New England/Vermont Drought Holds Firm, Only Slight Improvement After Last Week's Rains

Only slight improvement shown in this week's
 Drought Monitor for Vermont. The 
Green Mountains went from extreme 
drought down to a slightly less dire
severe drought. Everything else
in Vermont was unchanged from
last week's report. 

 The closely watched weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out on scheduled this morning, and it shows only modest improvement here in Vermont, despite some decent rains last week. 

It demonstrates how hard it is to emerge from a drought. It was a flash drought, one that developed over just a few weeks. Unfortunately, once you're in a drought, it's hard to get out of it. 

The area of Vermont under extreme drought diminished a little since last week. The area of extreme drought was removed from the Green Mountain range  Extreme drought continues in western Addison County and east of the Green Mountains and roughly north of Route 4. 

This makes sense, since last week's storm dumped its heaviest rain along the spine of the Green Mountains. 

About 47 percent of Vermont was in extreme drought this week, compared to 59 percent last week. So, not much improvement. 

Areas that were in severe drought in Vermont are unchanged from last week. Far northwestern Vermont, a small corner of southwest Vermont and a thin sliver along the Massachusetts border were in less intense moderate drought, exactly the same as last week.

In the rest of New England and Northeast, areas of extreme drought diminished a little in New Hampshire and some of the mountains of western Maine. However, drought intensified in southern and eastern Maine. 

Drought conditions in New York were basically  unchanged, improving a little near Lake Erie but worsening a bit in some of the central parts of the state. 

It's raining again in the Northeast, so maybe there will be another slight improvement next week. 

VERMONT RAIN  OUTLOOK

A little more drought relief coming today through
early Saturday with 0.5 to a little over an inch of
rain in the forecast for Vermont. 

We are going to get a decent rainfall in Vermont today through early Saturday, though in some parts of the state, predicted rainfall amounts are cut back a little. 

The heaviest rain looks like it will go to the west and east of Vermont. Parts of central and northwest New York, and eastern New England should get 1.5 inches of rain or a little more than that by Saturday morning. 

Vermont should do OK, with maybe a half inch in low elevations of southwest Vermont, about three quarters of an inch across the southeast, central and northern parts of the state. 

Northwest Vermont, often the winner lately with rainstorms, will probably do it again, with an expected rainfall of a little over an inch by Saturday. 

Here are the picky details of the forecast: 

he initial burst of rain this morning is moving directly north over New York. It's having a tough time moving east into Vermont.

It will gradually get wetter, west to east across the Green Mountain State today. The rain might kind of sputter out for a time late this afternoon and early evening. But then a good wave of steady rain should come in tonight.

For much of the state, it will be kind of a stormy night.  On top of the rain, a stiff east wind will blow across much of the area. That will be especially true along the western slopes of the Green Mountain, where winds could gust to 45 mph or so.

A few favored spots along the western slopes could maybe gust to 55 mph, but that won't be widespread. If the rain is on the heavy side, the wind will be a little lighter. Periods when the rain is much lighter along the western slopes might bring some stronger gusts. 

Not a horrific storm, but tonight's weather will show that we're now into the season where we can get those blustery late autumn storms 

The rain should continue into Friday, but it will turn showery by afternoon. The rain will mostly end in southeast Vermont. 

Friday will be another blustery day, especially in the afternoon, with the wind coming from the northwest instead of the east.  The rain might stop completely for awhile Friday morning as a tongue of dry air tries to  come in. But showers will fill back in, especially north and along the western slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains. 

For trick or treaters, this Halloween will be a polar opposite of last year. Halloween, 2024 brought record-shattering high temperatures, and those ghosts and monsters and goblins on the streets basically enjoyed a typical summer evening. 

Not this year. A gusty northwest wind will add to the chill amid temperatures in the 40s to around 50 at best Friday evening. The showers will be relatively light, but persistent, especially central and north. 

As the night goes on, snow that will have started at the summits Friday afternoon will go downhill in elevation, reaching as low as 1,500 feet by Saturday morning. There could be light accumulations above 2,000 feet, and maybe several inches at the summits.

Saturday will be a blustery, cold, cloudy November day, which is a hallmark of the month. There could be some valley light rain showers and mountain snow showers, but amounts will be light. 

Sunday will be calmer.

As we look ahead in hopes of more drought relief, I don't see much. It looks like the pattern heading into mid-November will feature frequent chances of light rain or mountain snow. I don't see any signs of more drenching super-soakers for now.