Forecasters Worred Tropical Storm Melissa Could Turn Into Catastrophic Caribbean Hurricane

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Melissa starting
to get its act together over the Caribbean today. 

When we last checked in on Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean Sea two days ago, it was a fairly weak and disorganized mess with a highly uncertain future. 

Today, Melissa is still a weak system, still in the central Caribbean, still rather disorganized and still facing an uncertain future. In fact, winds with Melissa were just 45 mph, a bit less than they were on Tuesday. 

So no news, right?

Oh, but there is news, and it's ominous. 

Here's the deal:

Strong winds aloft have been keeping Melissa in check, blowing apart the thunderstorms Melissa needs to sustain itself and grow. 

Those winds are weakening, and as of late morning, Melissa was showing signs of the monster it might well become.

Thunderstorms started erupting on the storm's west side, not just to the east. Also, some of Melissa's clouds were showing curved, banded shapes. These are signs those strong upper level winds are starting to subside.  Meteorologists believe those upper level winds will continue to die down. 

Tropical Storm Melissa is sitting over record warm Caribbean Sea waters. That makes Melissa a ticking time bomb, ready to go off.  

The question is, where will the bomb go off? 

The official forecast as Melissa slowly growing stronger later today into early Saturday, then really going off to the races to become a major hurricane. A few computer models have it going to Category 5, which would mean top sustained winds of at least 160 mph. 

For now, the National Hurricane Center isn't going that far. But they do have official forecast has Melissa with top sustained winds at 130 by Sunday.

Where Melissa will go is still super hard to figure out. Much harder than usual for a hurricane. There's a complex dance of other weather systems far to its north that will control where it goes. 

This time of year, almost every time a storm goes by to the north, it will try to "pick up" a tropical storm and fling it northward through the Atlantic.  Not every storm can "reach" a Caribbean hurricane. In those cases, the hurricane stays well to the south. 

A sort of storm, a weak thing near the Bahamas is trying to tug on Melissa, which is why it's ever so slowly crawling northward. It'll keep doing that through about Friday, the National Hurricane Center thinks, at a pace that this 63 year old writer could easily outrun -really outwalk -  it if Melissa were a person. 

The disturbance near the Bahamas will zip away, and forecasters think this will make Melissa make a sharp left turn and intensify. When it makes its left turn - if it does - will have a huge effect on how bad things get in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic,and maybe Cuba.

At this point, Jamaica looks like it might really be in jeopardy. Melissa is already coming close enough to Hispaniola and Jamaica to raise the threat of flooding and mudslides. If a powerful Hurricane Melissa hits Jamaica, that would be absolutely catastrophic. 

The forecast is really complicated, so Melissa can, and probably will pulls some surprises. It could keep heading north to blast Haiti or maybe eastern Cuba. It could turn toward the north or northeast near or just west of Jamaica, putting western Cuba and the Bahamas in the crosshairs. 

There's a chance it could hit Florida, but for now, most computer models have Melissa missing the United States. There's also a chance Melissa could keep plowing west toward Central America.

One of the few certainties about Melissa is that it will continue to move incredibly slowly. So it's going to be a problem for maybe a week or more.  

This looks like a really dangerous one for somebody. 

Tropical Storm Melissa Forms In Caribbean; Future Track A Toss Up

The forecast track of a tropical storm or hurricane 
usually takes the form of a "cone of uncertainty."
The future track of Tropical Storm Melissa is
SO uncertain that the cone of uncertainty is a
circle, meaning it could go anywhere. 

 
was born this morning in the central Caribbean Sea, but where this storm will eventually end up is anybody's guess.

The disturbance that grew into Melissa had been rocketing westward across the Atlantic Ocean. It was moving so fast, it couldn't really develop into analyzing. 

Now, the storm's forward speed is slowing way down, so it has been able to grow into a tropical storm. As of 11 a.m. this morning top wind speeds were 50 mph.  

The National Hurricane Center alerts the public about a predicted path of a tropical storm or hurricane with something called a cone of uncertainty. 

It's called that because the graphic looks like a cone. The middle of the cone is where the official forecast is, but areas either side of the path are shaded in to reflect the possibility the storm could go to the left or right of its predicted path. 

Forecasters usually know where a tropical system is headed over the next 12 to 24 hours so the range of predicted paths is initially small. A few days out, there's more uncertainty, so the areas on a map shaded in where the system might go is wider. Hence the cone of uncertainty. 

I bring this up because today's "cone of uncertainty" for Melissa is essentially a circle. Which basically means it could go anywhere.  It's the weirdest cone of uncertainty I can remember with any tropical storm or hurricane. 

Steering winds in the atmosphere are weakening so it's hard to say which direction Melissa might go. That said, even though steering winds are weak,  there are fairly strong winds blowing the tops of Melissa's thunderstorms askew, so the storm might not strengthen all that fast. Plus, dry air might get injested into Melissa, which would also slow a strengthening trend. 

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Melissa shows it's kind of
a mess, as strong upper level winds are screwing
up the thunderstorms that power the storm. 

Whether Melissa grows into a hurricane also depends on where it goes. If it gets stuck over land, it would weaken, or at least not really strengthen. 

On the other hand, the Caribbean waters are at record warm levels for this time of year.  If it stays over the water, there's a chance this thing could get pretty strong. 

Super warm water is jet fuel for tropical systems, so if Melissa ends up growing into a pretty good size hurricane, I wouldn't be surprised.

Since Melissa will be moving so slowly, any island it nears will get incredible boatloads of rain. 

 Big flash floods and landslides are already in the forecast though this weekend in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 

A hurricane watch is also in effect in parts of Haiti. Jamaica is under a tropical storm watch.  

It's going to take a few days to figure out where Melissa is headed and whether it would be a threat to the United States. If it does eventually make it to the U.S., the most likely state to be hit would be Florida. But even there, the chance looks reasonably low at this point.