Beryl Targeting Texas Next. And It Could Cause Trouble/Worry Here In Vermont, Believe It Or Not

Beryl has regrouped and organized into a nice 
symmetrical system again, which means it has 
an opportunity to strengthen before hitting
the Texas coast tonight or early Monday. Believe
it or not this storm could have an effect 
on us here in Vermont. 

 Having trashed a number of islands in the Caribbean, and part of Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, former and soon to be hurricane Beryl is now regrouping for another potentially lethal strike. 

It's now getting its act together again over the western Gulf of Mexico so that it can next slap the coastline of Texas with hurricane conditions.  Even then, it probably won't be done. 

Eventually, what will become the remnants of Beryl could cause trouble in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, including here in Vermont.

More on that in a little bit. First things first. 

Beryl crossed the Yucatan Peninsula Friday. Hurricanes that go over land almost always weaken quickly, and Beryl was no exception.

 It limped back into the Gulf of Mexico northwest of that peninsula Friday night as a disorganized mess of a 60 mph tropical storm. 

Beryl spent Saturday trying to pump out new bursts of thunderstorms to re-form, but dry air getting sucked into the system, and fairly strong winds aloft interfered. This was expected, and Beryl stayed as a rather troubled little tropical storm.

Until now. 

WHAT BERYL'S DOING

The upper level winds are calming down quite a lot, and Beryl is finishing up the process of coughing out the dry air that got mixed in with it. 

As of late this morning, it had just started to re-strengthen, with top winds near 65 mph as of 11 a.m. today. 

Beryl looks much better organized in satellite pictures than it did yesterday, and it should regain hurricane status later today or this evening. 

This is going to be another in a series of hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast anywhere between Texas and Florida in recent years that kept getting stronger right up until the moment it hit land. 

That's always the most dangerous scenario. For one, it takes people by surprise. They hear the hurricane has, say, 80 mph while it is off the coast, so people assume that's what they'll get. Then they end up surprised and unprepared when winds and storm surges at landfall are worse than that. 

TEXAS PREP

The warnings the folks on the Texas coast keep emphasizing Beryl will be at its strongest at landfall, so be prepared. 

Texas is lucky that there's not much space between where it is now and where it is forecast to hit Texas, probably somewhere in the middle of the Texas coast.  Even though it might start to strengthen quickly, it won't have much time to do so between now and when it hits land late tonight or very tomorrow.

Still, sustained winds with this thing should be close to 90 mph at landfall, and it could surprise by becoming even stronger, After all, Beryl has a history of surprises, being by far the earliest major hurricane and earliest Category 5 on record in the Atlantic.

Though Beryl broke all kinds of early season records, a July hurricane is not unheard of in Texas. It'll be the 10th July hurricane in Texas since 1851, said hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

Texas officials have urged tourists along the coast to skedaddle by this afternoon. The outer bands of Beryl were already bringing fitful downpours and gusty winds to the coast by noon today. People in the hurricane zone should be in shelter by nightfall.

Storm surges could reach four to six feet near and just to the northeast of where Beryl makes landfall. That's a concern considering how flat the Texas coastal plain is.  Tornadoes are possible. Meteorologists expect rainfall near the path of Beryl to pile up to between five and 10 inches, with local amounts up to 15 inches.

That, of course is a real recipe for flooding. That flooding will be dangerous, for sure. But luckily not the ultimate worst case scenario.. 

Although Beryl's path is similar to catastrophic Hurricane Harvey in 2017, this won't be another Harvey. Harvey was much stronger and bigger than Beryl. Also, steering winds in the atmosphere collapsed. So Harvey just sat over southeastern Texas for days, dumping feet of rain and causing one of the worst floods in U.S. history. 

Beryl isn't one to hang around. Its forward motion has been pretty speedy since it formed last week, and that's not really going to change much.  After it hits the coast, its remnants will be out of the Lone Start State by sometime Tuesday morning, when it heads into Arkansas,.

VERMONT IMPACTS?

A rejuvenated soon to be Hurricane Beryl will hit Texas tonight
or early tomorrow. It's possible its remnants could cause
flooding in Vermont on the anniversary of last
year's catastrophic floods. 

Believe it or not, the remnants of Beryl could help create trouble in Vermont later this week.  By the time it gets into mid-Missisippi valley, it'll just be a remnant low, heading toward the Great Lakes by Friday.

But this type of system can bring boatloads of moisture north with it. Which would add to the high humidity already in place across most of the eastern United States. 

We'll already also have some stalled or slow moving boundaries - basically glorified cold fronts that don't really have any colder or drier air associated with them. 

At least parts of Vermont had a wet June, and most of Vermont had heavy rain Saturday, except for some isolated areas that missed out on the showers and storms. So the soil is pretty wet and can't handle as much rain as it would after a dry spell. 

This has all gotten the attention of the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, especially since the flood potential would hit on the exact anniversary of last summer's catastrophic floods in July 9-11.

"We are getting increasingly concerned about a potentially significant hydrologic episode right on the 1 year anniversary of last year's flooding," the NWS office in South Burlington wrote in their Sunday morning forecast discussion. 

There's a lot of questions in the forecast. The arrangement of boundaries and the richest moisture in the atmosphere midweek is to be determined. It's possible nothing bad will happen at all. Or, slightly worse, just a few spots will see enough rain to trigger some local flash flooding. 

NWS/South Burlington continued in their Sunday morning discussion: "It is certainly plausible that our region escapes next week relatively unscathed. But it is important to be prepared for the reasonable worst case scenario, which is for scattered to numerous flash flooding if we do get repeated rounds of heavy rainfall and storms to tap into the abnormally moist atmosphere. Please stay up to date with the latest forecast."

Yeah, just what we need. 

It's only Sunday, so it's a little soon to hit the panic button.  But if you're in a flood prone area, now is a good time to think about what you would do if that torrential rain were to hit. Flooding is the last thing Vermont needs right now.  So let's just hope the Beryl and its remnants have run out of unpleasant surprises.