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| One of dozens of roads under water in Vermont last July. New flooding seems likely this week, for the second July in a row, but, fingers crossed, it doesn't look it will be as bad as last year |
It came ashore this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with top sustained winds of around 80 mph with stronger gusts.
That was in line with expectations, but as the storm moved northward, it really socked Houston and environs with more of a punch than expected.
The storm brought wind gusts of up to 85 mph to the city, killing at least two people toppling countless trees and power lines, and leaving at least 2.2 million without power or air conditioning in the famously hot and humid city.
Torrential rains flooded highways and streets, prompting dozens of water rescues. Beryl also spit out several tornadoes across eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana. Storm surges inundated coastal towns in Texas.
Even before this storm hit, Houston had been especially battered by storms this year. A derecho in May caused many other power outages and structural damage, and blew out windows in downtown high rises. Those windows had mostly not been repaired by the time Beryl hit, so that made a mess.
Several floods have also hit the city this year.
A weakening Beryl is still heading north, spinning off additional tornadoes and flooding in Louisiana, Arkansas and points north in the Mississippi Valley.
High winds are the first to fall apart in a landfalling hurricane, and by 5 p.m. top winds were just 45 mph. Those winds will be down to 25 mph by later tonight and tomorrow, except in severe thunderstorms and tornadoes spawned by the storm.
Also as is typical of a former hurricane over land, heavy rainfall will continue for days along and near its path.
A flood threat will continue in the coming days in the Great Lakes, parts of the Northeast, New England and a sliver of southeastern Canada.
Which brings us to a Vermont update.
VERMONT EFFECTS
As you'd expect, there's been some little adjustments to the forecast but the overall forecast is roughly the same as it was this morning.
Everyone will get rain, but somewhere in the state, there could well be a swath or swaths of particularly heavy rain and flash flooding.
It's hitting on the anniversary of last year's cataclysmic floods, but it still, whatever happens doesn't look like it will be as bad as last year. But it's still something to be taken seriously.
In general, the expected swath of heaviest rain has shifted to northern Vermont, at least for now. Expect further adjustments either north or south leading up to the event.
Before we get there, tomorrow will be another hot one, and more humid than it was today. Believe it or not, this afternoon would be regarded as only slightly humid, with dew points in the low 60s.
By tomorrow, the dew point will be closer to 70 degrees, which is gawd-awful oppressive.
That will help generate some scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Most of us will be rain free, but a few unlucky spots will get some torrential downpours, since there's so much moisture in the air.
The real show starts Wednesday afternoon. It'll still be incredibly humid. The interaction between Beryl's remnants and the ghosts of former fronts and thunderstorm outflow boundaries will conspire to set off areas of heavy rain. That rain will be feeding off atmospheric moisture that will be approaching record levels.
As mentioned, we're still not sure where the heaviest rain will set up, but somebody will probably get nailed. Many of us will probably see one to two inches of rain, which is pretty manageable.
Some places could see two or more inches of rain in just six hours. If one of those streaks of heavier rain do end of setting up shop in Vermont, there could be areas of three to four inches of rain, with spot totals of five inches or more.
That's more than enough to set off locally destructive flash floods. Steep mountain areas are the most likely trouble spots, since the slopes will send water rushing down the hills into valleys, washing out roads, filling basements and causing other dangerous mischief.
Depending on rainfall, some main rivers could go into flood, but so far, it doesn't look like they'll reach the record levels we saw last July.
One great piece of news is the rain in Vermont won't last as long as it did during the July floods a year ago.
The rain last year began in earnest on July 9 and didn't taper off until the morning of July 11. This time, though there will be a chance of scattered rain and downpours starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing daily through at least Monday, the heaviest rain looks like it will come in a roughly 12 hour period Wednesday afternoon and night.
We'll need to watch out for the kind of "hangover" we saw after last summer's floods. If you remember, we had a series of smaller, but still destructive flash floods into August, 2023.
It will remain humid after this system goes by. Depending on weather set ups, that could make us prone to more locally heavy downpours this weekend and next week. Not a promise, thank goodness, but just a thing to keep in the back of your head.
I'll give you an update on all this tomorrow morning. By then, at least some of the forecasts will have become a little more specific.
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