DOGE Cuts Turned Devastating, Deadly Alaska Storm Into A Surprise, Leaving Some Unprepared

Destruction in western Alaska due to the severe
storm that hit over the weekend. Forecasting for
the storm appears to be substandard because
of cutbacks in funding and staffing for the 
National Weather Service

The horrible storm that caused at least one death and intense destruction in parts of western Alaska was forecasted inaccurately, due to DOGE cuts orchestrated by Elon Musk and the Trump administration, according to a CNN report. 

The bulk of the storm struck an area south of where computer models suggested it would. The models were apparently off because of a lack of good data. 

So-called Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE cutbacks meant some weather balloon launches were scrubbed for lack of funding. 

Per CNN:

"Weather balloon, which are typically launched twice a day, provide crucial information on wind speed and direction, air temperature, humidity, and other measurements. Balloon data is fed directly into sophisticated models used to predict the weather. 

However, there were few, if any, balloons to take measurements of what the weather was doing as the remains of Typhoon Halong approached Alaska late last week." 

Likely because of the lack of the balloon data, computer models had the storm striking the area around the Bering Strait, the point where Alaska and Russia are the closest to each other. 

Instead, the storm hit struck coastal southwest Alaska, sending deadly storm surges into communities like Kwigillingok and Kipnuk and other remote towns.  Houses floated away, some with people inside. Rescuers were able to retrieve at least two dozen people. However, one person is confirmed dead and two are missing. 

National Weather Service forecasts in Alaska did issue many warnings for the area that was hit hardest boy the storm, but they did so without the help of accurate model projects made days in advance.

That might have meant that warnings that should have gone out sooner didn't. 

The Alaska Beacon compared this storm with another ex-typhoon named Merbok in 2022.

"Unlike Merkok, which was very well forecast by the global models, this one's final track and intensity weren't clear until the storm was within 36 hours of crossing into Alaska's waters. That's too late for evacuations in many places."

The area hit by the storm is remote, so it's not easy to deal with an extreme storm. It's not like the Lower 48, where people can evacuate to a nearby school, municipal building or hotel when severe weather looms.  In Alaska, you need more time to prepare. 

The Alaska Beacon also tells us:  "There have not been any upper air weather balloon observations at Saint Paul Island in the Bering Sea since late August or at Kotzebue since February. Bethel and Cold Bay are limited to one per day instead of two. At Nome, there were no weather balloons for two full days as the storm."

Meteorologists are still trying to assess to what extent the lack of balloon launches had on forecast accuracy. 

 CNN continues:

"'Not having balloons didn't help,' the forecast, said a NOAA official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, although forecasts for Alaska also really on data from Asia as storms move from that region into North America." 

All the major computer models had errors in the projected path of the storm, though it's hard to tease out  how much of that error was due to the lack of balloon launches and their data, and how much might have been from other factors.  

The aftermath of the storm is more difficult in remote areas like the west coast of Africa. There's no Home Depot right around the corner to buy replacement roofing, windows and flooring. For those whose houses were destroyed, there's nowhere to go. 

Hundreds of people have been displaced. The Alaska Beacon says residents are face with an impossible decision: They could go to come place like Anchorage for the winter and return next summer to rebuild. But cities are expensive. 

However, there's no housing in the remote coastline of Alaska to move into. All disasters are incredibly difficult for the victims. In Alaska, it's even more so. 

 

I'm Wondering If Weather Forecast Accuracy Is Already Declining Due To Trump Cutbacks, Decisions

Sunday afternoon was supposed to be at least partly
sunny in Vermont.  But it wasn't. This is the sky
over St. Albans, Vermont at around 4:30 p.m.
Sunday. National Weather Service meteorologists
remain excellent, but are their forecasts
suffering from degraded data due to 
Trump NOAA cutbacks? I'm wondering. 

 I'm beginning to suspect that weather forecasts are getting less accurate.

Thank you, Trump administration. 

I don't have any empirical data to back up this suspicion At least not yet. But my radar is buzzing on this one.  

Locally here in Vermont, there's been some forecast misses lately.  Sunday was a classic example. After some morning clouds, it was supposed to clear up into a mostly sunny day, with temperatures up near 80.

It didn't happen. For the most part, it stayed cloudy all day.  And the clouds kept temperatures lower than expected. 

Saturday's forecast was kind of wonky too, with less rain than expected across central and parts of southern Vermont. 

Forecast misses happen, they always have. The atmosphere is so complicated, you'd expect that some things are going on up there that we just don't get. We get surprises. 

More importantly, I'm not at all disparaging the excellent meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.  Or anywhere. They're serving the public as awesomely as they always did.

I have to wonder, though, if the Trump administration cutbacks at NOAa and the National Weather Service are starting to have effects. 

Before Trump, as Mother Jones explains:

"......NOAA has built one of the most robust weather monitoring systems in the world, collecting 6.3 billion observations per day. The NWS then plugs the data from these instruments into computer models to predict the next torrential downpour, cold snap, heat wave or thunderstorm."

That was then, this is now. 

NOAA still  has a robust data collection system, but it's not as robust as it once was. Staffing is thin, thanks to pre-existing vacancies and especially the hundreds of layoffs under DOGE, that slash and burn of federal agencies that Elon Musk headed up earlier this year. 

There's fewer weather balloon launches, which give critical information as to the nuances of what's going on in the atmosphere. Other programs are cut back as well. 

 These cutbacks leave us with garbage in, garbage out. If the quality of the data is not quite up to snuff, then there might be missing pieces of the weather picture, so the forecast could be off.

A huge share of the raw data meteorologists need in the United States comes from NOAA/National Weather Service. Your friendly TV meteorologist uses that data for her forecast.  I'm not a meteorologist, but I know my way around the National Weather Service and can find information. That's what I use to try to give you a picture of what's going on. 

My musings here are just a theory. So far.  Like I mentioned, I have not yet seen any rigorous analyses of weather forecasts have degraded.

This past weekend might have been just the usual rough patch that happens from time to time. 

It's also not as if all forecasts will be wildly wrong. Most will still be spot on.  Even the ones that are off, like Sunday's clouds and Saturday's weird rainfall distribution in Vermont, were still partly on track. 

For instance, the National Weather Service had told us in advance Sunday morning would be rather cloudy. It's just the clearing skies hit a few hours later than forecast. It got clear in the evening, not the afternoon. 

The Saturday forecast was correct in that heavier rain went through Vermont and lighter amount fell south. It was just the light south amounts were by and large really light. 

An expected sunny Sunday that turns rather cloudy is at worst just a minor bummer.

However, I worry that far more dangerous brewing weather will get missed. True, the National Weather Service does its best to go all hands on deck when things look threatening. But the lack of data, the shortage of meteorologists increase the chances that critical clues in a developing weather disaster could easily get overlooked.

Which would cost lives.

These fears about worse forecasts are nothing new. We talked about this as soon as the cutbacks started this past winter. .    Now those cutbacks are here, and I believe we're starting to see the effects.

Maybe it already happened. It's been a very busy tornado year in the United States. A few tornadoes either went unwarned or warnings went out long after the twister touched down. This has always happened from time to time.  Sometimes, tornadoes managed to "hide" from the best radar images and from the most experienced meteorologists.

Did unwarned tornadoes and severe storms happen more frequently this spring and early summer?  have no idea, but it's worth looking into. 

If it turns out that weather forecasts are indeed getting inaccurate, and if it leads to unnecessary deaths, the blood is on the hands of those in the Trump administration.

Not that any of them really care. 

Florida Meteorologist/Hurricane Expert Now Fears Storm Prediction Accuracy Gone With NOAA Cuts

Florida meteorologists John Morales, one of the nation's
top hurricane forecasters, worried on air that NOAA
cutbacks would mean critical hurricane forecasts 
would be less accurate this year, which in turn
would endanger lives

In the first couple of days of September, 2019, Category 5 Hurricane Dorian crawled through the Bahamas, causing extreme damage. 

Dorian seemed headed straight for Florida, and residents there began to panic. 

Florida meteorologist John Morales, and one of the nation's top hurricane experts, told his audience to relax. 

Morales reassured viewers that Dorian would make a sharp right turn just before reaching Florida, sparing the state from great harm. 

For non-meteorologists, a hurricane making such a sharp, sudden turn didn't sound plausible. But Morales was confident. 

And he was right. That sharp turn came on the afternoon of September 3, and Florida was more or less safe.

I'm bringing this up now because Morales was on the air as usual recently at NBC 6 in South Florida, one day earlier this month. This time, he his audience he no longer has the confidence that he could forecast a hurricane so precisely and so correctly like he did with Dorian

Morales' skill set is as good as ever. NOAA, which is responsible for providing the data for meteorologists like Morales, is not as good as ever. 

".... I am here to tell you that I am not sure that I can do that this year because of the cuts, the gutting, the sledgehammer attack on science in general," Morales said on a June 9 broadcast on NBC 6 South Florida. 

The massive cuts the Trump administration has made to NOAA has led to staffing shortages at National Weather Service offices across the nation, including those in central and southern Florida. Fewer weather balloons are being launched to study the details of what the atmosphere is doing and how that atmosphere will steer storms, and how the strength of those storms change. 

Because of these developments, less data is being collected, "What we're starting to see is that the quality of the forecast is becoming degraded," Morales said. 

There's also a chance that we'll have fewer hurricane hunter flights into hurricanes. Those flights collect detailed data that really help forecasters pin down exactly where a hurricane will come ashore and how strong it will be once it gets there. 

"We may be flying blind, and we may not know exactly how strong a hurricane is before it reaches the coastline," Morales said.

He concluded by telling viewers to call their representatives and tell them these cost must be stopped.

TRUMP'S PEOPLE RESPOND, WHILE MUSK FADES

Unfortunately, I keep getting less and less trustful about the truthfulness of anything a federal spokesperson says under the Trump regime, but here goes:

People magazine, reaching out to NOAA, said a spokesperson said the National Hurricane Center "has a sufficient number of forecasters to fill mission-critical operational shifts during the 2025 hurricane season."  The spokesperson said the hurricane center "remains dedicated" to providing timely weather forecasts and warnings."

We'll see about that. 

Public pressure to provide enough staff to allow NOAA/National Weather Service to perform its mission to protect the public might actually be having a little bit of positive effect on the Trump administration.

Especially with Elon Musk pretty much out of the picture for now. 

Musk was exceptionally keen on getting rid of practically everyone working for the federal government including those in NOAA, To his mind, the only person that needs to be protected from scary weather is himself.  Screw everyone else. He is, after the all, the ultimate Main Character Syndrome poster boy.

Now, Musk's bromance with Donald Trump seems to be over.  (Bill Maher, in the spirt of "Brajalina" or "Bennifer"  called the Musk/Trump bromance "Elump" which is kinda fun).

With Musk out of the way for now and public pressure growing to keep the Nation Weather Service functioning,   there is a tiny bit of appetite for hiring back some of the lost staff at NOAA,  Not enough to solve its problems, but maybe ease them a tiny bit. 

IMPROVING NOAA STAFFING

NOAA says they will reshuffle staff to areas where staff shortages are especially acute. Basically encouraging remaining staff to move to offices that are really short on workers, Which doesn't really solve the overall problem of not enough resources, but I suppose it's a tiny start.

Even better news came a little over a week ago, which is a nice symptom of Musk's departure:  

The National Weather Service lost more than 560 employees to layoff and early retirement incentives., Now, the NWS has managed to get permission to hire about 125 new meteorologists, technicians and specialists for forecast offices around the nation, CNN reported.

This might help with National Weather Service offices that can't be staffed overnight during periods of non-threatening weather. Or even better, keep enough staff to meteorologists can adequately keep their eyes on the ball when there is dangerous weather. 

The new hires still won't be enough to overcome the effects of the bigger staff losses. I, like Morales, am not comfortable with the lack of NOAA staffing, even if those 125 replacement people come on board. I still think weather forecast quality and accuracy is degraded, despite the heroic efforts of remaining meteorologists with NWS. 

SENSIBLE LEGISLATION

I was intrigued with a bill recently introduced by U.S. Senators Jerry Moran, (R-Kansas) and Gary Peters (D-Michigan) that would exempt National Weather Service employees from any executive order or memorandum imposing a hiring freeze,

It would essentially designate NWS employees as public safety officials, sort of like FBI agents or Border Patrol officers. 

Makes sense, since National Weather Service meteorologists' main job is public safety, right?  I also find it interesting that this is a bipartisan bill coming out in these bifurcated times. 

I have no idea whether this bill will go anywhere, but it's another sign the Trump administration is out of step with the majority of Americans who agree with Morales and want to continue receiving the best possible information when deadly storms threaten. 

I imagine the Trump administration isn't a fan of this good idea for Moran and Peters, so we'll see.

Still, under the increasingly autocratic Trump, it's getting riskier to criticize the prez and/or his  administration. Especially if you're a widely watched public figure like Morales. The Trump people have a habit of unleashing their MAGA goons on them by launching social media attacks, doxxing them, even threatening them with arrest. 

Or trying to demand the corporations that employ these outspoken truth tellers "or else."

After the broadcast, The Guardian asked Morales if "he was worried about retaliation from an administration that's south to defund and disparage scientists. Morales said 'No,  not at all. Science is science."

 

Ominous Real World Effects Of NOAA/NWS Cutbacks Beginning To Show

Real effects of Trump administration cutbacks at 
NOAA are now starting to be felt, and it's going
to keep getting worse and worse. 

 At this point, I'd be willing to wager that the forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are now less accurate and less thorough then they were before Donald Trump took office. 

Between the firings, the slashing of funding, and the voluntary buyouts - another 300 National Weather Service employees were expected to take the latest buyout this past week - the NWS is already crippled. 

I fear the short staffing is already leading to missed forecasts during spells of dangerous weather. And this will only keep getting worse

Eight of the 122 NWS local offices across the nation will have seven or fewer meteorologists doing the work of 12 to 15 people, reports the Washington Post. 

Some of the worst staff shortages are in places where fast-developing and fast-evolving tornadoes, severe storms and flash floods are most common, especially this time of year. These offices include Kansas City, Louisville, Des Moines, Grand Rapids and Omaha. 

The Omaha National Weather Service just recently had to deal with an outbreak of tornadoes and exceptionally destructive hail storms. Those storms required careful monitoring of a complex set of severe storms and quick warnings to the public.  

The Omaha office still managed to do an excellent job of warning residents. However, a tornado that did not have a National Weather Service warning hit Storm Lake, Iowa, which is Omaha's coverage zone.  Sometimes developing tornadoes are missed by even the most conscientious meteorologist, but I still have to wonder if staffing shortages created the environment to miss signs the Storm Lake tornado was forming. 

Here's how things can get missed, as John Sokich, a recently retired director of congressional affairs for the NWS, explained to USA Today. 

Meteorologists are under particular stress during severe weather, when lives are at stake. '"'You're talking 12-hour shifts and you constantly have to be on point,' he said. 'It's physically draining to keep going like that and something will break. Working through high impact weather events for multiple days presents physical limitations is stressful and mentally draining.'

Even more draining when some of the tools you need to monitor the severe weather are no longer available.  

We've already reported on the reduction of weather balloon launches, which help forecasters understand the complexities in the atmosphere that can tell them when and where dangerous storms will hit. 

The Sacramento, California National Weather Service office will do almost all of its forecasting during days shifts, as the night will be minimally staffed unless severe weather is present. This change means that such things as fire weather watches and winter storm warnings will mostly only be issued during the day. 

If these warnings are not issued in a timely manner, that could give emergency managers left time to prepare for hazardous conditions. 

As I've previously reported, the research arm is taking the biggest hit, as the Trump administration thinks anything remotely related to climate change is off limits, because in Trump's addled mind, climate change doesn't exist.

The Pensacola News Journal sums up the effects of the NOAA research cuts just in Florida: 

"If the proposed budget cuts to NOAA are enacted as is, it would have wide-ranging impacts on climate research, significantly decrease the accuracy of hurricane forecasting, end climate monitoring for farmers reliant on the service and ultimately leave coastal communities, like the entire state of Florida, to fend for themselves during hurricane season."

On an even more macro level, the American Meteorological Association and National Weather Association, released a detailed, grim statement about the cutbacks. 

The statement said in part: 

"Without NOAA research, National Weather Service weather models and products will stagnate, observational data collection will be reduced, public outreach will decrease, undergraduate and graduate student support will drop, and NOAA funding for universities will plummet. 

In effect, the scientific backbone and workforce needed to keep weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings accurate and effective will be drastically undercut with unknown - and yet almost certainly disastrous - consequences for public safety and economic health."

This excellent joint statement between the AMA and NWA give us examples of how this all will affect you:

"Imagine what will  happen to tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings if we don't have a robust national weather radar network? What will happen to reservoir management when critical information on rainfall and runoff goes missing? What will happen when Hurricane Hunter aircraft are delayed or data from their instruments are not available to improve hurricane track and landfall forecasts?

NOAA research affects the lives of American taxpayers every day. It is vital to the work of the National Weather Service and the NOAA mission to predict the environment and share that information with businesses, communities, state and local government, and citizens."

 National Weather Service outreach to the public is being cutback too. The National Weather Service office in Sacramento said it would reduce overnight staffing, stop directly answering its publicly listed phone lines, post less often on social media and delay responses to media requests. 

That's fine I'm sure with the Trump administration, as transparence is anathema to them. 

The Trump administration is trying like hell to keep the effects of the cutbacks secret, as if it somehow won't become obvious to the public.

As evidence, here's a excerpt from the Washington Post:

"The Post spoke with 10 employees across the Weather Service and its parent agencies, NOAA and the Commerce Department, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Concerned with leaks to the media, the administration is installing monitoring software on NOAA employees' devices to track their communications, two current employees said."

 It seems the Trump administration has particular enmity toward the heroes in our American story. This administration is screwing over veterans, farmers, health care workers and aid organizations and National Weather Service meteorologists. 

And they are our heroes. 

On most days, the weather is routine and mundane, and we rely on these federal meteorologists just to let us know whether we should take an umbrella or our sunglasses to work with us tomorrow morning. 

Nice, but not critical.

But when the weather gets dangerous, these National Weather Service meteorologists save lives. I'd love to know how many over the years, but it's many, many thousands. How many people saved their own lives over the years because the fled to basements and storm shelters because the National Weather Service told them a tornado was coming?

How many of those people would have died had they not received the tornado warnings? Or not fled the coast because there was no hurricane warning saying you'd better get out or else?  . Or a flash flood was menacing their town?

I was eternally grateful to our meteorologists at the National Weather Service office here in South Burlington during our summer flood disasters in 2023 and 2024. 

The flood of 2023 killed two people in Vermont. The floods of 2024 did exactly the same. But how many people would have been killed or injured had the dire warnings the NWS released not happened? 

Neither the July. 10, 2023 nor the July 11, 2024 flood was a surprise because National Weather Service meteorologists bombarded us with warnings, detailed, accurate forecasts and great advice.

Surprises and inaccurate information are what kill people. Gutting the National Weather Service, and NOAA as a whole will greatly increase the likelihood that these inevitable, scary storms will take us by surprise.

Just more evidence that - false campaign rhetoric to the contrary - Donald Trump and his minions do NOT care about people like you and me. At all.  

NOAA Cutbacks From DOGE And Trump Are Continuing To Degrade Weather Forecast Accuracy. More Balloon Launches Scrubbed

DOGE staff cuts at NOAA means more weather balloon
launches have been cut. Those weather balloons are
critical for forecasting all sorts of weather. Including
severe storms and tornadoes. As we head into
tornado season, forecast accuracy will decline,
making these storms even more dangerous. 

 Your weather forecasts might get even less accurate than I thought with all the cutbacks at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA. 

Elon Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE has decimated staffing at NOAA, leading to tough decisions on how to manage weather forecasts, and more importantly, warning the public when dangerous weather looms. 

Up to 1,000 NOAA employees have been let go. 

The latest issues is that more National Weather Service offices are canceling weather balloon launches due to staff shortages.  

That will lead to less reliable weather forecasts, and quite likely unpleasant and deadly storm surprises starting in the near future. 

THE LATEST CUTS

Per the Associated Press:

"The normally twice-daily launches of weather balloons in about 100 locations provide information that forecasters and computer models use to figure out what the weather will be and how dangerous it can get, so cutting back is a mistake, said eight different scientists, meteorologists and former top officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration -  the weather service's parent agency."

Believe me, it's not just eight scientists. That's just the ones the AP quoted for their article. There's universal derision and frustration with the NOAA cutbacks.  It will cost lives.

Not that Trump and Elon Musk care. 

We previously reported cutbacks on weather balloon launches from Kotzebue, Alaska; Albany, New York and Gray, Maine. 

Now, we learn balloon launches will be eliminated at Omaha, Nebraska and Rapid City, South Dakota. Twice daily launches will be reduced to once daily at Aberdeen, South Dakota, Grand Junction, Colorado, Green Bay, Wisconsin, Gaylord, Michigan, North Platte, Nebraska and Riverton, Wyoming. 

On top of all the launch cancelations due to staffing shortages,  some balloon launches are not happening because of a helium shortage. Also, there's sometimes technical issues that prevent balloon launches.

WHY THIS MATTERS

Taken together, that leaves big holes and blank spots in the data that goes into comprehensive weather forecasts. 

Many of the newly ended ballon launches are in the northern United States, where the jet stream is most commonly positioned in the spring and early summer.  The jet stream controls weather systems, so you really want to examine that part of the atmosphere for signs of storms. 

That lack of weather balloons will hinder that effort. 

We are now at the beginning of the peak severe storm and tornado season in the United States. Those balloon launches offer critical insights into what is happening on the atmosphere, helping meteorologists predict when severe weather - including tornadoes - might hit and how bad they'll get. 

Since there will now be a big data hole from those canceled balloon launches in the middle of the nation, the eastern United States in particular might have poorer weather forecasts. That's because the weather generally flows west to east. 

"For those of us east of the Rocky Mountains, this is probably the worst time of year," said (University of Oklahoma environmental professor Renee)  McPherson,'  'It's the time of year that we have some of our largest tornado outbreaks, especially as we move into April and May."

"This frankly is just dangerous," McPherson told the AP.

We had an incredibly severe storm outbreak in mid-March that claimed 42 lives. However, lives were saved because the storm was anticipated well in advance. That gave people, including emergency managers, time to prepare. When tornadoes started touching down, warnings went out so that people could seek shelter. That surely saved lives. 

That's the state of affairs with most severe weather outbreaks. 

With the balloon launch cancelations, we'll still get a heads up from the National Weather Service about approaching dangerous weather. But accuracy levels on the location of the bad weather and its intensity could well wane.

Additionally, when severe storms and tornadoes actually develop, short staffed National Weather Service offices might miss the signs of an impending tornado, and thus not issue any warnings until its too late.

If a tornado is approaching,  you want everybody to know about it. The best way to get that word out is through a National Weather Service tornado warning. 

These balloon launch problems will also probably interfere with hurricane forecasts, and predictions for wildfire weather conditions. 

Less important but still worth noting is that your day to day forecasts for routine weather will likely degrade, too.  The joke is that meteorologists are always wrong, but that's not at all backed up by the facts. 

The forecast for today actually has about a 97 percent chance of being accurate. A forecast for three days from now is about 90 percent. A forecast for a week from now has a 70 percent accuracy rate.

These excellent figures will worsen as the Trump administration hacks away at NOAA staffing and resources.  

Trump, Musk and the other oligarchs now seizing control of the United States are protecting from severe weather by their wealth and staff. As opposed us rubes who live in the real world and deal with real things. 

But the oligarchs don't care about us. The DOGE cuts aren't really about saving taxpayer money. It's all about lining pockets of said oligarchs to make them more rich and powerful.  No proof here, but I suspect the government "savings" will never go into most of our hands. 

After all, the DOGE cuts are designed to finance tax cuts for the rich, as the Republican led Congress is set to do.

Follow the money indeed! 

 

Meteorological Spring Began Saturday. Doesn't Feel Like It Now, But...

If NOAA's seasonal forecast is right, chance lean
toward a generally warm spring here in Vermont 

We did the February weather summary in Saturday's post, and now we can also take a look at Vermont's meteorological winter, and what spring might look like. 

Meteorological winter runs from December 1 through February 28- except of course in Leap Years, when it's February 29.

Meteorological spring goes from March 1 through May 31.  The seasons are divided this way mostly just to make it easier for climatologists to compare seasons. 

While each winter month in Vermont was wildly different from each other - for instance, January was super dry and December and February were a little on the wet side - the winter of 2024-25 worked out to be right around average, as measure in Burlington, anyway.

The average temperature for the three months was 23.8, which is just 0.2 degrees cooler than the average of the years 1990-2020.  

As I always do, I'll note that the 1990-2020 average is warmer than the 20th century average, because climate change had notably taken over by then.  Had the winter of 2024-25 actually then place in the mid-20th century, it would have been considered a warmer than average winter. 

Also at Burlington, precipitation from December 1, 2024 through February 28, 2025 amounted to 6.31 inches. That's a mere 0.09 inches below average - essentially normal.

The winter outlook for our region, released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last October 17 indicated chances skewed slightly toward a warm winter in Vermont, and there were equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. So they were pretty close. 

For what it's worth, the spring outlook has been released. Predictions lean toward a warm spring across the South and up the eastern seaboard, including here in Vermont. If this forecast works out the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies would have a cool spring. 

For us here in Vermont, NOAA has equal chances of it being wet or dry, with maybe a slight lean toward being on the wetter side. 

National Weather Service Burlington Had Amazingly Accurate Vermont Snow Forecast

Here's the forecast snow map issued by the 
National Weather Service office in South Burlington
Thursday morning...

 The final numbers are pretty much all in from Vermonts nice Thanksgiving snowfall, and it's time to assess the forecasters.  

Namely, the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

For this event, they get a very solid A, with bonus points for winning a tricky forecast. 

First map you see on this post is snowfall they were predicting as of early Thursday morning. The second map shows what actually happened.

As you can see, they're pretty much the same map. The National Weather Service nailed where the heaviest snow would fall, and where it would be lightest.

 They got exactly right the northward extent of the heaviest snow, and which parts of the state got pretty much nothing. 

The only thing "wrong" is in the areas that received the heaviest snowfall. The National Weather Service underestimated some of the highest totals in southern and eastern Vermont.  We seem to have a pattern of storms.

And this is the map showing actual snow totals from
Thursday. The two maps are practically the same.

Snowstorms when the temperature is close to the freezing point are notoriously hard to predict. Predicted temperatures on any given day are very often a couple degrees off from what actually happens. 

If you forecast rain and 50 degrees and it ends up being 53 degrees during the rainfall, people really aren't going to notice the difference. 

But if you think a spot is going to hover at 35 degrees with rain, and it ends up being 32 degrees with several inches of snow, that comes off as a real forecast bust.

So not only did the National Weather Service have to figure out where the heaviest precipitation would set up - which is a big trick in and of itself -  they had to determine how temperatures would behave at all the different elevations Vermont has.

Kudos to NWS Burlington. They've gotten the winter forecasting season off to a rousing start.

Thursday Evening Hurricane Milton Updates: Death Toll Rises, Clean Up To Take A Long Time

The yellow house was toppled off its stilts by
Hurricane Milton. In the foreground are the front
steps of a house swept away by Hurricane 
Helene a couple weeks ago.

 Hurricane Milton is gone, but certainly not forgotten. 

The death toll had reached 11 by late this afternoon.  

That could well go higher, but the good news is there are not a lot of reports of people being unaccounted for. So for the potential for another tragedy on the scale of recent Hurricane Helene seems remote. 

There were at least a couple impressive rescues. Officers found a 14 year old boy floating in floodwaters on a piece of fencing in Hillsborough County and rescued him, the Associated Press said. 

A fishing boat broke down in the Gulf of Mexico as the hurricane approached and a Coast Guard helicopter found the man from the fishing boat floating on an ice chest and rescued him.  

That doesn't mean there's lots of trouble.  As of this afternoon, three million homes and businesses remained without power. Some places might not get electricity again for weeks. 

STORM SURGE BAD, NOT WORST

Still, the worst case scenario was averted because Hurricane Milton came ashore south of Tampa.  Had it come in a little north of Tampa, the storm surge would have been drawn up into Tampa Bay, with devastating results.

Instead, being north of the storm center, Tampa experienced east and northeast winds, which actually pulled water out of the bay. So no real storm surge there. Actually it was an anti-surge, as water levels in Tampa Bay actually fell to two to four feet below normal, thanks to those intense east winds. 

The storm surge did strike communities further south. As the Washington Post reports, the storm surge in Naples and Fort Myers was five to six feet. Not as bad as some forecasts, but still terrible. 

The surge in Fort Myers was the second highest on record. Only the epic surge in Hurricane Ian back in 2022 was worse. With Hurricane Helene just a couple weeks ago the top three storm surges in Fort Myers have all happened since 2022.

It doesn't help that the "normal" sea level around Fort Myers has risen by six inches since 1990, thanks in part to climate change. 

There aren't a lot of tidal gauges between Fort Myers and Tampa, in cities like Bradenton, Sarasota and Venice.  Those areas probably had a higher storm surge than Fort Myers, and meteorologists will investigate how high the water got there. 

The best guess is Venice and Sarasota suffered through an eight to ten foot storm surge. 

It's amazing that a difference of probably ten miles made such a difference in the outcome with this storm. 

FORECAST ACCURACY, WHAT'S NEXT

Just as amazing is the forecast accuracy. Forecasts the National Hurricane Center made five days ago on where Hurricane Milton would make landfall were only a dozen or so miles off from where it actually landed.

That's an incredibly accurate forecast for a hurricane that far in advance. Hurricanes paths are notoriously hard to predict.  Most hurricanes land 100 or more miles away from what forecasts indicate five days ahead of time

There's really no town in Florida that was completely flattened by Hurricane Milton or nearly so. But between storm surges, flooding, wind damage and tornadoes, the widespread destruction in Florida from  the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic shores, from north of Tampa and Orlando south almost to the Keys, the damage has to be in the billions of dollars. 

Again. 

No wonder the insurance industry is in such a mess these days. 

I'm not getting into climate change in this post in regards to hurricanes Helene and Milton, but I'll address it in a future post. 

 Also, note that hurricane season isn't over. That doesn't officially end until November 30. And Florida has been hit by hurricanes into November. Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Vero Beach as a Category 1 on November 10, 2022. And Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle on November 21, 1985 as a Category 2 storm. 

For now, there's no immediate threats for any new hurricanes. Milton is no longer a hurricane and was dissipating northeast of the Bahamas this evening. 

There are signs of renewed tropical activity in late October or early November. But that prospect is uncertain, and even if something happens, we obviously don't know where it would happen or how big it would get. 

Weekend Tornado Outbreak Was Much Bigger Than Usual; Death Toll Fortunately Was Not

The big tornado outbreak in the Plains this past weekend is over, but it was such an impressively  large outbreak - and in some respects a strange one - that it needs one more look-see.   

Red and orange shaded areas of this map are where
meteorologists ahead of time said tornadoes were
most likely this past Saturday. Red dots are where
tornadoes actually touched down Other dots are
damaging wind and and hail reports. 

The weekend death toll of 5 is undoubtedly tragic, but is incredibly low considering how powerful may of the tornadoes are and how many of them hit populated areas. 

It was a testament to the great warning system we have for such storms in the United States. In this case, that system worked quite well, despite the number of strong to intense tornadoes associated with this outbreak. 

According to ustornadoes.com, about 4  percent of all tornadoes are EF3, with winds of 136 to 165 mph.  Only 1 percent of tornadoes are EF4. Those have winds of 166 to 200 mph.

  A tiny number 0.1 percent of all tornados are the ultimate monster EF5s, with scouring winds of more than 200 mph. 

No fewer than eight tornadoes in the outbreak were EF3s. One was an EF4, where it trashed a huge Dollar Tree distribution center and tossed cars and trucks into the air along Interstate 35, killing one person.

 It was the first time in about 13 months that an EF4 was reported in the United States, the third longest period of time since 1871 between such violent twisters. 

This tornado count might go up as the storm damage is assessed. 

As of this morning, there were 173 tornado reports from Friday and Saturday. As is the usual case, only a small percentage were EF3s, but this is an impressive outbreak. 

WARNINGS WORK

After many tornado outbreaks, I hear witnesses say "there was no warning," or "it came out of nowhere" despite the fact there were warnings.  Those warnings didn't get through for whatever reason. Disaster experts are alway trying to figure out the best way to convey warnings so people actually receive them, and act on them.

Whatever everybody did over the weekend worked.

"I definitely think the systems out here did a great job of plenty of forewarning. The sirens went off multiple times before the tornadoes touched ground. Our news station did a great job of covering where the weather was and where the weather was going. Our phone alert systems were all going off," Bryanna Kneeland told Fox Weather, describing her experiences in hard-hit Elkhorn, Nebraska.  

It sounds like emergency managers considered the time of day in deciding how to take action, too.  

Kneeland went on: "....it hit around 3:45 in the afternoon when people would normally be coming home from work and children would normally be coming home from school. And the schools were all in lockdown. They did not let the students leave the building. A lot of workplaces were in lockdown. They would not let people leave."

It's much safer to be in a substantial building than in cars, trucks or buses on the streets during a tornado, so these lockdowns were smart. 

Kneeland was at work and her employer ordered her to stay put during the tornado emergency. Her husband was at home and their house was destroyed in the tornado. But he had received the warnings and was in the basement when the tornado hit. He was unharmed. 

 Elkhorn residents had 34 minutes warning that the tornado was headed their way, which is a fantastic lead time for tornado weather. 

The National Weather Service also put a bug in the ears of Oklahoma residents six days before the outbreak that tornadoes were likely. That got people in the right frame of mind to think about what they would do if they received a tornado warning. This long range forecast probably inspired people to have a plan. 

Forecasts in the day or two before the tornadoes began were super accurate. The tornadoes hit almost exclusively where meteorologists had said they would occur in the two or three days leading up to the tornadoes. 

Tornado deaths are more common at night, when people are not paying as much attention to warnings and you can't readily see twisters coming.  Four of the five tornado deaths were in Oklahoma, where the strongest tornadoes hit after dark. 

This, by the way, isn't climate change at work.  There have always been tornado outbreaks like this.  Climate change has tended to encourage tornadoes to form further east in the United States than they use to.

However, this outbreak focused mostly on the "traditional" tornado alley in the southern and central Plains. 

IT'S NOT OVER

Tornado watches were up late this afternoon in the same parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas that dealt with the destructive storms Friday and Saturday. A few more tornadoes could strike Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow.

The overall weather pattern for the next few days is favorable for these severe storms over the next several days. It is, after all, the peak of tornado season. 

As awful as last weekend was, we could have more deaths and more destruction in the  coming weeks.

 

Sunday's Vermont Post-Mortem: Overall Forecast Was Accurate. But A Bit Of An Over-Performer

Snowfall forecast issued Saturday afternoon, more than
eight hours before the snowstorm began. 

I know all eyes are on the very nasty storm due here in Vermont tonight, but I also like to assess how outfits like the National Weather Service did in forecasting the last storm. 

As we drew closer and closer to the storm, the predicted snowfall totals kept rising as well. 

By the time we got to the night before the storm, it looks like forecasters had a great handle on where the most snow would fall. The only inaccuracy worth noting is that some areas got more snow than forecast.

The first map on this page is what the National Weather Service was forecasting on the afternoon of January 6. This is a good eight hours or more before the storm arrived.

As you can see, the southeastern half of Vermont was due for the most snow, while the far north would get the least. Also note the narrow zone of lighter expected snowfall going along extreme western Vermont near the border with New York. 

Actual snowfall on Sunday. It over-performed in 
several parts of Vermont, especially in 
and near Orange County in eastern Vermont. 

The second map on this page shows what actually happened with the storm.  

The biggest surprise was the heavier than expected snow in northeastern Vermont. 

Instead of the Northeast Kingdom missing out on the snow, the area of lighter snow ended up getting displaced eastward into northern New Hampshire. 

Orange County, Vermont, south of St. Johnsbury, was the unexpected winner with this storm. 

The forecast or that area called for six, seven or eight inches of snow, generally speaking. Instead, most of that county got over a foot. There was a report of 22 inches from Groton.  

The forecasted zone of lighter snow in far western Vermont materialized. But even so, northwestern Vermont got a little more snow than forecast. 

Bottom line, the storm was more or less an over-performer.  I'd give forecast accuracy a grade of B.

That's actually very good, as Vermont snowstorms are notoriously hard to forecast. Usually, even the best meteorologists don't usually do as well as they did with Sunday's storm. 

Google's AI Weather Forecasting Model Might Improve Forecasts

Old fart that I am, I tend toward skepticism with AI, or to spell it out, Artificial Intelligence.

Google's GraphCast AI weather forecasting model
performs better than current weather models,
according to studies. 

I know that's where we're going and there's certain benefits to the technology, but don't get me started on the downsides. 

However, if I must focus on the positive,  Google has developed some AI technology consisting of a weather forecasting model that experts say could vastly improve predictions. 

For years now,  it seems like every time there's a storm, you hear about the American model and the European model disagreeing on the track and intensity of expected bad weather. Both are computer models of course, with the European model arguably the better of the two.

According to studies, the AI weather forecasting model from Google is a big improvement over these old school models. I guess all roads lead to Google these days. 

According to the Washington Post: 

"Google DeepMind's AI model, named "GraphCast," was trained on nearly 40 years of historical data and can make a 10-day forecast at six-hour intervals for locations spread around the globe in less than a minute on a computer the size of a small box. 

It takes a traditional model an hour or more on a supercomputer the size of a school bus to accomplish the same feat. GraphCast as more accurate than the European model on more than 90 percent of the weather variables evaluated."

GraphCast is actually one of several AI weather forecasting models under development. Government agencies world wide are looking into AI models because they are fast, efficient and can save money. 

As the Washington Post explains, current models like the American and European make forecasts based on really complex mathematical equations that would make anybody's head spin. These models are expensive because they require tons and TONS of computing power.

The AI models work differently. They suck up pretty much all the historical weather data available, then generate forecasts by looking at current conditions and figuring out what will happen next based on that historical data.

In a sense, AI weather forecasting models are old school.  In addition to relying on computer models, many human meteorologists often compare historical weather events to what's going on now to help them predict what the weather will be like tomorrow. 

One question about AI and weather forecasting is its ability to forecast extreme events.  There are not many super wild weather events from the past from which AI can "learn" about and then project into the future.  

This is especially true in our age of climate change, considering that we're seeing more and more record storms, record temperatures and weird storm behavior. 

However, GraphCast performed well in these event. Says the Washington Post: 

"GraphCast reduced cyclone forecast track errors by around 10 to 15 miles at lead time of two to four days, improved forecasts of water vapor associated with atmospheric rivers by 10 to 25 percent, and provided more precise forecasts of extreme heat and cold five to 10 days ahead of time."

However, questions remain as to whether GraphCast and other AI models can accurately forecast small scale weather trouble, like severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and localized flash floods. We also don't know how well AI does with larger storms that produce heavy precipitation in one area, but light rain or snowfall just miles away. 

That's particularly important here in Vermont. The most dangerous weather in the Green Mountain State include flash floods roaring out of the mountains;  downslope winds during winter storms that can be destructive in one town and no big deal the next; and nor'easters that can dump a couple feet of snow in say, Ludlow, but just a few inches up the road in Rutland.  

The Washington Post also cautions that AI isn't going to replace traditional computer models, or human meteorologists for that matter. At least not right away. Traditional models offer the initial conditions that AI uses to project the future. Also, the old computer models are still necessary to "teach" AI how to interpret historical weather. 

Also, it'll take real-life meteorologists to transmit what AI is telling us what will happen into the Plain English we need to know whether to take an umbrella with us tomorrow.  

 Some of the headlines are already overblown on the idea of AI "replacing" meteorologists. The headline about GraphCast Tuesday in Gizmodo was "Google's New AI Weatherman Will Leave Forecasters In The Dust."

Read the actual Gizmodo article and you discover, not quite. As that article states, "The study authors say their work is meant to work alongside the standard systems meteorologists rely on."

So AI isn't going to chase away your favorite meteorologists like Al Roker, Jim Cantore, Ginger Zee or local Vermont favorites like Gary Sadowski, Tyler Jankowski or Mark Breen.   

If it all works out, AI will be another tool these meteorologists use to give us their most accurate forecasts.  I'd hate to see our forecasts just coming from some sterile machine.  I need the human touch when I'm being told how much snow I'm going to have to shovel from my driveway. 

I just hope the bean counters at major media outlets don't think they can fully replace humans. Because they can't. 

Grading The Forecast: Remarkably Accurate, But Vermont Storm Over-Performed

The National Weather Service in South Burlington issues
this snowfall forecast early Wednesday morning, two days
before our recent storm started Note the heaviest amounts
in the southern Green Mountains and parts of the Adirondacks, 
with lighter totals in the Champlain Valley and Northeast
Kingdom. Click on the map to make it 
bigger and easier to see.

 The big storm we just had was incredibly tricky to forecast, but I have to hand it to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington and other local meteorologists. 
 

Their forecasts turned out to be pretty darn accurate.

The meteorologists pinned down pretty much exactly where the heaviest and lightest accumulations would be. 

 The only thing that was off is that some areas received more snow than forecast. The overall predictions on amounts were great, but on the high side of what the meteorologists predicted.

The first map on this page is what the National Weather Service office in South Burlington was predicted early Wednesday morning, two days before the storm.

At that point, a lot could have gone wrong. Some computer models were taking the storm out to sea.  There were questions about temperatures, and whether an area of moderate to heavy-ish snow would set up toward the end of the storm over northern Vermont. 

Actual accumulations with the storm. The distribution of
where the heaviest and lightest amounts would fall 
was spot on, though some of the totals were 
greater than forecast. Click on this map, too
to make it easier to see and bigger.

As the event got closer, forecasters gradually got a little more confident in the expected makeup of the storm. 

The distribution of where the heaviest snow would come down stayed pretty much the same on forecast maps, but they increased the amount of snow that would fall. 

The second map on this page is ground truth. The National Weather Service on Saturday compiled a map showing areawide accumulations, based upon dozens of reports they received. 

The "results map" is strikingly similar to the forecast maps. The only difference, as noted, is some of the actual amounts were higher than forecast. 

This was some great forecasting on what was an especially challenging storm to predict. Lets hope their expertise continues like this all winter. 

Helium, Gas Shortage Worsens For Weather Balloon Launches, Could Make Forecasts More Iffy

A helium shortage has curtailed some weather balloon 
launches, raising questions about whether this
will affect forecast quality in some situations.

 A helium shortage has worsened - at least for now - the ability of some local weather offices to launch critical atmosphere-monitoring balloons.  

This party-pooper development not only threatens some balloon-festooned celebrations, but it could mess up your weather forecast, at least a little.  

I first brought this up in March 2 post, when at least one National Weather Service office was curtailing weather balloon launches because of the shortage. 

These weather balloon launches are important because they carry a box of instruments called a radiosonde. That device collects data that is ingested into computer forecasts models to predict pretty much all kinds of weather. 

True, weather balloons seem anachronistic in this age of weather satellites and whiz-bang technology. But they do add to the boatloads of data needed to make accurate forecasts. 

The National Weather Service says the limited launches won't affect the quality of weather forecasts, but other meteorologists aren't so sure.  The Washington Post checked in with a number of meteorologists who questioned that assertion by the National Weather Service.  

 Weather balloon launches seem anachronistic with all the satellites and technology we have to monitor the weather. 

As the Washington Post reports: 

"Weather balloons are especially useful in severe weather or wintry precipitation environments because the data they collect can offer detailed insight about temperature profiles with altitude that can't be collected via radar, satellite or a ground-based observation network." 

Severe thunderstorms and winter storms are especially tricky to forecast, so the balloons are a great added tool to accurately predict those events. 

There's two bright sides to this problem that make it less bad than it could be. 

A minority of the 101 sites in the United States and the Caribbean that launch weather balloons use helium. The rest use hydrogen. 

However, you can't use hydrogen in crowded areas with lots of people, basically anywhere near a lot of occupied buildings. Think Hindenburg. Hydrogen very easily goes BOOM. The Hindenburg airship was full of hydrogen and that sure didn't end well. Which means you don't want to risk a calamity with hydrogen when a lot of people are wandering around close by. 

Another bright side is the helium shortage might ease within the next few weeks. That would make limited balloon launches a temporary issue.  The Washington Post said several sites were able to sort out some of the problematic gas deliveries, but it will take time until actual gas deliveries resume. 

Overall, then, the Great Helium Crisis of 2022 means a few of your trickier weather forecasts might be a little less accurate than they otherwise would be. Most of the time, your National Weather Service forecast will be quite accurate.  It almost certainly won't rain on your parade tomorrow if the NWS is calling for clear skies. 

Still, the more accurate all the forecasts are the better. Here's to hoping the helium shortage eases soon! 

 

Wild Snow Squalls Sweep Through Vermont Sunday

Intense snow squall slamming into Route 36 (Fairfield Hill
Road) in St. Albans this afternoon. 

 Well, that was intense. 

As of late afternoon, the entire northern two thirds of Vermont had been hit by an intense line of snow squalls, and as of this writing at around 5 p.m.  the squall line was remaining just as intense as it plunged into southern Vermont. 

My brother-in-law just sent me a photo of super heavy snow in West Rutland, Vermont as of 5 p.m. 

This was one of the most powerful and widespread line of snow squalls I've seen in years in Vermont. The only snow squall I've seen in recent years this wild was a more localized one that went through St. Albans, Vermont way out of season last April 22.

Today's snow squalls were quite brief in any one location and only left less than an inch of snow. But they demonstrated the utility of the National Weather Service's decision to issue snow squall warnings when such weather threatens.  These things were very dangerous if you were out on the roads. 

This was the second time in eight days NWS Burlington was forced to issue snow squall warnings. Similar squalls hit on February 19.

Kudos to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington with their predictions for this. The meteorologists there picked up on this late last week, and at that point began to include the possibility in their forecasts.

By this morning, the South Burlington NWS office had put out a special weather statement saying snow squalls were likely this afternoon.  Their forecasts this morning were exactly spot on for the intensity, timing and location of today's snow squalls. 

Today's snow squalls were not accompanied by phone alerts, like on February 19. As VTDigger explains, the National Weather Service issues targeted warnings, but ran into some technological hiccups. So Vermont Emergency Management picked up the slack, which prompted those phone alerts.

Today, it looks like the National Weather Service didn't encounter any technological problems, so they relied on their tried and true alert system when they issues snow squall warnings today. Your phone thusly didn't buzz for the warnings unless you'd already set it up to do so.

The warnings were certainly warranted this afternoon. The line of storms resembled solid walls of snow as they approached, and created instant whiteouts.  I haven't yet heard of any major crashes due to these snow squalls, but of course it takes time for reports to come out. 

That vertical feature you see in the clouds is a wall of 
snow from an intense snow squall rolling into 
St. Albans, Vermont Sunday afternoon.

 

Social media in Vermont lit up with images of zero visibility, strong gusty winds and swirling snow.  For what it's worth, you can see my YouTube video of how things went in St. Albans, Vermont today. 

The squall was fascinating as it approached. It came so fast that on video it looked like time lapse, but it was not. They just moved quickly.

So quickly that hardly any snow accumulated. The squall was in and out of St. Albans within 10 minutes. It was so windy it was impossible to measure the accumulation, but it was certainly a half inch or less.  That probably was typical statewide.

Except for southern and eastern Vermont, the snow squalls are done for the day, though there might be a few more snow showers to contend with.

Winds behind the line of snow squalls are gusty from the northwest, so blowing snow is a problem. I imagine this is especially an issue near Lake Champlain. From my perch on a hill in St. Albans, I could see massive amounts of blowing snow on the frozen lake late this afternoon. I'm sure there are local white outs on roads on the islands and near the Vermont shore of Lake Champlain.

Snow squalls like today's can happen anytime from late fall through winter and into spring,   but I have a feeling that today's squalls, and those eight days ago could perversely be a sign of spring. The sun's angle is rising toward the new season.  

The sun's warmth can add instability to the air, and that could have been a factor in the squalls' intensity.

It'll be a cold, wintry week. No big storms are in the offing.  An Alberta Clipper is forecast to give us a small amount of snow Tuesday, but no snow squalls are anticipated with that one. Another disturbance Thursday could give us some squalls, but that's very uncertain. 

Video:

Click on this hyperlink if you don't see the image of the video below. If you do see the image, click on the red arrow, then the YouTube logo for best viewing of the snow squall in St. Albans. 

I Don't Really Trust All Those Winter Weather Forecasts.

For what it's worth, here's a map depicting NOAA's forecast
for this coming winter. They're saying chances are we'll 
have a warm winter in the Northeast. However, take all
long range forecasts, including all those winter 
forecasts floating out there with a huge grain of salt

Frankly, I don't trust long range forecasts. There's all kinds of things that could go wrong, and do, when these forecasts hit.  

But the pundits and predictors soldier on anyway. As usual for this time of year,    winter season forecasts are accumulating faster than snow in a February nor'easter.  

While science goes into some of those forecasts, you still want to take them with a grain of salt.  Or maybe a whole bag of rock salt, I don't know. 

If you want me to tell you what this winter will be like, talk to me in March or April. By then, we'll know the results and we won't have to speculate.

Still, more than any other season it seems, people want to know in advance what winter will be like. 

I have noticed some patterns with this. For the past several years at least, NOAA/National Weather Service has predicted in advance that the following winters would be warm here in Vermont. 

Other publications are a little more prone to foreseeing gloom and doom.  

Here's my bias: NOAA isn't really all that interested in social media clicks, so they just go with what they think will happen. My conspiratorial mind thinks that other outlets want to see "engagement" so what better way to do that than tell people the end of the world is nigh. 

Let's start with NOAA's winter forecast: They're saying this winter in the Northeast will in general be warmer than average. I've had people tell me, "Oh, they say that every winter."  And those people are right. For each of the past seven winter forecasts NOAA has issued, they've said we were in for a warmer than average winter. 

Maybe it's global warming, but I have to say NOAA has been right most of the time. Of the past seven winters, in which NOAA told us we'd have a warm winter,  five have turned out warmer than average, one was quite a bit colder than average and one was right around normal.

So that's a pretty good track record.

For what it's worth, the Old Farmer's Almanac says New England will have a generally cold and dry winter this year. They're track record in recent winters has been mixed at best. 

Last winter was relatively warm and dry up here in Vermont. The Old Farmer's Almanac had predicted a wet and somewhat cold winter, so nah, not quite. 

They weren't 100% right in 2020 either, though they were correct that the coldest temperatures of the winter that year would be in mid January to early February.  But that is normally the coldest part of winter so the Old Farmer's Almanac's prediction wasn't exactly a revelation.

The Old Farmer's Almanac was pretty close to being right in 2019 and 2018, so I'll give them credit there. They were way off in 2017 and 2016 and half right in 2015. In 2015, they got the prediction of a cold New England right, but were wrong about a lack of snow. Boston had its snowiest winter in history. 

I don't mean totally diss the Old Farmer's Almanac. Every year the whole Almanac is an entertaining, folksy read, so I recommend buying it. Just don't necessarily believe their weather forecasts. 

The Weather Channel also has a mixed record in recent years of predicting winters. Again, for what it's worth, they're saying here in Vermont the variable winter weather should average out to something close to normal. We'll see. 

Of course, this is the same outfit that said the Southern Plains would have a warm February, when they ended up having arguably their worst cold snap on record.

The Weather Channel, at least for our neck of the woods, was way off in the winter of 2020 by predicting a cold winter. It was warm. They were pretty close to accurate for the winter of 2019, mostly wrong in 2018 and 2017, pretty accurate in 2016 and not too bad in 2015.

Just like all the other organizations, I'm not meaning to disrespect The Weather Channel, which is full of fine meteorologists and journalists. It's just that it's foolhardy to make winter weather forecasts.

Plenty of other meteorologists and publications have also made their annual winter weather predictions. I won't go into them, because you already got the idea here. 

Weather is always surprising. Especially so in Vermont during the winter. 

If I really MUST make a winter prediction for Vermont, I'll give you this. It will definitely snow. There will be cold days. The winter will be cold unless it's not, and it will be snowy unless it's not.

That's the best I can do, folks!