 |
| Weather radar was already really busy across central and northern Vermont and NY with heavy rain and thunderstorms which couple easily turn severe. A flood watch and tornado watch are in effect. Keep a wary eye out this afternoon, folks~ |
Apparently, they can.
A tornado watch has been added to Vermont's existing flood watch as our storm really winds up.
Things were just getting exciting - in a bad way - as I write this at just after 12:30 p.m. Heavy rain is developing in many spots.
FLOODING
As our expected flooding and storms loomed late this morning, I was struck by how dark it had gotten here in St. Albans late this morning.
Through noon, we'd only gotten a little rain - less than a tenth of an inch. But boy, did it seem ominous out there. By 12:20 p.m. rain rates increased as thunder began booming. It has begun.
Judging from latest forecasts and radar returns, it looks like the whole mess of a storm is going to place itself a bit north of earlier forecasts.
The warm front that is helping cause this appears as if it wants to shift well into northern Vermont. That might focus the heaviest rains a bit north, too.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center slightly shifted their moderate risk zone - the areas most likely to see flash flooding today and tonight just a bit. Now, areas right along the Canadian border, and presumably just on the other side of the border in Quebec, stand the best chances of seeing some potentially seriously flooding.
Widespread two to four inch rain totals are now expected pretty much from Route 4 northward, with some spots seeing six inches or even more. The flood watch went into effect at 11 a.m., so starting now, any torrential storm can produce flooding.
The flash flood risk will steadily rise as we go through the day.
So it's not a good situation at all. I'm confident we'll get plenty of reports of road washouts and quite possibly some real property damage this afternoon and evening.
TORNADOES/SEVERE STORMS
With the warm front apparently further north, that places most of Vermont in a more favorable zone for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. When you have the remnants of a tropical system, with a warm front involved, you can easily get this type of trouble.
The old Hurricane Beryl remnants create shifting winds in the atmosphere. The warm front helps by bending south or southwest winds toward the southeast and east across areas near that front. That also helps encourage spinning thunderstorms and possible tornadoes.
Which is why a tornado watch is in effect until 9 p.m. this evening.
The chances of a tornado in Vermont aren't zero but they are low compared to the much bigger threat of flooding.
It appears an initial wave of heavy rain and thunderstorms was moving quickly north and northeast across the northern half of Vermont as of 12:30 p.m. Some of the thunderstorms in central Vermont and northern New York could get near severe levels before they head into Quebec.
It's possible there might be a lull after this initial band. (Not guaranteed, but it seems to me like it's headed that way). But more storms will quickly develop in the very wet and very unstable air to the south.
Also, this initial band could stall out north of Route 2 soon and start dumping heavy rains this afternoon. We'll need to watch the progress of where this first wave of downpours ends up.
I noticed a lot of new storms were already developing south of Syracuse, New York. Those storms will only become more numerous as the day wears on. There was already a tornado warning with one of these storms just southwest of Utica, New York as of 12:45 p.m.
Those storms are heading in Vermont's general direction. Note that most rotating storms do not produce a tornado. But they usually do create damaging straight line winds. Take all severe thunderstorm warnings seriously.
WHAT'S GOING ON
We'll all have to stay on our toes this afternoon and evening. Local flash flood warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings and possible tornado warnings will all be buzzing out of National Weather Service offices in South Burlington and areas near Vermont. Probably in quick succession at times.
I'm sure local television stations will keep cutting into regular broadcasts to spread the word about specific flood and storm threats as they develop today and tonight.
No matter where you are in Vermont, be prepared for really fast changing conditions.
This sounds basic, but know where you live on a map. Know which county you live in, and the names of the towns surrounding you. That will give you a better sense of whether you need to take action if any kind of warning is issued.
Vermont Emergency Management says it is opening its Emergency Operations Center this afternoon, which supports and coordinates efforts during severe floods and storms.
Also, Vermont's urban search and rescue teams are staging in areas most likely to see the worst of it today and tonight. The Vermont National Guard is assisting with this.
That there's this much prep work going on is yet another suggestion this storm is really one to take seriously.
I'm not sure I'll be able to post an update this evening or not, stay tuned. Keep an eye to the skies and an ear to a weather radio and other reliable sources of weather information.
You're going to need it.
No comments:
Post a Comment