It's Ba-a-ck! Canadian Wildfire Smoke Making Inroads (*Not In Vermont Yet)

A thick, smoky haze engulfed St. Albans on June 25, 2023
as winds blew wildfire smoke southward from Canada.
Fires are starting in Canada again, and we might have
another smoky summer like last year as a result. 

 Air quality alerts were in effect in much of Minnesota and Wisconsin this morning as wildfire smoke from Canada drifted into the two states behind a cold front. 

So yes, last year's acrid "gifts" from Canada are back. 

Fires are burning in British Columbia and Alberta, generating smoke that's spreading across much of central Canada and dipping down into the north-central United States.     

The fires near Fort Nelson, in northeastern British Columbia forced the evacuation of 3,500 people.

A wildfire near Fort McMurray, an oil hub in northeastern Alberta put residents there on alert for possible evacuations. 

That had to make the 66,000 residents there especially antsy, with memories still fresh of the 2016 calamity there. In May, 2016, a massive wildfire roared through Fort McMurray, killing two people and destroying 2,400 homes and businesses. The blaze was the most expensive disaster in Canadian history. 

This weekend, a few well-timed showers helped temporarily tamp down the fire near Fort McMurray. More showers are in the forecast and shifting winds are driving flames away from the city for now.   

The fires, though widespread in Canada, are is far not as extensive as they were this time last year. Which means there's not quite as much smoke being generated.  In turn, that means the big smoke outs we had last year in the United States aren't repeating. At least not yet. 

LOOKING AHEAD

There's plenty of time for wildfires to grow, as they can last all summer and into the autumn. 

We also have some ominous signs for wildfires this summer in Canada.

Last month, Canada's government warned of a potentially explosive fire season, citing drought in parts of British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario. Additionally, unseasonably warm temperatures melted snow prematurely, allowing the landscape to dry out earlier and faster and more completely than it otherwise would.

The same thing happened last year, when 37 million acres of Canadian forest burned. That was easily the worst fire season in the nation's history.  

Another wildcard is "zombie fires." Those are fires from last summer that spend the winter smoldering underground all winter. 

If hot dry weather hits, those zombies could come back to life, causing new big, destructive wildfires. There's evidence that's starting to happen in Alberta. 

CLIMATE CHANGE ROLE

Canadian government officials say climate change has made wildfires more likely in Canada than they once were. 

I also need to detour into a bit of a rant here.

Climate change denial types are all over social media, thinking they have a winning argument.  They're mocking a non-existent notion that "leftists" think climate change causes wildfires.   As if those worried about climate change think forests just spontaneously burst into flames if it gets too hot out. 

To be clear, nobody thinks climate change "causes" fires.  Lightning, downed power lines, arson and stupid people are major causes. The problem is climate change often makes those fires worse than they otherwise would be.

If climate change makes things hotter and drier, the fires will more likely get out of control and spread more widely. Climate change can turn nothing burger local blazes into widespread, dangerous conflagrations. 

VERMONT OUTLOOK

So far, unlike last year, there are few if any fires in Quebec and other eastern Canadian provinces.  If that trend continues, we in Vermont are less likely to see dense smoke like we did last year.  Instead, the western Canadian fires will probably occasionally make our skies hazy, but the pollution in general might not be as bad as last year. 

All bets are off, though, if Quebec and Ontario burst into flames like last year.  Could happen this summer. 

As for that smoke currently in the upper Midwest, forecasts don't bring much of it our way once that cold front makes its way through New England during the middle of the week. We might see a bit of haze in the sky, but I don't anticipate a big smoke attack.