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| Destruction in western Alaska due to the severe storm that hit over the weekend. Forecasting for the storm appears to be substandard because of cutbacks in funding and staffing for the National Weather Service |
The horrible storm that caused at least one death and intense destruction in parts of western Alaska was forecasted inaccurately, due to DOGE cuts orchestrated by Elon Musk and the Trump administration, according to a CNN report.
The bulk of the storm struck an area south of where computer models suggested it would. The models were apparently off because of a lack of good data.
So-called Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE cutbacks meant some weather balloon launches were scrubbed for lack of funding.
"Weather balloon, which are typically launched twice a day, provide crucial information on wind speed and direction, air temperature, humidity, and other measurements. Balloon data is fed directly into sophisticated models used to predict the weather.
However, there were few, if any, balloons to take measurements of what the weather was doing as the remains of Typhoon Halong approached Alaska late last week."
Likely because of the lack of the balloon data, computer models had the storm striking the area around the Bering Strait, the point where Alaska and Russia are the closest to each other.
Instead, the storm hit struck coastal southwest Alaska, sending deadly storm surges into communities like Kwigillingok and Kipnuk and other remote towns. Houses floated away, some with people inside. Rescuers were able to retrieve at least two dozen people. However, one person is confirmed dead and two are missing.
National Weather Service forecasts in Alaska did issue many warnings for the area that was hit hardest boy the storm, but they did so without the help of accurate model projects made days in advance.
That might have meant that warnings that should have gone out sooner didn't.
The Alaska Beacon compared this storm with another ex-typhoon named Merbok in 2022.
"Unlike Merkok, which was very well forecast by the global models, this one's final track and intensity weren't clear until the storm was within 36 hours of crossing into Alaska's waters. That's too late for evacuations in many places."
The area hit by the storm is remote, so it's not easy to deal with an extreme storm. It's not like the Lower 48, where people can evacuate to a nearby school, municipal building or hotel when severe weather looms. In Alaska, you need more time to prepare.
The Alaska Beacon also tells us: "There have not been any upper air weather balloon observations at Saint Paul Island in the Bering Sea since late August or at Kotzebue since February. Bethel and Cold Bay are limited to one per day instead of two. At Nome, there were no weather balloons for two full days as the storm."
Meteorologists are still trying to assess to what extent the lack of balloon launches had on forecast accuracy.
"'Not having balloons didn't help,' the forecast, said a NOAA official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, although forecasts for Alaska also really on data from Asia as storms move from that region into North America."
All the major computer models had errors in the projected path of the storm, though it's hard to tease out how much of that error was due to the lack of balloon launches and their data, and how much might have been from other factors.
The aftermath of the storm is more difficult in remote areas like the west coast of Africa. There's no Home Depot right around the corner to buy replacement roofing, windows and flooring. For those whose houses were destroyed, there's nowhere to go.
Hundreds of people have been displaced. The Alaska Beacon says residents are face with an impossible decision: They could go to come place like Anchorage for the winter and return next summer to rebuild. But cities are expensive.
However, there's no housing in the remote coastline of Alaska to move into. All disasters are incredibly difficult for the victims. In Alaska, it's even more so.
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