Hurricane Season 2024 Finally Comes To An End, Good Riddance!

Hurricane Helene approaching Florida in September. This
hurricane proved to be the United States' deadliest hurricane
since Katrina in 2005. The 2024 hurricane season, which
ended Saturday, was among the most destructive on record.

 Back on Saturday, we said our goodbyes to the Atlantic hurricane season of 2024.

And we also told it to don't let the door hit you on your ass on the way out.  It turned out to be a troublesome one, that's for sure. 

As NPR reports, it was the deadliest hurricane season in two decades and easily one of the costliest. Five hurricanes hit the continental United States in 2024, a near-record for the most hits in a single season. 

Hurricane Helene alone snuffed out 150 lives, the biggest death toll from a single hurricane in the United States since 2005's Hurricane Katrina.

Damage from this year's hurricanes amount to at least $190 billion, the second most costly hurricane year after 2017. That was the year that brought us Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria.

As we head into the Christmas season, thousands of people are still experiencing heartache, loss, fear, homelessness and financial ruin because of this year's hurricanes 

For the record 2024 brought us 18 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph. Eleven of those storms became hurricanes (74 mph or greater) and five were major hurricanes (111 mph or greater)

The second half of the season was when most of the action happened. Twelve named storms formed after what is normally the season's peak in early September. Seven hurricanes formed after September 25, which is the most for that late in the season. 

We were warned back in the spring this would be a hyper hurricane season, as near record warm ocean temperatures and a favorable atmospheric setup would turbocharge the season, leading to a possibly record number of hurricanes.  Some estimates indicated we'd have more tropical storms and hurricanes than names in the 2024 queue for these storms.

But the last tropical storm of the season was Sara, leaving three unused names this year, Tony, Valerie and William.

Normally there would have been additional storms in August and the first week of September, which is near the peak of the season. All the ingredients seemed to be there for storms, but they just didn't materialize during that period. It was an odd mid-season lull

Meteorologists will probably spend years studying why the hurricanes mercifully shut down during those weeks in August. 

Some leading theories include the idea that disturbances moving off the west coast ofAfrica - which often eventually develop into hurricanes - were too far north this year, missing out on the very warm waters further south that would fuel these storms.

Also, to get a hurricane going, the upper atmosphere should be cooler than the air near the surface. That would create instability to few the thunderstorms that are the seeds of hurricanes.

This year, the atmosphere was warm through tens of thousands of feet in elevation. That prevented the needed instability to create nascent tropical storms. 

Those meteorologists will study if these really were the factors preventing hurricanes in August and whether climate change had anything to do with these atmospheric conditions. That research will help with predictions of future hurricane season, and individual hurricanes. 

Two of the season's hurricanes managed to cause damage here in Vermont. 

In July, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl (which was the earliest Category 5 Atlantic storm on record in the Caribbean) teamed up with a stalled weather front to unleash intense downpours, especially across much of central and northern Vermont. The result was the state's third catastrophic flood within a year.   

In early August, the remnants of Hurricane Debby blasted much of Vermont with high winds, especially the Champlain Valley. 

Both storms proved you don't have to be anywhere close to where a hurricane made landfall to have those storms cause real trouble.  

Where Are All The Hurricanes? They're Unfortunately Still On The Way

Satellite view of Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean
on July 2. Since then, there has pretty much been
no tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. But experts
say the forecasted very busy hurricane season is
still on the way, with things likely ramping up 
big time during August. 

This year's hurricane season got off to its expected horrible start in late June when Hurricane Beryl, the strongest hurricane in the Caribbean for so early in the season, started its horrible path of catastrophe in the Windward Islands. 

On into early July, Beryl caused disaster and heartache in Jamaica, Mexico, Texas (especially the Houston area), Arkansas, the Ohio Valley, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and Nova Scotia. 

Since then, pretty much nothing, thank goodness. Except a nothing burger Tropical Storm Chris on June 30, which lasted barely 12 hours and never produced winds much above tropical storm force. 

This has people asking, "I thought this was supposed to be a super-charged, incredibly busy hurricane season."  

As recently as July 9, the closely watched Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast was updated to actually slightly increase the expected number of storms from its previous already record breaking busy prediction. 

So where are the tropical storms and hurricanes? As of Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center was forecasting no tropical storm development for at least 48 hours, probably even more. 

Ominously, they're still coming. 

Let's just say the National Hurricane Center isn't granting any PTO to its employees in August, September and October. 

After Beryl's departure, vast clouds of dust from the Sahara Desert blew westward across the Atlantic Ocean, precisely in the band in the tropics where hurricanes are most likely to form. 

Saharan dust tends to stifle tropical storm development. These clouds of Saharan dust over the Atlantic are very common in June and July, which is one reason why tropical storms and hurricanes are relatively rare during the first half of summer. 

This year's July dust is by one measure the second-densest since 2002.  However, like virtually every year in history, the dust is getting set to sharply diminish as we head into August.  That'll help tropical storms form. 

There's also a natural cycle that happens every few weeks in which the air over the areas in the Atlantic where hurricanes want to form that causes sinking air. Sinking air prevents the thunderstorms that are wannabe tropical storms from forming. 

That sinking cycle has been over the storm forming region recently, but is now starting to move on. 

So: The dust is going away, the sinking air is going away, the oceans keep heating up more and more, and that's jet fuel for hurricanes.  We're also shifting into a global La Nina pattern which should really start to gets its legs steady in August. 

All those signs point to the Atlantic Ocean exploding with storms during August, especially in the second half, when hurricanes really start to form easily in normal years, much less setups like we're seeing now. 

Already, some long range forecasts are starting to detect signs of a possible tropical storm or storms forming in the first week of August. 

Where all the expected tropical storms and hurricanes go will determine whether we'll have more disasters and calamities like Beryl. 

Houstonians Roast Without Air Conditioning In Post-Beryl Outages

CenterPoint Energy, the electricity supplier for 
Houston and environs, is under fire for taking too
long to restore power after Hurricane Beryl 
hit the region this past Monday. 

 While we've been dealing with our own huge  problems here in Vermont from former Hurricane Beryl, the area around Houston is stewing in soupy hot air without air conditioning. 

At least for many. 

Something like nearly 1 million homes and businesses remained without power as of Friday, more than four days after winds from Hurricane Beryl took down a seemingly uncountable number of power lines, poles and trees. 

Right after the storm, 2.7 million homes and businesses in the Houston metro were without power. Up to half a million might not have power back by Monday. The slow pace of utility repairs have angered residents amid typical Houston heat and humidity.

CenterPoint Energy, the main power supply for Houston and environs is facing plenty of criticism that they were ill prepared for the storm and is not doing enough now to restore power.  

High temperatures around Houston are in the low 90s to mid 90s, with temperatures only falling to the upper 70s for lows.  .

 This is actually fairly typical for July days in the area. Still, the National Weather Service office in Houston issued a heat advisory because the widespread lack of air conditioning is endangering peoples' health. It didn't help Wednesday that the air was dirty: An air quality alert was also in effect. 

On Friday, thunderstorms were providing ever so slightly cooler conditions in Houston, but it was still terribly humid. And lightning strikes threatened new power outages. Then  the heat comes roaring back.

Already, nine people have died in Texas and Louisiana from the effects of Beryl - their lives ended by falling trees, drowning while trapped in cars, or whose medical devices conked out along with the electricity. 

The lack of air conditioning could easily mean additional deaths, if it hasn't already.  The more days the elderly and vulnerable are exposed to high heat and humidity without relief, the more endangered they become. 

Already, two people have died in Harris County, which is home to Houston because of carbon monoxide poisoning from gas-powered generators, CNN reports.

Amid all this, CenterPoint doesn't exactly have a great reputation. It's regarded by many as unreliable 

"Its grid, according to data collected by the firm Whisker Labs, which tracks power outages through devices in ratepayer homes, is one of the most unstable in the United States despite Houston's hurricane-prone Gulf Coast location. Whisker found that even before the storm hit Monday, outages in CenterPoint's service territory were happening at more than twice the national average," the Washington Post reported. 

Calls for CenterPoint to do a better job are one of the few bipartisan issues Texans can agree. 

Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, traveling in Asia, released a statement calling for an investigation as to why Houston keeps having these big power outages. 

Meanwhile, Democratic Houston Mayor John Whitmire said, "We demand that they do better."

CenterPoint disputes that allegation, saying they restored power quickly to a million or so customers after the storm. The utility says it also has a "resiliency plan:

Per WaPo again:

"CenterPoint this year presented regulators with a sweeping $2 billion 'resiliency' plan aimed at shoring up the power grid against extreme weather. The plan, which calls for upgrading poles and wires, deploying technologies to reroute power when lines go down and burying some lines is lumbering through the approval process."

Houston and Texas as a whole has been beset with big power outages in recent years. About a million people around Houston lost power during and after a May derecho.  Houston was also hit hard by power outages when a deep freeze caused power to fail statewide.  

It's also the start of hurricane season. There's no reason why another hurricane can't hit Houston this year. Especially given that it is still expected to be an extraordinarily busy season. 

Tuesday Evening Vermont Forecast Update : News Is Bad, Flood Prospects Worsen, Unfortunately

Flash flood risk has been upgraded to "moderate" in
much of Vermont and surrounding areas, which
makes at least some flash flooding pretty 
much guaranteed, with possible serious damage.

 The forecasts for tomorrow and tomorrow night's flood risk have gotten noticeably worse over the course of today. 

The relative certainty of the event has increased. So has the expected rainfall amounts. Which means the flash flooding could end up being quite extensive here in the Green Mountain State.

This still won't be as bad or as long lasting as the cataclysmic flooding we saw exactly a year ago. But it will still be dangerous, damaging, even life-threatening in some areas.

Take this one seriously.

To nobody's surprise, the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for all of Vermont except for our two southernmost counties, where rainfall should be lighter. The flood watch is in effect from 11 a.m. tomorrow through 11 a.m. Thursday. 

Flood watches are also up for northeastern New York, most of New Hampshire and western Maine.  

Let's break it all down:

TODAY/THIS EVENING

As expected, scattered thunderstorms erupted this afternoon around Vermont, and will continue into the evening before sputtering out. 

Some of the most torrential thunderstorms hit central Vermont, along roughly a line from north of Middlebury, to near Montpelier and on toward St. Johnsbury. Some of these dumped a good inch of rain. 

That's precisely the area that saw the heaviest downpours in last Saturday's round of thunderstorms.  And it's the band across Vermont that could well see the heaviest rain from this upcoming flash flood episode. 

So this piece is really bad. 

WEDNESDAY

When you get up tomorrow morning, it won't seem so ominous. Sure, it will be incredibly humid. But there won't be much rain around. 

That will change during the afternoon. As meteorologist Tyler Jankowski of WPTZ explained, a warm front associated with the remnants of Hurricane and Beryl will be trying to ever so slowly lift northward toward central Vermont.

At the same time, a weak cold front will try to move due south in Quebec. That puts central and northern Vermont between the two fronts.  Between those two fronts, Beryl, with an assist from the Atlantic  Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, will provide  the necessary water for torrential downpours. 

The two fronts will conspire to make the air rise, so the downpours will break out, and pretty much keep running west to east between those two fronts. 

As of this evening, the forecast for the heaviest rain runs from that Middlebury/Montpelier/St Johnsbury line. Which of course is the exact worst place it could be. We're talking three to six inches of rain in less than 15 hours. 

That's enough to trigger some pretty damaging and dangerous flash flooding. 

It's still quite possible the heaviest west to east band of flooding rains could set up a little north or a little south of the area I outlined. If that happens the flash flooding will be pretty much as bad as what I outlined, but it would of course be far northern Vermont or south central Vermont. 

We'll see updates and adjustments tomorrow morning, I'm sure. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded its flash flood risk from slight to moderate across tomorrow for northeastern New York, the northern two-thirds of Vermont and northern New Hampshire. 

That risk level almost guarantees there will be some reports of fairly substantial flash flooding. Again, not as bad as July 10, 2023, but bad enough. 

The timing of this worries me, too. Flash flooding would probably start in earnest by late afternoon or evening. But it will likely peak after dark.   

As if we don't have enough to worry about with
flooding Wednesday, there's a low but 
definitely not zero chance of a tornado or two
across New York and southern and central Vermont.

Flash flooding and severe storms are more dangerous at night. If you're driving at night,  you might not see the road under water or washed completely away until you hit it. 

People in homes might not have a good read on how the water is behaving at night. And a hasty evacuation is dangerous in the dark. 

Oh, and we have yet another potentially dangerous problem to deal with tomorrow. Former tropical storms are famous for spinning off tornadoes. Beryl created a couple dozen tornadoes in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas yesterday.

Along and south of that warm front I mentioned, winds will change directions with height. So southern and possibly central Vermont is at risk for a few rotating thunderstorms. The biggest risk from these is damaging straight line winds. But we might also see a brief tornado tomorrow, especially from about Route 4 south. 

Also, although far southern Vermont is outside the greatest flood risk area, thunderstorms could become intense enough to produce some instances of local flash floods. 

THURSDAY

The heavy downpours will have departed by the time dawn breaks Thursday. Then we'll have to shift attention to the main stem rivers. 

Some of them will go into flood stage, but it continues to look like rivers like the Winooski and Lamoille won't get nearly as high as they did in last year's epic disaster.  Tuesday evening forecasts call for both rivers to stay below flood stage. I think future forecasts will increase the flood risk along those two rivers, but we should still fall far short of the horrors we saw in the Winooski and Lamoille valleys last July. 

I think downtown Montpelier is safe, unless the forecast turns much, much worse. I think downtown Johnson should mostly escape trouble, again, fingers crossed. 

WHAT TO DO

If you live in an area prone to flash floods that could force you to evacuate, put together a to-go bag tonight or early tomorrow. Include important documents, medications and other necessities. Think about what hoops you'd have to jump through to get your pets or elderly relatives out of harm's way. 

Flash floods happen, well, in a flash, so you need to be nimble. Have ways to get weather warnings and advisories. 

If you're told to evacuate by emergency officials, do it. And quickly. If they close a road, don't go around the barriers. If you can help it, don't wade into floodwaters. It's probably polluted and could get you sick. 

If your basement is filling up with water, don't go down there. Basement walls and foundations are famous for collapsing in flash floods. That can trap you under water under debris if you're down there.  

Charge your devices tomorrow morning. We could have power outages. Remember, there could be damaging thunderstorm winds in central and southern Vermont, or even a brief twister. Make sure you're ready to take shelter in a sturdy building if the National Weather Service issues a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. 

You want to be wicked careful driving. Please do NOT drive through flooded roads. You could stall or get swept away in just several inches of water. Also, the road might no longer be there under the water. It might have washed away. 

BOTTOM LINE

This is yet another depressing "here we go again" moment. We have to face the reality that climate change has made weather extremes more likely. 

I guess we've already had a lot of practice with this sort of thing. The main goal here is to prevent loss of life.

We are a bit at the mercy of this thing, although Vermont has taken steps to become more flood and disaster resistant. 

Don't panic, but be sober.  This too shall pass, and we'll have a breather again soon enough. 

Tuesday Morning Vermont Beryl Flood Update: Still A Lot Of Questions Where

For now, forecasters are maintaining a slight risk
of flash flooding tomorrow and tomorrow night
over our region. That means a 15 to 40 percent
chance of enough rain within 25 miles of a given
point to cause flash flooding. Those forecasters
are considering an upgrade to moderate risk in
parts of this region, but are holding off due to
lingering questions as to where the heaviest
rain will set up. 

 We wake up Tuesday morning with a flood potential still existing in Vermont for Wednesday and Thursday. 

The computer forecasting models, however, are still not being super helpful as to where the greatest risk might fall. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington notes there's still not a lot of agreement among the computer models as to where the heaviest and the biggest flood potential will set up.

One group of computer models tells us the best chance of potential torrents of rain and flooding  would be along and north of Route 2.  The other group of models takes the torrents mostly through southern Vermont. 

Overall, we should still expect trouble somewhere in Vermont. Wednesday's anniversary of last year's big flood will unfortunately probably bring another round of flooding.  Like we need it. 

Thankfully, though it could be a dangerous situation tomorrow, this won't be quite as bad or as widespread as July 10, 2023. 

You still need to pay attention to all this through Thursday though. If you're looking for specifics as to who's most at risk, you'll need to wait until tomorrow. Also note the word "flash" in "flash flood".  You get very little if any notice when such a flood develops which is all the more reason to stay on your toes.

No flood watches have been issued just yet.  I think that might happen later today or tonight when we have more forecast clarity. 

THE SPECIFICS

Monday was another very warm one, but it was nice if you like hot weather. Burlington reached 90 degrees again, making it already the eighth day this year at or above 90 degrees. Humidity was moderate, and there was a lot of sun.  

We had a good beach day.

Today

We'll feel worse than yesterday today, and a couple weather risks have been introduced into the mix. Temperatures will be just as warm as yesterday, with widespread 80s and a few places touching 90 again. 

The humidity is getting worse this morning, though, and will continue to worsen through the day. The dew point - a rough measure of how sticky it feels out there - will be near 70, which is oppressive.

That's hot enough to trigger a heat advisory in parts of the Champlain Valley. Elsewhere in the state, it will still be dangerous to overexert yourself outdoors. People with health issues should seek air conditioning if the can.

All this humidity hanging around today will trigger scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. Most of us will either get nothing or something relatively tame. But some storms will have torrential rains, so we start to get a risk of isolated spots of flash flooding.

That's a foretaste of what to expect tomorrow. 

Wednesday

Here's where the remains of Hurricane Beryl enter the picture. The already sopping wet and sticky air over us will get an infusion of extra water that could dangerously dump on us. 

The breakdown of the two main forecast scenarios goes as follows:

In the first scenario, a west-to-east boundary, sort of a semi warm front would hang around central and northern Vermont. That would encourage those "training" downpours and thunderstorms. The boxcars going along the railroad tracks I keep talking about. 

That would quickly put those areas in the northern third of Vermont under the gun for flash flooding starting in the afternoon and continuing well into the night. 

Pockets of southern Vermont would get some local flash flooding in thunderstorms, too. Also, you always have to be careful of thunderstorms just south of warm fronts like we'll have tomorrow. Storms just to the south of such fronts tend to rotate.  There's a very, very low but not zero chance of a brief tornado under this scenario. There's be a slightly greater chance of a  couple storms having damaging straight line winds.

Under the second forecast scenario, our warm front sets up a little further south, so the training, persistent downpours hit the southern half of the state. That would put the better chances of flash flooding south of places like Middlebury and Barre/Montpelier.

Northern Vermont would not be out of the woods in this set up. The air will be so humid it will support torrential downpours even there. 

The consensus at the moment is that most of us should see one to three inches of rain. Somewhere in our region, there's a great chance of a band of two to four inch totals, with spots within that band seeing five inches or even more of rain.

Much of that rain would come down within a few hours. As it stands now, most of Vermont would need roughly 1.8 to 2.5 inches of rain within three hours to trigger flash flooding. Or two to three inches within six hours in northern Vermont to do the same. We could easily see that much rain. 

Chances are some spots will see more than enough downpours to set up some dangerous flash flooding by Wednesday night. Not everywhere, mind you. But some locations. 

As far as the state's larger rivers go, it's still unclear how high the water will get.  Some of those rivers will probably flood, but not to the record extent they did last July. Whatever happens, water levels on the bigger rivers would peak Wednesday night and Thursday. Time will tell, and I'll have updates.

By the way. what I described above are the two likeliest scenarios. There will be variations, along with twists and turns in the forecast leading up to the event, and even during it.  Who knows? Maybe the two scenarios will split the difference and focus on central Vermont. 

We'll all have to stay on our toes for this one.

Thursday

Some dry air should move in aloft, even though it will stay humid down here on the ground.  If that happens, thedry air up above will help, as that will limit the number of thunderstorms we get during the afternoon. There will still be a few that could produce torrential downpours to locally worsen any issues that develop Wednesday and Wednesday night. 

But it shouldn't be super widespread.  With some sun and intense humidity still in place, any post-flood cleanup work will be that much more dangerous. Heat exhaustion would be a real threat. 

That goes for beyond Thursday as well.  A wee bit drier and ever so slightly cooler air will work in Friday and maybe Saturday to spell a little relief before rather hot, humid weather returns again. Storm chances look low Friday and Saturday, but should start to increase again Sunday. 

Monday Evening Beryl Update: Houston Area Hit Harder Than Expected, Flood Concerns Remain In Vermont

One of dozens of roads under water in Vermont last July.
New flooding seems likely this week, for the second
July in a row, but, fingers crossed, it doesn't
look it will be as bad as last year

Now Ex-hurricane Beryl kept up its reputation Monday and over-performed, this time in Texas.

It came ashore this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with top sustained winds of around 80 mph with stronger gusts. 

That was in line with expectations, but as the storm moved northward, it really socked Houston and environs with more of a punch than expected.

The storm brought wind gusts of up to 85 mph to the city, killing at least two people toppling countless trees and power lines, and leaving at least 2.2 million without power or air conditioning in the famously hot and humid city. 

Torrential rains flooded highways and streets, prompting dozens of water rescues. Beryl also spit out several tornadoes across eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana. Storm surges inundated coastal towns in Texas. 

Even before this storm hit, Houston had been especially battered by storms this year. A derecho in May caused many other power outages and structural damage, and blew out windows in downtown high rises. Those windows had mostly not been repaired by the time Beryl hit, so that made a mess.

Several floods have also hit the city this year. 

A weakening Beryl is still heading north, spinning off additional tornadoes and flooding in Louisiana, Arkansas and points north in the Mississippi Valley. 

High winds are the first to fall apart in a landfalling hurricane, and by 5 p.m. top winds were just 45 mph. Those winds will be down to 25 mph by later tonight and tomorrow, except in severe thunderstorms and tornadoes spawned by the storm. 

Also as is typical of a former hurricane over land, heavy rainfall will continue for days along and near its path. 

A flood threat will continue in the coming days in the Great Lakes, parts of the Northeast, New England and a sliver of southeastern Canada.

Which brings us to a Vermont update.

VERMONT EFFECTS

As you'd expect, there's been some little adjustments to the forecast but the overall forecast is roughly the same as it was this morning. 

Everyone will get rain, but somewhere in the state, there could well be a swath or swaths of particularly heavy rain and flash flooding. 

It's hitting on the anniversary of last year's cataclysmic floods, but it still, whatever happens doesn't look like it will be as bad as last year. But it's still something to be taken seriously. 

In general, the expected swath of heaviest rain has shifted to northern Vermont, at least for now. Expect further adjustments either north or south leading up to the event. 

Before we get there, tomorrow will be another hot one, and more humid than it was today. Believe it or not, this afternoon would be regarded as only slightly humid, with dew points in the low 60s. 

By tomorrow, the dew point will be closer to 70 degrees, which is gawd-awful oppressive.

That will help generate some scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Most of us will be rain free, but a few unlucky spots will get some torrential downpours, since there's so much moisture in the air.

The real show starts Wednesday afternoon. It'll still be incredibly humid. The interaction between Beryl's remnants and the ghosts of former fronts and thunderstorm outflow boundaries will conspire to set off areas of heavy rain. That rain will be feeding off atmospheric moisture that will be approaching record levels.

As mentioned, we're still not sure where the heaviest rain will set up, but somebody will probably get nailed. Many of us will probably see one to two inches of rain, which is pretty manageable. 

Some places could see two or more inches of rain in just six hours. If one of those streaks of heavier rain do end of setting up shop in Vermont, there could be areas of three to four inches of rain, with spot totals of five inches or more.

That's more than enough to set off locally destructive flash floods. Steep mountain areas are the most likely trouble spots, since the slopes will send water rushing down the hills into valleys, washing out roads, filling basements and causing other dangerous mischief. 

Depending on rainfall, some main rivers could go into flood, but so far, it doesn't look like they'll reach the record levels we saw last July.

One great piece of news is the rain in Vermont won't last as long as it did during the July floods a year ago. 

The rain last year began in earnest on July 9 and didn't taper off until the morning of July 11. This time, though there will be a chance of scattered rain and downpours starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing daily through at least Monday, the heaviest rain looks like it will come in a roughly 12 hour period Wednesday afternoon and night. 

We'll need to watch out for the kind of "hangover" we saw after last summer's floods. If you remember, we had a series of smaller, but still destructive flash floods into August, 2023.

It will remain humid after this system goes by. Depending on weather set ups, that could make us prone to more locally heavy downpours this weekend and next week. Not a promise, thank goodness, but just a thing to keep in the back of your head.

I'll give you an update on all this tomorrow morning. By then, at least some of the forecasts will have become a little more specific. 

Texas Hurricane Beryl Landfall Oddly Raises Ominous Vermont Flooding Fears

Flood risk map for Wednesday. Yellow shading indicates
a 15 percent chance of enough rain to cause flash
flooding with 25 miles of a point on a map. That's a
higher risk than it might seem, and meteorologists
might upgrade this map to a higher risk around
Vermont depending on how future forecasts go.

As expected, Beryl regained hurricane status and came ashore near Matagorda, Texas early this morning, causing storm surges up to six feet deep and raking the area with powerful winds and torrential rains. 

Now that Beryl is inland, the 80 mph sustained winds it had at landfall will quickly diminish. However, like so many tropical storms and hurricanes, Beryl will potentially cause trouble over a possibly long path for a few days yet.

The remains of former tropical storms and hurricanes carry deep moisture for hundreds, even sometimes thousands of miles.  This can cause flooding a long distance from where they came ashore.

Such is the case of Beryl.

Its remnants will carry a flood risk this week from eastern Texas, through Arkansas, further north into the Midwest, the eastern Great Lakes and New England. 

That's where we come right here in Vermont and why local meteorologists are worried.

VERMONT EFFECTS

You might have noticed it's very warm and humid. Hasn't everyone? Beryl's remnants will bring an even bigger slug of atmospheric moisture to New England Wednesday and Thursday. 

Meanwhile, there will be some old weather fronts we'll call them boundaries for lack of a better word - hanging around that would serve as a focus to gather the moisture into torrential downpours. 

The main problem is those boundaries won't be moving much at all. That sets up the dreaded "training" in which repeated downpours move over the same spot like boxcars moving along railroad tracks. 

This puts us at risk for real trouble, again. It's certainly not definite yet, but something to keep a super sharp eye on for Wednesday and Thursday. 

For now, anyway, forecasters are focusing
the best chances of continued flooding
on Thursday around our region. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is painting an ominous picture in this morning's forecast discussion. Their worst (but plausible) case scenario is widespread two to four inches of rain, with potential streaks of four, six or even locally eight inches of rain if those training storms set up somewhere over Vermont.

"Those numbers, if they do materialize, would be comparable to the flooding event we experienced almost exactly a year ago," the NWS/South Burlington meteorologists wrote in that forecast discussion this morning. 

 That, indeed would be an unfortunately recipe for yet another Green Mountain State disaster. Not only would we have a number of cases of serious flash flooding and washouts, but it would once again possibly cause main stem river flooding.

I don't think Vermont farmers who occupy river flood plains could take another hit like they did last summer. So we'd better hope we luck out.  

And we might.  So far, anyway, this episode doesn't look like it would be as bad as last year's mess.  

It's impossible two or three days in advance like this where those boundaries would set up, and where the thickest moisture would gather. That could happen in Vermont, or off to our west, east, north or south. We don't know yet. 

It's certainly still possible we just get some pretty harmless brief downpours amid more miserable dankness and humidity Wednesday and Thursday, then we'd be done with it. Or, we could have some flash flooding problems here and there but nothing widespread. 

We'll have to wait for updated forecasts. 

PRECEDENCE

Vermont does have a history of tropical moisture colliding with fronts or boundaries to produce big time floods.

The vast majority of tropical storms and hurricanes that make landfall somewhere in the United States have very little or no effect on us here in Vermont. But a few do.  

The Great Flood of 1927 was caused by deep moisture drawn inland from an offshore tropical storm smacking up against a stalled north south aligned cold front to unleash those fatal downpours a century ago. 

Somewhat more recently, we've seen the effects distant tropical storms have had on us when the right ingredient come together.  

On July 31, 1995, weak Tropical Storm Dean splashed ashore in Texas, not all that much far north where Beryl made landfall this morning. 

Its remnant moisture streamed quickly north and east through the humid eastern United States until it encountered a stalled front across northern Vermont. The result was a disastrous flood, mostly in the Lamoille River valley on August 5-6 that year. . 

In July, 1997, a stalled weather front along the spine of the Green Mountains, combined with low pressure on Long Island, New York pumping moisture north, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Claudette, came together over Montgomery, Vermont.

The result was an intense flash flood that basically sent whitewater rapids through the heart of the town in the middle of the night.  

Not all Vermont floods are caused by tropical systems. The terrible flooding last July had nothing to do with a tropical storm. It was just a weather pattern that brought in record amounts of Atlantic moisture inland to do the job. 

BOTTOM LINE

This post isn't meant to scare anybody, but instead to alert you to what could happen. If it's enough to raise some worries among local meteorologists, it's worth spreading the word. 

I'm definitely hoping against hope that I will be able to post over the next couple days that today's column you're reading now was just a false alarm and you can get on with your life.

But just to be safe, now's the time to start thinking about what you would need to do if we had yet another flood disaster. If nothing else, it would be a good safety drill for what will be future floods in this chaotic climate changed world.

Beryl Targeting Texas Next. And It Could Cause Trouble/Worry Here In Vermont, Believe It Or Not

Beryl has regrouped and organized into a nice 
symmetrical system again, which means it has 
an opportunity to strengthen before hitting
the Texas coast tonight or early Monday. Believe
it or not this storm could have an effect 
on us here in Vermont. 

 Having trashed a number of islands in the Caribbean, and part of Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, former and soon to be hurricane Beryl is now regrouping for another potentially lethal strike. 

It's now getting its act together again over the western Gulf of Mexico so that it can next slap the coastline of Texas with hurricane conditions.  Even then, it probably won't be done. 

Eventually, what will become the remnants of Beryl could cause trouble in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, including here in Vermont.

More on that in a little bit. First things first. 

Beryl crossed the Yucatan Peninsula Friday. Hurricanes that go over land almost always weaken quickly, and Beryl was no exception.

 It limped back into the Gulf of Mexico northwest of that peninsula Friday night as a disorganized mess of a 60 mph tropical storm. 

Beryl spent Saturday trying to pump out new bursts of thunderstorms to re-form, but dry air getting sucked into the system, and fairly strong winds aloft interfered. This was expected, and Beryl stayed as a rather troubled little tropical storm.

Until now. 

WHAT BERYL'S DOING

The upper level winds are calming down quite a lot, and Beryl is finishing up the process of coughing out the dry air that got mixed in with it. 

As of late this morning, it had just started to re-strengthen, with top winds near 65 mph as of 11 a.m. today. 

Beryl looks much better organized in satellite pictures than it did yesterday, and it should regain hurricane status later today or this evening. 

This is going to be another in a series of hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast anywhere between Texas and Florida in recent years that kept getting stronger right up until the moment it hit land. 

That's always the most dangerous scenario. For one, it takes people by surprise. They hear the hurricane has, say, 80 mph while it is off the coast, so people assume that's what they'll get. Then they end up surprised and unprepared when winds and storm surges at landfall are worse than that. 

TEXAS PREP

The warnings the folks on the Texas coast keep emphasizing Beryl will be at its strongest at landfall, so be prepared. 

Texas is lucky that there's not much space between where it is now and where it is forecast to hit Texas, probably somewhere in the middle of the Texas coast.  Even though it might start to strengthen quickly, it won't have much time to do so between now and when it hits land late tonight or very tomorrow.

Still, sustained winds with this thing should be close to 90 mph at landfall, and it could surprise by becoming even stronger, After all, Beryl has a history of surprises, being by far the earliest major hurricane and earliest Category 5 on record in the Atlantic.

Though Beryl broke all kinds of early season records, a July hurricane is not unheard of in Texas. It'll be the 10th July hurricane in Texas since 1851, said hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

Texas officials have urged tourists along the coast to skedaddle by this afternoon. The outer bands of Beryl were already bringing fitful downpours and gusty winds to the coast by noon today. People in the hurricane zone should be in shelter by nightfall.

Storm surges could reach four to six feet near and just to the northeast of where Beryl makes landfall. That's a concern considering how flat the Texas coastal plain is.  Tornadoes are possible. Meteorologists expect rainfall near the path of Beryl to pile up to between five and 10 inches, with local amounts up to 15 inches.

That, of course is a real recipe for flooding. That flooding will be dangerous, for sure. But luckily not the ultimate worst case scenario.. 

Although Beryl's path is similar to catastrophic Hurricane Harvey in 2017, this won't be another Harvey. Harvey was much stronger and bigger than Beryl. Also, steering winds in the atmosphere collapsed. So Harvey just sat over southeastern Texas for days, dumping feet of rain and causing one of the worst floods in U.S. history. 

Beryl isn't one to hang around. Its forward motion has been pretty speedy since it formed last week, and that's not really going to change much.  After it hits the coast, its remnants will be out of the Lone Start State by sometime Tuesday morning, when it heads into Arkansas,.

VERMONT IMPACTS?

A rejuvenated soon to be Hurricane Beryl will hit Texas tonight
or early tomorrow. It's possible its remnants could cause
flooding in Vermont on the anniversary of last
year's catastrophic floods. 

Believe it or not, the remnants of Beryl could help create trouble in Vermont later this week.  By the time it gets into mid-Missisippi valley, it'll just be a remnant low, heading toward the Great Lakes by Friday.

But this type of system can bring boatloads of moisture north with it. Which would add to the high humidity already in place across most of the eastern United States. 

We'll already also have some stalled or slow moving boundaries - basically glorified cold fronts that don't really have any colder or drier air associated with them. 

At least parts of Vermont had a wet June, and most of Vermont had heavy rain Saturday, except for some isolated areas that missed out on the showers and storms. So the soil is pretty wet and can't handle as much rain as it would after a dry spell. 

This has all gotten the attention of the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, especially since the flood potential would hit on the exact anniversary of last summer's catastrophic floods in July 9-11.

"We are getting increasingly concerned about a potentially significant hydrologic episode right on the 1 year anniversary of last year's flooding," the NWS office in South Burlington wrote in their Sunday morning forecast discussion. 

There's a lot of questions in the forecast. The arrangement of boundaries and the richest moisture in the atmosphere midweek is to be determined. It's possible nothing bad will happen at all. Or, slightly worse, just a few spots will see enough rain to trigger some local flash flooding. 

NWS/South Burlington continued in their Sunday morning discussion: "It is certainly plausible that our region escapes next week relatively unscathed. But it is important to be prepared for the reasonable worst case scenario, which is for scattered to numerous flash flooding if we do get repeated rounds of heavy rainfall and storms to tap into the abnormally moist atmosphere. Please stay up to date with the latest forecast."

Yeah, just what we need. 

It's only Sunday, so it's a little soon to hit the panic button.  But if you're in a flood prone area, now is a good time to think about what you would do if that torrential rain were to hit. Flooding is the last thing Vermont needs right now.  So let's just hope the Beryl and its remnants have run out of unpleasant surprises. 

Quick Fourth Of July Hurricane Beryl Update: Weakening, But Still Formidable. Texas Monitors It

Hurricane Beryl still looks like it's getting disrupted
by strong upper level winds. But look closely.
It still has a pretty symmetrical core and an eye
which means the storm is still resisting
atmospheric conditions that want to weaken it faster.

 As expected, Hurricane Beryl has weakened more today, but it's still doing pretty well for itself despite strong upper level winds that want to rip it apart.  

In  satellite photos, the outer edges of it looked like a mess the afternoon, but if you looked closely, the inner core is nice and round with an eye still visible. That means some of the damage to Beryl from those winds are being deflected.

Still, Beryl is forecast to keep slowly weakening, then diminish faster as it crosses Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow. 

Then it will re-emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as a 60 mph tropical storm, at least if forecasts are correct. Could we weaker at that point, could be stronger.

After that, Beryl is expected to slowly strengthen again as it moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico. One sort of good thing is that an earlier tropical storm. Alberto, churned up that section of the Gulf of Mexico in mid-June, which makes the surface water a little cooler.

If the water is a bit cooler, it can't fuel a hurricane as much as water that is really, really warm. 

Beryl is still forecast to become a hurricane before landfall.  That landfall looks like it will be somewhere between Tampico, Mexico and Galveston, Texas Sunday or Monday. 

Category 5 Hurricane Beryl Continues To Amaze Amid Windward Island Destruction

Formidable Category 5 Hurricane Beryl late
Tuesday morning over the Caribbean. 

 Despite the idea this was impossible at the very start of July, Hurricane Beryl last night grew to a Category 5 storm - the most intense possible - with top sustained winds of an incredible 165 mph. 

This, after trashing some of the Windward Islands as a high end Category 4 yesterday with sustained winds of 150 mph. 

Category 5 hurricanes are relatively rare in the Atlantic Ocean, but have been becoming a little more common in recent years. 

However, such powerhouses were considered virtually impossible until August and September, when oceans reach their peak temperatures and atmospheric conditions are most primed to pump a hurricane to its maximum potential.

With ocean temperatures in and near the Caribbean Sea at record highs and at readings more typical for around Labor Day, Beryl was able to become the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record for so early in the season.

This, after setting records for the earliest major hurricane known to have formed east of the Windward Islands. When it was just getting its act together last week, it was also the furthest east in the Atlantic a tropical storm is known to have popped up in June.  

All this is a combination of a perfect set of conditions to make Beryl a monster, and probably climate change, which is serving to warm oceans more and more. This creates better and better incubators for hurricanes. 

DAMAGE AND FUTURE

As you might expect, Beryl devastated the islands it hit on Monday.

Says the Washington Post:

"Grenada and the nation of St. Vincent and the Grenadines were reeling from a storm that probably will be the region's most intense hurricane on record.

'In half an hour, Carriacou was flattened,' Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said Monday. 

At least one person died on St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the prime minister said Monday evening. 'There may well be more fatalities,' Ralph Gonsalves said in an address to the nation, adding that hundreds of houses had been severely damaged or destroyed in the country, including on the main island of St. Vincent."

Latest reports as of early this afternoon suggest seven deaths have already been reported in association with the storm.

Beryl has finally reached peak strength. I can't image it possibly getting any stronger anyway. But stronger upper level winds will steadily weaken Beryl as it moves west to northwest across the Caribbean Sea toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.  

The weakening trend will start this afternoon, but Beryl will still be a pretty intense hurricane as it passes over or  close by Jamaica tomorrow. By then, it will be a little less powerful than it was this morning, but still an intense, destructive hurricane. 

Beryl will eventually probably pass over the Yucatan Peninsula and menace northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. But by then it might be reduced to a tropical storm or a much less formidable hurricane than it is now. 

 

 

Soon To Be Weird, Early Season Hurricane Beryl Menaces Caribbean

Satellite view of a healthy looking Tropical Storm
Beryl early this afternoon has "that look" that suggests
it could turn into a powerful and 
dangerous early season hurricane. 

 Tropical Storm Beryl was gathering steam pretty quickly Saturday out in the open Atlantic. It's behavior seems to hint at the widely predicted very busy Atlantic hurricane season for 2024.  

As of late Saturday morning, Beryl had top winds of 65 mph as it headed toward the Windward Islands. Barbados is already under a hurricane watch, as Beryl should be near that island late Sunday or early Monday. 

Tropical storms and hurricanes absolutely adore very warm ocean water and Beryl is no exception.  The hotter the water, the better chance a storm like this will strengthen.  That's one of the reasons why forecasters were saying this will be a busy hurricane season.

Waters in most of the areas where hurricanes form are at near record high levels.

Those super warm waters make Beryl weird and very much an early bird.  It's developing in an area where hurricanes very often get their act together. But this hurricane incubator zone pretty much never produces tropical storms until late August or September.

That Beryl is forming there is a testament to how unusually hot the water is out there.

Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist who specializes in Atlantic hurricanes said Saturday Beryl is the strongest tropical storm on record to develop that far east in the Atlantic Ocean.

Normally, if you do manage to get a hurricane in late June or early July, it forms in the Gulf of Mexico, or even further south, near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. 

The hot water under Beryl means it will probably strengthen rapidly on its trek toward the Windward Islands. By the time it gets to near Barbados, its top sustained winds could reach or exceed 110 mph.  Such rapid intensification in this part of the Atlantic is pretty much unheard of early in the season is unheard of.

Once Beryl gets into the Caribbean next week, it's future strength and track are still open to question. Stronger upper level winds could slowly weaken it. We also don't know whether this will eventually threaten the United States or not. 

Meanwhile, there's other areas the National Hurricane Center is watching. Another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic is following roughly the same path as Beryl and could develop into a new tropical storm next week. 

A disturbance near the Gulf of Coast of northeastern Mexico could briefly develop into a tropical storm before it runs inland next week. 

Overall, this whole scenario in the tropical storm and hurricane zone in the Atlantic reminds me of how things usually look when the season usually is ramping up in mid-August.  It's usually pretty quiet in late June. 

This is an ominous sign that all those forecasts of a very busy and potentially destructive Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 might well come true.