Tropical Storm Melissa Forms In Caribbean; Future Track A Toss Up

The forecast track of a tropical storm or hurricane 
usually takes the form of a "cone of uncertainty."
The future track of Tropical Storm Melissa is
SO uncertain that the cone of uncertainty is a
circle, meaning it could go anywhere. 

 
was born this morning in the central Caribbean Sea, but where this storm will eventually end up is anybody's guess.

The disturbance that grew into Melissa had been rocketing westward across the Atlantic Ocean. It was moving so fast, it couldn't really develop into analyzing. 

Now, the storm's forward speed is slowing way down, so it has been able to grow into a tropical storm. As of 11 a.m. this morning top wind speeds were 50 mph.  

The National Hurricane Center alerts the public about a predicted path of a tropical storm or hurricane with something called a cone of uncertainty. 

It's called that because the graphic looks like a cone. The middle of the cone is where the official forecast is, but areas either side of the path are shaded in to reflect the possibility the storm could go to the left or right of its predicted path. 

Forecasters usually know where a tropical system is headed over the next 12 to 24 hours so the range of predicted paths is initially small. A few days out, there's more uncertainty, so the areas on a map shaded in where the system might go is wider. Hence the cone of uncertainty. 

I bring this up because today's "cone of uncertainty" for Melissa is essentially a circle. Which basically means it could go anywhere.  It's the weirdest cone of uncertainty I can remember with any tropical storm or hurricane. 

Steering winds in the atmosphere are weakening so it's hard to say which direction Melissa might go. That said, even though steering winds are weak,  there are fairly strong winds blowing the tops of Melissa's thunderstorms askew, so the storm might not strengthen all that fast. Plus, dry air might get injested into Melissa, which would also slow a strengthening trend. 

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Melissa shows it's kind of
a mess, as strong upper level winds are screwing
up the thunderstorms that power the storm. 

Whether Melissa grows into a hurricane also depends on where it goes. If it gets stuck over land, it would weaken, or at least not really strengthen. 

On the other hand, the Caribbean waters are at record warm levels for this time of year.  If it stays over the water, there's a chance this thing could get pretty strong. 

Super warm water is jet fuel for tropical systems, so if Melissa ends up growing into a pretty good size hurricane, I wouldn't be surprised.

Since Melissa will be moving so slowly, any island it nears will get incredible boatloads of rain. 

 Big flash floods and landslides are already in the forecast though this weekend in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 

A hurricane watch is also in effect in parts of Haiti. Jamaica is under a tropical storm watch.  

It's going to take a few days to figure out where Melissa is headed and whether it would be a threat to the United States. If it does eventually make it to the U.S., the most likely state to be hit would be Florida. But even there, the chance looks reasonably low at this point. 

Hurricane Elsa Update: Hispaniola, Cuba, Florida Still Targets

Satellite view of Hurricane Elsa Friday after in trashed
Barbabos. Image from NOAA.

Early Season Hurricane Elsa was continuing its march through the Caribbean Sea this morning, having trashed Barbados and setting its sights on Hispaniola, Cuba and Florida. 

Surprising to me, anyway, given its location, this was the first hurricane in more than 60 years to strike Barbados. Numerous homes there collapsed or lost their roofs, and there was widespread additional damage there and on nearby St. Lucia. So far, no deaths have been reported. 

Elsa's forward motion is around 30 mph, which is awfully fast for a hurricane. Top winds with the storm were 75 mph, making it barely a hurricane. It's a little less powerful than yesterday, when top winds were 85 mph.

Elsa's forward speed is forecast to slow down somewhat today and tomorrow. Elsa should be near the southern coast of Hispaniola tonight, and be affecting Jamaica and Cuba tomorrow. By Monday and Tuesday, South Florida should be feeling the effects of Elsa. 

There's still a lot of questions as to how strong Elsa will be in the coming days. If it interacts a lot with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, it could weak a lot.  If it stays in the open water south of those islands for awhile, it could maintain most of its strength.

It'll weaken heading north over Cuba, but how much is the question. And will Elsa be able to restrengthen a bit once it emerges into the water south of the Florida Keys?

And what about Florida?  We don't know if Elsa will target the area around Miami, or head west up toward Tampa, or plow right into central Florida.  In any event, Floridians ought to be preparing for some coastal storm surges and especially inland flooding.

It's been wet in much of Florida lately and the ground in many spots is pretty saturated. If Elsa dumps some heavy rain around there, we could be looking at plenty of floods. We'll see.

Beyond Florida, Elsa will move toward the northeast, but it's still way too soon to have a good handle on whether it will affect New England, and if so, how.