Another Round Of Plains/Rockies Wildfires, Blizzards, Storms

Huge area of the Southwest, in red and especially
pink are at high risk of uncontrollable wildfires todaiy.

While we in Vermont haven't exactly had the nicest spring weather lately, at least it hasn't been as dangerous as it's been in much of the Plains and parts of the Rockies. 

Each round of bad weather seems to get worse and worse, and we have another nasty situation out there today. 

The biggest threat is wildfires. This time, the prime zone for those fires are a little further west that previous iterations.  When NOAA's Storm Prediction Center puts out an "extremely critical fire" alert you know it's serious.

Today's "extremely critical" zone is also much bigger than you typically see, encompassing large chunks of New Mexico and eastern Colorado.

This danger zone includes Denver and Boulder.  People there are probably especially nervous, given how they're just beginning to recover from the fire storm that roared through Boulder suburbs in late December.

That wildfire was the worst in Colorado history, having destroyed around 600 homes. 

Already, large wildfires are burning near Flagstaff and Prescott, Arizona, forcing hundreds of people to evacuate. Other large fires are currently burning in New Mexico.

April is not normally a season for big fires, especially in Colorado. The Front Range area often has snow or cold rains this time of year as storms often develop there and head east, causing severe weather in the Midwest. 

Those storms are forming this year, but going further north than usual, leaving the southern Plains and Colorado and New Mexico parched.

Today, yet another storm is forming, again somewhat north of where they usually go. Temperatures in the fire zone are expected to get into the 80s and 90s, relative humidity will crash to the single digits, winds will gust past 60 mph over ground and vegetation that is at record levels of dryness.'

You see the problem.

Additionally, the storm is setting up a dry line in the central and southern Plains.  As we noted recently, a dry line is pretty common in the spring. It's a sharp north/south boundary between very humid air to the east and hot, very dry air to the west.

Supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes often form along this dry line.  Today, that dry line will start out near the Colorado/Kansas border and push east. What are known as low precipitation, or LP supercells are expected to form.

LP supercells are incredibly dramatic looking, spinning thunderstorms that form striking clouds and sometimes tornadoes. These clouds are so visible because of the lack of rain with them. But LP supercells often spit out quite a few lightning bolts. With the lack of rain and the lightning hitting parched areas, the potential for fire starts is pretty damn big.

DAKOTA BLIZZARD AGAIN

North Dakota is also having an incredibly rough spring. One of the worst blizzards in the state's history struck on April 12-14, and another winter storm hit around April 17. Within that stretch, temperatures his record lows of between zero and 5 above.  

The Dickinson, North Dakota Police Department digging
out from an epic blizzard earlier this month. Another
blizzard is forecast to hit parts of that state this weekend.

Now, another blizzard is set to hit the western part of North Dakota over the weekend with another eight to 15 inches of windblown snow.  The eastern half of the state can expect some heavy rain before precipitation changes to snow. That could cause flooding as runoff from rain and melting snow overwhelms ditches. 

The Red River along the North Dakota/Minnesota border is swelling fast and at least moderate flooding is expected. This will have to be watched carefully.  April, 1997 had similar weather to this year. The Red River in 1997 rose to record levels devastating the city of Grand Forks, North Dakota.

SEVERE WEATHER

Those LP supercells I talked about earlier in this post are expected to become better organized as they move east. Possible tornadoes, destructive straight-line winds and ginormous hail are possible in a stripe from central South Dakota to the Texas panhandle today

Tomorrow, the severe threat moves a little east, involving a stripe that envelops most of Minnesota and extends all the way down to central Texas.

Overall, the severe weather threat today and tomorrow is pretty typical for this time of year. North Dakota often gets blizzards in the spring but this year is quire unusually bad.   The level of fire danger in the southwest is really off the charts for this time of year. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

As is usually the case, we in the Green Mountain State are bystanders to all of this. The weekend will be dry and cool, especially tonight and tomorrow. Everyone will have a frost and freeze tonight, and it'll only get up into the low 50s Saturday afternoon.

Sunday will be a bit warmer. We're still expecting a quick squirt of rather warm air Monday before things turn gloomy again later Monday through at least the middle of next week.