Weekly Drought Report Gives Grim Vermont Update, But Tuesday Night Rain Helped A Little

This morning's weekly U.S. Drought Report shows
things got worse in the past week. Nearly two thirds
of Vermont is now in extreme drought (red shading)
with virtually the entire rest of the state in 
severe drought (orange shading)

As expected, the weekly U.S. Drought Report, issued this morning, shows the drought getting even worse in Vermont and surrounding areas compared to the previous week. 

Wall-to-wall daily sunshine and record October heat over the past week made everything worse.  The drought report includes data through Tuesday, so it doesn't factor in the rain we received Tuesday night and Wednesday. 

In this week's report, extreme drought covers nearly two-thirds of Vermont, up from about a quarter of the state a week earlier. 

Extreme drought covers all of Vermont north of Route 4 except the central and northern Champlain Valley, roughly from Charlotte north. 

The entire rest of the state is in severe drought except tiny slivers around Brattleboro and Alburgh, which were in moderate drought. 

Basically, 98 percent of Vermont was in severe or extreme drought with this new report. 

Unsurprisingly, the drought worsened in New Hampshire, too. Extreme drought covers more than half the Granite State, up from a third of the state last week. Drought expanded in Maine, too. Last week, 72 percent of Maine was in drought. This week, it's the whole state.  Drought deepened in New York, too. 

Back here in Vermont, the effects of the drought keep getting more noticeable.

Vermont has asked the federal government to declare much of the state an agricultural disaster area. 

Vermont Agriculture Secretary Anson Tebbetts asked for the designation earlier this month, citing dead pastures, reduced or nonexistent production of corn, hay and feed, dry wells, and vegetable and fruit crop losses.  

RAIN ARRIVES, BUT NOT ENOUGH

Rainfall Tuesday night and Wednesday was generous, 
with areas in yellow and orange getting an inch or
more of rain. But we need numerous storms like
that to make a serious dent in the drought. 

No single rainstorm can solve a drought. But the rain we got was a help. A tiny help, but a help.

 It was a good soaker. All of Vermont got over an inch of rain except southeast and northeast parts of the state got over an inch of rain. Even those "dry" areas saw more than three quarters of an inch. 

A few spots in western Vermont saw more than two inches. Addison County was the big winner New Haven had 2.64 inches of rain, and Starksboro had 2.41 inches. 

Sounds great, but at most, the rain made only the slightest dent in the drought. 

To demonstrate that one rainstorm won't solve our problems, the Vermont Department of Forests Parks and Recreation gives Vermont a high fire risk today. 

The rain we got just wetted the surface, and that dries out fast. Old logs and deep, underground dried out roots that can burn are just as susceptible to fire than before this week's rain. Because that rain wasn't able to penetrate all that far down. 

My guess is that next week's drought monitor will show no worsening, but also no improvement in the state's drought. 

Now, we need a series of storms just as soggy as this week's to start clawing our way out of the drought. 

Nothing like that is in the forecast, but at least there's a few chances of a little rain. 

The first shot at rain is still a highly uncertain one Sunday night into Monday. Yesterday, I noted that an expected nor'easter along the East Coast would get blocked from reaching us here in Vermont. 

That still seems to be largely true. But an increasing share of computer models suggest some rain will make it north into Vermont. The best chance of rain is in far southern Vermont. Some, but not all forecasts give places near Route 9 in Bennington and Windham counties a shot at getting as much as in inch of rain. 

It might not rain at all from the nor'easter in northern Vermont, but even those areas have a chance at a little precipitation. We'll have to wait for updated forecasts by around Saturday to get a better read on this. 

After the maybe/maybe not nor'easter, things don't look particularly wet for New England. But, instead of stretches of dry weather lasting two weeks or more, like we've seen since August, it looks like we'll have chances of mostly light rain once every few days. 

Such a weather pattern won't break the drought, but it gives hope that maybe it won't get much worse. No promises, as long range forecasts are unreliable. Weather patterns that cause drought tend to stick around, so we could be disappointed. 

As nice as one sunny day after another for weeks has been, we really could stand to see some traditional autumn gloom for a change.