Helium, Gas Shortage Worsens For Weather Balloon Launches, Could Make Forecasts More Iffy

A helium shortage has curtailed some weather balloon 
launches, raising questions about whether this
will affect forecast quality in some situations.

 A helium shortage has worsened - at least for now - the ability of some local weather offices to launch critical atmosphere-monitoring balloons.  

This party-pooper development not only threatens some balloon-festooned celebrations, but it could mess up your weather forecast, at least a little.  

I first brought this up in March 2 post, when at least one National Weather Service office was curtailing weather balloon launches because of the shortage. 

These weather balloon launches are important because they carry a box of instruments called a radiosonde. That device collects data that is ingested into computer forecasts models to predict pretty much all kinds of weather. 

True, weather balloons seem anachronistic in this age of weather satellites and whiz-bang technology. But they do add to the boatloads of data needed to make accurate forecasts. 

The National Weather Service says the limited launches won't affect the quality of weather forecasts, but other meteorologists aren't so sure.  The Washington Post checked in with a number of meteorologists who questioned that assertion by the National Weather Service.  

 Weather balloon launches seem anachronistic with all the satellites and technology we have to monitor the weather. 

As the Washington Post reports: 

"Weather balloons are especially useful in severe weather or wintry precipitation environments because the data they collect can offer detailed insight about temperature profiles with altitude that can't be collected via radar, satellite or a ground-based observation network." 

Severe thunderstorms and winter storms are especially tricky to forecast, so the balloons are a great added tool to accurately predict those events. 

There's two bright sides to this problem that make it less bad than it could be. 

A minority of the 101 sites in the United States and the Caribbean that launch weather balloons use helium. The rest use hydrogen. 

However, you can't use hydrogen in crowded areas with lots of people, basically anywhere near a lot of occupied buildings. Think Hindenburg. Hydrogen very easily goes BOOM. The Hindenburg airship was full of hydrogen and that sure didn't end well. Which means you don't want to risk a calamity with hydrogen when a lot of people are wandering around close by. 

Another bright side is the helium shortage might ease within the next few weeks. That would make limited balloon launches a temporary issue.  The Washington Post said several sites were able to sort out some of the problematic gas deliveries, but it will take time until actual gas deliveries resume. 

Overall, then, the Great Helium Crisis of 2022 means a few of your trickier weather forecasts might be a little less accurate than they otherwise would be. Most of the time, your National Weather Service forecast will be quite accurate.  It almost certainly won't rain on your parade tomorrow if the NWS is calling for clear skies. 

Still, the more accurate all the forecasts are the better. Here's to hoping the helium shortage eases soon!