Soggy Ground, But Still A Real Fire Risk In Vermont Today, That's April For You

Despite all the rain we've had lately, fire
danger in Vermont is high to very high today.
Last year's dead weeds and foliage, low 
humidity, strong sun and gusty winds
are conspiring to raise the risk of brush fires.

It seems all we've been talking about is how soggy it's been underfoot all month here in Vermont.

Yesterday, we received another installment of rain, punctuated by thunder in a few places. Amounts weren't huge, with most places receiving a half inch of rain or less. But we're only halfway through April and we've had nearly as much rain as we should have the entire month. 

With all that wetness out there, here's a strange twist: There's a fire danger out there today, of all things. This happens easily in April.

The sopping ground will stay muddy, of course, it can't dry out that fast. But all that dead stuff from last fall is out there, you know, the brown grass, the fallen leaves, the dead, tall weeds. Today's weather will quickly dry that all out, sooner rather than later. 

An area of very dry air is moving in, so the humidity will crash rapidly this morning. The relative humidity should be under 30 percent this afternoon, which is super low for this neck of the woods.  Strong April sunshine will also dry things out very quickly as temperatures climb to the low 60s.

Then there's the wind. It was already picking up at dawn today and it's going to get quite gusty. It'll be a dry, strong southwest wind.   If any of that dry stuff out there gets a spark, that wind will set things off and spread a fire fast. 

Bottom line: Today is not the day to burn your brush pile. Your local fire warden probably isn't issuing burn permits today anyway. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates today's fire risk as high across Vermont.. They give an even worse "very high" fire danger risk today for the valleys of southwestern Vermont and the Connecticut River Valley. 

In northwestern New York, wind gusts could become strong enough to be damaging, with gusts to 60 mph in the St. Lawrence Valley.  Across Vermont, winds will gust to at least 35 mph this afternoon, with some gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range in northern Vermont. 

This fire danger thing won't last all that long.  We're back to the chilly, rainy weather tomorrow as another modest storm comes through. It'll probably drop another quarter inch or so of rain on us. In the mountains, it'll go over to snow again with light accumulations in most places that do get snow. 

That said, I noticed some of the computer models this morning dump a surprising amount of snow near summit level in the Green Mountains Saturday night. Like, six inches or more way up there. Most of us won't have to deal with that, though. 

Firefighters battle a brush/forest fire several years ago near
Bristol, Vermont. Just one dry, windy day can raise the
fire risk this time of year, before things green up. 

Sunday will be a lot like last Sunday, breezy, cloudy, cold with rain and snow showers around. 

More bad news:  I've really got my eyes out for this coming Tuesday. Right now, the forecast is for another bout of chilly, light rain. 

But, if a coastal storm gets its act together, it could form of pocket of even colder air over New England, along with heavier precipitation.  If that happens, we could be looking at a late season snowstorm for parts of the region including Vermont. 

I saw one computer model that gives Vermont a general three to six inches of snow Tuesday. But that was an outlier. Most of the other indications aren's so bullish for snow. For now, I'd say light rain and snow for Tuesday, depending upon elevation. It's still worth keeping tabs on this, though.  You never know.