 

Expect a rough commute Monday morning for much of Vermont, too. It's hard to scrape all that ice off the roads, especially as temperatures will be low enough for salt to become ineffective. Snow will continue in some areas Monday morning, too, especially in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Blowing snow will be an issue. 

Despite getting into the second half of February, winter looks like it will hang tough for quite awhile yet. It'll be very cold the first half of the week, with highs in the teens, low near zero. The cold will relax somewhat by the end of the week though. 

It still look like a new nor'easter will go to far to our south and east to bother us next Thursday, but that's not a unanimous opinion among the computer models. We'll still need to keep an eye on it just in case.   

Snow Maybe Even On Vermont Valley Floors Tonight, Maybe Icy Spots On A Few Roads?

The National Weather Service is predicting a bit of snow
in Vermont tonight, even on valley floors. 

 We just might have our first real bout with winter in Vermont tonight. 

True, it won't be much of a bout, but there could be a little snow accumulation. Even on some valley floors. 

The whole thing is a little jab to remind us winter is on the way, despite the never ending summer we've kind of had this autumn

Tonight's expected snow will be unlike our lovely snoliage we had in mid-October, which missed valleys but dumped up to a foot of snow on the summits.

Nobody in Vermont will get much snow tonight, but valley floors in central and northern Vermont could see a thin dusting to a half inch, while the highest elevations will clock in with up to two inches.

THE SETUP

If you went outside today, you know how blustery and chilly it was. Temperatures were only in the 40s to near 50, and winds gusting to 30 mph made it feel chillier.

Those broken clouds you saw all day were thickening up late this afternoon, and some sprinkles were already coming down in spots. Those sprinkles were snow flurries in the mountains. I already noticed a dusting of snow on the ground in the traffic cams along high elevation Route 242 in Westfield.

A disturbance is coming in from the west, which is adding to the moisture in the air. That will increase the showers this evening. The air is too dry to produce anything heavy, but most places in the northern half of Vermont will see things get damp.

Meanwhile, a new cold front is pressing in from southern Quebec. The chilly air with this thing will change the rain to snow in many places, including valleys. 

You'll actually need to watch it if you're driving tonight, especially in high elevations. It's going to get below freezing pretty fast later tonight, and there could actually be a couple icy patches here and there. 

It's a reminder to get your snow tires on if you haven't already. 

Screen grab from a traffic camera along high elevation
Route 242 in Westfield, Vermont late this afternoon
showed a bit of snow on the ground already.

Skies will clear in the pre-dawn hours, and we'll have the coldest morning of the autumn so far. Everybody will be in the 20s. A hard freeze. It's probably not worth trying to rescue anything still growing in the garden this time. 

There might even be some upper teens in the cold hollows of the north. 

IN PERSPECTIVE 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is actually going with an uncertain forecast of 0.2 inches of snow in Burlington. If that happens, it will be the first measurable October snow there since 2011, when 0.1 inch fell on October 30 that year.

If Burlington gets just a trace, that will be a little late, since the average date of the first flurries there is October 15. Still, with our recent run of warm autumns, if Burlington gets a few snow flurries tonight, that will be the first October snow since 2020.

OUTLOOK

This bout with quote, unquote winter won't last long. Monday will turn out to be a bright, sunshiny day with much lighter winds. Highs will only be in the 40s, which is definitely cooler than average for this time of year. But the sun and lack of wind will make it feel nicer than it did today.

After another cold night Monday night, a sharp warm up is in store and we might be looking at record warmth by Wednesday and Thursday. 

More on that in a post I'm planning to write up Monday morning. 

Kind Of A Weird Severe Storm Threat In Vermont Today

By the looks of the sky this morning over St. Albans,
Vermont, you'd think we're starting a refreshingly
cool, dry, bright sunny Sunday. But the humidity
was oppressive when this photo was taken,
which could help set off strong storms between
now and at least early afternoon. 

 As expected, we had a bunch of rain yesterday and last evening and as we start our Sunday, the air out there in Vermont is like a wet blanket. 

It's super humid, but at least the wind died down.  The gusts to over 40 mph in the Champlain Valley and a few other spots led to a few power outages and a bit of tree and garden damage.

The sun is out in many spots in Vermont early this morning, too. That is actually a potentially bad thing.  

As a pre-frontal trough - which is sort of a mini-cold front ahead of a "real" cold front - comes in, the sun could work with this thing, helping destabilize the air to create a few severe thunderstorms. 

Usually, it takes until well into the afternoon for storms to really get going, and this pre-frontal trough will mostly be past Vermont by, say 1 p.m. or so.

So all, good, right?

But the air is so humid, at least near the surface, and atmospheric conditions are primed enough so that strong storms could get going very early. I'm writing this at 8 a.m. Sunday, and there's already a couple storms developing in the Adirondacks. As of 8:45 a.m. one of them was approaching the northern Champlain Valley, but at that point didn't look severe. At least not yet. 

These could intensify pretty fast and bring strong wind gusts and torrential downpours to a few places in Vermont by later this morning. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington notes there's a layer of dry air high up above us. That would help limit the number of storms that form. 

The bottom line is that a few places could see some tree and power line damage this morning and early afternoon. Most places will be fine, but keep an eye to the skies. 

Also, in parts of northern Vermont, the soil is saturated.  The National Weather Service notes that the moderately heavy rain we saw yesterday and last night prompted quick rises along the Lamoille and Passumpsic rivers, and probably some smaller rivers and streams in northern Vermont. 

That's an indication that the soils can't hold much more rainfall. So, if any of these storms this morning or early afternoon are persistent, their torrential downpours could trigger a local flash flood. 

Not a guarantee, but something to watch. 

That pre-frontal trough, will head east and south into the rest of New England this afternoon and evening. There, the timing is such that those areas stand a better chance of severe storms that most of Vermont does. 

The activity back here in Vermont later this morning won't do all that much to ditch the high humidity, but it will help just a little. 

Meanwhile, the "real" cold front is lurking nearby. That will come through later this afternoon. The front could have its own batch of scattered shower and thunderstorms, but I strongly doubt there would be anything severe later on today. 

You'll notice the air changing this evening to something much more tolerable.

LOOKING AHEAD

As I mentioned yesterday, the weather systems over the past few days have been more energetic than usual for this time of year. They have been more like something you'd see in the spring, not summer.

Well, after this, summer is returning. In all respects. 

Weather fronts and storms will be weak, slow moving and erratic in the coming days, like they usually are in the summer. That will pretty much cut down on the drama, but of course, in the summer, if the conditions are right, you can alway get some strong storms or gullywashers.

So far, nothing particularly exciting is in the forecast for the next few days. 

You'll notice the temperatures will rise and so will the humidity after a comfortable Monday and sort of comfortable Tuesday.

We won't see extremely hot stuff like we dealt with in mid-June, but it will feel like summer. There will also be an almost ever-present threat of hit or miss showers and storms from Wednesday onward, but most of the time will be rain-free. 

At this point, it looks like the best chances of rain come Wedneday night, when a failing cold front arrives and pretty much passes out dead overhead. It could cause some local downpours, but nothing terrible.

The relative lack of rain in the upcoming week is mostly good. But it depends where you are in Vermont.

Much of northern Vermont needs to dry out some so we don't have a repeat of last summer's flood hell. On the other hand, parts of the southern half of Vermont could stand to see more rain. 

Any rain that does fall in the upcoming week, unfortunately is most likely in the northern half of the state. 

Sunday Evening Vermont Forecast Update Will Disappoint Snow Lovers

Updated National Weather Service snow prediction map. 
Predictions have been really scaled back in southern
Vermont, and this storm is increasingly looking 
underwhelming for snow loversl 

 It looks like the expected snow tonight in southern Vermont might go pfffft. 

At least to an extent.  

Meteorologists have scaled back expected snow accumulations for a reason you're going to mock: Dry air.

We've been socked in with low clouds and fog for days. So when we finally have an opportunity to squeeze some snow from all this wet air, all of a sudden we're talking about dry air?

Yep.

And said dry air is not going to solve our problems with this interminable overcast we're dealing with. 

The dry air is punching in several thousand feet overhead, up where snowflakes can form, not down here where most of us live. So the low overcast we've been oppressed by will continue. But the spot in the atmosphere than can manufacture snow flakes looks like it will falter.

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington describes it, the mid-level dry air will probably limit snowfall. Plus, the lift in the atmosphere is not great. You want rising air to create precipitation and we have it in this situation. But it's not impressive.

The result, at least according to Sunday evening forecasts, will be an underwhelming 1.5 to 3.5 inches of snow for Vermont from Route 2 southward. I suppose a few high elevations down south could see four inches or a little more.

By winter storm standard in Vermont, that's a big yawn. 

I suppose we could still be surprised by more snow than that, given how so many storms have over-performed this winter. But I'm not holding my breath. 

Areas of Vermont north of Route 2 were never expected to get much snow and that's still true.  OK, those northern areas might get a dusting to as much as a little less than an inch of snow. But who cares? That's not exactly Blizzard of the Century. 

On the bright side, parts of far northern Vermont got a brief interval of dim sun earlier today. The sun was sort of,  kind of out in a wimpy way for a half hour late this morning in St. Albans before the dark, low clouds dominated again. 

I'll take anything I can get. 

Looking ahead, I suppose we might get some sun Tuesday and Wednesday, which would be nice. But those breathtaking clear  blue skies with white snow coating the mountains we often get this time of year is not in the cards. 

At least we're still not seeing any signs of extreme cold for the next week or so. Through next weekend temperatures will vary from about average to moderately warmer than you'd expect for this time of year 

 

Sunday's Vermont Post-Mortem: Overall Forecast Was Accurate. But A Bit Of An Over-Performer

Snowfall forecast issued Saturday afternoon, more than
eight hours before the snowstorm began. 

I know all eyes are on the very nasty storm due here in Vermont tonight, but I also like to assess how outfits like the National Weather Service did in forecasting the last storm. 

As we drew closer and closer to the storm, the predicted snowfall totals kept rising as well. 

By the time we got to the night before the storm, it looks like forecasters had a great handle on where the most snow would fall. The only inaccuracy worth noting is that some areas got more snow than forecast.

The first map on this page is what the National Weather Service was forecasting on the afternoon of January 6. This is a good eight hours or more before the storm arrived.

As you can see, the southeastern half of Vermont was due for the most snow, while the far north would get the least. Also note the narrow zone of lighter expected snowfall going along extreme western Vermont near the border with New York. 

Actual snowfall on Sunday. It over-performed in 
several parts of Vermont, especially in 
and near Orange County in eastern Vermont. 

The second map on this page shows what actually happened with the storm.  

The biggest surprise was the heavier than expected snow in northeastern Vermont. 

Instead of the Northeast Kingdom missing out on the snow, the area of lighter snow ended up getting displaced eastward into northern New Hampshire. 

Orange County, Vermont, south of St. Johnsbury, was the unexpected winner with this storm. 

The forecast or that area called for six, seven or eight inches of snow, generally speaking. Instead, most of that county got over a foot. There was a report of 22 inches from Groton.  

The forecasted zone of lighter snow in far western Vermont materialized. But even so, northwestern Vermont got a little more snow than forecast. 

Bottom line, the storm was more or less an over-performer.  I'd give forecast accuracy a grade of B.

That's actually very good, as Vermont snowstorms are notoriously hard to forecast. Usually, even the best meteorologists don't usually do as well as they did with Sunday's storm. 

Now Tracking Two Storms To Hit At Least Parts Of Vermont

Map shows the current thinking on the chances of 
needing winter storm warnings Sunday. Purple area is at 
least an 80 percent chance. That tapers down to 
roughly a 20 percent chance in blue.  All this
is of course still subject to change. 

 I woke up to a bit of snow on the ground this morning in St. Albans, Vermont, making things look a little more like winter. 

Snow showers were continuing to head south and east across Vermont as of early and mid morning. 

There could be some slick spots amid the heavier snow showers, especially as temperatures drop below freezing behind a cold front from late morning on into the afternoon.

Temperatures are crashing pretty steeply behind the front, so expect temperatures to drop well into the 20s this afternoon. Our little early January mini-thaw is over.

Which sets the stage for Sunday, which we've been talking about for days now. And a subsequent storm set for the middle of next week. That second storm, if early indications prove me right, would be much more of a problem than the first. 

SUNDAY SNOW?

We do't have all the answers  yet for Sunday but we're getting more clarity now. Early indications are that southern Vermont, along with southern and central New England away from the coast and interior New York and Pennsylvania are in the sweet spot for snow.

At least for now. 

There's still wiggle room with this. If the expected path of the storm takes just a slight jog to the northwest, then most of Vermont gets a decent dump of snow. A little jog to the southeast and we get jilted. 

It's a little early to be talking accumulations, but if the forecast stays roughly the same as it is now, places along and south of Route 4 have the best chance of seeing six inches or more. I said chances, not guarantee. Not yet, anyway.  

The storm should be a fast mover, and largely out of our hair by Monday morning, aside from a few snow showers. 

We will, of course, have much more detail on this one as we get closer to the event. At least now, it's looking like at least part of Vermont will actually get some sort of event out of Sunday's storm. The question is still how much?

MIDWEEK STORM

Forecast models have been consistent about a major storm coming through the middle and eastern part of the nation Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks like it might be a powerhouse, with a wide ranging risks of severe storms, heavy snow, high winds, rains and mixed precipitation, depending on where you are from the Great Plains east.

For us, the risk at this point seems like it might be strong winds, and rain, snow or mixed precipitation depending on the exact track of this storm. This one bears watching because it could contain quite a punch for somebody. Don't exactly know who yet, so stay tuned. 

Early Alert: More Vermont Heavy, Wet Snow, Power Outages Possible Sunday Night

An initial snow forecast for upcoming storm Sunday night
Take this with a grain of salt. Updated forecasts could
greatly increase or decrease expected amounts.

EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - I'm glad I'm overseas and not dealing with wet, dreary weather in Vermont and the potential for yet another wet, heavy snowstorm over the Green Mountain State.

Forecasters are watching a storm for later Sunday and Sunday night that could bring another round of heavy, wet snow and power outages to at least parts of Vermont. 

The trouble is, as of Saturday morning, the weather models are still all over the place with this upcoming storm.  Some give us mostly rain, others mostly snow, others split the difference.

That lack of agreement is unusual given that the storm is only 36 or so hours away.  The one area of some agreement among the models is that precipitation, whether it be rain, snow or a combination, will probably be moderate to heavy. 

On top of that, much like the surprise, heavy wet snowstorm on November 27, we do know that temperatures will be marginal. In other words. if it's only a degree or two warmer than expected, then the storm would have more rain than snow, so it wouldn't be that big a deal.

If it's a degree or two colder than forecast, then the wet, heavy snow will be more widespread than expected, which means more widespread power outages.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has so far held off on issuing any winter weather watches, because the forecast is so extremely iffy. 

Initial forecasts issued by the NWS early Saturday seem to call for three to seven inches of wet snow across most of northern and central Vermont and high elevations of southern Vermont, with one to three inches in the warmer Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Valley.

Take that forecast with an enormous grain of salt, though. It's almost certain to change one way or another before we arrive at the storm. 

Since we've already had one big, unpleasant weather surprise recently, I'd get ready for another, just to be safe. That means charge your devices, have LED candles at the ready and be prepared for a terrible Monday morning commute. If you prepare and nothing happens no great loss, right?

So far at least, it seems the best chances of heavy, wet snow are along and east of the Green Mountains. But that could change, too. 

Before we get to the storm, expect rather overcast, somewhat mild and dreary conditions through Sunday afternoon. There's a chance of rain today, mainly north and patchy drizzle or even freezing drizzle overnight tonight. 

I'll try to provide updates best I can, though since I'm in Edinburgh, I might not be fully able to keep on top of it ,unfortunately. As is always the case, rely on the National Weather Service in South Burlington and the excellent television and radio meteorologists in the Green Mountain State for the best updates.