Wild Storm Creating Midwest Blizzard, Big Severe Weather Outbreak; Vermont To See Wind, Rain, Snow, Temperature Weirdness

The National Weather Service website home page
is getting colorful with lots of weather warnings
due to a wild, strengthening storm. This map
should get even more colorful later today
through tomorrow with a variety of
dangerous weather expected.

The big storm in the middle of the nation is underway, with widespread blizzard conditions in the upper Midwest. Worse, the storm is set to cause a huge severe weather outbreak over a wide area from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.  

The storm is still likely to give those of us in Vermont, and surrounding states, a bunch of wind, rain and wildly fluctuating temperatures. More on that in a bit, but first the big picture of the storm. 

BLIZZARD

A huge area encompassing the eastern half of South Dakota, the southern half of Minnesota, most of Iowa and Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan are under a blizzard warning. 

They're already calling it a historic storm, as some places in Minnesota might get over two feet of snow. A enormous patch of real estate across the upper Midwest is expecting at least a foot.  Up in northeastern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan, up to three feet of snow might come down. A few forecasts I've seen call for up to four feet in spots in the UP.

All this is either getting propelled or about to be propelled by gusts that will exceed 50 mph, maybe making it to 60 mph in a few spot. 

South of the blizzard zone, high winds are raking he Plains from Nebraska down through Texas. Wildfires have been plaguing that region in recent weeks due to drought and strong winds. Today is just going to make matters worse there, especially in Texas and New Mexico. 

SEVERE WEATHER

The biggest threat from this storm is severe weather and tornadoes over a wide area. I keep saying "wide" or "enormous" areas, but this storm is so powerful its influence is being felt practically everywhere.

The storm's intense cold front will create a derecho-type situation with widespread strong wind. Some tornadoes might be embedded in this squall line. And a few supercell thunderstorms might form ahead of the cold front to also create a few tornadoes. 

The Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley and the Ohio Valley look to be under the greatest threat today. 

Tomorrow looks like things might get even worse. The action Monday will be along the East Coast from southern New York to Florida. A zone from Maryland to South Carolina is under a moderate risk of severe weather, the second highest of five alert levels. 

Ahead of the cold front, supercells look to develop in the Carolinas and southern Virginia, with the risk of strong tornadoes.

Then the actual cold front slams in, with a very windy line of thunderstorms.  Widespread straight line wind damage looks to be the primary threat from this line of storms, but there could be a few tornadoes embedded with that line of rough weather.  

VERMONT EFFECTS

Though we won't have anything as dramatic as three-foot-deep blizzards or strong tornadoes, the weather is going to put on a bit of a show locally.  

Unlike in similar storms, the warm front coming through tonight won't have much moisture to work with. There might be bits of snow, sleet or rain later this afternoon and evening in spots, but nothing substantial. Also, some of the sheltered valleys of eastern Vermont might see a little freezing drizzle through early tomorrow morning 

The winds will really pick up overnight and Monday. The worst winds tomorrow should be over the northern Adirondacks over in New York, where gusts could reach 60 mph or so.

A wind advisory is up later tonight and through tomorrow in the Champlain Valley with hang on to your hat gusts to 45 or even 55 mph in spots. It'll be windy in the rest of Vermont. But so far, not quite windy enough to trigger a wind advisory. 

Temperatures will warm overnight in the Champlain Valley and that will spread into the rest of the state during the day. Highs should get to near 60 degrees by afternoon. 

I'm not going to get into specifics on when some showers might race through from time to time tomorrow, Just know they might happen, pretty much whenever, But parts of the day will be dry. So enjoy that warmth!

It'll be that cold front which is will be causing so much trouble elsewhere that will really make us take notice. It'll blast through in the evening with gusts of wind, brief torrential downpours, maybe a rumble or two of thunder. 

The rain shouldn't last long enough to create any real flooding problems. Just some rises on area rivers. The usual March rainy weather drill. 

After that, temperatures will crash and fast. By the time you get up Tuesday morning, all that water will have frozen. Many of us will have a little snow on the ground. Winds will crank from the northwest, so we might need another wind advisory for Tuesday. 

Temperatures probably won't get above freezing Tuesday. Maybe the same for Wednesday, too, But it'll get a tad warmer by the end of the week with seasonable March weather.  

Friday Evening Update: Volatile U.S. Weather, Quick Forecast Changes Here In Vermont, Icy Overnight?

A tornado tearing up buildings today in
southern Michigan. More volatile weather
is creating the risk of additional tornadoes
over a large area of the Midwest into 
this evening. Photo via Facebook/
Michigan Native Photography 

We're doing a quick Friday evening update today because the combination of near record warm humid air coming up from the south, lots of frigid air still lurking in Canada, and storminess in between is keeping U.S. weather volatile. 

It's also making the weather change fast here in Vermont, and meteorologists really need to stay on their toes over this. 

First, the national picture.

TORNADOES 

The storms have already turned tragic. A mother and daughter died last evening in Major County, Oklahoma, northwest of Oklahoma City, when a tornado hit their van. 

The mom was on the phone with the rest of her family at the time to warn them to take shelter from the approaching tornado

The daughter was a a seventh grader at a local school.

There were 11 reports of tornadoes in the central and southern Plains last evening. 

This evening looks even more volatile. Tornadoes are possible from southern Wisconsin to northeast Texas, with northeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas the principle targets.

Also, a tornado or tornadoes unexpectedly developed in southern Michigan this afternoon. Early reports are this twisters seriously damaged some buildings, including a Menard's. 

Additionally, ssome more severe weather is possible from western New York to central Texas tomorrow.  

Hopefully we do not see any more deaths from this robust early season severe weather outbreak

VERMONT

Ice accumulation map for early tomorrow. Areas of the
Northeast Kingdom and southeast Adirondacks can
expect areas of icy roads. The freezing rain looks
like it will be a little more extensive 
over in New Hampshire

We've got no severe thunderstorms or tornados in our forecast. However, yet another round of light freezing rain is in the cards for the Northeast Kingdom late tonight. 

 Forecasters have increased the amount of rain that will be coming through, so a winter weather advisory is in effect for most places east of the Green Mountains and north of White River Junction. 

Most of the freezing rain would come through between midnight and dawn. 

Those of you who end up with icy weather will only have to deal with slick roads. There won't be any issues with trees or power lines getting too weighed down.

Northwest Vermont will get a little more rain than expected too, but it won't freeze there. Southern Vermont will only get some light rain, 

The rain will tend to taper off during the middle of the day. Strong south winds are still in the cards for the Champlain Valley. 

High temperatures in the 40s to low 50s should hit by later in the afternoon, especially if we see some breaks in the clouds. Another round of showers should come through in the evening.

I'll have much more in tomorrow morning's post. 

Winter Storm Making Travel Weekend Miserable In U.S., Especially Midwest

A must-vehicle crash amid on Interstate 70 in western
Indiana on Saturday. A huge swath of the Midwest
is under winter storm warnings today as heavy
snow delays travel for many. 

While we here in Vermont await a minor bout of winter weather tomorrow, the same storm is spreading snow over a huge area of the Midwest. 

Since so many people are traveling this holiday weekend, the Scrooge mood has hit early for many. 

The winter storm warnings Saturday stretched from eastern South Dakota to Michigan. 

The relative center of this winter weather zone is Chicago, The windy city serves as a hub for American, United, Frontier, Southwest and Spirit airlines. 

You can imagine the mess.

As of Saturday morning, more than 1,000 flights were canceled at Chicago airports, CBS News reported. I imagine things later got even worse for flights in and out of Chicago   as heavy snow with very poor visibility lasted all afternoon. 

As of 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, FlightAware said the number of flights today canceled at just O'Hare was 1,038.

For the U.S. as a whole, FlightAware said there had been 2,166 flight cancelations and 18,322 delays as of late this afternoon. So if someone you expected to arrive at your house today says it won't happen, they're probably not lying. It's nothing personal. Just the weather.  

Of course, highways are slow, too. As many as 30 vehicles crashed into each other on slick Interstate 70 in western Indiana. Social media is rife with images of cars in ditches and vehicles with smashed and dented fenders, or worse.   

The winter storm warning affected 32 million people and winter weather advisories along the storms edges covered another 20 million, USA Today reported. 

The snow is expected to dwindle off and end by late tonight in places from Chicago west, and during the morning in locations farther east, like northern Indiana and most of Michigan. 

A new winter storm is expected to hit a large swath of the Midwest and Northeast on Tuesday.  

"Corn Sweat" (It's A Thing!) Worsening Midwest Heat Dome This Week

"Corn sweat" is making a spell of heat and super high
humidity in the Midwest even worse. A squirt of that
steamy air is due here in Vermont/New England at
the end of this week. 

The dreaded "heat dome" is taking up residence over the middle of the United States. 

Sinking air under the high pressure will compress the air, heating it up. The hot sun will add to it. Weak winds from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean will turn the air disgustingly humid over wide areas of the Midwest. 

Heat warnings and advisories today extend from South Dakota and Minnesota southward along a roughly 500 mile wide band sort of following the Mississippi River all the way to the Gulf Coast.

The heat index could reach 110 degrees or higher in some areas under the heat alert. It's nasty. 

The actual temperatures generally won't be near record highs, but the dew points, a rough measure of how humid it is and how much moisture is in the air, will be as high as they can get. 

The timing of this heat dome could not be worse, because, something called "corn sweat" will make the humidity in the U.S. agricultural belt even more oppressive and dangerous than it otherwise would be. 

The Washington Post describes it this way: 

 "Like a person breathing, corn exhales water vapor through its leaves - a process called evapotranspiration - which exacerbates humidity in agricultural regions during the summer."

.........According to Iowa state climatologist Justin Glisan, this is the time of the year when humidity contributions from corn sweat are highest - around the time to tasseling and pollination, when the flower emerges from the corn stalk."

Under the corn sweat-saturated heat dome, some areas of the Midwest could see dew points near 80 degrees, something you often see along the Gulf Coast in July, but not nearly as often in places like Illinois or Iowa. But, occasionally, during corn sweat season, it gets that bad. 

The high humidity, aided by this corn sweat, could help add to the long list of destructive flooding events we've had in the U.S. this month. 

Weather disturbances moving along the northern periphery of the heat dome will tap into that incredible reservoir of humidity and touch off the risk of flash flooding in the Great Lakes region over the next two or three days, and possibly in parts of the Northeast toward Friday or Saturday 

VERMONT EFFECTS

This morning was pretty cool, with most of Vermont down in the 40s, as expected. There might have been some upper 30s in a couple spots in the Northeast Kingdom, based on reported readings of 35 degrees in Saranac Lake, New York, and 38 degrees in Whitefield, New Hampshire. The Champlain valley stayed above 50 degrees.

One note to demonstrate how climate change has altered "normal."  In the century ending in the 1980s, Burlington would get into the 40s on at least one or two July nights most years. That began to gradually change in the 1990s.  Including last night, Burlington has not had a July morning under 50 degrees since 2015.

That's not to say it will never be in the 40s on a Burlington July night again,  but climate change has been one factor in keeping summer nights warmer than they once were.   

Today and tonight will remain cool.  More sunshine than yesterday will help boost today's highs well into the 70s. Still a little below normal for this time of year but still nice. Most of us will get down into the 45 to 55 degree range tonight. 

Winds will gradually shift and come from the west and southwest, eventually bringing that hot, and very humid air - aided a little by that corn sweat - into New England Thursday into Friday. 

Wednesday will be warmer, and by Thursday, it's full steam (literally!) ahead with the heat and humidity. It should make it to 90 degrees or more in many Vermont valleys Thursday and possibly Friday.

We'll have to watch the first in a series of weak cold fronts that could touch off some strong thunderstorms either Thursday night or Friday. 

A series of weak cold fronts will continue to gradually temper the heat, though it probably will stay warmer than normal into the early part of next week, 

After that - as we've been saying for days -  that heat dome will shift west, probably keeping New England on the cooler side as we get to August.  

Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak Upper Midwest Today, We In Vermont Could See Severe Storms Later Tuesday

Widespread severe storms and likely tornadoes are 
likely today, especially in red and orange areas 
on this map. 

The Upper Midwest if bracing for a rough day today of potentially strong tornadoes, giant hail and destructive winds as the weather set up is almost ideal for a severe weather outbreak in that neck of the woods. 

That severe weather is forecast to some extent migrate toward the Northeast, maybe affecting Vermont later tomorrow. More on that in a bit. First, today's Midwest threats.

TORNADO RISK DETAILS

Even before our storm really got going, things were looking ominous Sunday evening. Some supercells spit out a handful of large tornadoes in western and central Nebraska.

Some pretty strong storms were ongoing early this morning in eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota.

These are just a preview. The main show will get going this afternoon

The area under the biggest threat for dangerous weather today includes most of Wisconsin and Iowa, southern and central Minnesota and northwest Illinois.  

Major cities most likely to be under the gun are Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota; Madison, Wisconsin; Des Moines, Iowa and Rockford, Illinois.

A somewhat lesser but real threat extends southwestward all the way down to Texas.  

We know we'll see severe storms and tornadoes in the Upper Midwest today, but we don't 100 percent know exactly how they'll evolve.

If supercells manage to form and maintain themselves ahead of the main line of storms later today, then we end up with the risk of strong, long-lasting tornadoes plowing through Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

That scenario is a maybe/maybe not. But if these dangerous supercells erupt, they'll go from nothingburgers to extremely dangerous monsters in minutes. The National Weather Service office in the Minneapolis area is not mincing words in their forecast discussion:

"The takeaway from today's severe storm potential is to remain vigilant of the potential for storms to go up quickly. This may mean checking your phone more often or keeping an eye to the sky, but don't let your guard down in this environment."

 If, instead, the main line of storms exerts itself more, there might not necessarily be those supercells out ahead of the storm  This second scenario is still bad news, as there will be zones of destructive straight line winds and quite a few embedded tornadoes in this mess.

The most likely outcome  today is a combination of what I described above. The main question will be how many supercells form ahead of the main blast of storms. 

TUESDAY'S STORM ADVANCE

Tuesday's severe storm risk area is in yellow, with the
orange area at a somewhat higher risk. Note how the
yellow risk area extends into parts of Vermont, 

By Tuesday, the main threat from this dynamic storm heads east. The storm center itself will race up into central Quebec, but its powerful cold front will press east into the Great Lakes. 

Tuesday's threat area runs from southern Quebec and Ontario, then southwestward through northwest New England, the eastern Great Lakes, northern Ohio Valley then all the way down to central Texas. 

The greatest threat looks go from central Ohio, through northwest Pennsylvania and on into western and central New York.  

While there might be a couple tornadoes in this area, the main threat is damaging winds and large, destructive hail.

As noted, the severe threat extend into Quebec and northwest New England, so that puts Vermont in play. Details next:

VERMONT THREAT

This daffodil looks completely defeated and possibly 
dead after Sunday's snow in St. Albans, but....

Before we get into the severe storm threat, a final word or two on Sunday's snow.

A couple places got an impressive amount of snow. A high elevation spot in Greensboro reported .1 inches of snow. Brownington reported 3.5 inches.  

Here in St. Albans, it was striking how snowy and miserable it was in the early afternoon.

 By evening, it was a downright pleasant spring evening, with sunshine and relatively mild air. Go figure.

Today, by the way, will be gorgeous, with sunshine and temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Enjoy!

Now onto our next threat. 

But same daffodil three hours after above photo was taken
shows a nice recovery. This daffodil, and the rest of
them in the gardens, might have to endure some
severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening in northwest Vermont.

South winds ahead of that approaching cold front will throw a squirt of warm, somewhat humid air into Vermont. 

 Most of the day will actually be nice with highs reaching well into the 70s, with maybe an 80 degree reading or two in a couple of Vermont's more "tropical" towns. 

Dew points - a measure of how humid it will get - should reach the mid 50s to around 60. That's kinda humid for this time of year but not oppressive. 

Thunderstorms thrive on humid air, so the more muggy the air is, the more fuel for these storms. 

So the outlook for the thunderstorms in the humidity category is so-so.  

However, there will be strong winds aloft. Storms that do form can grab that high altitude air and shove it down to the surface, where we are. That's why there's the risk of severe storms.  A few of these could have wind gusts to 60 mph or even a little more. 

The heat from sunshine created instability, which is part of the reason why the thunderstorms are likely to be so strong over New York, since they'll hit there in the afternoon.

Timing is such that the storms look like they'll come in very late in the afternoon and evening. For instance, current forecasts have the best chance for thunderstorms in Burlington between 6 and 8 p.m. Tuesday,

By the time they reach Vermont, the storms will be beginning to diminish. At this point, it looks like a few storms still might have enough oomph to be severe generally in an area north and west of a line running from roughly Rutland to Montpelier to east of Newport. 

As the storms head toward southeastern Vermont later in the evening they'll diminish to nothing scary. 

Note that not everyone will get a severe storm. Northwest Vermont is in a level two of a five point risk scale, five being the hair-on-fire top scary alert. Our level two "slight risk" means scattered severe storms are possible, but they'll tend to be relatively short-lived and not terribly widespread.

So, just keep your eye to the sky Tuesday evening if you're in northwest Vermont and head inside if you receive a severe thunderstorm warning or see ominous skies to the west and north. 

The cold front might also produce some fairly strong winds after the thunderstorms go by.  These winds won't be associated with any thunderstorms, but they could cause very isolated power outages in a  few spots.

Unlike the cold front we saw this past weekend, it won't get nearly cold enough for snow.  Instead, Wednesday looks bright, refreshingly cool and breezy.  

Thursday Morning Update: New Weather Pattern Spells Trouble For Nation's Middle, But Lets Us In Vermont Off The Hook

This patch of almost ready for prime time daffodils
in St. Albans, Vermont survived Wednesday's day
long snow showers just fine. 

 Well, that was fun yesterday. 

It pretty much snowed all day, at least where I was, but it being well into April, it amounted to what I'd call white rain. 

In other words, the snow melted on contact, even grassy surfaces which still can tend to collect snow this time of year. It amounted to a bit of beneficial water for those new daffodils blooming out there. 

Go up slightly in elevation and the snow did stick, at least a little. 

I know it snowed pretty hard on the mountain summits of the central and northern Green Mountains, but I haven't seen many accumulation reports yet. Jay Peak got three to six inches of snow, less than the foot some forecasts had called for. 

For now, the snow is (mostly) done for the season. On to spring

NEW WEATHER PATTERN

After a relative lull, almost daily severe storms, floods
and tornadoes will strike the middle of the nation
from now probably at least into early May.

The weather pattern has shifted, which turns out to be bad news for much of the United States but good news for us here in Vermont. 

 Dangerous weather will hit parts of the nation almost daily going forward for the next couple of weeks.  

Here in Vermont, things mostly look benign, uneventful and mild enough to keep us happy for the most part. 

There's been a bit of a lull in our national severe weather and tornado season for the past week or so, after some terrible tornado outbreaks in March and early April. 

The severe weather, and flooding are now coming back. They might not be as intense as we saw earlier this month, at least not at first, but we're getting into the heart of tornado season now. So things will get active. 

Here's how it's setting up: 

Storm systems will keep developing just east of the Rocky Mountains and head into the Plains and Midwest. For now, none of these storms will be blockbuster huge, but they'll pull plenty of moisture fro the Gulf. 

That moisture, combined with the spin in the atmosphere created by the low pressure systems, and chillier air trying to come in from the north, will be more than enough to create repeated rounds of severe storms and flooding. 

It's hard to tease out who gets what more than a few days in advance. Today will start the trend with strong storms, maybe some "gorilla hail" and a tornado or two around Iowa and Nebraska.

Gorilla hail is a colloquialism coined by storm chaser Reed Simmer to describe hail that's at least two inches in diameter or greater. Two inch diameter hail is about the size of a lime.  Such hail is obviously dangerous and causes a LOT of damage to cars, roofs, crops and many other objects. 

In any event, the severe weather threat moves on to cover a broad strip from northern Texas through most of Michigan. Again, hail, high winds and maybe a few tornadoes will develop in this zone on Friday. 

Severe weather threats will then continue daily in different areas in the nation's middle and South. Some days will only have a few bad storms, others many. This state of affairs looks like it will go on at least into early May. 

Flooding looks like a sure bet, too with this weather pattern featuring such wet, warm air coming off the Gulf. In the short term, the greatest threat of dangerous flash flooding looks like it will be over the weekend in Arkansas and Missouri. 

VERMONT

This new weather pattern is a good one for Vermont if you don't like wild extremes.

That long series of Midwest storms will end up coming toward or fairly near Vermont, but by the time they get here, they'll be pretty unimpressive.  Most of the time, we'll  have risks of rain and showers every second or third day, but, unless a surprise or two enters the picture, these rainy periods will just be your typical spring showers. 

It looks like this weather pattern will also keep temperatures more or less close to normal or maybe a tad warmer than average for the remainder of April, at least on most days. Normal for this time of year is highs in the 50s to low 60s. 

Each storm might hold a minor surprise to make things interesting, but don't expect big bouts of severe storms, flooding or other super  dangerous stuff. 

This should lead to a long spell of Vermont weather that for the most part will be uneventful, but with maybe some quick surprise moments of relative excitement from time to time. Excitement might be too strong a word, because I don't see anything gobsmacking coming toward us for awhile. 

In general, this weather pattern will keep temperatures near normal around here for the next couple of weeks, with highs in the 50s and 60s. Not bad.  Rainfall will be on the light side, though with springtime showers and thunderstorms possibly thrown in from time to time, there might be some locally heavier downpours or other excitement from time to time. 

Because there will be a series of fronts coming through, there might well be some quick excursions into much above normal temperatures, and back to chilly readings, too.

The first example should arrive this weekend.  As the first of those disturbances arrives, there could be some loud but not severe thunderstorms Friday night, especially the further north and west you go in Vermont. 

There could be some decent downpours with a couple storms, but most places north of Route 2 should only receive a quarter inch of rain, with less than that the further south you go.

Depending upon how much sun breaks through Saturday, many spots could also top 70 degrees. A few computer models put us well into the 70s, so we'll see.

By Sunday,  though, it will be chilly again with below normal highs in the 48 to 54 degree range and a pretty hard freeze by Monday morning. 

Beyond that, the forecast gets fuzzy, so we'll just leave it at that. Except to say there's no more snow in the forecast, except for maybe a the tippy top of some of the highest mountains. 

One More Day Of Extreme Rains, Tornadoes To Plague Battered U.S Middle, Here In Vermont, Just Minor Weather Hassles

Hopkinsville, Kentucky is one of a great many communities
in the middle of the U.S. suffering flooding as a weeklong
torrential rain storm and severe weather outbreak causes
havoc from Texas to Ohio. Photo by George Walker IV/AP

 The nation's middle needs to get through one more day of torrential flooding rains today and maybe some more tornadoes before relief begins to arrive tomorrow. 

 Since Tuesday, the Midwest and South have endured at least 83 tornadoes, and that number will go up as damage areas are assessed.  

This includes at least 14 twisters on Friday scattered around northeast Texas, Arkansas and southeast Missouri. 

More tornadoes are in the cards today for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and southeast Arkansas.

The real story, as expected, is shifting toward the torrential rains, which will continue unabated today. 

The area under the gun is huge. A long string of flash flood warnings extended from northeast Texas to southern Illinois this morning. Flood watches go from Texas to southwest Pennsylvania.

Already, we tragically have one flood death, that of a nine year boy swept away and drowned in Frankfort, Kentucky.

As in virtually all disasters, the flooding is beginning to hit some towns harder than others in the same region. 

Downtown Hopkinsville, Kentucky was under water as six to 10 inches of rain swamped that area. A dozen people had to be rescued from flooded homes.  Similar water rescues were reported in far flung places like Van Buren Missouri and Texarkana, Texas. Four inches of rain fell in Cape Girardeau, in southeast Missouri within eight hours. Three inches of that came within two hours. 

Hundreds of Kentucky roads were blocked by high water as of Friday. It was still raining hard in Kentucky this morning. 

Friday's rainfall curved a little north and west of where it was centered the day before. It was mostly Arkansas and Kentucky that saw the worst of it. 

Both states will get nailed today by up to nine inches of rain falling on already waterlogged ground. Which will exponentially worsen the flooding.  Today will be the worst day of the flooding as a result.  The torrents will also creep back southeastward back into Tennessee and northwest Mississippi, so the flooding will broaden.

 The stalled weather pattern will finally begin to break down Sunday.  There could be some severe storms and local flooding in the Gulf Coast states Sunday, but it won't be as bad as what we've seen this week from Texas to Ohio. 

Even after the rain stops, the flooding will continue and in some cases worsen in the coming days as larger rivers crest.

FLOODS AND CLIMATE

I can't definitively say that this mess was "caused" by climate change but it's consistent with the planet's warming.

Torrential rains and flooding have always struck the South and Midwest occasionally in the spring storm season. But this storm - and several others earlier this year and in recent years - have proven especially torrential and disastrous. 

For instance, this is Kentucky's second "100 year rainstorm" in less than two months. 

Climate change turbocharges storms, and makes what would have been a heavy rain especially torrential. In other words, the weather setup that is causing this week's flood disaster might have happened anyway without climate change. 

But chances are the rain associated with it is much more intense than it would have been in a cooler world. So the flooding is worse than it otherwise would be.  

VERMONT WEATHER

We're getting remarkably close to daffodil bloom
time in St. Albans, Vermont. Earlier than normal 
once again due to a string of warm springs 
recently. However, chilly weather over the next
several days should temporarily slow our 
progress through the spring green up season.

We continue to be blessed with pretty benign weather here in the Green Mountain State, at least compared to so many other areas of the nation. 

The weather will be far from perfect for the next few days, but you have to expect that around here in early April. 

The good news is forecasters have somewhat backed off from the idea of freezing rain in eastern Vermont and the Green Mountains. 

There could still be patchy ice up high in the mountains.  Swaths of the Northeast Kingdom should also be cold enough for freezing rain this afternoon and tonight. 

Those temperatures will be marginal, so the ice will be patchy.  It'll be enough to make some of the roads up that way treacherous today and tonight, but very likely not enough to create some power outages.

The other trouble spot today is the northern Champlain Valley. Ice won't be a problem there, but gusty winds might. 

A wind advisory is up in the central and northern Champlain Valley from mid-afternoon today to after midnight tonight. Gusts could reach up to 50 mph.  The rain falling during this time period might tamp the wind gusts down a little though. 

Everybody will be rainy this afternoon and tonight. It won't really come down that hard, though, so this won't cause any flooding. It'll make mud season a little worse than it already is, but that's about it. 

Sunday is looking a little more optimistic than earlier forecasts, especially the further north and west you go. After a gray morning that will carry the risk of a little lingering rain, we expect some sun in the afternoon. 

It won't be all that warm with highs mostly in the 40s, but still, not bad for early April. 

The next problem is Monday night and Tuesday, when a potent little disturbance and blast of chilly air invade. There won't be much accumulation, but the timing looks lousy. At this point, some heavy snow showers look like they might come through right during the Tuesday morning commute. 

It'll be enough snow in many areas to make the roads slick and awful.  Stay tuned for updates on that.

After that, the weather pattern is shifting for awhile, anyway, in which we'll see mostly near normal temperatures  and  no blockbuster storms in or near Vermont as we head into the middle of the month. 

Tornado And Flood Tragedy In U.S. Off To A Bad Start, Three More Days Of This; In Vermont, Noisy But Not Destructive

Screen grab of a video showing a monster
tornado mowing through Lake City,
Arkansas. The tornado caused 
extensive damage. 

As expected, swarms of tornadoes strafed a large section of the nation's middle yesterday and overnight, spreading death and destruction across several states. 

That was only the beginning. More tornadoes are expected for the next three days. Worse, cataclysmic flooding is still in the cards for the Mid-South.

Here in Vermont, we've had our noisy overnight and early morning with mixed precipitation, bursts of heavy rain, strong wind gusts, thunder and lighting. 

For us here in the Green Mountain State, we can thank goodness the weather is at worst an inconvenience, not a disaster. 

With that, I'll get into the national picture and toward the end, update you on what's happening in Vermont. 

TORNADOES AND FLOODS

We're just getting toward early morning in the Midwest and South as I wrote this at 8 a.m., so as you'd imagine, assessments and casualty counts are incomplete yet. Many if not most of Wednesday's tornadoes hit after dark, so a full picture of what happened is incomplete.

We're already aware of three storm related deaths in Tennessee and a number of injuries. 

It appears at least some of the tornadoes were intense. Video taken from around Lake City Arkansas showed a large tornado with some horizontal funnels protruding from it. That's a tell-tale sign of a tornado that was probably of EF-4 strength, with winds of 166 to 200 mph. 

Adding to the potential evidence that this tornado was that strong, video taken after the twister shows houses completely leveled and vehicles strewn likely a fair distance from where they originated. 

We saw at least 22 reports of tornadoes yesterday and last night, and that number will almost certainly increase as storm paths and damage are assesses over the next few days. Tornado watches and warnings were still ongoing as dawn broke this morning in Tennessee and Kentucky.

Flooding is already breaking out, the start of what will be some of the worst flooding on record in parts of the Mid-South. Memphis has already had more than four inches of rain from last night, including 2.26 inches in just one hour. 

Things will get much worse before they get better

Tornado Outlook

Tornadoes are forecast to continue today, tomorrow and Saturday, with a particular emphasis on Arkansas, which as mentioned has already been hit hard by twisters.

Tornadoes, some possibly strong could form in central or southern Arkansas today.   On Friday, tornadoes, again some strong, could touch down nearly anywhere in Arkansas and surrounding states. 

More twisters are likely in and and near Arkansas Saturday. I

Flooding

The flooding will be even worse than the tornadoes. 

In addition to the downpours last night, another seven to as much as 15 inches of rain are in the forecast over the next four or five days for late sections of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky and southern Illinois. 

Granted this is a repeat of what I reported yesterday.  But the flood event is only just beginning. You'll hear and see on the news incredible flash flooding. This is life threatening and will be easily one of the worst floods, if not the worst flood in the U.S. you'll see this year. 

I would say it could be almost on par with the extreme flooding we saw in western North Carolina and surrounding areas with Hurricane Helene last September. 

Flood watches already extend from northeast Texas through Ohio.   

A stalled weather front with intense moisture from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico feeding into it are responsible for all this horrible weather.  Things should finally get unstuck by Sunday, and the weather in the U.S. looks much calmer and much less dangerous next week. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The WCAX camera feed from the ECHO Center in Burlington
captured this lightning bolt early this morning. 

Those forecasts we heard last night of a noisy early Thursday morning sure came true. 

The wonderful thing is we're avoiding a disaster this time, even if the weather system affecting us are related to the ones causing the extreme weather in the middle of the nation. 

Our first salvo was overnight. The parent storm of the weather front that stalled across the Mid-South is noisily moving through.

This storm is a novelty more than anything else, since it brought us our first bout of lightning and thunder of the season early this morning. Most places in Vermont saw some lightning flashes and experienced rumbles of thunder. 

Some areas of eastern Vermont experienced thunder sleet and/or thunder freezing rain, which is pretty cool. 

Most of the mixed precipitation was over by 7 a.m., though a few lingering pockets of it might still be ongoing in a few cold Northeast Kingdom hollows.  There were a number of delayed school openings in eastern Vermont due to the overnight ice. 

Rainfall has been pretty heavy under the thunderstorms, but most of us should stay under an inch of new precipitation.  A few places that got bullseyed by thunderstorms might go over an inch. Burlington had received 0.7 inches of rain through 8 a.m. and it was still raining there.

Rivers were already running high prior to this rain, so we might end up with pockets of minor flooding here and there later today from the runoff. 

That would hit mostly in places with poor drainage.  Main stem rivers in Vermont will rise today, but we'll very likely avoid any real flooding from those. Hydrologists with the National Weather Service are keeping an eye on things. 

The storm in Vermont peaked generally between the hours of 2 and 8 a.m.  Most of the rain should be out of here by mid to late morning.  

The wind has been really cranking in parts of the Champlain Valley this morning, again, as expected.  On my hillside perch in St. Albans, I'd estimate some of the gusts have reached as high as 45 mph. 

So far, between the wind and lightning and the ice in eastern Vermont, there's only been a small smattering of power outages. Nothing widespread.

A wind advisory is still in effect for northwest Vermont until 8 this evening.  Winds in northwest Vermont might taper off a little for a few hours late this morning then start to crank from the southwest and west at speeds as high as 55 mph in gusts. Then things will calm down this evening. 

At least it will be warm. After the rain departs this morning temperatures should rocket upward well into the 60s in most of Vermont. Maybe upper 50s in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Stalled Front

That stalled weather front that is causing so much destruction in the Mid-Mississippi Valley will start to extend up into our neck of the woods this weekend. 

But up here, we'll miss out on the fire hose of moisture striking the Midwest flood zone. Instead, we'll see kind of a blah weekend with periods of rain. I suppose a little snow or mixed precipitation could mix in Saturday in high spots and maybe the Northeast Kingdom, but this will be rain. 

Early guesses are we'll get a half inch to an inch of rain. Enough to keep river flows pretty brisk, but very likely not enough to cause flooding. We'll watch this, though. There's always a chance this weekend's rain could over-perform. 

Doesn't look likely, but we'll see.  

"Dirty Rain" In Midwest, East Blamed On Texas Duststorm

A car in Truxton, Missouri this weekend after light rain
showers mixed with dust from Texas hoisted aloft by
strong winds caused mud showers across large
areas of the Midwest and East the past few days. 

When my late father was a teenager in the 1930s, he woke up one March morning at his home in West Rutland, Vermont to find it had snowed overnight. 

Hardly an unusual occurrence in the Green Mountain State this time of year. 

But the snow wasn't white. It was brown. 

Those were the Dust Bowl days, when an unprecedented drought and poor farming practices joined forces to create immense dust storms in the Great Plains. 

These dust storms were so big that the dust carried high aloft, merged with storms further east. Those storms deposited rain and snow, mixed with the dirt in the sky carried from places like Kansas and Nebraska.

I thought of dad's story this week when I saw news reports of "dirty rain" falling this past week in places like St. Louis, Cincinnati, Charleston, West Virginia, Columbus, Ohio, Raleigh, North Carolina  and numerous other cities in the Midwest and East.

Turned out it was a similar situation to the Dust Bowl era.

The huge windbag of a storm that struck the middle of the nation last week swept New Mexico and Texas with winds gusting to more than 60 mph. Parts of western Texas and New Mexico are in extreme drought, so things out there are even dustier than usual. 

Those winds stirred up huge clouds of dust that darkened the skies and cut visibility to a mile or two in cities like El Paso, Austin, San Antonio and Dallas.  

False color satellite photo from last Friday morning. A 
powerful storm had sent clouds of dust from New Mexico
and Texas aloft. Here, the dust was concentrated high
over Oklahoma. Winds moved that dust 
eastward into areas of showers in the Midwest and
East, where it mixed with raindrops to create 
weird mud showers 

The winds were so powerful the dust was carried aloft - much like in the 1930s. That dust blew through the air over Illinois, Missouri and other states. That grime ran into lingering rain showers over the Midwest and East.  

The result was light showers of mud. 

These mudowers, I'd guess you'd call this dirty rain showers, had people wondering what the heck was going on. Residents of central Virginia, awakening Saturday morning to find their cars speckled in dirt, wondered if some nefarious agent was spraying some dangerous substance. 

Residents of Raleigh, North Carolina also found cars speckled in dirt after overnight showers. 

St. Louis, Missouri had their mud showers Friday, leaving cars and windows covered in dirt. The storm was probably a huge bonus to window washing businesses and car washes. 

There was some snow up here in Vermont during this episode. But the dust aloft did not make it this far to the north and east.  The dust aloft moved eastward through the Ohio Valley and eventually off the Mid-Atlantic coast. So the snow that fell Friday and Saturday here in Vermont was your traditional white, not brown. 

Some more snow is likely in Vermont today and tonight, but since the air flow is from frozen southern Canada,  not dusty west Texas, the snow should stay white, unless something completely  unexpected happens. 

These dirty rain storms parts of the nation have seen in recent days might not be over. Another powerful storm - perhaps even stronger than last week's is forecast to develop in the Great Plains toward next weekend. 

That storm could pull more dust from the drought zones of Arizona, New Mexico and Texas and drop more mud showers, who knows?

 

Super Stormy From Midwest To East Ahead Of A Break In Oppressive Heat

Lightning crackles across the sky last night
over St. Albans, Vermont. 

 Changes in weather patterns often go out with a bang.

So it is currently as severe storms and tornadoes have been hitting huge areas from the Plains, through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. 

The extensive severe weather - a bit rare for July - is a function of a weather pattern change that will bring an end to a long siege of hot, humid air in the Midwest and Northeast. This break in the heat could last at least a week in many places. 

We're included in those not-so-fun stormy times here in Vermont, but luckily it isn't as bad here - and won't be - as in many other area of the nation. 

Two rounds of powerful storms trekked from the Midwest to the Northeast since Sunday night. 

ROUND ONE 

The first began Sunday, rocking its way through Illinois, Indiana and surrounding states. There was widespread damage in and around Chicago, with roof and tree damage throughout the city. Two weak tornadoes were reported in Chicago's South Side, and winds gusted as high as 70 mph across the city. 

The disturbance that caused that erupted again Monday over western New York, dropping tennis ball sized hail in a couple towns, prompted tornado warnings and caused more tree and power line damage. This less than a week after a rare tornado outbreak in western and central New York. 

Those storms generally weakened as they headed into New England. But they were responsible for our light show and downpours last night.   

ROUND TWO

The second band of storms that originated over western Iowa grew even more intense than Sunday's blast as it headed into Illinois and Indiana last evening. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Chicago's O'Hare airport and there reports of possible tornadoes near O'Hare and Midway airports. Video showed what appeared to be a tornado moving over O'Hare. 

Radar images showed pretty tight rotation in a storm over downtown Chicago, where tornado warnings blared for a time last night. 

Wind gusted to 105 mph in an unincorporated town north of Peoria, Illinois, 101 mph in Davis Junction, Illinois just south of Rockford, and 93 mph in Lena, Illinois, a small town west of Rockford.

A woman died in Indiana when a tree fell on her home.  

VERMONT EXCITEMENT, HEAT

Burlington, Vermont reached 91 degrees Monday, the tenth day this year of 90 degree heat.  That makes it the fifth year in a row that had at least 10 such days.  That kind of streak has never happened before. Each of the past ten years has had at least eight 90 degree days. 

Lightning over St. Albans, Vermont last night. 

Previously, the longest such streak was six years in the 1940s.

We might make it to 90 again today, but that will likely be the last such day for a long time. It might not make it to 90 again this month as we anticipate a drier, cooler flow of air from the northwest starting Thursday. 

A heat advisory is in effect today for the Champlain and Connecticut Valleys. The rest of Vermont will be pretty oppressive, too.

Last night's storms hit areas that suffered the severe flooding last week. They weren't big enough to cause any serious new flooding, but it kept things wet and primed for renewed flash flooding if storms later today can produce strong enough downpours. Many areas in the northern half of Vermont had anywhere from a half inch to 1.5 inches of rain.

My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected a healthy 1.3 inches of rain from last night's storms. 

The disturbance that caused the wild weather and tornadoes in and near Chicago last night is heading our way, but it won't cause nearly as much drama as it did there. 

Still, we could see a few strong to severe storms and torrential downpours out of this. They could form in hit or miss fashion any time this afternoon, but most of them will hold off until after 5 p.m. 

Forecasts since yesterday have trended a little south with the most concentrated and intense storms, which steers the focus away from northern Vermont just a bit. 

Soils in the southern half of Vermont have a much greater capacity to absorb downpours at the moment than areas in the flash flood zone further north. 

While a severe storm is possible anywhere in Vermont later today, the best chance is along and south of Route 4.  Since the strongest storms will be south, that's where the most torrential downpours will probably set up, too.

That said, the air is so humid that there could be storms later today anywhere that could dump more than an inch of rain in an hour. That would set off a few local flash floods. Definitely nothing widespread or as severe as last week, but something to keep an eye on.

Tomorrow is still a surprising wildcard, given how the forecast for Wednesday is just a day away. We know we'll start off humid. There's some disagreement still on when the cold front will come through. The later in the day it arrives, the greater the chances of strong storms and more big downpours. 

Confidence in the forecast starting Thursday and into the weekend is still high. Humidity levels will crash. Temperatures will be just slightly on the cool side for the season Thursday, then back up into the low or even mid-80s in a couple spots Saturday.

Then a reinforcing shot of cool air from Canada comes in Sunday to drop temperatures further. By then, we'll deal with ultra comfortable highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. 

At least at the moment, it looks like there will be little if any rain at all between Thursday and and at least next Monday, and possibly beyond that.  

Midwest Flooding Has Been Quite Scary, Probably Worst Since 1993

Interstate 29 in southeastern South Dakota looks like
an immense lake after torrential rains caused 
catastrophic flooding in the region. 

 The flooding in South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota this month has been scary to say the least, as a summer of storms have unleashed havoc in the region.   

This is far worse than the usual torrential thunderstorms and local flash floods fairly common in the Midwest each summer.

You might have seen the horrible images of collapsing houses, whole solid little Midwestern towns under water, so many square miles of cropland drowned. 

At first, it was the smaller creeks and rivers that caused all the destruction. The high water has now moved into bigger rivers. Even the mighty Missouri and even mightier Mississippi are now flooding. And that flooding is forecast to get worse.

Per the Washington Post: 

"As of Monday, rivers across the Missouri River basin were at major flood stage: The James, Vermillion and Big Sioux rivers in South Dakota and the Des Moines and Little Sioux rivers in southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data."

This flood hits me more in the gut than usual because I have relatives in eastern South Dakota and in Minnesota.

Luckily, their towns, like Yankton, South Dakota, have so far avoided the worst of the flooding, though the James River nearby Yankton is cresting at major flood stage. 

The torrential downpours have tapered off for now, but the damage is not done done. A whopping ten to 18 inches of rain fell on chunks of the Missouri and upper Mississippi River basins last week.  No wonder the flooding is still getting worse.   

Examples of extreme damage are everywhere.

As of Tuesday, several major highways remained closed by flooding, including Interstate 29 in southeastern South Dakota. In that area, McCook Lake and the Big Sioux River combined to wash at least two houses away. Many more were damaged or destroyed, and severely undermined by rushing water. 

In Iowa, at least, 1,900 homes have been damaged or destroyed by the flooding.  Part of a railroad bridge collapsed into the floodwaters at North Sioux City, Iowa. In some of the most widely reported and viewed flood news, water detoured around a dam in Mankato, Minnesota, threatening worse flooding. The dam itself was still holding as of Tuesday. 

 The flooding hit because South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota were on the northern edge of the big heat dome that caused record high temperatures from Texas to the East Coast. The northern edge of a heat dome like this is known as the "ring of fire" because torrential rains and thunderstorms often ride that edge of the heat. 

This is consistent with climate change, too. A warmer atmosphere can contain more moisture. Storms can grab that extra moisture and dump it as torrential, flood-producing downpours. I don't know to what extent climate change had to do with this Midwest disaster, but the potential fingerprints are there.

The rainfall over the next few days in the flood zone looks milder than it's been, but still enough to potential cause issues. Rainfall in Iowa could amount to up to two inches over the next seven days.  

Some of that expected rain is likely to come down as pretty intense downpours, increasing the chance of local floods as those gullywashers hit already soaked ground. 

Even with the relative lack of downpours, the flooding in the larger rivers could last well into July.  

Yet ANOTHER Big Tornado Outbreak Looms In Midwest As Weather Here In Vermont Turns Changeable

Another day of severe weather and tornadoes is due
in the Plains today.  Up here in Vermont, we can
expect some changeable weather over 
the next few days. 

 The ongoing slog of severe weather and tornadoes continues through much of the middle of the nation. A fresh outbreak of storms and tornadoes today and Sunday is forecast to be among the worst this season.  

Here in Vermont, we'll have changeable weather, including a rather stormy Monday and Monday night. More on that coming up.

TORNADO/STORM HAVOC

Bad weather continued on Friday in the middle of the nation and it's going to get worse today.

Early Friday, a band of intense thunderstorms and a few embedded tornados raced from Nebraska, through Iowa and into Illinois, causing more damage.

Greenfield, Iowa, where an intense, deadly tornado mowed down and pulverized homes along a path through town on Tuesday, thunderstorm winds of 75 mph caused added damage there. Those winds tore tarps off of tornado-damaged roofs, knocked down some of the surviving trees and cut power again. 

Today, the alarm bells are going off especially in Kansas and Oklahoma, where we have another risk of violent, long-lasting tornadoes later today. 

That area is in a moderate risk zone for chaos, the second highest level.  As of early this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center was considering upgrading the risk level to a relatively rare high rating. There's still some questions as to how much super humid air will feed into this area.  If the humid air doesn't fully engulf this risk area, tornadoes might not be as widespread as feared. 

Stay tuned, and we'll hope the humidity sputters.

 Metro areas in the danger zone include Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma and Wichita, Kansas. In addition to the tornadoes, giant hail and hurricane force straight line winds are also possible in spots. Not everybody in the risk zone will see such dangerous weather, but a few certainly will. 

The activity moves on to Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Well, the heat we had this past week is certainly over. 

After a gorgeous, breezy, refreshing blue sky, green landscape day Friday, those clear skies led to the chilliest dawn since early this month. 

A crisp, blue sky morning in Vermont will lead to 
some changeable weather over the next few days,
though we're lucky enough to not be in for the
kind of severe weather occurring out in the
Midwest. No tornadoes for us!

 It wasn't extreme, but temperatures did fall to at least 31 in perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York. Readings in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom were in the mid-30s, while most of us were in the 40s. 

Burlington ended an 11-day streak of temperatures continuously above 50 degrees, which is quite rare for May.

We'll have another nice day today, though clouds will increase. A weak disturbance tonight will scatter some showers around, and we might even hear a rumble of thunder in a couple spots. No biggie.

Sunday will be a warm, largely sunny day. It might be a little too warm for those participating in Sunday's Vermont City Marathon in Burlington. Temperatures at dawn will start out near 60 and quickly rise well into the 70s by noon. Humidity will be moderate.

The interesting weather arrives Monday into Tuesday as we in Vermont see the effects of that Midwest storm. 

Luckily, we won't see extremes, but we should get a good dose of rain, some thunderstorms, and especially in the Champlain Valley, some gusty south winds. 

After a few days of low humidity, we'll actually need the rain for the gardens. At this point anywhere from a half inch to an inch and a half of rain is in the cards. The National Weather Service actually has us in a broad marginal risk zone for flash flooding Monday and Monday night. 

That said, even if we see anything like that in Vermont, it will be isolated and not catastrophic. We're still - so far at least - not setting ourselves up for anything like we had last summer. 

Starting Tuesday and going through the rest of the week, the weather will stay sort of cool for the season with risks for showers almost daily. No new heat waves in sight for now. 

Still A Severe Threat Here In Vermont, But A Much Bigger Storm Risk In Midwest

Skies already looked a little chaotic over St. Albans, 
Vermont before 8 a.m. today, hinting at a day that will
bring thunderstorms to the state. A few isolated
storms could turn severe with damaging wind/hail.

 It still looks like we in Vermont could see our first reports of severe thunderstorms of the season today, though the risk still looks fairly marginal.   

That means a few towns could see damaging gusts or large hail this afternoon or early evening, but most of us will escape with more moderate showers and storms, or in some cases nothing at all.

It will still be very much worth keeping an eye to the skies today and heading indoors when there's thunder. Also, if you receive a severe thunderstorm warning or see a particularly nasty looking storm coming, get into a good, sturdy building just to be safe.

At least today's storm threat here in the Green Mountain State doesn't involve large, powerful tornadoes like over in places like Iowa. (More on that problem in a minute).

VERMONT STORMS

The overall forecast today hasn't changed much since yesterday. We have summer like warmth and some humidity in place. A disturbance  coming in from the west is timed nicely - just in time to take advantage of peak heating this afternoon. 

The air over Vermont was already becoming conducive to showers and storms before 8 a.m today. A small downpour  had popped up near Plattsburgh, New York and a little south of St. Albans as of 7:30 a.m today.

The sun's heat will contribute to even more instability, and will work with the disturbance to form those towering thunderstorm clouds this afternoon.

The arrangement and timing of the storms looks pretty random, with no well defined front coming through. The storms will tend to pop up, then some will fade only to be replaced by new ones nearby. 

The best chance of seeing any storms would probably be between about 1:30 to 8:30 p.m, though a few rogue ones could pop up before or after that. 

Those isolated severe storms could also pop up anywhere in Vermont.  The sweet spot for them might be central Vermont, it seems, but even that is iffy. The severe storms will be far and few between. We're still in a marginal risk zone for severe weather. That's the lowest of a five-point alert scale. We'll have to watch to see whether they upgrade us to a level two, but I'm not really holding my breath on that one.  

Rainfall today will range widely. A few places will see nothing. A few other spots, especially this lucky devils that see more than one thunderstorm, will collect well over an inch of rain. I'm guessing many of us will see maybe a quarter inch of rain, maybe a half inch in several spots. 

It's a hit and miss day for sure.   

Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week. A few more afternoon and evening storms could pop up, taking advantage of the summer heat,  but they won't be as widespread as today. 

Thursday's cold front is tentatively looking like it might come through early enough in the day to avoid severe weather, but the timing of it is still open to question. As forecasts evolve, I'm also getting less and less impressed by the strength of the cold front. 

 If anything big happens Thursday, it's more likely the further east and south you go. Stay tuned.

MIDWEST OUTBREAK

Another big storm day in the Midwest, especially in areas
shaded in red and orange. Tornadoes, intense 
thunderstorms, large hail and flooding are a good bet in
those areas. Meanwhile, that dark green over us
here in Vermont forecasts isolated instances of 
severe thunderstorms today. 

Whatever might happen here in Vermont and the rest of northern New England will really be small potatoes compared to what's going on in the middle of the United States. 

A pretty vigorous storm is getting going now around Nebraska.  The organizing storm has already produced about 20 tornadoes over the past couple of days in the central Plains, plus lots of wind and big hail. 

As that storm organizes further today, it will create a nearly perfect environment for powerful storms centered on Iowa. Parts of Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois are also in what is now a moderate risk zone. That's the second highest level on that five point storm alert scale.

There were already tornado warnings early this morning between Omaha, Nebraska and Sioux City, Iowa, plus lots of severe storm and flash flooding warnings across parts of Iowa.

This initial blast of bad weather will move on this morning, making way for new supercells to form. Some tornadoes in a zone between northern Missouri and southeastern Minnesota could become strong and long lasting.  

I wouldn't be surprised if ultimate, a few dozen tornadoes are reported when all this is said and done

NOAA Storm Prediction Center meteorologists also think the storms will eventually form into a line of intense weather with straight line winds of 75 to 90 mph. 

Meanwhile, heavy rains could spread the flooding we're seeing now near Omaha and Des Moines to spread through much of Minnesota and Wisconsin later today and tonight. 

The bottom line is we're seeing yet another very rough weather day in the Midwest. 

Plus, it's not done. A band from central Texas all the way up through western New York and Ontario is under the gun for severe storms tomorrow. Plus, the southern Plains are expecting rough weather Thursday.  

New Waves Of Storms (And Heat!) In U.S. Will Vermont Be Included In That?

The severe thunderstorm and tornado risk ramps up
again this week for the nation. This map shows the
biggest risk centered on Kansas today.

 The storms keep rolling along in the United States this weekend and the upcoming week.  As if Houston wasn't enough, multiple rounds of severe weather and tornadoes are ramping up again today and should continue most of the week. 

And, since we're getting closer to summer, dangerous heat is beginning to make inroads, too. 

I'll have a separate update on the Houston mess, so we can get right into the forecast. A Vermont update is further down, after we do the big picture. Spoiler for Vermonters: We hope you like summer. 

TODAY

One always important ingredient for big thunderstorms is heat and humidity, and that will be a thread through this week's storm risk. 

Way down in the South, the heat is horrendous. Miami had a heat index of 112 degrees yesterday, by far the worst on record for May in that neck of the woods. 

Parts of Texas will roast in 100 degree heat today. 

Some of that heat is feeding north toward a storm organizing somewhere near western Nebraska. Some of that heat is heading north toward Kansas, where it will encounter the effects of that storm. The result is an expected outbreak of intense storms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put central Kansas under a moderate risk of severe weather today. That's the second highest in a five point alert scale, meaning this is pretty serious. The biggest risk is straight line winds which could reach hurricane force in some areas along with giant hail. 

Tornadoes are also pretty likely, but I question whether it will be a big outbreak like Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa suffered in late April. 

Tomorrow's severe threat once again focuses on Kansas and Nebraska, so they're not out of the woods yet.

An even bigger and more widespread severe weather outbreak seems likely Tuesday as heat and humidity continues to stream into the eastern half of the U.S.  It'll interact with storminess coming in from the west to set off a big severe zone from Oklahoma to Michigan.

So far, it looks like Missouri and Iowa might take the brunt of things on Tuesday, but of course the forecast might also be adjusted. 

Severe storms and tornadoes are likely to continue in different parts of the Plains, Midwest and east Wednesday, Thursday and probably beyond that, too. 

The preliminary tornado count for this year is 820, which is pretty pretty far above normal for this point in the spring, and it looks like we will add to that list of twisters in the coming days. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Lilac season is in full swing in Vermont now, but it
will probably go by really fast due to hot, humid
weather for the season this week. There's
  a chance of severe storms this week, too, but 
things will have to line up just right for that to happen.

So far in 2024, Vermont is one of only three states to have not reported any severe thunderstorm winds, damaging hail or tornadoes. (New Hampshire and Maine are the other two states).

There might - or might not - have been local wind damage from isolated strong storms last week in Vermont, but there have been no reports from the public, so the count is zero. 

That might change this week, as we have some chances of severe weather. But whether or not that actually happens depends. Things need to come together just right to do that. 

As noted, heat and humidity are a key ingredient for strong storms. We're pretty confident it will be hot and humid for the season this week.  Temperatures should get into the 80s Monday through Wednesday, and maybe into Thursday. The humidity will gradually creep up, too. It might actually get to 90 in a couple spots Wednesday. 

The question is whether the oppressive weather for this time of year will touch off anything major. 

A weak disturbance on Tuesday has a shot at interacting with the summer warmth to set off some storms. If that happens, one or two might be briefly strong to severe. It's impossible to know exactly where this might occur, but if it does, it's more likely in northern Vermont. 

As it looks now, Wednesday looks quiet and hot, but just the fact it will be so summery could yield some mountain updrafts that generate local storms. Probably nothing widespread, but one or two places could get blasted by a torrential downpour and gusty winds.

The wild card is Thursday. A cold front will be coming in by then. If it passes through in the morning, the chances of severe weather are low. If it comes through in the afternoon or evening, that will give the atmosphere a chance to become much more unstable. Then, thunderstorms would have an opportunity to become strong to severe. Stay tuned! 

By Friday, the air will have become much cooler and drier, which would prevent any further big thunderstorms.