A Break From The Heat And Needed Rain. Elsewhere, Elsa

Drought persists and even expanded a little bit in 
Vermont during the past week. It's raining in most
of the state today, so that's a piece of good news! 

 If you needed a break from the heat of summer, this is your weekend in Vermont.

You'll also need to dodge some showers, but that's OK we needed the rain. Bonus: The rainiest day of the stretch is today. 

 You might have to deal with some scattered showers tomorrow, but you should go on with planned outdoor activities. Sunday looks even a little better.  

Plus, we don't have to deal with any hot-tish weather until Monday or Tuesday. 

Most of us here in Vermont started today in the low 60s and it was still slightly humid, but temperatures aren't really going to go anywhere today. 

Highs will stay in the 60s to around 70, held down by an overcast, cool northeasterly breezes and quite a few showers around. 

Those temperatures aren't all that odd for a summer cool spell, but they are pretty far below normal, considering highs are usually around 80 degrees this time of year. 

Most areas of Vermont got some badly needed rain overnight and early this morning. The exception, as usual, is extreme northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. Luckily, that dry area got a good band of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening. 

Some rain will probably spread into the far north today, but they'll get less than the rest of Vermont. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says they're expecting a decent half inch to inch of rain in the Green Mountain State today, but something closer to a quarter inch up by St Albans and Newport and places up north like that. 

Any rain would be great in this continued dry year. We've been keeping tabs on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor reports, which come out each Thursday.

Yesterday's report showed moderate drought which had been in eastern Vermont extending westward into parts of northwestern Vermont.  All but the far southwest corner of the Green Mountain State was at the very least abnormally dry, according to the report. 

It will take more than today's rain to solve this problem, but any rain is good rain at this point. 

Saturday stays cool, too, with scattered showers around. There might be peeks of sun, but with a cold pool of air aloft, there will be more than enough instability for showers, too. Most of us will stay in the 60s Saturday for the second day in a row. 

Sunday looks sunnier, and a bit warmer, but still cool for the season - temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s by then. 

The cool opening to this July is a big departure from recent Julys, which have been quite hot. In Burlington, Vermont, three of the top four hottest Julys were 2018, 2019 and 2020.

You shouldn't necessarily get used to the cool weather. There will be a brief squirt of hot air Tuesday before another cold front arrives.

But it's still unknown how much oomph that cold front will have, and any cool air that it brings looks to be pretty brief. Long range forecasts call for sustained very warm, humid weather to resume about a week from now. 

HURRICANE ELSA

Tropical Storm Elsa just got upgraded to a hurricane this morning as it battered Barbados this morning.

Elsa is the first hurricane of the young season and the first tropical storm of the season to really mean business.  It's also the first hurricane season to have a fifth tropical storm form this early. 

Hurricane Elsa, whether it's still a hurricane or a strong
tropical storm, poses a potential threat to 
Florida early next week 

All the previous tropical storms this season were minor, as is usually the case before August. 

The last one, Danny, was basically a glorified cluster of thunderstorms that got just windy and circular enough earlier this week to qualify as a tropical storm before splashing ashore in South Carolina without fanfare and dissipating. 

Elsa is another story. It formed in the eastern/central Atlantic, in a place where tropical storms and hurricanes don't normally form until August or later. The water there is usually too cool this early in the season and the atmosphere normally isn't right, either 

But things are topsy-turvy in the world and now we're dealing with Hurricane Elsa. 

Elsa became a tropical storm a couple days ago. It was the earliest This storm looks like it will become a threat to Hispaniola, and Cuba by the weekend, and maybe to Florida by early next week.  That's potentially really not good for those working on that condominium tower collapse in Surfside, Florida. 

Forecasting the future strength of tropical storms and hurricanes is always a challenge, and Elsa is no exception. Few anticipated it would become a hurricane by now. 

For what it's worth, depending upon whether the islands Elsa encounters disrupts its circulation, or whether the atmosphere remains good to maintain the storm, it's probably best to expect at least a strong tropical storm in or near Florida early next week.