Another Week Starts, And And Even More Dangerous Weather Week For U.S.

Very large areas of the nation face nasty weather hazards
this week. Yellow and orange areas in this map especially
risk severe storms and tornados Wednesday. This is
an unusually big area to be on such an alert on one day.

 This is at least the fourth week in a row where we started out Monday morning looking at some big weather hazards across huge swaths of the United States.  

Rinse and repeat, yes. But this one looks like the worst week yet this spring. 

The tornado danger seems longer lasting and more widespread than previous weeks. The wildfire hazard in the Southwest and southern Plains is off the charts. And a potentially historic blizzard is bearing down on North Dakota. Plus much of the northwestern United States is facing wintry weather. 

Bottom line: You're going to see a lot of weather drama on the new this week.  Here in Vermont, we continue our charmed life.  At this point, it's looking like all this chaos will mostly avoid us. More on that a little further down in this post. 

On to the action:

Tornadoes/Severe Weather

The real bad stuff starts today, and forecasts indicate it will get worse tomorrow, and even worse than that on Wednesday.

Today is really just an appetizer, as the main storm causing the weather havoc is still just getting its act together.  Conditions do seem favorable for some tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds in and around Arkansas.  Everyone from northeast Texas to western Kentucky is under the gun for this, but Arkansas seems like the main target.

Tuesday, the threat of tornadoes and severe weather blossoms in a broad area from southern Minnesota all the way down to central and eastern Texas and Louisiana. 

This has the makings of textbook bout of severe weather. Dry lines are often a key ingredient in severe storms and tornadoes in the Plains, and we have that going on here. 

Yellow, orange and pink areas are under wildfire risk 
Tuesday. Again, this is an oddly big area to be facing
such a risk on one day. The pink "extremely critical
risk" is reserved only for the most dangerous
fire weather conditions.

Dry lines are a sharp boundary, usually running north to south. West of the dry line, desert air lurks with arid conditions and usually, bright sunshine. Immediately to the east of the dry line, it abruptly turns very humid.  

If conditions are right, rotating supercells and tornadoes often develop.  Especially if there's strong instability and changing wind direction with height. All those ingredients seem like they want to fall into place tomorrow in the central and southern Plains. 

However, a "cap" or layer of warm air in the atmosphere might squelch some of the developing thunderstorms. There's questions over just how many storms that are capable of producing tornadoes will form. 

Up into Iowa, conditions do seem more favorable for tornadoes, some of them strong, so that neck of the woods better watch out late tomorrow and tomorrow night. 

Wednesday, a huge area of the nation from the southern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, and from the central Plains to the Tennessee Valley are under the gun. 

It might be a little too early to hone in on which areas are most at risk, but NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is already noting the possibility of strong tornadoes.  Note the area at risk is a little further east than the previous two days. This area is more populated, so there's a greater risk of tornadoes hitting towns and cities. 

Wildfires

The Great Plains of the United States have been burning for weeks now, amid drought, high winds and dry air that keeps blowing in from the Desert Southwest and Mexico. 

Tomorrow might be the worst day yet. We're well into spring now, so it can get hot. Hotter weather just makes things more combustible.  Temperatures are expected to pop up into the 90s from western Kansas down into northern and central Texas.

This area will also see extremely low humidity levels and strong winds all day. 

Usually, the analysis from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center fire forecasting wing is usually sober and as dry as the air over West Texas.  So when you get the following wording, be very worried:

"...exceptionally volatile fire weather conditions. High confidence exists in several hours of extremely critical fire weather conditions developing."  

Basically this means any fires that develop will be uncontrollable and just roll right over ranches and into the small towns that dot the High Plains landscape in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and western Kansas. 

Blizzard

The main storm center that will unleash the tornadoes and the fires and all that will develop in eastern Colorado Tuesday and move toward Minnesota Wednesday. All the while it will be intensifying into a powerful low pressure system packing high winds, and sucking cold air on its back side down into places like Montana and North Dakota.  

Another big hazard area, this time for winter storm 
conditions. Pink area is level 5 alert in a five point scale
of how dangerous winter storms will be. Again, an oddly
huge area to be in that "pink zone"

This one will be a doozy. They are expecting one to two feet of snow with winds of 50 mph tomorrow and Wednesday.  Yes, North Dakota and Montana receive boatloads of winter. But this one is over the top, even for them. 

It's another case when, if you see meteorologists acting like their hair is on fire, take notice. 

Here's part of the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service office in Bismarck, North Dakota:

"If you have not yet prepared for this storm, NOW is the time. This has the potential to be an historic storm that could flirt with records in some area depending on the evolution. Areas most heavily impacted will likely see extreme disruption to daily life and life threatening conditions if stranded."

This storm could rival the extreme blizzard of April, 1997, which killed 100,000 head of cattle, 10 percent of the state's herd. Most of those cattle deaths were yearlings and calves, and similar dangers face cattle and farmers this go around.  

Making things worse for North Dakota cattle ranchers, temperatures in much of the state are forecast to remain below freezing from tomorrow through at least Sunday. Which means the snow won't really melt anytime soon, causing more cattle hardship. 

Vermont Impacts

Once again, as noted, it appears we will be getting off easy with this weather pattern. 

Today looks nice, with a sun, some high clouds this afternoon and temperatures rebounding nicely into the 50s. 

The first in a series of disturbances come through late tonight and the first half of tomorrow, with quite a few showers, but nothing extreme. Most of us will get about a quarter inch of rain, give or take. It'll be enough to keep the mud going out there, but at least it won't get worse. 

The sun will break through the clouds Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday will be OK as well.

The parent storm's cold front comes through Thursday. If we manage to truly get into the warm air ahead of the front, temperatures could bounce up to 70 degrees for the first time this spring. If it gets that warm, we might also see some thunderstorms. If we do get 'em, they're not looking severe at this point.

The front will be moving right along, so we won't have that many hours of rain. Translation: Flooding risks remain low, despite the rather soggy ground.