New Waves Of Storms (And Heat!) In U.S. Will Vermont Be Included In That?

The severe thunderstorm and tornado risk ramps up
again this week for the nation. This map shows the
biggest risk centered on Kansas today.

 The storms keep rolling along in the United States this weekend and the upcoming week.  As if Houston wasn't enough, multiple rounds of severe weather and tornadoes are ramping up again today and should continue most of the week. 

And, since we're getting closer to summer, dangerous heat is beginning to make inroads, too. 

I'll have a separate update on the Houston mess, so we can get right into the forecast. A Vermont update is further down, after we do the big picture. Spoiler for Vermonters: We hope you like summer. 

TODAY

One always important ingredient for big thunderstorms is heat and humidity, and that will be a thread through this week's storm risk. 

Way down in the South, the heat is horrendous. Miami had a heat index of 112 degrees yesterday, by far the worst on record for May in that neck of the woods. 

Parts of Texas will roast in 100 degree heat today. 

Some of that heat is feeding north toward a storm organizing somewhere near western Nebraska. Some of that heat is heading north toward Kansas, where it will encounter the effects of that storm. The result is an expected outbreak of intense storms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put central Kansas under a moderate risk of severe weather today. That's the second highest in a five point alert scale, meaning this is pretty serious. The biggest risk is straight line winds which could reach hurricane force in some areas along with giant hail. 

Tornadoes are also pretty likely, but I question whether it will be a big outbreak like Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa suffered in late April. 

Tomorrow's severe threat once again focuses on Kansas and Nebraska, so they're not out of the woods yet.

An even bigger and more widespread severe weather outbreak seems likely Tuesday as heat and humidity continues to stream into the eastern half of the U.S.  It'll interact with storminess coming in from the west to set off a big severe zone from Oklahoma to Michigan.

So far, it looks like Missouri and Iowa might take the brunt of things on Tuesday, but of course the forecast might also be adjusted. 

Severe storms and tornadoes are likely to continue in different parts of the Plains, Midwest and east Wednesday, Thursday and probably beyond that, too. 

The preliminary tornado count for this year is 820, which is pretty pretty far above normal for this point in the spring, and it looks like we will add to that list of twisters in the coming days. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Lilac season is in full swing in Vermont now, but it
will probably go by really fast due to hot, humid
weather for the season this week. There's
  a chance of severe storms this week, too, but 
things will have to line up just right for that to happen.

So far in 2024, Vermont is one of only three states to have not reported any severe thunderstorm winds, damaging hail or tornadoes. (New Hampshire and Maine are the other two states).

There might - or might not - have been local wind damage from isolated strong storms last week in Vermont, but there have been no reports from the public, so the count is zero. 

That might change this week, as we have some chances of severe weather. But whether or not that actually happens depends. Things need to come together just right to do that. 

As noted, heat and humidity are a key ingredient for strong storms. We're pretty confident it will be hot and humid for the season this week.  Temperatures should get into the 80s Monday through Wednesday, and maybe into Thursday. The humidity will gradually creep up, too. It might actually get to 90 in a couple spots Wednesday. 

The question is whether the oppressive weather for this time of year will touch off anything major. 

A weak disturbance on Tuesday has a shot at interacting with the summer warmth to set off some storms. If that happens, one or two might be briefly strong to severe. It's impossible to know exactly where this might occur, but if it does, it's more likely in northern Vermont. 

As it looks now, Wednesday looks quiet and hot, but just the fact it will be so summery could yield some mountain updrafts that generate local storms. Probably nothing widespread, but one or two places could get blasted by a torrential downpour and gusty winds.

The wild card is Thursday. A cold front will be coming in by then. If it passes through in the morning, the chances of severe weather are low. If it comes through in the afternoon or evening, that will give the atmosphere a chance to become much more unstable. Then, thunderstorms would have an opportunity to become strong to severe. Stay tuned! 

By Friday, the air will have become much cooler and drier, which would prevent any further big thunderstorms.