Update: Kansas, Oklahoma REALLY Under The Gun For Tornadoes Today

Dangerous day in the central Plains today. The moderate
risk zone later got an upgrade to high risk as 
forecasters fear there might be intense, long
tracked tornadoes in this region later today. 

UPDATE: 

After I wrote the narrative below, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk zone - the highest severe storm and risk category - for parts of central and north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas. 

Cities under the high risk are Oklahoma City, Norman, Moore, and Norman, Oklahoma.

Moore already has an ugly history with tornadoes, having suffered two EF-5 twisters, the most intense and dangerous kind, since 1999. Moore has also had other, less intense tornadoes in that time frame.

Norman is the headquarters for Storm Prediction Center, which manages severe weather and tornado dangers. The local National Weather Service office that covers a broad swath of central Oklahoma is also located in Norman. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As I highlighted on Saturday, the threat of tornadoes in the middle of the nation ramps up today. It's worth an update because tornado experts are definitely more nervous than usual. 

THE FORECAST

The chances of particularly intense, long lasting and highly destructive tornadoes is if anything higher than it was back on April 26 and 28 when more than 200 tornadoes caused intense destruction in Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Kansas. Five people died in that outbreak. 

It's unknown whether there will be that many tornadoes this time, though the risk of quite a few tornadoes lasts from this afternoon through Thursday in parts of the Plains, Midwest, Southeast and East Coast.  

Updated map showing high risk tornado and severe
storm area today in Oklahoma and Kansas.

 For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all of central Oklahoma and southern Kansas in a moderate risk of severe storms and tornadoes today. That's the second highest alert level on a five point scale, but meteorologists point out it's sort of at the top end of  a moderate risk. 

"Multiple intense, long-track tornadoes are expected, especially in parts of southern Kansas into Oklahoma," the Storm Prediction Center, or SPC said in its early Monday morning forecast assessment. 

 The SPC toyed with the idea of upgrading the moderate risk designation to high risk, the most intense alert level. However, as of early this morning the meteorologists at the center still had some questions as to how many intense tornadoes will develop today. 

(EDITORS NOTE: As the update above says, the SPC has decided to go with a high risk alert for tornadoes today in parts of the region, given the favorable environment for strong, long-lasting tornadoes.)

Those meteorologists left the door open to declare a high risk day with updates later this morning. 

High risk severe storm and tornado designations are rare, usually happening on average just once a year. Some  years have none, and others have a handful. The last time the Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk alert was on March 31, 2023. 

That resulting outbreak last year resulted in 136 tornadoes with 23 deaths. 

For today's outbreak, I guess the best hope is that any strong tornadoes that do form avoid large towns and cities, and stay in open country instead.

Metropolitan areas most at risk this afternoon and night are Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Lawton, Oklahoma and Wichita, Kansas.  The risk of tornadoes extends well south, north and east of these cities.

ADDED RISKS

Here's a couple more reasons to be worried about this likely tornado outbreak. 

The threat continues well into the night, after dark. Nighttime tornadoes are in general more dangerous than those that hit during the day. Although you should take shelter immediately when hearing a tornado warning, people tend to seek visual confirmation that a twister is coming. 

You don't see approaching tornadoes nearly as well at night, so some people might try to take shelter too late, when the tornado is upon them. Also, people might be sleeping or otherwise unable to hear warnings. 

Since this promises to be a particularly big outbreak, hordes of storm chasers are now converging on Oklahoma and Kansas. While most (but not all!) experienced storm chasers are pretty safe, many amateurs don't know what they're doing and can get in real trouble. 

They don't get out of the way in time, or they drive recklessly to get near a tornado, or clots of chasers clog roads, blocking escape routes for others. 

STORM FATIGUE

This has been a particularly busy tornado season. According to preliminary figures, the nation has already seen 586 tornadoes this year as of this morning. At least 300 of them hit in April.

The national death toll for tornadoes so far in 2024 is relatively low considering how many twisters we've seen. So far 13 people have lost their lives in tornadoes this year. 

We can only hope that our relative good luck on that score continues. An excellent warning system has kept the deaths low compared to past storms. But there's no guarantee that will continue. 

I'm sure people in the Plains and Midwest are sick of tornado warnings, too, as there have been so many. 

It'll continue past today. 

Tuesday, the tornado risk zone shifts to places in and near the Ohio Valley. Wednesday, a huge area centered on the middle Mississippi Valley is under the gun, then it's the middle and southern Atlantic coast and Texas that deals with the rough weather on Thursday.

Up here in Vermont it'll be showery off an on Wednesday through Sunday, with nice dry breaks in between. We will escape the severe weather. At this point the worst we can expect is a possible rumble of thunder and a brief downpour or two later in the week. All good.