Tropical Storm Melissa Forms In Caribbean; Future Track A Toss Up

The forecast track of a tropical storm or hurricane 
usually takes the form of a "cone of uncertainty."
The future track of Tropical Storm Melissa is
SO uncertain that the cone of uncertainty is a
circle, meaning it could go anywhere. 

 
was born this morning in the central Caribbean Sea, but where this storm will eventually end up is anybody's guess.

The disturbance that grew into Melissa had been rocketing westward across the Atlantic Ocean. It was moving so fast, it couldn't really develop into analyzing. 

Now, the storm's forward speed is slowing way down, so it has been able to grow into a tropical storm. As of 11 a.m. this morning top wind speeds were 50 mph.  

The National Hurricane Center alerts the public about a predicted path of a tropical storm or hurricane with something called a cone of uncertainty. 

It's called that because the graphic looks like a cone. The middle of the cone is where the official forecast is, but areas either side of the path are shaded in to reflect the possibility the storm could go to the left or right of its predicted path. 

Forecasters usually know where a tropical system is headed over the next 12 to 24 hours so the range of predicted paths is initially small. A few days out, there's more uncertainty, so the areas on a map shaded in where the system might go is wider. Hence the cone of uncertainty. 

I bring this up because today's "cone of uncertainty" for Melissa is essentially a circle. Which basically means it could go anywhere.  It's the weirdest cone of uncertainty I can remember with any tropical storm or hurricane. 

Steering winds in the atmosphere are weakening so it's hard to say which direction Melissa might go. That said, even though steering winds are weak,  there are fairly strong winds blowing the tops of Melissa's thunderstorms askew, so the storm might not strengthen all that fast. Plus, dry air might get injested into Melissa, which would also slow a strengthening trend. 

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Melissa shows it's kind of
a mess, as strong upper level winds are screwing
up the thunderstorms that power the storm. 

Whether Melissa grows into a hurricane also depends on where it goes. If it gets stuck over land, it would weaken, or at least not really strengthen. 

On the other hand, the Caribbean waters are at record warm levels for this time of year.  If it stays over the water, there's a chance this thing could get pretty strong. 

Super warm water is jet fuel for tropical systems, so if Melissa ends up growing into a pretty good size hurricane, I wouldn't be surprised.

Since Melissa will be moving so slowly, any island it nears will get incredible boatloads of rain. 

 Big flash floods and landslides are already in the forecast though this weekend in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 

A hurricane watch is also in effect in parts of Haiti. Jamaica is under a tropical storm watch.  

It's going to take a few days to figure out where Melissa is headed and whether it would be a threat to the United States. If it does eventually make it to the U.S., the most likely state to be hit would be Florida. But even there, the chance looks reasonably low at this point. 

Believe It Or Not, ANOTHER Hurricane Threat Looming?

That cluster of thunderstorms you see in the lower left
of this morning's satellite image - east of Central
America and well south of Cuba, are what forecasters
believe will become tropical storm or hurricane Sara

 It's still technically hurricane season, so you can still get such storms this time of year.

But the end of Hurricane Season 2024 is likely setting records for being busy. 

I'm saying that because meteorologists are convinced another tropical storm or hurricane will form in the Caribbean Sea very soon. And it could get strong, according to some computer projections. If and when it does get going, they'll name it Sara. 

The problem now is - since the thing hasn't officially formed yet -  we don't yet know where Wannabe Sara will go and how much of a threat it's going to become. 

But yes, it's possible it could hit Florida, but were way too early to start panicking over that possibility. It's just as plausible that Wannabe Sara would entire miss Florida.

 Or hit, but be in such a weakened state by the time it gets there that it wouldn't be that big of a deal. Still, a worrying percentage of the computer model forecasts bring this thing into Florida next week. So stay tuned to this bat channel.

After three strikes by destructive hurricanes this year (Debby, Helene, Milton), Florida could certainly do without another such storm. Two other hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. this year. (Beryl in Texas, Francine in Louisiana). Five U.S. hurricane strikes in one year is very rare.

CURRENT SITUATION

As of this morning, Wannabe Sara hadn't organized into anything like a tropical storm yet. It didn't look like it had a noticeable circulation. But the mess of clouds with this thing was getting better organized. It's over water that's much warmer than usual for this time of year. And the type of strong upper level winds that could smack down a potential tropical storm just aren't there. 

Climate change has helped make ocean water in the tropics warmer than in the past and extends the warmth later into the season. So I guess we shouldn't be all that surprised that given the right conditions, a late season hurricane becomes more likely. 

Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes are scheduled to fly into this thing later today to have a look under the hood. That'll provide a lot more data on what's going on with Wannabe Sara.

Many forecasts seem to have Wannabe Sara meandering in the western Caribbean Sea for awhile later this week and weekend before heading north. If it stays over water and threads the needle on its northward path over water between Cancun and Cuba, it could enter the Gulf of Mexico as a major, threat.

If Wannabe Sara bumps into or over land in Central America and Mexico, then it would be a weaker, lesser threat later on. 

BUSY LATE SEASON

Since late October, there have already been three tropical storms or hurricanes, which is awfully busy for a time of year when hurricane activity  usually wanes. Tiny Hurricane Oscar made landfall in eastern Cuba back on October 19 with top winds of 80 mph. That storm caused damage in Cuba and parts of the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Patty (which spent most of its life as a hybrid subtropical storm) harassed the Azores in early November. Its location was oddly far north and east in the Atlantic, especially for that late in the season.

Then, category 3 Hurricane Rafael made landfall in western Cuba with top winds of 115 mph and caused a lot of damage. It then moved into the central Gulf of Mexico and attained top winds of 120 mph, a record strength for such a late season hurricane in that location. Luckily, Rafael then dissipated without ever hitting land again. 

Category 5 Hurricane Beryl Continues To Amaze Amid Windward Island Destruction

Formidable Category 5 Hurricane Beryl late
Tuesday morning over the Caribbean. 

 Despite the idea this was impossible at the very start of July, Hurricane Beryl last night grew to a Category 5 storm - the most intense possible - with top sustained winds of an incredible 165 mph. 

This, after trashing some of the Windward Islands as a high end Category 4 yesterday with sustained winds of 150 mph. 

Category 5 hurricanes are relatively rare in the Atlantic Ocean, but have been becoming a little more common in recent years. 

However, such powerhouses were considered virtually impossible until August and September, when oceans reach their peak temperatures and atmospheric conditions are most primed to pump a hurricane to its maximum potential.

With ocean temperatures in and near the Caribbean Sea at record highs and at readings more typical for around Labor Day, Beryl was able to become the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record for so early in the season.

This, after setting records for the earliest major hurricane known to have formed east of the Windward Islands. When it was just getting its act together last week, it was also the furthest east in the Atlantic a tropical storm is known to have popped up in June.  

All this is a combination of a perfect set of conditions to make Beryl a monster, and probably climate change, which is serving to warm oceans more and more. This creates better and better incubators for hurricanes. 

DAMAGE AND FUTURE

As you might expect, Beryl devastated the islands it hit on Monday.

Says the Washington Post:

"Grenada and the nation of St. Vincent and the Grenadines were reeling from a storm that probably will be the region's most intense hurricane on record.

'In half an hour, Carriacou was flattened,' Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said Monday. 

At least one person died on St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the prime minister said Monday evening. 'There may well be more fatalities,' Ralph Gonsalves said in an address to the nation, adding that hundreds of houses had been severely damaged or destroyed in the country, including on the main island of St. Vincent."

Latest reports as of early this afternoon suggest seven deaths have already been reported in association with the storm.

Beryl has finally reached peak strength. I can't image it possibly getting any stronger anyway. But stronger upper level winds will steadily weaken Beryl as it moves west to northwest across the Caribbean Sea toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.  

The weakening trend will start this afternoon, but Beryl will still be a pretty intense hurricane as it passes over or  close by Jamaica tomorrow. By then, it will be a little less powerful than it was this morning, but still an intense, destructive hurricane. 

Beryl will eventually probably pass over the Yucatan Peninsula and menace northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. But by then it might be reduced to a tropical storm or a much less formidable hurricane than it is now. 

 

 

Soon To Be Weird, Early Season Hurricane Beryl Menaces Caribbean

Satellite view of a healthy looking Tropical Storm
Beryl early this afternoon has "that look" that suggests
it could turn into a powerful and 
dangerous early season hurricane. 

 Tropical Storm Beryl was gathering steam pretty quickly Saturday out in the open Atlantic. It's behavior seems to hint at the widely predicted very busy Atlantic hurricane season for 2024.  

As of late Saturday morning, Beryl had top winds of 65 mph as it headed toward the Windward Islands. Barbados is already under a hurricane watch, as Beryl should be near that island late Sunday or early Monday. 

Tropical storms and hurricanes absolutely adore very warm ocean water and Beryl is no exception.  The hotter the water, the better chance a storm like this will strengthen.  That's one of the reasons why forecasters were saying this will be a busy hurricane season.

Waters in most of the areas where hurricanes form are at near record high levels.

Those super warm waters make Beryl weird and very much an early bird.  It's developing in an area where hurricanes very often get their act together. But this hurricane incubator zone pretty much never produces tropical storms until late August or September.

That Beryl is forming there is a testament to how unusually hot the water is out there.

Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist who specializes in Atlantic hurricanes said Saturday Beryl is the strongest tropical storm on record to develop that far east in the Atlantic Ocean.

Normally, if you do manage to get a hurricane in late June or early July, it forms in the Gulf of Mexico, or even further south, near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. 

The hot water under Beryl means it will probably strengthen rapidly on its trek toward the Windward Islands. By the time it gets to near Barbados, its top sustained winds could reach or exceed 110 mph.  Such rapid intensification in this part of the Atlantic is pretty much unheard of early in the season is unheard of.

Once Beryl gets into the Caribbean next week, it's future strength and track are still open to question. Stronger upper level winds could slowly weaken it. We also don't know whether this will eventually threaten the United States or not. 

Meanwhile, there's other areas the National Hurricane Center is watching. Another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic is following roughly the same path as Beryl and could develop into a new tropical storm next week. 

A disturbance near the Gulf of Coast of northeastern Mexico could briefly develop into a tropical storm before it runs inland next week. 

Overall, this whole scenario in the tropical storm and hurricane zone in the Atlantic reminds me of how things usually look when the season usually is ramping up in mid-August.  It's usually pretty quiet in late June. 

This is an ominous sign that all those forecasts of a very busy and potentially destructive Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 might well come true. 

 

A Break From The Heat And Needed Rain. Elsewhere, Elsa

Drought persists and even expanded a little bit in 
Vermont during the past week. It's raining in most
of the state today, so that's a piece of good news! 

 If you needed a break from the heat of summer, this is your weekend in Vermont.

You'll also need to dodge some showers, but that's OK we needed the rain. Bonus: The rainiest day of the stretch is today. 

 You might have to deal with some scattered showers tomorrow, but you should go on with planned outdoor activities. Sunday looks even a little better.  

Plus, we don't have to deal with any hot-tish weather until Monday or Tuesday. 

Most of us here in Vermont started today in the low 60s and it was still slightly humid, but temperatures aren't really going to go anywhere today. 

Highs will stay in the 60s to around 70, held down by an overcast, cool northeasterly breezes and quite a few showers around. 

Those temperatures aren't all that odd for a summer cool spell, but they are pretty far below normal, considering highs are usually around 80 degrees this time of year. 

Most areas of Vermont got some badly needed rain overnight and early this morning. The exception, as usual, is extreme northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. Luckily, that dry area got a good band of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening. 

Some rain will probably spread into the far north today, but they'll get less than the rest of Vermont. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says they're expecting a decent half inch to inch of rain in the Green Mountain State today, but something closer to a quarter inch up by St Albans and Newport and places up north like that. 

Any rain would be great in this continued dry year. We've been keeping tabs on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor reports, which come out each Thursday.

Yesterday's report showed moderate drought which had been in eastern Vermont extending westward into parts of northwestern Vermont.  All but the far southwest corner of the Green Mountain State was at the very least abnormally dry, according to the report. 

It will take more than today's rain to solve this problem, but any rain is good rain at this point. 

Saturday stays cool, too, with scattered showers around. There might be peeks of sun, but with a cold pool of air aloft, there will be more than enough instability for showers, too. Most of us will stay in the 60s Saturday for the second day in a row. 

Sunday looks sunnier, and a bit warmer, but still cool for the season - temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s by then. 

The cool opening to this July is a big departure from recent Julys, which have been quite hot. In Burlington, Vermont, three of the top four hottest Julys were 2018, 2019 and 2020.

You shouldn't necessarily get used to the cool weather. There will be a brief squirt of hot air Tuesday before another cold front arrives.

But it's still unknown how much oomph that cold front will have, and any cool air that it brings looks to be pretty brief. Long range forecasts call for sustained very warm, humid weather to resume about a week from now. 

HURRICANE ELSA

Tropical Storm Elsa just got upgraded to a hurricane this morning as it battered Barbados this morning.

Elsa is the first hurricane of the young season and the first tropical storm of the season to really mean business.  It's also the first hurricane season to have a fifth tropical storm form this early. 

Hurricane Elsa, whether it's still a hurricane or a strong
tropical storm, poses a potential threat to 
Florida early next week 

All the previous tropical storms this season were minor, as is usually the case before August. 

The last one, Danny, was basically a glorified cluster of thunderstorms that got just windy and circular enough earlier this week to qualify as a tropical storm before splashing ashore in South Carolina without fanfare and dissipating. 

Elsa is another story. It formed in the eastern/central Atlantic, in a place where tropical storms and hurricanes don't normally form until August or later. The water there is usually too cool this early in the season and the atmosphere normally isn't right, either 

But things are topsy-turvy in the world and now we're dealing with Hurricane Elsa. 

Elsa became a tropical storm a couple days ago. It was the earliest This storm looks like it will become a threat to Hispaniola, and Cuba by the weekend, and maybe to Florida by early next week.  That's potentially really not good for those working on that condominium tower collapse in Surfside, Florida. 

Forecasting the future strength of tropical storms and hurricanes is always a challenge, and Elsa is no exception. Few anticipated it would become a hurricane by now. 

For what it's worth, depending upon whether the islands Elsa encounters disrupts its circulation, or whether the atmosphere remains good to maintain the storm, it's probably best to expect at least a strong tropical storm in or near Florida early next week.