Piling On, NOAA Also Says Hurricane Season To Be Nuts

We've listened to a parade of forecasters all this spring say the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is going to be gonzo crazy. 

Hurricane Ian menacing Florida in 2021.  NOAA
Thursday joined the chorus of forecasters 
expecting an extremely busy hurricane season. 

Now, a week before the official start of the hurricane season, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is also remarkably confident this hurricane season is one to worry about. 

They give 2024 an 85 percent chance of being busier than average, a 10 percent chance of being pretty normal, and a 5 percent chance that it will be quieter than usual. 

NOAA and National Weather Service meteorologists and hurricane experts rarely give such a confident forecast for an entire storm season. This is the highest confidence forecast NOAA has ever issued in a May outlook, said NOAA Director Rick Spinrad. 

Their forecast calls for 17 to 25 named storms - which are tropical storms and hurricanes with at least 39 mph winds. They call for 8 to 13 hurricanes - winds of at least 74 mph; and four to seven major hurricanes, which have 111 mph winds or higher. 

The average for a season is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. 

Says NOAA:

"The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation."

Forecasters also expect more than the usual number of disturbances moving westward off the African coast into the Atlantic Ocean. These disturbances often form into tropical storms and hurricanes. 

It's rare to have this many factors come together to favor tropical storms, which seems to be giving NOAA that ominous forecast confidence. 

NOAA's forecast is virtually the same as other forecasts from numerous other sources this spring. A closely watched Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued in April predicts 23 named storms, and at least 11 hurricanes. 

NOAA's hurricane forecast, and that of most other forecasters, would bring us close to the record for the busiest season. That was in 2020, when there were 30 named storms.  That year,  the entire United States Atlantic Coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine was under some sort of hurricane or tropical storm warning at one time or another. 

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 but tropical storms can sometimes form before and after that timeframe. As of this morning there was a disturbance near Hispaniola that hurricane forecasters are watching, but as of today they doubt it will amount to anything.  

What will matter most this year, like every year,  is where hurricanes go once they've formed. The sheer number of storms expected this year makes the chances of one or more hitting the United States greater than it otherwise would be.

Still, the best scenario would be for hurricanes to curve northward well before reaching the United States. That was generally, but not exclusively the pattern last year. 

This year, our luck might run out. I've seen a few forecasts that would favor more westward paths that would bring hurricanes closer to the East or Gulf coasts. 

Up here in Vermont, we're too far inland to have much of a risk from a direct hit from a major hurricane. The last time that happened was in 1938.

However, the Green Mountain State is very much at risk from heavy rains and serious flooding if a dying hurricane or its remnants pass overhead or nearby. 

The last tropical storm to hit us was former Hurricane Isaias on August 4, 2020 which was still a tropical storm on its path from roughly Albany, New York to Rutland, then Newport, Vermont.  Two to four inches of rain fell in western Vermont during that episode, but a drought that preceded Isaias prevented much flooding. 

Winds of up to 50 mph caused power outages in eastern Vermont. 

However, we're rarely not so lucky in those circumstances. We all remember the epic floods from Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. We also suffered from quite a bit of flooding and wind damage in Tropical Storm Floyd in 1999.

After the floods of last summer, which were not caused by any tropical storms, we don't need a disaster like that a second year in a row. Hopefully the hurricanes and tropical storms we're expecting this year stay far from Vermont.