Yes, Some Of Us, Anyway, Are In For A Snowstorm On Tuesday

The National Weather Snow Prediction map is back!
Current forecasts call for six or more inches of 
snow in high elevation (yellow and orange shading)
but much less in the valleys. This forecast will
surely change one way or another by Tuesday.

The chances that at least parts of Vermont will get a pretty healthy sized snowstorm on Tuesday are on the upswing.  Welcome to spring! 

Before you drown your sorrows or hug your daffodils goodbye, snowstorms are tricky to predict this time of year and everything has to fall into place exactly right to actually receive lots of accumulating snow. 

If this were a month or two earlier in the season, all of us would be looking at a decent six to 12 inch snowstorm.  But it's hard to get cold enough for that kind of snow in mid to late April.  

Temperatures need to be far below normal to even receive snow.  The high sun angle of April can filter through the thick clouds during the day to minimize snow accumulation.

Even if the snow does reach valley floors, it can largely be a "white rain" that mostly melts on impact 

With that said, the forces of winter seem to be lining up for us here. 

As usual the high elevations have the best chance of receiving a ton of snow.  There's still time for big changes in the forecast but as of now, it looks like elevations at or above 1,500 feet could easily receive six inches or more of wet snow on Tuesday. 

Valley floors are trickier. If precipitation comes down heavily, you can get some decent accumulations.  With this kind of late season storm, there's sometimes a "sweet spot," a relatively narrow zone west of the storm center that is colder than surrounding areas that can collect snow more easily. 

That all depends on the track of the storm, of course. Early indications are that the storm center will move far enough inland that areas east of the Green Mountains below 1,500 feet elevations might have a period of snow, but then go over to rain. 

The Champlain Valley might be closer to that cold "sweet zone" but the elevation is so low, thus warmer, that we'd get a mix of rain and wet snow - that "white rain" scenario.

At this point, the Green Mountains looks to get nailed by snow, unless trends in forecast keep pushing the storm further and further west.  The heavy, wet snow, accompanied by gusty winds with the storm, could create problems with power outages.  

A snowstorm around a year ago, April 21, 2021 in St. Albans,
Vermont Parts of Vermont might see another snowstorm
Tuesday with possible heavy accumulations 
in the higher elevations

By the way, expect changes to this forecast.  As I noted, it's a tricky one, so forecasters will need to make modifications, for sure. Some of us will get a lot less snow than currently forecast. A few places might receive a surprise dump. 

On the bright side if there is one, it won't get so cold during this storm to kill early season spring greenery, though you'll definitely want to bring sensitive plants indoors.

There will be a pretty good freeze tonight and early tomorrow morning, and temperatures will again dip to near or a little below freezing Tuesday and maybe Wednesday night, but we're not talking record cold or anything like that. 

If this snowstorm materializes, it will be the second year in a snowstorm has hit parts of Vermont after mid-April.  Last year's version was colder, and springtime was more advanced along that this year, so there was some damage to flowers and plants.  I don't think that will happen to any great extent this time.

Another bright side: We're not in North Dakota. They were just starting to recover from a three day blizzard that dumped two to three feet of snow on parts of that state. Today, another six to nine inches is falling there. They also had record low temperatures as low as a big fat zero degrees.

Wednesday is looking blustery and cold, but after that, it looks like we'll be entering a somewhat warmer and drier weather pattern for the last part of the month.