Still A Severe Threat Here In Vermont, But A Much Bigger Storm Risk In Midwest

Skies already looked a little chaotic over St. Albans, 
Vermont before 8 a.m. today, hinting at a day that will
bring thunderstorms to the state. A few isolated
storms could turn severe with damaging wind/hail.

 It still looks like we in Vermont could see our first reports of severe thunderstorms of the season today, though the risk still looks fairly marginal.   

That means a few towns could see damaging gusts or large hail this afternoon or early evening, but most of us will escape with more moderate showers and storms, or in some cases nothing at all.

It will still be very much worth keeping an eye to the skies today and heading indoors when there's thunder. Also, if you receive a severe thunderstorm warning or see a particularly nasty looking storm coming, get into a good, sturdy building just to be safe.

At least today's storm threat here in the Green Mountain State doesn't involve large, powerful tornadoes like over in places like Iowa. (More on that problem in a minute).

VERMONT STORMS

The overall forecast today hasn't changed much since yesterday. We have summer like warmth and some humidity in place. A disturbance  coming in from the west is timed nicely - just in time to take advantage of peak heating this afternoon. 

The air over Vermont was already becoming conducive to showers and storms before 8 a.m today. A small downpour  had popped up near Plattsburgh, New York and a little south of St. Albans as of 7:30 a.m today.

The sun's heat will contribute to even more instability, and will work with the disturbance to form those towering thunderstorm clouds this afternoon.

The arrangement and timing of the storms looks pretty random, with no well defined front coming through. The storms will tend to pop up, then some will fade only to be replaced by new ones nearby. 

The best chance of seeing any storms would probably be between about 1:30 to 8:30 p.m, though a few rogue ones could pop up before or after that. 

Those isolated severe storms could also pop up anywhere in Vermont.  The sweet spot for them might be central Vermont, it seems, but even that is iffy. The severe storms will be far and few between. We're still in a marginal risk zone for severe weather. That's the lowest of a five-point alert scale. We'll have to watch to see whether they upgrade us to a level two, but I'm not really holding my breath on that one.  

Rainfall today will range widely. A few places will see nothing. A few other spots, especially this lucky devils that see more than one thunderstorm, will collect well over an inch of rain. I'm guessing many of us will see maybe a quarter inch of rain, maybe a half inch in several spots. 

It's a hit and miss day for sure.   

Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week. A few more afternoon and evening storms could pop up, taking advantage of the summer heat,  but they won't be as widespread as today. 

Thursday's cold front is tentatively looking like it might come through early enough in the day to avoid severe weather, but the timing of it is still open to question. As forecasts evolve, I'm also getting less and less impressed by the strength of the cold front. 

 If anything big happens Thursday, it's more likely the further east and south you go. Stay tuned.

MIDWEST OUTBREAK

Another big storm day in the Midwest, especially in areas
shaded in red and orange. Tornadoes, intense 
thunderstorms, large hail and flooding are a good bet in
those areas. Meanwhile, that dark green over us
here in Vermont forecasts isolated instances of 
severe thunderstorms today. 

Whatever might happen here in Vermont and the rest of northern New England will really be small potatoes compared to what's going on in the middle of the United States. 

A pretty vigorous storm is getting going now around Nebraska.  The organizing storm has already produced about 20 tornadoes over the past couple of days in the central Plains, plus lots of wind and big hail. 

As that storm organizes further today, it will create a nearly perfect environment for powerful storms centered on Iowa. Parts of Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois are also in what is now a moderate risk zone. That's the second highest level on that five point storm alert scale.

There were already tornado warnings early this morning between Omaha, Nebraska and Sioux City, Iowa, plus lots of severe storm and flash flooding warnings across parts of Iowa.

This initial blast of bad weather will move on this morning, making way for new supercells to form. Some tornadoes in a zone between northern Missouri and southeastern Minnesota could become strong and long lasting.  

I wouldn't be surprised if ultimate, a few dozen tornadoes are reported when all this is said and done

NOAA Storm Prediction Center meteorologists also think the storms will eventually form into a line of intense weather with straight line winds of 75 to 90 mph. 

Meanwhile, heavy rains could spread the flooding we're seeing now near Omaha and Des Moines to spread through much of Minnesota and Wisconsin later today and tonight. 

The bottom line is we're seeing yet another very rough weather day in the Midwest. 

Plus, it's not done. A band from central Texas all the way up through western New York and Ontario is under the gun for severe storms tomorrow. Plus, the southern Plains are expecting rough weather Thursday.