Day 2 Of Severe Weather Outbreak Was Bad Again, Today, Day 3 Might Be Even Worse

The United States at the moment is dealing with its second large tornado outbreak in a month, and today will be just as bad as the previous two.  

Today's severe storm and tornado risk covers a broad part 
of the U.S. Areas in orange and especially red are
most at risk. Note the dark green in southern Vermont,
which denotes the possibility of an isolated severe
storm or two this afternoon. 

On Monday, as you recall, tornadoes targeted Oklahoma and surrounding areas, killing at least one person. Another man in devastated Barnsdall, Oklahoma is missing. 

Tuesday was the second day of this outbreak, this time targeting parts of southern Michigan, along with Indiana and Ohio. 

Today, a huge area is under the gun for severe weather and tornadoes. The most dangerous area will be from northeast Texas through Kentucky, with a particular area of concern right near the Mississippi River in Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky.

A low risk of severe weather extends all the way to us here in Vermont, but we're expecting nothing nearly as dramatic as what will happen in the Midwest today. 

More on Vermont's weather further down in this post.  

TUESDAY RECAP 

A rare tornado emergency was declared as a large twister swept through areas southeast of Kalamazoo, Michigan. The city of Portage was hit by two tornadoes space around an hour apart. One of the twisters slammed a large FedEx distribution center, tearing off much of the roof and collapsing walls.  

The tornado trapped about 50 people in the wreckage of the building,  but they were later rescued without serious injury. 

It's always bad when a tornado hits a mobile home park, and one was hit in Portage. Nearly 20 mobile homes were destroyed and another 170 or so damaged. Up to 20 injuries were reported there, but there were thankfully no deaths, and the injuries do not appear to be life-threatening.  

The tornado also leveled a strip mall.  Employees at a Pizza Hut took shelter in a walk-in freezer while the building collapsed around them.  They ended up with no major injuries. 

In total, about 30 tornado reports came in from Tuesday's storms, on top of the 25 reported Monday. Those figures will change as meteorologists investigate tornado damaged areas to determine whether destruction in particular areas was caused by tornadoes or intense thunderstorm winds.   

The Washington Post says Tuesday was the 13th day in a row in which tornadoes were reported in the United States. Today will almost definitely be the 14th. 

TODAY

Tornadoes, as noted, are all but certain today, but how many and how strong they get depends on a variety of factors. If an intense squall line forms, there will be embedded tornadoes in that, but the greater threat in the mid-Mississippi valley into the Ohio valley would be intense straight line winds.

If that squall line isn't as organized, more supercells with possible strong tornadoes would form in the region. In any event, people in a huge area from Dallas to Cincinnati ought to stay weather aware today. 

The threat of severe storms will continue in the Southeast tomorrow. After that, the risk of tornadoes anywhere in the U.S. will diminish, but not entirely go away Friday through the weekend. 

VERMONT

Much like on Sunday, a wave of rain was moving through the Green Mountain State this morning. But this afternoon, things might evolve differently than they did over the weekend. 

After that goes, through, an area of drier air comes in. That will open up the atmosphere for some heating from the sun, which might increase instability. The drier air won't be gone dry. And there's some strong winds aloft. All this could be fuel for afternoon showers and storms, and one or two might be on the severe side.

This is where expectations for this afternoon gets tricky. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, in their forecast discussion, said that if the incoming air is too dry, very few showers and thunderstorms will form.  If the air coming in is more moist than expected, an overcast will hold firm, preventing instability and limiting the chances of thunderstorms 

It the afternoon air is sort of mid-range in terms of dryness, that would be a window for an isolated thunderstorm or two to produce damaging wind gust or large hail.

We know that this won't be anything widespread. If anybody gets hit be a nasty storm, it will be just a couple locations at most.  The most likely zone for this would be Addison County and western Rutland county. 

Elsewhere, in northern Vermont, there could be a few thunderstorms, just a chance, but they shouldn't be severe.