Vermont Braces For Storms, Flash Floods Today, Tonight

So here we are

A delicate sky that looks more like a painting 
greeted early risers in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
Skies will be anything but delicate over the
state later today as a real flash flood risk ramps up.

On the one-year anniversary of one of the worst floods in Vermont's history, we're about to see that flood's kid brother. 

Sure, this one won't be quite as bad as the experiences we endured 365 days ago,  but it will probably be bad enough. 

No one is exactly sure where yet, but we are pretty much guaranteed seeing washed out roads. property damage, and likely water wrecking the insides of some homes and businesses.

Let's hope it's not too many homes and businesses.

THE SETUP

Unlike the flooding a year ago, which pretty much encompassed all of Vermont, the event today and tonight will be a little spottier. There's still a good chance of pretty widespread trouble, just not as all-encompassing as July 10, 2023. 

It's just hard to predict which spots will see the worst of it. It'll be a case of one town being ransacked by a flash flood, while a few towns over, everything is fine and dandy. 

The forecasts have settled on the northern half of Vermont being at greatest risk. But where in northern Vermont the bullseye for the most torrential rains won't really be known until we get well into the event. Which means everyone should be on their toes.

In that zone from Route 4 into southern Canada, converging air will ensure heavy rains. That means air will be funneled into a tight squeeze in northern Vermont between a warm front to the south and a cold front in Canada.

When air is squeezed like that, it has nowhere to go but up. Rising air causes moisture to condense and fall as rain. The air over us is super wet, as you can tell by the high humidity. The remnants of Hurricane Beryl are injecting even more moisture into the picture.

So you see why we're getting all that rain. 

Pretty much everybody from roughly Route 4 northward should see at least two to three inches of rain between now and Thursday morning.  That would be enough to set off at least a little flooding in any areas.

The devil is always in the details, though. Somewhere in that zone from about Route 4 north will probably be a band of even heavier rain. That's the part which is hard to determine. 

That heavier west to east band of especially torrential rains could set up later today anywhere from roughly Route 4 to the Canadian border or even far southern Quebec.

 That higher risk flood band might only be 50 miles wide or even less, perhaps. Whoever is unlucky enough to be under the most torrential rain would see three to six inches of rain out of this. That would cause really bad flooding and washouts. 

This is just one of many varying predictions on
rainfall through tomorrow morning. The northern
two thirds of Vermont in this map gets 1.5 to
three inches of rain, but there will probably be
embedded spots of three to six inch totals. 

The risk for flash flooding will start probably early this afternoon and ramp up through the day. 

Rainfall rates will be high enough in some spots, so that you'd go from all is well to gushing water in an hour. Or even minutes. The intensity and coverage of the downpours will probably wax and wane, so don't necessarily relax if there's a lull.

Much of the heavy rain will come after dark, which makes things all the more dangerous. 

By tomorrow, the rain will largely be over. By morning, water will be rising in the main rivers. The bigger waterways like the Lamoille and Winooski might have some issues, but at this point I still really doubt that water will get into the downtowns of communities like Montpelier and Johnson, like what happened last year. 

So far at least, the National Weather Service is saying the rivers most likely to get near or reach flood stage are the Otter Creek, Mad River and Missisquoi River. Unlike last year, major flooding along our rivers is not in the forecast. 

A secondary risk today remains in southern Vermont in the form of possible severe storms. The remnants of tropical storms and weather disturbances near warm fronts, like we have today, can easily set off rotating supercells or thunderstorms.

We still have the risk of damaging winds from storms in the southern half of Vermont later today. There is even the low but real risk of a brief tornado. 

WHAT TO DO

Here are some more tips and reminders as to what to do with this weather situation.

If you have stuff that could go under water, like if your basement floods easily, move those items this morning to a higher, safer place. If you have a sump pump, make sure it's working. 

If you're in a flood prone area, you might need to act fast. Pack a to-go bag with essentials, including medications and important papers.  Think about how best to grab your pets, and how to help elderly relatives and friends get to safety if need be.

Have more than one way to receive flash flood or storm warnings. There might well be power outages, so charge your devices this morning. A weather radio is a great idea.

If you live in a rural or mountainous area where roads might get washed out, and/or you might have to shelter in place while the roads are blocked by water,   you might want to skip down to the grocery store this morning to pick up supplies like bottled water, non-perishable food. Not to mention baby food for the little ones if you have them and food for your pets.

I hope you find this blog useful for general info, but for fast breaking updates and warnings,  pay attention to reputable weather sources and not just some rando bonehead on social media. Your best bets for important warnings are the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, and the meteorologists at WPTZ, WCAX and WVNY/WFFF.

Whatever you do, do NOT drive over flooded roads. They always say turn around, don't drown. Flood deaths are very common in flooding. Rescue crews might also be stretched thin tonight or have trouble accessing you due to flooding, so that's something to consider.

At least half of the flash flood risk with this event is coming after dark. You can't easily see flooding or washouts ahead of you on the road at night often until it is too late.  If you have plans to go out tonight, you might reconsider and pick another night that isn't so stormy and potentially dangerous. 

Any cleanup that has to be done Thursday after the flooding will come amid warm temperatures and continued really high humidity.

That sets the stage for heat exhaustion, so you'll need to take it easy, don't rush, and stay hydrated. 

Not everyone in Vermont will have trouble with this storm.  In a few spots, the rain will do more good than harm, watering gardens and crops. But where the weather hits hard over the next 24 hours, it will hit really hard. 

It'll be one of those weird, random types of trouble we so often see in the summer. This one is just a bigger problem than usual.