First EF-5 Tornado Since 2013 Confirmed In North Dakota. It Happened In June

Screen grab from a video of the EF-5 tornado in
Enderlin, North Dakota. The tornado happened at
night, and when this image was taken, it was
illuminated by lightning. 

A tornado that struck near Grand Forks, North Dakota has received an EF-5 rating, the most powerful kind of tornado, and the first such twister to hit the U.S. since 2013, the National Weather Service said Monday.  

The tornado actually hit back on June 20 in Enderlin, North Dakota with estimated winds of 210 mph. It killed, three people, stayed on the ground for a little more than 12 miles and was about a mile wide at one point. 

The tornado derailed a freight train, tipped over several fully loaded grain hopper cars and lofted tanker cars, including one empty tanker care that was tossed about 475.7 feet, according to the National Weather Service office in Grand Forks, North Dakota. 

National Weather Service meteorologists usually visit the damage path of a tornado within a day or so of it occurring to start assessing the strength of the storm. It often takes days or weeks of analysis to come up with a rating for a tornado.  This one took longer to analyze because the damage it caused on the train was unusual, the Associated Press reported. 

The tornado also left trees in a river valley with only stubs of large branches or trunks remaining. The bark was torn off the remains of the trees. Other trees were entirely uprooted and moved away from their original spot. 

An EF-5 tornado is the worst of the worst. Their winds are 200 mph or more. They're strong enough to shred a well-built home and just leave a bare concrete pad standing. Sometimes the twister will take the concrete pad, or parts of it. An EF-5 tornado can peel bark from any trees left partially standing after the storm. These tornadoes can suck the pavement off of streets, and dig trenches in fields. 

It used to be the U.S. would have an average of one each year. Some years have none, a few have a handful. 

But until this tornado, there hadn't been an EF-5 since May, 2013 when a twister of that strength trashed Moore, Oklahoma, killing at least two dozen people. 

In the North Dakota tornado, a home was entirely swept away and disintegrated, leaving a concrete slab, which would indicate a possible EF-5.  But investigators noted that the anchor bolts on the house might have been substandard, so they couldn't use the house to declare an EF-5. It took the damage to the train to seal the designation. 

As I wrote in March, part of the reason for the long EF-5 drought might have been the way they were measured. 

Before 2007, if a tornado swept a house entirely off its foundation and shredded it, it was considered an EF-5.   Starting that year, such damage was designated as having been created by high-end EF-4 tornadoes.  

So, that rule change meant that some tornadoes between 2013 and 2025 that might in the past would have been rated EF-5 ended up being rated EF-4. Researchers think that as many as 13 EF-4 tornadoes since 2008 would have been EF-5s had not the change been made.  

More Tornadoes, Storms In Weird Locations, But Still No Signs Of Rain Or Anything Here In Vermont

Screenshot from a video showing a large tornado in
North Dakota Sunday. The state was hit by as many
as 19 twisters yesterday. 

While we in Vermont can't even get a sprinkle of rain, weird storms have been hitting areas that are usually not particular stormy, especially this time of year. 

We had the tornadoes in Utah Saturday, which I've already mentioned in this here blog thingy.  I've got an update on that below, but first, more odd tornadoes, this time in North Dakota. 

During Sunday afternoon, a total of 22 reports of tornadoes came in, all but three of them mostly along a narrow north-south line in central parts of the state. The actual number of tornadoes will be determined by the National Weather Service.

Observers said this was probably the biggest September North Dakota tornado outbreak on record. 

The tornadoes hit sparsely populated areas, though there was damage in the tiny central North Dakota communities of Denhoff and Cannon Ball.   

The situation kept meteorologists exceptionally busy, as tornado warnings blared across central North Dakota most of the afternoon and evening.  At one point, storm chaser Brian Copic had two tornadoes in his sights: A large, wedged shaped twister and a skinnier one nearby. 

North Dakota does get tornadoes, averaging about 29 of them per year.  But we're generally past the season for twisters there. But Sunday was an exception. 

The direction of Sunday's storms was a little off, too. They headed north to northwest, not in an east or northeast that most tornadic storms travel. 

North Dakota is also not known for its heavy rain especially in the autumn.  It's in the middle of North America. Humid Gulf of Mexico or Pacific Ocean air has a lot of trouble making it that far north by September, so rainfall is usually fairly sparse. 

However,  Bismarck, North Dakota got more rain in an hour Sunday than they normally do in the entire month of September.  Just under two inches came within that hour, compared to the 1.72 inches that usually falls all month. The storm total in Bismarck Sunday was 2.44 inches.  

Not surprisingly, the city and points south were hit by widespread flash flooding. 

It's been a rough year for severe weather in North Dakota, even by their standards. Four tornadoes and 100 mph straight line winds hit areas near Grand Forks about a month ago. North Dakota also just approved for disaster assistance from damage caused by tornadoes, high winds and flooding back on June 20-21.

In Utah, two homes, two houses trailers, a hay barn and fifth-wheel trailer were destroyed in the tornado. Nobody was hurt, but several pets are missing. Two additional houses were damaged and power lines have come down. 

With Sunday's outbreak, it looks like North Dakota will have had about 60 tornadoes this year, the most there in a single year. 

VERMONT LEFT OUT

Here in Vermont, we often get the remnants of any big storms to our west. Usually in the form of some autumn rain. We could really use it, but, again, not this time. The drought stays strong. 

The Plains storm is lifting directly north into Canada and dissipating. It won't give us any rain at all. Instead, the forecast is the same as it was yesterday: It will be warm and dry through Thursday. Then, a rainless cold front will hit Friday and it will turn cool and dry. Then it will probably warm up again. 

Our next chance of rain isn't until September 25 or 26, but even that is highly uncertain. That storm might go by to our south, missing us again.  

We don't want tornadoes here, but it would be nice if one of those tornadic systems spun off a little rain our way. 

North Dakota Weather Exhaustion. Now The Serious Flooding Sets In

The National Weather Service page for Bismarck, North
Dakota on Saturday had every kind of weather alert
imaginable from blizzard to tornado warnings. 

 Readers of this here blog thingy have surely noticed my fascination with North Dakota of all places in the past few weeks. 

It seems like all the extreme weather in the world has been ganging up on this state, and in parts of Manitoba across the border in Canada.

As the Saturday screenshot from the National Weather Service office in Bismarck shows, almost every kind of bad weather imaginable was hitting the state. 

This include a tornado warning, a tornado watch, severe thunderstorm warning, flood warning, flash flood warning flood advisory, winter weather advisory, blizzard warning and high wind warning. 

About the only thing I'm not seeing there is hurricane warnings or tsunami warnings. The weather chaos has now evolved into a flood problem in eastern North Dakota, and the flooding might spread into blizzard-weary western parts of the state this weekend. 

According to the Grand Forks Herald: 

"In Greater Grand Forks, the weather service is predicting the Red River will crest at 48.5 feet mid-week. The river has already seen a quick jump - just before noon Saturday, April 23 he Red was at 28.93 feet; by early Sunday afternoon, the river was up to 39.7 feet.  

The expected crest on Wednesday would be the sixth highest on record at Grand Forks, where records go back to the 1880s.

The highest Red River flood at Grand Forks, and by far the most devastating was the 54.35 foot crest on April 22, 1997. 

During that flood, most of Grand Forks, including downtown was flooded. Fires broke and destroyed eleven large downtown buildings, including the building housing the Grand Forks Herald newsroom. The paper managed to keep publishing anyway. 

This obelisk in Grand Forks, North Dakota measures flood 
heights on the Red River. The river is forecast to be 
just a few feet lower than the all-time record high
crest at the top of the obelisk, from 1997

Even if the Red River unexpectedly crests higher than forecast, it won't be as devastating as in 1997 because of $1 billion in flood control projects along the river since then.  

This year's episode of flooding gets worse the further north you go. The Red River flows northward along the North Dakota/Minnesota border into Canada. Near Oslo, Minnesota. the river is expected to crest less than half a foot below the all-time record high. 

Widespread flooding has also advanced into Manitoba, Canada. Weather continued to create problems for people battling the floods.  Normal high temperatures in the region this time of year are in the mid-50s.  Monday's highs were only in the mid-20s.  

Though it will warm up somewhat during the week in the flood zone, a new, wet storm is expected to hit Friday and over the weekend. 

Further west, snow and cold is the problem.  Since April 12, it's only gotten above 50 once in Bismarck ,North Dakota. This in a city that normally has high temperatures of around 60 degrees this time of year. 

However, flooding is a good possibility even in western North Dakota as the next storm this weekend appears more likely to cause heavy rain, and not another blizzard.

I'm sure North Dakota is lovely, in its own way, but I'm sure glad I don't live there this spring! I'd rather take the mud underfoot, the drizzly days and snow flurries we've had in Vermont for sure. 

Another Round Of Plains/Rockies Wildfires, Blizzards, Storms

Huge area of the Southwest, in red and especially
pink are at high risk of uncontrollable wildfires todaiy.

While we in Vermont haven't exactly had the nicest spring weather lately, at least it hasn't been as dangerous as it's been in much of the Plains and parts of the Rockies. 

Each round of bad weather seems to get worse and worse, and we have another nasty situation out there today. 

The biggest threat is wildfires. This time, the prime zone for those fires are a little further west that previous iterations.  When NOAA's Storm Prediction Center puts out an "extremely critical fire" alert you know it's serious.

Today's "extremely critical" zone is also much bigger than you typically see, encompassing large chunks of New Mexico and eastern Colorado.

This danger zone includes Denver and Boulder.  People there are probably especially nervous, given how they're just beginning to recover from the fire storm that roared through Boulder suburbs in late December.

That wildfire was the worst in Colorado history, having destroyed around 600 homes. 

Already, large wildfires are burning near Flagstaff and Prescott, Arizona, forcing hundreds of people to evacuate. Other large fires are currently burning in New Mexico.

April is not normally a season for big fires, especially in Colorado. The Front Range area often has snow or cold rains this time of year as storms often develop there and head east, causing severe weather in the Midwest. 

Those storms are forming this year, but going further north than usual, leaving the southern Plains and Colorado and New Mexico parched.

Today, yet another storm is forming, again somewhat north of where they usually go. Temperatures in the fire zone are expected to get into the 80s and 90s, relative humidity will crash to the single digits, winds will gust past 60 mph over ground and vegetation that is at record levels of dryness.'

You see the problem.

Additionally, the storm is setting up a dry line in the central and southern Plains.  As we noted recently, a dry line is pretty common in the spring. It's a sharp north/south boundary between very humid air to the east and hot, very dry air to the west.

Supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes often form along this dry line.  Today, that dry line will start out near the Colorado/Kansas border and push east. What are known as low precipitation, or LP supercells are expected to form.

LP supercells are incredibly dramatic looking, spinning thunderstorms that form striking clouds and sometimes tornadoes. These clouds are so visible because of the lack of rain with them. But LP supercells often spit out quite a few lightning bolts. With the lack of rain and the lightning hitting parched areas, the potential for fire starts is pretty damn big.

DAKOTA BLIZZARD AGAIN

North Dakota is also having an incredibly rough spring. One of the worst blizzards in the state's history struck on April 12-14, and another winter storm hit around April 17. Within that stretch, temperatures his record lows of between zero and 5 above.  

The Dickinson, North Dakota Police Department digging
out from an epic blizzard earlier this month. Another
blizzard is forecast to hit parts of that state this weekend.

Now, another blizzard is set to hit the western part of North Dakota over the weekend with another eight to 15 inches of windblown snow.  The eastern half of the state can expect some heavy rain before precipitation changes to snow. That could cause flooding as runoff from rain and melting snow overwhelms ditches. 

The Red River along the North Dakota/Minnesota border is swelling fast and at least moderate flooding is expected. This will have to be watched carefully.  April, 1997 had similar weather to this year. The Red River in 1997 rose to record levels devastating the city of Grand Forks, North Dakota.

SEVERE WEATHER

Those LP supercells I talked about earlier in this post are expected to become better organized as they move east. Possible tornadoes, destructive straight-line winds and ginormous hail are possible in a stripe from central South Dakota to the Texas panhandle today

Tomorrow, the severe threat moves a little east, involving a stripe that envelops most of Minnesota and extends all the way down to central Texas.

Overall, the severe weather threat today and tomorrow is pretty typical for this time of year. North Dakota often gets blizzards in the spring but this year is quire unusually bad.   The level of fire danger in the southwest is really off the charts for this time of year. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

As is usually the case, we in the Green Mountain State are bystanders to all of this. The weekend will be dry and cool, especially tonight and tomorrow. Everyone will have a frost and freeze tonight, and it'll only get up into the low 50s Saturday afternoon.

Sunday will be a bit warmer. We're still expecting a quick squirt of rather warm air Monday before things turn gloomy again later Monday through at least the middle of next week. 

Very Strange: Part Of North Dakota Under Fire Alert - In February!

A very rare winter red flag warning for rangeland fire risk
today in southwestern North Dakota. 

 When a lot of us think of North Dakota in February, we picture scenes from the movie "Fargo." 

You know, a winter wasteland of blowing, drifting, frigid snow.   Parts of North Dakota are currently breaking that stereotype, though. 

It's true that North Dakota has had bouts of frigid weather this winter, as usual. But in the western part of the state, it's super, super dry. 

For instance, Williston, North Dakota has had only. 0.77 since November 1 - nearly four months.  

Since there's been no precipitation, there's no snow cover out in western North Dakota like there usually is this time of year. 

Most of western and central North Dakota is considered to be in severe drought. 

The result: A rare red flag warning for the risk of wildfires today in southwestern North Dakota.  Strong, gusty and very dry southwesterly winds today are being blamed for the rangeland fire risk. It is just odd to see this happening in part of the nation's ice box in February. 

Even though no particular fire warnings are up elsewhere, other parts of the Dakotas are under some risk of fires today due to a lack of snow cover. This risk exists as far away as Yankton, in southeastern South Dakota. 

It's normally quite dry in western North Dakota during the winter.  Most winter months only see a half inch of rain or melted snow per month during the cold season. But since it's even drier than normal, they're getting this strange fire risk.