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| Forecast track and timing of Hurricane Melissa, which is about to decimate the island of Jamaica. |
Hurricane Melissa is following the worst case scenario, having blown up from a tropical storm to a powerful hurricane packing 140 mph in a matter of less than 18 hours.
Worse, the storm is still getting strong, still moving forward at a snails pace, and still locking in on Jamaica as a target.
Melissa is forecast to reach Category 5 intensity today, the strongest possible hurricane. It would be the third category 5 Atlantic hurricane this year, which is incredibly rare. Climate change doesn't seem to make hurricanes more frequent, but it does seem to make it more likely that some of them will reach intense Category 5 intensity.
Fortunately, the other two Cat 5's of 2025, Erin and Humberto, did not hit land.
Our luck has run out with Melissa.
As of this morning, Melissa was moving over water that is record hot, 88 or 89 degrees. This patch of water under Melissa is the warmest of anywhere in the Atlantic. The hotter the water, the more fuel for a hurricane, and the stronger it will become.
Whether it's still a category 5 or a "mere" category 4 when Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica, probably Tuesday morning, is besides the point. This is going to be a devastating, deadly blow to the island.
It's already been raining for weeks in Jamaica. The soil is saturated. There was flooding even before Melissa entered the picture.
Hurricanes always dump incredible amounts of rain. You virtually always have inland flooding once they come ashore. Most hurricanes come and go, with a forward speed of maybe 10 to 15 mph.
Melissa's forward speed was just 5 mph this morning. As a tropical storm and more recently a hurricane, it was just sitting over the Caribbean, dumping heavy rain on Haiti and Jamaica before it ever grew into the monster it is now. Melissa will only just begin to move faster over Jamaica, but it will be much too little, much too late.
More than three feet of rain is expected on at least parts of the island, guaranteeing horrific landslides and catastrophic flooding. Jamaica is mountainous, so it's especially prone to flash flooding and heavy rains. That was the problem in western North Carolina last year with Hurricane Helene. The water just cataclysmically rushed down those slopes. Same will happen in Jamaica.
The wind will tear things apart for sure, but the flooding will be much worse.
How do you run away from flash flooding and mudslides when the wind is gusting well past 100 mph and debris is flying through the air like giant box cutters, slicing through everything?
I'm just sick about this.
In the past, the United States would often swoop in with truly lifesaving aid when there's an extreme disaster like what is about to happen in Jamaica. But the Trump administration has turned its back on the rest of the world. So the suffering will be even worse due to the indifference of MAGA. We might send aid, but not the way we once did.
Hurricane Melissa won't directly hit Haiti, but its torrential rains are blasting that impoverished nation on Hispaniola. This will be a nightmare for them too. We already have reports of three people killed by Melissa in Haiti and one in neighboring Dominican Republic.
We need to include Cuba in this mix. Once Melissa is done with Jamaica, it will move on to eastern Cuba. The storm might be slightly weaker than it will have been in Jamaica, but it still will be a powerhouse, with extreme flooding and seriously damaging winds in Cuba by late Tuesday and early Wednesday.
From there, Melissa will head northeastward, blasting through the Bahamas with more destruction before heading out into the open Atlantic Ocean. It might threaten Bermuda toward Friday. Then it should finally die out in the cold North Atlantic next weekend.
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