Super Stormy From Midwest To East Ahead Of A Break In Oppressive Heat

Lightning crackles across the sky last night
over St. Albans, Vermont. 

 Changes in weather patterns often go out with a bang.

So it is currently as severe storms and tornadoes have been hitting huge areas from the Plains, through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. 

The extensive severe weather - a bit rare for July - is a function of a weather pattern change that will bring an end to a long siege of hot, humid air in the Midwest and Northeast. This break in the heat could last at least a week in many places. 

We're included in those not-so-fun stormy times here in Vermont, but luckily it isn't as bad here - and won't be - as in many other area of the nation. 

Two rounds of powerful storms trekked from the Midwest to the Northeast since Sunday night. 

ROUND ONE 

The first began Sunday, rocking its way through Illinois, Indiana and surrounding states. There was widespread damage in and around Chicago, with roof and tree damage throughout the city. Two weak tornadoes were reported in Chicago's South Side, and winds gusted as high as 70 mph across the city. 

The disturbance that caused that erupted again Monday over western New York, dropping tennis ball sized hail in a couple towns, prompted tornado warnings and caused more tree and power line damage. This less than a week after a rare tornado outbreak in western and central New York. 

Those storms generally weakened as they headed into New England. But they were responsible for our light show and downpours last night.   

ROUND TWO

The second band of storms that originated over western Iowa grew even more intense than Sunday's blast as it headed into Illinois and Indiana last evening. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Chicago's O'Hare airport and there reports of possible tornadoes near O'Hare and Midway airports. Video showed what appeared to be a tornado moving over O'Hare. 

Radar images showed pretty tight rotation in a storm over downtown Chicago, where tornado warnings blared for a time last night. 

Wind gusted to 105 mph in an unincorporated town north of Peoria, Illinois, 101 mph in Davis Junction, Illinois just south of Rockford, and 93 mph in Lena, Illinois, a small town west of Rockford.

A woman died in Indiana when a tree fell on her home.  

VERMONT EXCITEMENT, HEAT

Burlington, Vermont reached 91 degrees Monday, the tenth day this year of 90 degree heat.  That makes it the fifth year in a row that had at least 10 such days.  That kind of streak has never happened before. Each of the past ten years has had at least eight 90 degree days. 

Lightning over St. Albans, Vermont last night. 

Previously, the longest such streak was six years in the 1940s.

We might make it to 90 again today, but that will likely be the last such day for a long time. It might not make it to 90 again this month as we anticipate a drier, cooler flow of air from the northwest starting Thursday. 

A heat advisory is in effect today for the Champlain and Connecticut Valleys. The rest of Vermont will be pretty oppressive, too.

Last night's storms hit areas that suffered the severe flooding last week. They weren't big enough to cause any serious new flooding, but it kept things wet and primed for renewed flash flooding if storms later today can produce strong enough downpours. Many areas in the northern half of Vermont had anywhere from a half inch to 1.5 inches of rain.

My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected a healthy 1.3 inches of rain from last night's storms. 

The disturbance that caused the wild weather and tornadoes in and near Chicago last night is heading our way, but it won't cause nearly as much drama as it did there. 

Still, we could see a few strong to severe storms and torrential downpours out of this. They could form in hit or miss fashion any time this afternoon, but most of them will hold off until after 5 p.m. 

Forecasts since yesterday have trended a little south with the most concentrated and intense storms, which steers the focus away from northern Vermont just a bit. 

Soils in the southern half of Vermont have a much greater capacity to absorb downpours at the moment than areas in the flash flood zone further north. 

While a severe storm is possible anywhere in Vermont later today, the best chance is along and south of Route 4.  Since the strongest storms will be south, that's where the most torrential downpours will probably set up, too.

That said, the air is so humid that there could be storms later today anywhere that could dump more than an inch of rain in an hour. That would set off a few local flash floods. Definitely nothing widespread or as severe as last week, but something to keep an eye on.

Tomorrow is still a surprising wildcard, given how the forecast for Wednesday is just a day away. We know we'll start off humid. There's some disagreement still on when the cold front will come through. The later in the day it arrives, the greater the chances of strong storms and more big downpours. 

Confidence in the forecast starting Thursday and into the weekend is still high. Humidity levels will crash. Temperatures will be just slightly on the cool side for the season Thursday, then back up into the low or even mid-80s in a couple spots Saturday.

Then a reinforcing shot of cool air from Canada comes in Sunday to drop temperatures further. By then, we'll deal with ultra comfortable highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. 

At least at the moment, it looks like there will be little if any rain at all between Thursday and and at least next Monday, and possibly beyond that.