As Expected, Ever Shifting Snow Forecast Keeps Shifting. Still Gonna Snow, Though

The latest snow forecast map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington. The heaviest snow has
shifted west into New York State.

 Meteorologists have been making adjustments to the cold, snowy storm forecast for tomorrow, as expected.  

The way it looks now, while pretty much everybody will see snow out of this storm, the system's main fury will be over New York State.  Areas from Binghamton in southwestern New York up through the Adirondacks are under winter storm warnings for six to 10 inches of wet, heavy snow.

Still, the storm looks wintry enough to complicate your Tuesday morning commute in Vermont. 

The shift west in the forecast for the heaviest snow is because the center of the nor'easter causing this weather is looking more and more likely to take an inland track in New England, probably heading into New Hampshire or eastern Vermont during the day tomorrow. 

This kind of path in the middle of winter would lead to a snow changing to mixed precipitation kind of scenario. We had so many situations like that this past winter, so why not another one?

However, it's April, and areas that would have had freezing rain and sleet had this storm in February will get some plain rain instead. Ice is quite unlikely except on the mountain summits, where there might be a little freezing rain. 

Here's how the National Weather Service in South Burlington currently think this will play out: Rain will move in tonight but quickly turn to snow as temperatures drop.  Even the valleys will receive a good thump of snow in the pre-dawn hours and possibly lasting into Tuesday morning drive time.

Since it will be snowing so hard, at least briefly, and the sun won't really be up and strong yet to filter through the clouds, the roads could end up being pretty dicey.  At this point, it looks as if valleys will only receive one to two inches of snow. 

But look out for surprises: Temperatures will be so marginal that there's a chance we could either escape with almost nothing in the valleys, or get stunned by several inches of snow. The National Weather Service had percent chances of various amounts of snow falling throughout the region. For instance, there's a 75 percent chance Burlington will receive at least 0.1 inches of snow; a 51 percent chance of receiving at least once inch and a 16 percent chance of seeing four inches or more. 

Elevations at and above 1,500 feet or so can expect two to six inches, and summits would receive at least half of foot, according to the National Weather Service.  

Maybe a little hard to see in this photo, but if you look
closely, snow flurries sift down on South Burlington, Vermont
on a cold and blustery Easter Sunday.  More snow is
certainly in the forecast for tomorrow. 

As the storm gets pulled inland, that snow will change to rain with the slightly warmer air coming in.  The precipitation will turn lighter in Vermont, too. Often, when a storm like this goes almost right overhead, a punch of drier air gets entrained into the center of the system, which makes things taper off.

So expect a dreary Tuesday afternoon of a very cold, light rain or drizzle, along with some raw winds. Normal high temperatures are in the mid to upper 50s this time of year, and most of us will be lucky to see the low 40s.

This storm is also going to pack some gusty east winds, especially in the mountains and western slopes of the Green Mountains. The wind, combined with the heavy, wet snow, could lead to some trouble with fallen branches, trees and power lines.

Note that the ground is still awfully muddy, so that would make it easier for snow and wind to uproot trees or push them over. 

Meanwhile, to our west, the snow will continue in the Adirondacks and in central New York, as those areas now look like they will be in the "sweet spot" for both the coldest temperatures and heaviest precipitation. 

Wednesday looks blustery and rather cold for this time of year as the storm departs to the north. It will swing some gusty northwest winds at us and keep temperatures down in the 40s.

After that, it's back to our regularly scheduled spring, with highs popping back up into the 50s. That's near to just a wee bit cooler than normal for this time of year.