More Tornadoes, Storms In Weird Locations, But Still No Signs Of Rain Or Anything Here In Vermont

Screenshot from a video showing a large tornado in
North Dakota Sunday. The state was hit by as many
as 19 twisters yesterday. 

While we in Vermont can't even get a sprinkle of rain, weird storms have been hitting areas that are usually not particular stormy, especially this time of year. 

We had the tornadoes in Utah Saturday, which I've already mentioned in this here blog thingy.  I've got an update on that below, but first, more odd tornadoes, this time in North Dakota. 

During Sunday afternoon, a total of 22 reports of tornadoes came in, all but three of them mostly along a narrow north-south line in central parts of the state. The actual number of tornadoes will be determined by the National Weather Service.

Observers said this was probably the biggest September North Dakota tornado outbreak on record. 

The tornadoes hit sparsely populated areas, though there was damage in the tiny central North Dakota communities of Denhoff and Cannon Ball.   

The situation kept meteorologists exceptionally busy, as tornado warnings blared across central North Dakota most of the afternoon and evening.  At one point, storm chaser Brian Copic had two tornadoes in his sights: A large, wedged shaped twister and a skinnier one nearby. 

North Dakota does get tornadoes, averaging about 29 of them per year.  But we're generally past the season for twisters there. But Sunday was an exception. 

The direction of Sunday's storms was a little off, too. They headed north to northwest, not in an east or northeast that most tornadic storms travel. 

North Dakota is also not known for its heavy rain especially in the autumn.  It's in the middle of North America. Humid Gulf of Mexico or Pacific Ocean air has a lot of trouble making it that far north by September, so rainfall is usually fairly sparse. 

However,  Bismarck, North Dakota got more rain in an hour Sunday than they normally do in the entire month of September.  Just under two inches came within that hour, compared to the 1.72 inches that usually falls all month. The storm total in Bismarck Sunday was 2.44 inches.  

Not surprisingly, the city and points south were hit by widespread flash flooding. 

It's been a rough year for severe weather in North Dakota, even by their standards. Four tornadoes and 100 mph straight line winds hit areas near Grand Forks about a month ago. North Dakota also just approved for disaster assistance from damage caused by tornadoes, high winds and flooding back on June 20-21.

In Utah, two homes, two houses trailers, a hay barn and fifth-wheel trailer were destroyed in the tornado. Nobody was hurt, but several pets are missing. Two additional houses were damaged and power lines have come down. 

With Sunday's outbreak, it looks like North Dakota will have had about 60 tornadoes this year, the most there in a single year. 

VERMONT LEFT OUT

Here in Vermont, we often get the remnants of any big storms to our west. Usually in the form of some autumn rain. We could really use it, but, again, not this time. The drought stays strong. 

The Plains storm is lifting directly north into Canada and dissipating. It won't give us any rain at all. Instead, the forecast is the same as it was yesterday: It will be warm and dry through Thursday. Then, a rainless cold front will hit Friday and it will turn cool and dry. Then it will probably warm up again. 

Our next chance of rain isn't until September 25 or 26, but even that is highly uncertain. That storm might go by to our south, missing us again.  

We don't want tornadoes here, but it would be nice if one of those tornadic systems spun off a little rain our way. 

Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak Upper Midwest Today, We In Vermont Could See Severe Storms Later Tuesday

Widespread severe storms and likely tornadoes are 
likely today, especially in red and orange areas 
on this map. 

The Upper Midwest if bracing for a rough day today of potentially strong tornadoes, giant hail and destructive winds as the weather set up is almost ideal for a severe weather outbreak in that neck of the woods. 

That severe weather is forecast to some extent migrate toward the Northeast, maybe affecting Vermont later tomorrow. More on that in a bit. First, today's Midwest threats.

TORNADO RISK DETAILS

Even before our storm really got going, things were looking ominous Sunday evening. Some supercells spit out a handful of large tornadoes in western and central Nebraska.

Some pretty strong storms were ongoing early this morning in eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota.

These are just a preview. The main show will get going this afternoon

The area under the biggest threat for dangerous weather today includes most of Wisconsin and Iowa, southern and central Minnesota and northwest Illinois.  

Major cities most likely to be under the gun are Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota; Madison, Wisconsin; Des Moines, Iowa and Rockford, Illinois.

A somewhat lesser but real threat extends southwestward all the way down to Texas.  

We know we'll see severe storms and tornadoes in the Upper Midwest today, but we don't 100 percent know exactly how they'll evolve.

If supercells manage to form and maintain themselves ahead of the main line of storms later today, then we end up with the risk of strong, long-lasting tornadoes plowing through Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

That scenario is a maybe/maybe not. But if these dangerous supercells erupt, they'll go from nothingburgers to extremely dangerous monsters in minutes. The National Weather Service office in the Minneapolis area is not mincing words in their forecast discussion:

"The takeaway from today's severe storm potential is to remain vigilant of the potential for storms to go up quickly. This may mean checking your phone more often or keeping an eye to the sky, but don't let your guard down in this environment."

 If, instead, the main line of storms exerts itself more, there might not necessarily be those supercells out ahead of the storm  This second scenario is still bad news, as there will be zones of destructive straight line winds and quite a few embedded tornadoes in this mess.

The most likely outcome  today is a combination of what I described above. The main question will be how many supercells form ahead of the main blast of storms. 

TUESDAY'S STORM ADVANCE

Tuesday's severe storm risk area is in yellow, with the
orange area at a somewhat higher risk. Note how the
yellow risk area extends into parts of Vermont, 

By Tuesday, the main threat from this dynamic storm heads east. The storm center itself will race up into central Quebec, but its powerful cold front will press east into the Great Lakes. 

Tuesday's threat area runs from southern Quebec and Ontario, then southwestward through northwest New England, the eastern Great Lakes, northern Ohio Valley then all the way down to central Texas. 

The greatest threat looks go from central Ohio, through northwest Pennsylvania and on into western and central New York.  

While there might be a couple tornadoes in this area, the main threat is damaging winds and large, destructive hail.

As noted, the severe threat extend into Quebec and northwest New England, so that puts Vermont in play. Details next:

VERMONT THREAT

This daffodil looks completely defeated and possibly 
dead after Sunday's snow in St. Albans, but....

Before we get into the severe storm threat, a final word or two on Sunday's snow.

A couple places got an impressive amount of snow. A high elevation spot in Greensboro reported .1 inches of snow. Brownington reported 3.5 inches.  

Here in St. Albans, it was striking how snowy and miserable it was in the early afternoon.

 By evening, it was a downright pleasant spring evening, with sunshine and relatively mild air. Go figure.

Today, by the way, will be gorgeous, with sunshine and temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Enjoy!

Now onto our next threat. 

But same daffodil three hours after above photo was taken
shows a nice recovery. This daffodil, and the rest of
them in the gardens, might have to endure some
severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening in northwest Vermont.

South winds ahead of that approaching cold front will throw a squirt of warm, somewhat humid air into Vermont. 

 Most of the day will actually be nice with highs reaching well into the 70s, with maybe an 80 degree reading or two in a couple of Vermont's more "tropical" towns. 

Dew points - a measure of how humid it will get - should reach the mid 50s to around 60. That's kinda humid for this time of year but not oppressive. 

Thunderstorms thrive on humid air, so the more muggy the air is, the more fuel for these storms. 

So the outlook for the thunderstorms in the humidity category is so-so.  

However, there will be strong winds aloft. Storms that do form can grab that high altitude air and shove it down to the surface, where we are. That's why there's the risk of severe storms.  A few of these could have wind gusts to 60 mph or even a little more. 

The heat from sunshine created instability, which is part of the reason why the thunderstorms are likely to be so strong over New York, since they'll hit there in the afternoon.

Timing is such that the storms look like they'll come in very late in the afternoon and evening. For instance, current forecasts have the best chance for thunderstorms in Burlington between 6 and 8 p.m. Tuesday,

By the time they reach Vermont, the storms will be beginning to diminish. At this point, it looks like a few storms still might have enough oomph to be severe generally in an area north and west of a line running from roughly Rutland to Montpelier to east of Newport. 

As the storms head toward southeastern Vermont later in the evening they'll diminish to nothing scary. 

Note that not everyone will get a severe storm. Northwest Vermont is in a level two of a five point risk scale, five being the hair-on-fire top scary alert. Our level two "slight risk" means scattered severe storms are possible, but they'll tend to be relatively short-lived and not terribly widespread.

So, just keep your eye to the sky Tuesday evening if you're in northwest Vermont and head inside if you receive a severe thunderstorm warning or see ominous skies to the west and north. 

The cold front might also produce some fairly strong winds after the thunderstorms go by.  These winds won't be associated with any thunderstorms, but they could cause very isolated power outages in a  few spots.

Unlike the cold front we saw this past weekend, it won't get nearly cold enough for snow.  Instead, Wednesday looks bright, refreshingly cool and breezy.  

Oklahoma Continues To Have An Extremely Rough Autumn. Today Will Be Third Day In Row With Tornadoes

Huge board pierced this car in this weekend's 
Oklahoma tornadoes. Twisters can fling things quite a
ways, as was the case here. Notice the lack of 
damage in the background, this board was ejected
some distance from the tornado.

Saturday night and early Sunday, Oklahoma endured a series of intensely destructive tornadoes.

Sunday and Sunday night, a new round of tornado warnings blared across the state amid clusters of severe thunderstorms and flooding downpours. 

'

An even more widespread outbreak of tornadoes and severe weather seems likely today in Oklahoma, northern Texas and western Arkansas. 

The tornadoes early Sunday focused on the southeastern part of the Oklahoma City metro area, hitting Newcastle, Moore, Valley Brook and Hurrah.  You might recognize a couple of those towns as seemingly always being hit by tornadoes, so I guess it happened again. 

This time, eleven people were taken to hospitals with tornado-related injuries. Dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed.  Other storms produced damaging straight line winds and flash flooding. 

Sunday afternoon, tornado warnings blared around Oklahoma City again, as severe thunderstorms and additional flash flooding. More than four inches of rain poured down on Oklahoma City Saturday night and Sunday. 

Today, if anything looks potentially worse.  The area under the gun for severe weather is more widespread than it has been for the past two. The atmospheric at least as of this morning look favorable for a variety of hazards including tornadoes, a couple of which might be quite strong, intense straight line winds, large hail and flash flooding.

In anticipation of the bad weather, dozens of Oklahoma schools and some colleges have canceled classes today. Oklahoma Municipal Court has also canceled sessions today. 

Already, this morning and early afternoon, there's been a couple of tornado warnings in Oklahoma, and that's ahead of the main show expected this afternoon and evening. 

Tornado and severe thunderstorm outbreaks are usually creatures of the spring and summer. Strong storm systems combined with strong daytime heating from the sun combine to create those big storms in the spring.

However, there's sometimes a smaller second season in the fall.  The sun's heating is pretty lame this time of year. But storm systems are stronger this time of year than in the summer. That strength  can overcome the weak daytime heating to produce dangerously stormy weather. 

What makes this situation unusual is that the rough weather has been sitting over or near Oklahoma for three days, if you count today. 

Usually, autumn storms that produce severe storms and tornadoes are in and out quickly. You get a  round of damaging storms on one day, and the next that storm system is hundreds of miles to the east. 

This storm will finally move on tonight and weaken as it moves east, greatly diminishing the severe storm and tornado threat 

This time is different. 

Less than 24 hours after tornadoes in Oklahoma metro area, mid-afternoon severe t-storm warnings: 

 

Yet ANOTHER Big Tornado Outbreak Looms In Midwest As Weather Here In Vermont Turns Changeable

Another day of severe weather and tornadoes is due
in the Plains today.  Up here in Vermont, we can
expect some changeable weather over 
the next few days. 

 The ongoing slog of severe weather and tornadoes continues through much of the middle of the nation. A fresh outbreak of storms and tornadoes today and Sunday is forecast to be among the worst this season.  

Here in Vermont, we'll have changeable weather, including a rather stormy Monday and Monday night. More on that coming up.

TORNADO/STORM HAVOC

Bad weather continued on Friday in the middle of the nation and it's going to get worse today.

Early Friday, a band of intense thunderstorms and a few embedded tornados raced from Nebraska, through Iowa and into Illinois, causing more damage.

Greenfield, Iowa, where an intense, deadly tornado mowed down and pulverized homes along a path through town on Tuesday, thunderstorm winds of 75 mph caused added damage there. Those winds tore tarps off of tornado-damaged roofs, knocked down some of the surviving trees and cut power again. 

Today, the alarm bells are going off especially in Kansas and Oklahoma, where we have another risk of violent, long-lasting tornadoes later today. 

That area is in a moderate risk zone for chaos, the second highest level.  As of early this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center was considering upgrading the risk level to a relatively rare high rating. There's still some questions as to how much super humid air will feed into this area.  If the humid air doesn't fully engulf this risk area, tornadoes might not be as widespread as feared. 

Stay tuned, and we'll hope the humidity sputters.

 Metro areas in the danger zone include Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma and Wichita, Kansas. In addition to the tornadoes, giant hail and hurricane force straight line winds are also possible in spots. Not everybody in the risk zone will see such dangerous weather, but a few certainly will. 

The activity moves on to Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Well, the heat we had this past week is certainly over. 

After a gorgeous, breezy, refreshing blue sky, green landscape day Friday, those clear skies led to the chilliest dawn since early this month. 

A crisp, blue sky morning in Vermont will lead to 
some changeable weather over the next few days,
though we're lucky enough to not be in for the
kind of severe weather occurring out in the
Midwest. No tornadoes for us!

 It wasn't extreme, but temperatures did fall to at least 31 in perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York. Readings in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom were in the mid-30s, while most of us were in the 40s. 

Burlington ended an 11-day streak of temperatures continuously above 50 degrees, which is quite rare for May.

We'll have another nice day today, though clouds will increase. A weak disturbance tonight will scatter some showers around, and we might even hear a rumble of thunder in a couple spots. No biggie.

Sunday will be a warm, largely sunny day. It might be a little too warm for those participating in Sunday's Vermont City Marathon in Burlington. Temperatures at dawn will start out near 60 and quickly rise well into the 70s by noon. Humidity will be moderate.

The interesting weather arrives Monday into Tuesday as we in Vermont see the effects of that Midwest storm. 

Luckily, we won't see extremes, but we should get a good dose of rain, some thunderstorms, and especially in the Champlain Valley, some gusty south winds. 

After a few days of low humidity, we'll actually need the rain for the gardens. At this point anywhere from a half inch to an inch and a half of rain is in the cards. The National Weather Service actually has us in a broad marginal risk zone for flash flooding Monday and Monday night. 

That said, even if we see anything like that in Vermont, it will be isolated and not catastrophic. We're still - so far at least - not setting ourselves up for anything like we had last summer. 

Starting Tuesday and going through the rest of the week, the weather will stay sort of cool for the season with risks for showers almost daily. No new heat waves in sight for now. 

National Tornado Train Continues: Tragedy In Iowa As Ominous Forecasts Continue

Screen grab from a drone video shows the buzz saw
path of the tornado through Greenfield, Iowa.
Click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see.

 The expected tornado outbreak in and around Iowa materialized Tuesday, with at least 23 new tornadoes reported. 

The biggest crisis was in the town of Greenfield, Iowa, population about 2,000. A powerful tornado chewed a path directly through the town, chewing up everything in its path and leaving little but mutilated rubble behind. 

Worryingly, officials are reporting deaths in that town. KETV confirmed four deaths in Greenfield late this afternoon.  Judging from photos and video from Greenfield, which show some houses swept entirely away, leaving just floor slabs, it's hard to imagine everyone got off unscathed. 

Another death was reported near Corning, Iowa, that of a woman whose car was blown off a road and tossed into a field. Reports are the woman was a storm chaser. 

This despite the fact the National Weather Service office in Des Moines was able to warn Greenfield residents of the tornado 46 minutes before it actually hit. 

Drone view from Reed Timmer shows a massive tornado with numerous sub vortices - tornadoes within the parent tornado - knocking over giant wind turbines in open fields. Some of the collapsed turbines caught fire. 

At one point one of the sub-vortices in the tornado had its own sub-vortice, which is really weird and rare. 

Through yesterday, at least 815 tornadoes have been reported this year in the United States. So far, it's the worst tornado season since 2011, though thankfully the total number of fatalities is well below that of 2011.

There has been at least one tornado daily in the United States since April 25, and I don't see the streak ending immediately. 

For most of that time, the general jet stream flow has been generally been from southwest to northeast over the eastern two thirds of the nation. That has allowed numerous storms to travel from the roughly the central and southern Rocky Mountains to the Great Lakes. 

That's a perfect set-up to send warm, humid air northward across the nation's middle. That air interacts with those storm systems, creating a good environment for severe thunderstorms, giant hail and tornadoes. 

We in Vermont have been mostly spared from worst of that weather pattern because the storms have tended to weaken on approach to New England, or pass too far to our northwest to have much influence. 

Tuesday was the first time this year any severe thunderstorms were reported inVermont, though some strongish thunderstorms appeared on April 28 and May 14. 

Although after tomorrow, the small threat of severe storms in Vermont should disappear for awhile, things look like they might get even worse on other parts of the U.S. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center tells us a "concerning pattern is evident on Sunday across broad region of the central U.S."

According to forecasts a strong storm is expected to move from Missouri to Michigan on Sunday. That, and expected shifting winds in the atmosphere and plenty of humid air ahead of the storm, suggests the real risk of a big severe outbreak and tornadoes later Saturday and through much of the day Sunday. 

Early guesses are that the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys are most at risk Sunday. 

There is one glimmer of hope.  Next week, a  pattern change could send high pressure into the United States west of the Mississippi River. That will shut off that parade of storms. However, storminess will continue in the East. And it's late enough in the season so that under the right conditions with the new weather pattern, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can form from the eastern Gulf Coast to New England. 

It's also unclear how long that new weather pattern will last. 

May is thought by many to be the peak tornado month, but they are also very common in June, so the end probably isn't coming anytime soon. 

Day 2 Of Severe Weather Outbreak Was Bad Again, Today, Day 3 Might Be Even Worse

The United States at the moment is dealing with its second large tornado outbreak in a month, and today will be just as bad as the previous two.  

Today's severe storm and tornado risk covers a broad part 
of the U.S. Areas in orange and especially red are
most at risk. Note the dark green in southern Vermont,
which denotes the possibility of an isolated severe
storm or two this afternoon. 

On Monday, as you recall, tornadoes targeted Oklahoma and surrounding areas, killing at least one person. Another man in devastated Barnsdall, Oklahoma is missing. 

Tuesday was the second day of this outbreak, this time targeting parts of southern Michigan, along with Indiana and Ohio. 

Today, a huge area is under the gun for severe weather and tornadoes. The most dangerous area will be from northeast Texas through Kentucky, with a particular area of concern right near the Mississippi River in Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky.

A low risk of severe weather extends all the way to us here in Vermont, but we're expecting nothing nearly as dramatic as what will happen in the Midwest today. 

More on Vermont's weather further down in this post.  

TUESDAY RECAP 

A rare tornado emergency was declared as a large twister swept through areas southeast of Kalamazoo, Michigan. The city of Portage was hit by two tornadoes space around an hour apart. One of the twisters slammed a large FedEx distribution center, tearing off much of the roof and collapsing walls.  

The tornado trapped about 50 people in the wreckage of the building,  but they were later rescued without serious injury. 

It's always bad when a tornado hits a mobile home park, and one was hit in Portage. Nearly 20 mobile homes were destroyed and another 170 or so damaged. Up to 20 injuries were reported there, but there were thankfully no deaths, and the injuries do not appear to be life-threatening.  

The tornado also leveled a strip mall.  Employees at a Pizza Hut took shelter in a walk-in freezer while the building collapsed around them.  They ended up with no major injuries. 

In total, about 30 tornado reports came in from Tuesday's storms, on top of the 25 reported Monday. Those figures will change as meteorologists investigate tornado damaged areas to determine whether destruction in particular areas was caused by tornadoes or intense thunderstorm winds.   

The Washington Post says Tuesday was the 13th day in a row in which tornadoes were reported in the United States. Today will almost definitely be the 14th. 

TODAY

Tornadoes, as noted, are all but certain today, but how many and how strong they get depends on a variety of factors. If an intense squall line forms, there will be embedded tornadoes in that, but the greater threat in the mid-Mississippi valley into the Ohio valley would be intense straight line winds.

If that squall line isn't as organized, more supercells with possible strong tornadoes would form in the region. In any event, people in a huge area from Dallas to Cincinnati ought to stay weather aware today. 

The threat of severe storms will continue in the Southeast tomorrow. After that, the risk of tornadoes anywhere in the U.S. will diminish, but not entirely go away Friday through the weekend. 

VERMONT

Much like on Sunday, a wave of rain was moving through the Green Mountain State this morning. But this afternoon, things might evolve differently than they did over the weekend. 

After that goes, through, an area of drier air comes in. That will open up the atmosphere for some heating from the sun, which might increase instability. The drier air won't be gone dry. And there's some strong winds aloft. All this could be fuel for afternoon showers and storms, and one or two might be on the severe side.

This is where expectations for this afternoon gets tricky. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, in their forecast discussion, said that if the incoming air is too dry, very few showers and thunderstorms will form.  If the air coming in is more moist than expected, an overcast will hold firm, preventing instability and limiting the chances of thunderstorms 

It the afternoon air is sort of mid-range in terms of dryness, that would be a window for an isolated thunderstorm or two to produce damaging wind gust or large hail.

We know that this won't be anything widespread. If anybody gets hit be a nasty storm, it will be just a couple locations at most.  The most likely zone for this would be Addison County and western Rutland county. 

Elsewhere, in northern Vermont, there could be a few thunderstorms, just a chance, but they shouldn't be severe.  

Update: Kansas, Oklahoma REALLY Under The Gun For Tornadoes Today

Dangerous day in the central Plains today. The moderate
risk zone later got an upgrade to high risk as 
forecasters fear there might be intense, long
tracked tornadoes in this region later today. 

UPDATE: 

After I wrote the narrative below, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk zone - the highest severe storm and risk category - for parts of central and north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas. 

Cities under the high risk are Oklahoma City, Norman, Moore, and Norman, Oklahoma.

Moore already has an ugly history with tornadoes, having suffered two EF-5 twisters, the most intense and dangerous kind, since 1999. Moore has also had other, less intense tornadoes in that time frame.

Norman is the headquarters for Storm Prediction Center, which manages severe weather and tornado dangers. The local National Weather Service office that covers a broad swath of central Oklahoma is also located in Norman. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As I highlighted on Saturday, the threat of tornadoes in the middle of the nation ramps up today. It's worth an update because tornado experts are definitely more nervous than usual. 

THE FORECAST

The chances of particularly intense, long lasting and highly destructive tornadoes is if anything higher than it was back on April 26 and 28 when more than 200 tornadoes caused intense destruction in Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Kansas. Five people died in that outbreak. 

It's unknown whether there will be that many tornadoes this time, though the risk of quite a few tornadoes lasts from this afternoon through Thursday in parts of the Plains, Midwest, Southeast and East Coast.  

Updated map showing high risk tornado and severe
storm area today in Oklahoma and Kansas.

 For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all of central Oklahoma and southern Kansas in a moderate risk of severe storms and tornadoes today. That's the second highest alert level on a five point scale, but meteorologists point out it's sort of at the top end of  a moderate risk. 

"Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes are expected, especially in parts of southern Kansas into Oklahoma," the Storm Prediction Center, or SPC said in its early Monday morning forecast assessment. 

 The SPC toyed with the idea of upgrading the moderate risk designation to high risk, the most intense alert level. However, as of early this morning the meteorologists at the center still had some questions as to how many intense tornadoes will develop today. 

(EDITORS NOTE: As the update above says, the SPC has decided to go with a high risk alert for tornadoes today in parts of the region, given the favorable environment for strong, long-lasting tornadoes.)

Those meteorologists left the door open to declare a high risk day with updates later this morning. 

High risk severe storm and tornado designations are rare, usually happening on average just once a year. Some  years have none, and others have a handful. The last time the Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk alert was on March 31, 2023. 

That resulting outbreak last year resulted in 136 tornadoes with 23 deaths. 

For today's outbreak, I guess the best hope is that any strong tornadoes that do form avoid large towns and cities, and stay in open country instead.

Metropolitan areas most at risk this afternoon and night are Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Lawton, Oklahoma and Wichita, Kansas.  The risk of tornadoes extends well south, north and east of these cities.

ADDED RISKS

Here's a couple more reasons to be worried about this likely tornado outbreak. 

The threat continues well into the night, after dark. Nighttime tornadoes are in general more dangerous than those that hit during the day. Although you should take shelter immediately when hearing a tornado warning, people tend to seek visual confirmation that a twister is coming. 

You don't see approaching tornadoes nearly as well at night, so some people might try to take shelter too late, when the tornado is upon them. Also, people might be sleeping or otherwise unable to hear warnings. 

Since this promises to be a particularly big outbreak, hordes of storm chasers are now converging on Oklahoma and Kansas. While most (but not all!) experienced storm chasers are pretty safe, many amateurs don't know what they're doing and can get in real trouble. 

They don't get out of the way in time, or they drive recklessly to get near a tornado, or clots of chasers clog roads, blocking escape routes for others. 

STORM FATIGUE

This has been a particularly busy tornado season. According to preliminary figures, the nation has already seen 586 tornadoes this year as of this morning. At least 300 of them hit in April.

The national death toll for tornadoes so far in 2024 is relatively low considering how many twisters we've seen. So far 13 people have lost their lives in tornadoes this year. 

We can only hope that our relative good luck on that score continues. An excellent warning system has kept the deaths low compared to past storms. But there's no guarantee that will continue. 

I'm sure people in the Plains and Midwest are sick of tornado warnings, too, as there have been so many. 

It'll continue past today. 

Tuesday, the tornado risk zone shifts to places in and near the Ohio Valley. Wednesday, a huge area centered on the middle Mississippi Valley is under the gun, then it's the middle and southern Atlantic coast and Texas that deals with the rough weather on Thursday.

Up here in Vermont it'll be showery off an on Wednesday through Sunday, with nice dry breaks in between. We will escape the severe weather. At this point the worst we can expect is a possible rumble of thunder and a brief downpour or two later in the week. All good.  

Big Tornado Outbreak Underway: Nebraska/Iowa Hit Hard; Oklahoma Under Threat Today

 A destructive tornado outbreak is underway in the middle of the nation, and it could turn out to be among the more significant ones in the past few decades. 

Tornado near Lincoln, Nebraska Friday.
image from X @LNKScanner

Nebraska and Iowa took the brunt of Friday's tornadoes. Dozens of homes and businesses in the two states were destroyed. Amazing, so far I haven't seen reports of any deaths. It helped greatly that these storms were very well warned. 

The worst affected area Friday seems to be on a straight line from just north of Lincoln, Nebraska to the western suburbs of Omaha into western Iowa above Omaha. Dramatic video captured a large tornado crossing Interstate 80 near Lincoln.

A manufacturing plant in Lincoln with 70 people inside collapsed in the tornado but only three people suffered non-life threatening injuries. 

The western Omaha suburbs of Elkhorn and Bennington were hit hard, with at least 50 homes destroyed. But again, casualties were light. Only two injuries were reported.

That so far no deaths and only a smattering of injuries have been reported is testimony to the great tornado warnings issued ahead of the storms. The National Weather Service declared a tornado emergency for the western and northern Omaha metro region as it became apparent a tornado would approach that area.

This "hair on fire" type warning surely prompted lots of people to hide in basements and tornado shelters, and that prevented deaths. 

A tornado emergency was also declared in southwestern Iowa, where a huge tornado destroyed a large chunk of Minden. Aerial views show entire neighborhoods there flattened.

It's possible a tornado was on the ground that entire distance from Lincoln into Iowa, But far more likely is the parent supercell dropped several twisters along that path. 

Typically, a tornadic supercell will produce a tornado that might travel several miles before dissipating. The supercell takes a brief breather, then drops another twister that goes several more miles. Rinse and repeat.

Yet another supercell seems to have produced some occasionally large, violent tornadoes east of Omaha well into Iowa.  Between those two lines, a tornado touched down at Eppley Field, which is Omaha's airport. Some buildings on the east end of the airport were damaged, but the storm didn't affect the main terminal.   

Later at night, tornadoes approached the Des Moines, Iowa area, with damage reported in the southern and eastern parts of the city and its suburbs. 

In all, there were about 100 reports of tornadoes Friday. Many of those reports are probably duplicates, with multiple people reporting the same, highly visible twisters. 

TORNADOES TODAY

If anything, today could be even worse in terms of tornadoes. 

A moderate risk - the second highest in a six-point scale of severe weather risk is up for central Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas and a part of northern Texas.

The Oklahoma City area, especially its suburbs of Moore and Newcastle, seem to be tornado bait for some reason and have been repeatedly hit by large, deadly tornadoes in recent decades. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says several large, powerful and long-tracked tornadoes are likely today. 

Flooding is also likely in many of the same areas that are under the greatest tornado threat. 

Another Big Round Of U.S. Tornadoes, But This One Was Typical For May

People try to recover items from destroyed homes after
a deadly tornado in Laguna Heights Texas on Saturday.
Photo by Julio Cortez/AP.

 There were LOTS of tornadoes in the United States over the past several days. But unlike some big outbreaks earlier this year, the spate of twisters this past week was mostly typical for the United States this time of year. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a preliminary count of 108 twisters, mostly in the Plains and western Midwest between Wednesday and Saturday.  While many of the tornadoes caused a lot of damage, we don't have any reports of fatalities in the main tornado zone.

However, there was one strong tornado along the extreme southern Texas Gulf Coast early Saturday that unfortunately killed one person, injured 10 and caused extensive damage to the little town of Laguna Heights, Texas. 

A tornado watch in Iowa prompted former President Trump to cancel a rally in Des Moines. Although this will make people mad, I can't resist asking why Trump didn't simply use a Sharpie to move the tornado threat to another location so he could have his little festival. 

On average, the United States sees an average of about 275 tornadoes each May. That makes May the busiest tornado month of the year for the United States. 

It's hard to say if this May will end up turning out busier or lighter than average in terms of tornadoes. An odd for May weather pattern features a record breaking heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada.

April this year was also light on tornadoes, with 109 preliminary reports as opposed to a monthly average of about 190. However, tornadoes, some quite deadly, were much more frequent than average in January through March.

So far this year, we've seen at least 64 deaths from tornadoes in the United States. That's definitely above average for the date, but thankfully not the worst it's ever been. Fingers crossed it stays that way. 

That will introduce a rather dry northwest flow over much of tornado country.  That type of weather pattern sure really suppress the severe weather threat for the next week or so. There still could be a handful of tornadoes during that time. After all, it is May. But won't' be any big outbreaks for awhile. 

 However, we don't know whether the final week or so of May will become busy again.  Some long range forecasts suggest the weather pattern in the final week of the month might be pretty favorable for tornadoes, we'll have to wait and see.

Here in Vermont, we know tornadoes are rare, but we do receive severe thunderstorms from time to time. Severe weather season in Vermont starts about now, and peaks roughly from mid-June to early August.

The same weather pattern that is suppressing national tornadoes for the upcoming week will prevent severe thunderstorms in Vermont for the time being. Sure, we might get some showers Tuesday and next weekend, but nothing scary. 

Tornado Toll From Friday Got Much Worse, And We're Going To Do It Again

Areas in orange and especially red are most at risk for
another round of tornadoes tomorrow. If this map looks
familiar, it's because the forecast map ahead of 
last Friday's tornado outbreak was almost identical to this one.

Saturday morning, I was vaguely relieved that there had "only" been nine deaths associated with a widespread tornado outbreak on Friday. 

I should not have been so smug.

At last check, 32 people died in the Friday tornadoes, which is worse than the death toll from twisters exactly a week earlier. This toll includes another person died in a Delaware tornado on Saturday. 

The deaths back on March 24 were focused on Mississippi, where dangerous night time tornadoes blasted a handful of relatively rural towns. 

 I think so many people died March 24 at least in part because the tornadoes came through at night, when people aren't as aware of the danger. 

Not only was the death count worse than a week early, this past Friday's tornadoes covered a far, far more widespread area.   

By my count, more than 100 preliminary reports of tornadoes came in from at least a dozen states. It was one of the most widespread outbreaks I've seen in recent years. It stretched from Arkansas to Georgia and from Iowa to New Jersey and Delaware.

This time, the death toll was high because there were so many tornadoes. With that many twisters - some of them unusually violent - spinning in so many different places, it's inevitable there would be casualties no matter how good the warnings. 

As the Associated Press reports, the most concentrated deaths were east of Memphis where nine people died in yes, a tornado that struck after dark. Overall in Tennessee, 15 people died in this outbreak, so Tennessee was the worst hit in this one. 

So far this year, 63 Americans have died in tornadoes. The average annual number of deaths from twisters is 80, so we're already pretty close.  The absolute peak of tornado season doesn't hit until late April through early June, so we've got a long way to go. 

A new, thankfully lesser and smaller severe storm outbreak hit northern Texas Sunday. I'm not yet sure if any tornadoes touched down, but there were several reports of damaging winds and large hail.  Airports around Dallas declared ground stops as the storms rolled through. I'm also not aware of any deaths or serious injuries in Texas last night. 

NEXT UP. 

Now, unfortunately, it's rinse and repeat. A storm that appears as if it will be remarkably similar to Friday's is looming for the Midwest and South tomorrow. Forecast maps show the exact same areas that were under the highest risk Friday are again at the greatest peril from this new storm. 

The strongest tornadoes at this point seem poised to hit eastern Iowa, western Illinois and northeastern Missouri which were hit hard last Friday. 

Arkansas looks like another target.  This after neighborhoods on the west and north side of Little Rock were devastated by a large tornado on Friday. 

In Arkansas, one person died in North Little Rock. About 50 people in the Little Rock metro area were injured and the city said 2, 648 structures were damaged or destroyed. The supercell that produced the Little Rock tornado dropped another twister on the city of Wynne, Arkansas, causing an additional four fatalities. 

I'm sure people in Arkansas are praying there won't be a repeat.

Much like on Saturday, this storm could produce severe weather in Ohio, Pennsylvania and western New York on Wednesday,

This same storm system is also going to create another blizzard in the northern Plains. 

One glimmer of hope is that after this next storm, things are forecast to settle down for awhile. The weather pattern is changing, at least temporarily, to one that will produce little severe weather and a rather low chance of tornadoes in the U.S. for at least a week, beginning Thursday. 

This was kind of a morbid post, but sometimes reality sucks. Maybe tornado season is getting is energy out early and the rest of it will be more mild?  Time will tell.

 

3-Day Severe Storm/Tornado Outbreak Starting This Afternoon Could Be Worst Yet This Year

Areas in dark green, yellow, orange and red are at risk
for severe storms and tornadoes tomorrow. Areas in
orange and red are most at risk for tornadoes, and
some of them could be quite strong.

 A strong storm that might eventually lead to the chance of a decent snowstorm here in Vermont is about to cause some serious trouble in the south. 

Conditions seem ripe for a three-day outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes across the South.  Some of the tornadoes might be quite strong, and this could be the most intense storm outbreak so far this year. 

The news grew worse late this morning with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center upgraded today's risk across much of Arkansas and parts of surrounding states. 

What had been a forecast for some severe storms and maybe a tornado or two. Now, tornadoes are somewhat more likely in southern Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi, and a couple of the tornadoes could be quite strong.

The tornadoes that make the news tend to be strong ones, with winds of between 111 mph to over 200 mph.  The overwhelming majority of America's twisters are weaker, with winds of 70 to 111 mph. Those weaker tornadoes can certainly damage a lot of property and endanger lives, but there's not as risky as the stronger ones. 

Today's tornado risk in Arkansas isn't even really part of the large storm that's expected to develop. Instead, it's part of a smaller storm that is destabilizing the unseasonably warm, humid air today in the South. 

An even riskier day for tornadoes is in the card for tomorrow. That's when a powerful storm system will begin to get its act together over Texas. This new storm will introduce strong winds in the atmosphere, especially a few thousand feet overhead in the western Gulf Coast states.

Worse, this storm will introduce a lot of veering winds at different levels of the atmosphere, especially roughly in the area where Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana meet. 

Some strong tornadoes are possible there. Even areas that don't see any twisters could be subject to destructive straight line winds in powerful thunderstorms. 

On Friday, the risk of severe storms and tornadoes will move to a large portion of the Southeast. 

Storm experts are not saying a big storm outbreak with lots of tornadoes is inevitable. Instead, the potential seems high. There's still time for things to fall apart enough to produce fewer big storms. 

Although the worst U.S.  tornado outbreaks usually wait until April or May, you can get them in the winter. And the risk begins to ramp up in March, at least a little. 

Perhaps the nation's worst early March tornado outbreak came on March 2-3, 2012, when at least 70 tornadoes struck the Midwest and South, killing 41 people and causing an estimated $3.2 billion in damage. 

As I mentioned in a previous post, this winter has been unusually busy for tornadoes in the U.S., so this new outbreak isn't great news. 

One vaguely hopeful sign is a weather pattern change is expected to bring colder, drier air to larger portions of the United States during much of the rest of the month. Tornadoes thrive on humid, hot air, so if we're lucky, tornadoes will be suppressed for awhile.

Of course, peak season for tornadoes is April through early June, so it's almost impossible to say this far in advance whether the core of the severe storm season will be wild or mild. 

Tornado Outbreak Looms In Lower Mississippi Valley

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is warning of a possible
tornado outbreak on Tuesday, especially in areas of this
map that are shaded in orange and red. 

 We normally think of big tornado outbreaks and springtime creatures, but there is a "second season" for tornadoes in the late all and winter. 

Tornado outbreaks this time of year are not nearly as common as they are in the spring.  But they do happen. And, using last December's extreme and horrible tornado outbreaks as an example, winter tornado outbreaks might be getting worse with climate change. 

Which leads me to Tuesday's forecast for places like parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee. 

There's growing confidence that several tornadoes might spin up in this region, and some of them might be quite strong and long-lasting. 

Forecasting tornado outbreaks, even just a day ahead of the event, can be tricky. Sometimes, all the ingredients are there for a bunch of tornadoes and nothing much happens. Or, only a few of the ingredients for tornadoes are there, but all hell breaks loose.

And sometimes, all the ingredients are there and sure enough, chaos reigns.

In this case, the factors that can create a tornado outbreak seem to be coming together. A storm system coming in from the west will pull lots of very wet air from over the Gulf of Mexico into the target region. 

Meanwhile, the storm will begin to cool the upper atmosphere over the lower Mississippi Valley, which would increase instability and encourage thunderstorms 

Additionally, strong winds will scream high overhead. The winds will change direction with height, which encourages supercell thunderstorms that spin. These spinning storms can then send tornados across the landscape. 

In the spring time, the sun is stronger, which means the surface can heat up better. That makes the atmosphere all the more unstable to encourage severe weather. That strong sunshine is missing this time of year, but the strength of the parent storm can overcome the lack of a contribution from the sun.

As noted above, there's also the risk that climate change could make late autumn and winter tornado outbreaks worse.

Whether climate change intensifies or not, we will always have the occasion strong winter storm with fierce upper level winds that can trigger tornadoes in the South. 

However, the air coming from the Gulf of Mexico during these episodes is becoming warmer and more humid with time. That wet air just adds fuel to the fire, possibly making tornado episodes worse. 

I would hope this doesn't lead to months like last December. An outbreak of large tornadoes in and around Kentucky killed 80 people and caused $3.9 billion in damage, according to estimates. 

Less than a week later, a large derecho with as many as 120 embedded tornadoes swept the Midwest as far north as Minnesota, which is extremely rare for December. This second storm caused seven deaths and caused nearly $2 billion in damage.

The storm that is expected to cause Tuesday's tornadoes is likely to bring wind and rain to us here in Vermont on Wednesday, but severe weather is not in the cards.  We might face some minor localized flooding if it rains hard enough, and we could also see some scattered power outages caused by the gusty winds that are in the forecast.

At Least Six Dead In Iowa Tornado Outbreak

Tornado in Iowa Saturday.
Photo from Twitter by
@Bambino2678

At least seven people have died in a swarm of tornadoes that swept across much of Iowa Saturday.

The worst of the twisters started in the southwestern part of the state, went through the southern and eastern suburbs of Des Moines and on northeast of there. The Des Moines Register reported this was the deadliest tornado in Iowa since an EF-5 hit Parkersburg in 2008. 

Six of the dead were in the town of Winterset,  southwest of Des Moines, and those fatalities sadly included two children under the age of five. At least 25 homes there were hit hard by the EF-3 tornado.

A well-known flower farm in Madison County was destroyed, but the couple who own the farm huddled in their home's basement, and the home survived the tornado mostly intact. 

Video on social media showed a large, wedge-shaped tornado sweeping through the rural landscape of southwest and central Iowa. Video taken after the storm showed some houses completely swept away, leaving empty cellar holes. Boards were embedded into the sides of still-standing homes. 

The Iowa twisters were remarkably well forecasted.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center began focusing on Iowa four days before the tornadoes hit, and those forecasts remained consistent until the tornadoes hit.

Unfortunately, they struck populated areas.  Despite the tornado warnings, the storms were not survivable for some. 

Tornadoes do hit Iowa from time to time in March, but usually in the later part of the month. They're rather rare during the first week in March that far north.  Iowa's peak tornado season is from late April through May and into June

There were at least 40 reports of tornadoes in Iowa yesterday, but some of these might be duplicates and will have to be sorted out. Saturday's storm hit less than three months after an unprecedented December tornado outbreak unleashed more than 60 tornadoes on Iowa. 

Unfortunately, this isn't over. 

More tornadoes appear likely later today for parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley, especially in Arkansas and southern Missouri. 

There's a somewhat lesser, but still real chance of tornadoes tomorrow in parts of the Southeast.

WILDFIRES

Meanwhile, other parts of the nation were dealing with early season wildfires.

In the Florida Panhandle, large wildfires have destroyed or damaged several homes and forced the evacuation of thousands of residents, reports the Panama City News Herald.

Hurricane Michael in 2018 leveled pine forests in the region, and all that debris has dried out, especially with a recent lack of rain in the area. The result is some large, destructive fires burning in that area

Thankfully, several days of showers are in the forecast for the Florida Panhandle this week. 

Big grass and wildfires were burning in Oklahoma and Kansas, too.  That region has had several bouts of wildfires this winter amid a drought, and not much rain is in the forecast. . 

Large damaging wildfires raced through Oklahoma and the Florida Panhandle.